The Shibutanis Thread 6: Paradise Found

Mrs. P said:
ETA: Interesting that people think that Maia would make that statement without Alex’s buy-in.
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Sigh. I would love to believe that Maia & Alex will compete the next quadrennium. I am the first to say that I always find it a mistake to believe a dance team will retire. And, as I have said a multitude of times, I believe the Shibs are capable of absolutely anything in the sport. I believe it.

I also believe in cautious optimism with all athletes that skip a Worlds for any reason other than injury. I think Maia & Alex think through what they say in public more than most. I'm sure he's fine with what she said. But she said she has her sights set on 2022. That's not the same as saying, "We are planning to compete through 2022." That would be a step further, and if the Shibs are planning to do so, I'm sure they'll tell us. Maybe they'll tell us tomorrow. If they do, great. But I'll stick with cautious optimism.

In fact, I'll stick with it until they set foot back in competition. That doesn't mean I won't be rooting for them & have faith in them 100%. I've had it since 2007, and that's not about to change now;).
 
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Dobre said:
Sigh. I would love to believe that Maia & Alex will compete the next quadrennium. I am the first to say that I always find it a mistake to believe a dance team will retire. And, as I have said a multitude of times, I believe the Shibs are capable of absolutely anything in the sport. I believe it.

I also believe in cautious optimism with all athletes that skip a Worlds for any reason other than injury. I think Maia & Alex think through what they say in public more than most. I'm sure he's fine with what she said. But she said she has her sights set on 2022. That's not the same as saying, "We are planning to compete through 2022." That would be a step further, and if the Shibs are planning to do so, I'm sure they'll tell us. Maybe they'll tell us tomorrow. If they do, great. But I'll stick with cautious optimism.

In fact, I'll stick with it until they set foot back in competition. That doesn't mean I won't be rooting for them & have faith in them 100%. I've had it since 2007, and that's not about to change now;).
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I think the "she" rather then "we" is because the question was directed at her. I totally understand your point of view, but IMO if she says she's going for 2022, I doubt she's going to do it without Alex. But this has been the season of shocking off-season news, so who knows.
 
I totally get being cautious with your optimism. I myself am going to wait until they step on the ice in 2019-2020 or see signs of training and music announcements before I get too excited, but I do think it's a big deal that Maia went ahead and said that. That said, a lot can happen between now and then so I get the caution. I mean what if Alex and/or Maia get some off-ice opportunities that are too good to turn down?

As for Alex, I really think Maia wouldn't have said that unless Alex and her were on the same page. I don't know what single American ice dance men are out there, but I never heard anything that would indicate Maia would be interested in starting anew with a new partner where she would have fight her way through the crowded U.S. ice dance field, nor has she said she'd be open to competing with somebody else, but just because I haven't seen it doesn't mean Maia is not open to it and people do evolve.
 
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Dobre said:
Sigh. I would love to believe that Maia & Alex will compete the next quadrennium. I am the first to say that I always find it a mistake to believe a dance team will retire. And, as I have said a multitude of times, I believe the Shibs are capable of absolutely anything in the sport. I believe it.

I also believe in cautious optimism with all athletes that skip a Worlds for any reason other than injury. I think Maia & Alex think through what they say in public more than most. I'm sure he's fine with what she said. But she said she has her sights set on 2022. That's not the same as saying, "We are planning to compete through 2022." That would be a step further, and if the Shibs are planning to do so, I'm sure they'll tell us. Maybe they'll tell us tomorrow. If they do, great. But I'll stick with cautious optimism.

In fact, I'll stick with it until they set foot back in competition. That doesn't mean I won't be rooting for them & have faith in them 100%. I've had it since 2007, and that's not about to change now;).
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I agree completely. I'm cautious by nature and while what Maia said gives me hope they'll compete through to 2022, I'm not convinced they have committed to that goal. Yes, they're still young, but they've competed through two Olympic cycles already as seniors, and I'm wondering if they're wanting to spread their wings and explore other goals and interests. They have two Olympic medals now. At some point they will move on and start reaping all their rewards for their excellent skating all these years.
 
VIETgrlTerifa said:
Alex left such a sweet comment on Maia's latest IG post:

"So proud!! Now get back out to LA! I miss you!"

https://www.instagram.com/p/BkjMPA5gU4b/?hl=en&taken-by=maiashibutani

I think this may be the first time in a very long time Maia and Alex have been in separate cities. Anyway, Alex seemed busy at the IG beach party taking photos of and having photos taken by various social media celebrities.
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Speaking of:

https://twitter.com/AlexShibutani/status/1012380667693260800
 
They might continue to 2022? If that happens, I greatly look forward to seeing their programs.

I know I mentioned this before but I still have this fear that the judges might try to drop them down the rankings. My impression is that the judges have not been in their corner and they had to fight tooth and nail for most of their medals. I know the judges dropped them before after 2011 but my concern is that if it does happen again, they won't be at a stage in their career to recover yet again (if it does actually happen of course).

