US Skaters 2024-25 Season Potential Assignments

[haribobo]

This is the time of year I like to prognosticate based on Nationals and the season so far.

WOMEN
2 GP - Levito, Ziegler, Thorngren, Glenn (all currently in top 24)
1 GP- Tennell, Seo, Everhardt, Shin, Starr, Lin-Gracey (unless staying jr)
JGP- Josephine Lee, Sherry Zhang, Logan Higase-Chen, Keira Hilbelink, Mia Kalin, Soho Lee, Cleo Park, maybe Emilia Nemirovsky, and Annika Chao, Katie Shen
Sr B- Sonja Hilmer, Wren Warne-Jacobsen

 

[Karen-W]

I think any age-eligible women who have been on the JGP this year (Sarah & Elyce) should absolutely move up to senior next season. We saw what happened to Ilia in 2022, so they need to establish themselves as seniors now in order to be part of the conversation for the Olympic team in 2026.

Your list looks pretty reasonable to me.

 

[Karen-W]

Soooo... @haribobo - what are your projections for dance & pairs?

DANCE -
2 GP - Chock/Bates, Carreira/Ponomarenko, Green/Parsons, Bratti/Somerville, Pate/Bye, Brown/Brown, Zingas/Kolesnik, Neset/Markelov
1 GP - Flores/Desyatov, Wolfkostin/Tsarevski
2 JGP - Hauer/Starr, Peal/Peal, Mullen/Mullen, Ilin/Cain + Carhart/Horovyi if they're healthy & still together
1 JGP - Cui/Eckert, Epps/Gilman, Renzi/Lissauer
Senior Bs - Pedersen/Chen, Ling/Wein, Bland/Sperry

PAIRS -
2 GP - Chan/Howe (if they don't compete at Worlds they can use the Returning Team clause to get 2 GPs), Kam/O'Shea, Plazas/Fernandez, Liu/Nagy
1 GP - Efimova/Mitrofanov, McBeath/Parkman (USFS will give them host spots at SkAm)
Senior Bs - Martins/Bedard (they're 30 on the SB list and further down on the WS list so I think it will be hard for them to get a GP)
2 JGP - Flores/Wang, Williams/Lewer (if the age max is raised)
1 JGP - Zheng/Deng, Carpenter/Maravilla, Moss/Jakuby, Park/Griffin, Jarmoc/Witkowski, Taich/Chapa (if the age max is raised)
**JGP spots could prove tricky unless Flores/Wang can finish top 2 at JWC

 

[dancing_on_ice]

Soooo... @haribobo - what are your projections for dance & pairs?

DANCE -
2 GP - Chock/Bates, Carreira/Ponomarenko, Green/Parsons, Bratti/Somerville, Pate/Bye, Brown/Brown, Zingas/Kolesnik, Neset/Markelov
1 GP - Flores/Desyatov, Wolfkostin/Tsarevski
2 JGP - Hauer/Starr, Peal/Peal, Mullen/Mullen, Ilin/Cain + Carhart/Horovyi if they're healthy & still together
1 JGP - Cui/Eckert, Epps/Gilman, Renzi/Lissauer
Senior Bs - Pedersen/Chen, Ling/Wein, Bland/Sperry

PAIRS -
2 GP - Chan/Howe (if they don't compete at Worlds they can use the Returning Team clause to get 2 GPs), Kam/O'Shea, Plazas/Fernandez, Liu/Nagy
1 GP - Efimova/Mitrofanov, McBeath/Parkman (USFS will give them host spots at SkAm)
Senior Bs - Martins/Bedard (they're 30 on the SB list and further down on the WS list so I think it will be hard for them to get a GP)
2 JGP - Flores/Wang, Williams/Lewer (if the age max is raised)
1 JGP - Zheng/Deng, Carpenter/Maravilla, Moss/Jakuby, Park/Griffin, Jarmoc/Witkowski, Taich/Chapa (if the age max is raised)
**JGP spots could prove tricky unless Flores/Wang can finish top 2 at JWC

Carhart/Horovyii age out this season. Wouldn't be surprised if they're going to switch countries. Flores/Desyatov are currently in the top 24 season's best and they have the chance to up their PB a bit at Egna Dance Trophy. If they stay in the top 24, they'll get 1 GP, and then Wolfkostin/Tsarevski will probably get the SkAm host spot. If FD fall out of the top 24 though, it'll be another FD and WT fight for the SkAm host spot.

 

[Karen-W]

Carhart/Horovyii age out this season. Wouldn't be surprised if they're going to switch countries. Flores/Desyatov are currently in the top 24 season's best and they have the chance to up their PB a bit at Egna Dance Trophy. If they stay in the top 24, they'll get 1 GP, and then Wolfkostin/Tsarevski will probably get the SkAm host spot. If FD fall out of the top 24 though, it'll be another FD and WT fight for the SkAm host spot.

Egna Dance Trophy doesn't count for SB - and SB Top 24 is what guarantees 1 GP. I expect the USFS will wheel & deal to ensure that both FlorDes and WolfTsar get 1 GP on the initial assignments list.

 

[AngieNikodinovLove (ANL)]

Senior Bs - Martins/Bedard (they're 30 on the SB list and further down on the WS list so I think it will be hard for them to get a GP)

I predicy by the time September rolls around they will comfortably have two spots

 

[Karen-W]

I predicy by the time September rolls around they will comfortably have two spots

Not likely. There are a LOT of teams ahead of them on both the SB and WS lists and there are only 8 spots available per GP for a total of 48. So, let's subtract from there.