I know I'm being negative so I apologize about that. And for all I know, it might not happen at all. Maybe having the reputation of being Olympic medalists might give them a boost.
 
gk_891 said:
They might continue to 2022? If that happens, I greatly look forward to seeing their programs.

I know I mentioned this before but I still have this fear that the judges might try to drop them down the rankings. My impression is that the judges have not been in their corner and they had to fight tooth and nail for most of their medals. I know the judges dropped them before after 2011 but my concern is that if it does happen again, they won't be at a stage in their career to recover yet again (if it does actually happen of course).

I know I'm being negative so I apologize about that. And for all I know, it might not happen at all. Maybe having the reputation of being Olympic medalists might give them a boost.
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I think you're just expressing every Shibs fans' fear. We are very obsessed with the PCS and GOE scoring because we know they don't easily get those scores like other teams do. The Shibs are more vulnerable to calling because of it. That is not to say that some times PCS and GOE hasn't gone their way since the 2015-2016 season but we all know what it's like to see it drop and having to fight back up again. I do think the Shibs need to take this season off and if they really do plan to continue, they really need to evaluate their skating to make sure they do the type of choreography and programs and show off the necessary skill to keep them in the top like the way V/M and P/C were able to enjoy this past Olympic cycle. There is room for improvement for both Maia and Alex and they need to do it. They have the goods to be a top 2 team and compete for gold. That's why I think I want to see them with a choreographer/team that has a much bigger handle on what these two can do and take a much more creative hand and be a bit more demanding of them because them taking control was great last quad but it's becoming clear they need some direction now. It's becoming way too difficult for them to have to come up with stuff every season and still win things by themselves.

ETA: One thing I think would help a lot with Maia and Alex is they become a bit less self-conscious about the sibling thing and just move more freely. I know a lot of their critics say they can't do it, but they can as evidenced by how they skate in group numbers and other people. One of their biggest criticisms (other than power that affects their glide distance though that is much improved in the past few seasons and I think they cover way more ice than people give them credit for) is that Maia and Alex don't move their upper body that freely. It's a very old-school single skating style of carriage that is textbook but not usual for ice dance.

@gk_891 look at the way Maia moves here:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hmZ6UAXoBo8

It's similar to the way Maia and Alex moved in their "O" exhibition and I think more of them would give them a whole new look.
 
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On their current IG live going on right now, Maia says Alex has something really exciting coming up and how proud she is of him and Alex responds with "I just hope I do a good job." They didn't say what it is, but I am guessing all sorts of things right now.

ETA: This Live was hilarious. Maia and Alex seemed more delirious than usual due to their hectic schedule and Ansel Elgort joined in the chat. I had no idea they were friends.
 
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I posted links to their TWO Sun Valley vlogs in the GSD thread for all the summer shows there: https://www.fsuniverse.net/forum/threads/2018-sun-valley-on-ice-shows.103968/#post-5380511
Sylvia said:
The shows in the Big Hat Arena in Nagano, Japan took place back on June 8-10.
...
Maia & Alex Shibutani: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HS137YXjX2E
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GSD thread for the uploaded videos from the July 8 TV broadcast of the Nagano show: https://www.fsuniverse.net/forum/th...rative-show-in-nagano-japan-june-8-10.104131/

A bit more from Sun Valley (swans in the dark) in their "WE GOT OUR OLYMPIC RINGS!!!" vlog (July 6) https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YUNj5L9R-kI

FRIED CHICKEN ADVENTURE!!! (July 7): https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wXnpoheU-UQ
 
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Dobre said:
Sigh. I would love to believe that Maia & Alex will compete the next quadrennium. I am the first to say that I always find it a mistake to believe a dance team will retire. And, as I have said a multitude of times, I believe the Shibs are capable of absolutely anything in the sport. I believe it.

I also believe in cautious optimism with all athletes that skip a Worlds for any reason other than injury. I think Maia & Alex think through what they say in public more than most. I'm sure he's fine with what she said. But she said she has her sights set on 2022. That's not the same as saying, "We are planning to compete through 2022." That would be a step further, and if the Shibs are planning to do so, I'm sure they'll tell us. Maybe they'll tell us tomorrow. If they do, great. But I'll stick with cautious optimism.

In fact, I'll stick with it until they set foot back in competition. That doesn't mean I won't be rooting for them & have faith in them 100%. I've had it since 2007, and that's not about to change now;).
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I love Maia & Alex but I think the indefinite break is very likely to be a retirement from amateur skating. I say that since they are smart, and I think the ONLY ones who can afford that kind of break and come back and regain their former place are the true legends like Virtue & Moir and Torvill & Dean. Any others that try comebacks- Fusar Poli & Margalio, Drobiazko & Vanagas, Annenko & Stretenski, end up having dropped well down in the rankings to what they were before. Even tops teams who just miss a year with injury like Delobel & Schoenfelder, Moniotte & Lavanchy and Bobrova & Soloviev come back to find out a whole bunch of teams passed them in the year they were away and they can never get back over them again. In the case of B&S, the Shibutanis being one of those many teams.
 