The Top 10 at Worlds are guaranteed 2 each. 48-20 = 28 remaining
Likely Top 10 = Miura/Kihara, Stellato-Dudek/Deschamps, Hase/Volodin, Conti/Macii, Metelkina/Berulava, Beccari/Guarise, Pereira/Michaud, Pavlova/Sviatchenko, Peng/Wang, and Chan/Howe

Top 24 on SB & WS are guaranteed 1 each. 28-18 = 10 remaining
Remaining teams on either of these lists that don't finish Top 10 at Worlds = Ghilardi/Ambrosini, Golubeva/Giotopolous Moore, Hocke/Kunkel, Kam/O'Shea, Liu/Nagy, Danilova/Tsiba, Laurin/Ethier, Kovalev/Kovalev, Vaananen/Clerici, Plazas/Fernandez, McIntosh/Mimar, Holichenko/Darenskiy, Zhang/Yang, Vaipan-Law/Digby, Valesi/Piazza, Sierova/Khobta, Roscher/Schuster, Caldara/Maglio

Of the 10 spots left - those are all going to be host spots -
SkAm - 2 (Efimova/Mitrofanov and McBeath/Parkman)
SCI - 2 (Laurin/Ethier 2nd assignment & 1 TBD)
GPdF - 2 (Kovalevs 2nd assignment & Piegad/Strekalin)
NHK - 1 (Nagaoka/Moriguchi)
GPHelsinki - 1 (Vaananen/Clerici 2nd assignment)
COC - 2 (Zhang/Yang 2nd assignment & 1 TBD)

I'm not even sure, at this point that ANY team outside of the Worlds Top 10 will get 2 assignments right out of the gate and any team that is on both the SB and & WS Top 24 is going to be prioritized for a 2nd assignment ahead of any other team - the higher on the SB list gets you higher on the Alternates list. Teams like GhiAmbr, GoluGM, HocKun, KamOSh, LiuNagy, DanTsi, PlaFern and McIMim will get a 2nd assignment before MarBed, etc. But the good thing about this is that it will make the Challengers and other Senior Bs with Pairs much more competitive events.

 

[Ena Grins]

DANCE -
2 GP - Chock/Bates, Carreira/Ponomarenko, Green/Parsons, Bratti/Somerville, Pate/Bye, Brown/Brown, Zingas/Kolesnik, Neset/Markelov
1 GP - Flores/Desyatov, Wolfkostin/Tsarevski
2 JGP - Hauer/Starr, Peal/Peal, Mullen/Mullen, Ilin/Cain + Carhart/Horovyi if they're healthy & still together
1 JGP - Cui/Eckert, Epps/Gilman, Renzi/Lissauer
Senior Bs - Pedersen/Chen, Ling/Wein, Bland/Sperry

Interesting - I really thought we had more dance teams aging out of the JGP.

 

[dancing_on_ice]

Interesting - I really thought we had more dance teams aging out of the JGP.

Neset/Markelov, Peals, Hauer/Starr, Mullens, and Cui/Eckert will all be aging out at the end of next season (though Neset/Markelov will likely be moving up at the end of this season)

 

[her grace]

N/M. I misunderstood.

 

[haribobo]

MEN
2 GP - Malinin, Torgashev (borderline 1 or 2), Camden (borderline 1 or 2), Brown (if competing)
1 GP- Naumov, Martynov (Skate America?), Sanchez (Skate America?), maybe Tomoki and Ma
JGP- Taira Shinohara, Lucius Kazanecki, Aleksandr Fegan, Nicholas Brooks, Lorenzo Elano, Kirk Haugeto
Sr B- Paniot, Endo, Kovar, Samohin, Kapeikis, Broussard, Strommer

 

[Karen-W]

MEN
2 GP - Malinin, Torgashev (borderline 1 or 2), Camden (borderline 1 or 2), Brown (if competing)
1 GP- Naumov, Martynov (Skate America?), Sanchez (Skate America?), maybe Tomoki and Ma
JGP- Taira Shinohara, Beck Strommer, Lucius Kazanecki, Aleksandr Fegan, Nicholas Brooks, Lorenzo Elano, Kirk Haugeto
Sr B- Paniot, Endo, Kovar, Samohin, Kapeikis, Broussard

Camden's chances at 2 GPs lie solely in how well he skates at Worlds. He is more than capable of finishing top 12 and guaranteeing himself 2. He is also more than capable of bumping his SB up enough along with earning enough WS points to likely guarantee 2 even if he does miss the top 12 in Montreal.

The rest I agree with.

 

[ice coverage]

I am very much a fan of Beck Strommer, but he will not be eligible for JGPs next season.
He will turn nineteen this month, and I look forward to his senior career.

 

[AngieNikodinovLove (ANL)]

I am very much a fan of Beck Strommer

I am very much a fan of the name Beck

 

[her grace]

I hope Broussard goes back to the JGP and rebuilds his confidence and solidifies his technique.

 

[peibeck]

Camden's chances at 2 GPs lie solely in how well he skates at Worlds. He is more than capable of finishing top 12 and guaranteeing himself 2.

We all know what he's capable of, but still you tempt the skate gods this way?!?!?