Well, the Shibutanis were a team that was originally ahead of B/S then fell behind, and then fought their way back. The Shibs' career trajectory has been anything but usual, and with IJS things are more mobile than before with teams going up and down from competition to competition. The Shibs aren't dumb and they'll come back if they feel they are still able to be competitive. I for one do not think we've seen them at their best yet.
 
VIETgrlTerifa said:
Well, the Shibutanis were a team that was originally ahead of B/S then fell behind, and then fought their way back. The Shibs' career trajectory has been anything but usual, and with IJS things are more mobile than before with teams going up and down from competition to competition. The Shibs aren't dumb and they'll come back if they feel they are still able to be competitive. I for one do not think we've seen them at their best yet.
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I dont think it is that mobile. Sometimes a shift happens, but then things stay the way for quite awhile as that new shift creates a solid new pecking order of sorts that is set for quite awhile. For instance once the Shibutanis passed all the non P&C teams, and P&C came back from a big injury to defend their world title in 2016 which some doubted they would, P&C was set 1st of all the non Virtue & Moir teams and Shibs 2nd of all the non V&M teams the remainder of the quad. Once V&M came back and beat P&C in their 1st competition that was set (with only 1 exception) until V&M retired again. Once Weaver & Poje had a drop after winning their 2nd GPF in 2016, especialy with their disaesterous showing at 2016 4CCs and 2016 worlds when many were hyping them up to win even with P&C's return, and with the news of V&M then returning, they could never get back up until a bit at worlds last year, until/once V&M retired. They went from winning the 2015 and 2016 GPF to not even qualifying for it in both 2017 and 2018, and went from silver and bronze at worlds in 2014 and 2015 to only coming 7th at the Olympics. Once Chock & Bates beat the Shibutanis for the first time at 2012 Nationals it took a 4 whole years to ever place behind them again. Once the Shibutanis beat C&B at the 2016 Nationals for the first time in 4 years, they havent lost to them even once since. C&B had a bit of a slip at the end of the 2016 season, although medaling at worlds only due to other teams mistakes, and have continued to drop and never really gotten back up again. Once they lost for the first time to Hubbell & Donohue, they have also yet to beat them again and IMO wont beat them again barring a meltdown by H&D. When B&S came back and were placing behind teams they had been beating in 2014, they never got back over any of them again.

Things are still pretty static as is the norm for dance.
 
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You just listed all the times hierarchies were upended and teams that were set to be behind were able to beat teams ahead of them within three short seasons. Look at the top ten rankings from 2015 Worlds to 2017 Worlds. Lots of movement up and down. Being a Shibs fan, I know all too well about how static things can get and ice dance right now isn't immune to preconceived rankings and hierarchies, but they can be overcome in a way that is unprecedented in this discipline. The fact that the Shibs fell behind and were able to claw back up and the way Hubbell/Donohue were the third ranked U.S. team and fought their way to be true bronze medal contenders in 2018 just shows you should not be married to outdated ways of thinking just to be stubborn and be passive-aggressive against the Shibs and to state they have no chance to be medal contenders again and that they will most likely be passed over. Shibs fans have been hearing that for a long time, especially after 2014.
 
VIETgrlTerifa said:
You just listed all the times hierarchies were upended and teams that were set to be behind were able to beat teams ahead of them.
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Yet that is true, but once it does happen things stay set that way for several years to come in each case. Which still isnt exactly what I call mobile or fluid rankings.
 
savchenkoboss said:
Yet that is true, but once it does happen things stay set that way for several years to come in each case. Which still isnt exactly what I call mobile or fluid rankings.
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Again, look at the top ten placements from 2015 Worlds and 2017 Worlds. It's pretty fluid there and teams put in a similar tier have gone up and down. Look at the crazy SD and FD rankings at 2017 Worlds and compare that to the final rankings. It was all over the place. Also, despite P/C being put in the top tier with V/M, the Shibs were able to take advantage in 2016-2017 GPF SD where they beat P/C in that phase. Maybe it won't happen again, but it did happen and who knows what can happen with the Shibs. I bet you were saying four years ago how the Shibs had no chance to be medal contenders again and that Hawayek/Baker were destined to overtake them so that the Shibs wouldn't be making World/Olys teams again.
 
I don't believe in determinism even in ice dance. What I do believe is that Maia and Alex are currently the top three team in the world, or top two since V & M are probably out. They may have gone about as far as they can go with their current approach of doing their own thing. I really want to see them put themselves in the hands of a fabulous choreographer who can pull things out of them they themselves don't know they have. That's the only thing they need IMO - that surprise factor of outdoing themselves. To some they have seemed a bit stagnant since Fix You with the somewhat echoing trilogy programs, even though they were very busy working on their speed and levels in that period, and stretching their range in their SPs.
 
VIETgrlTerifa said:
On their current IG live going on right now, Maia says Alex has something really exciting coming up and how proud she is of him and Alex responds with "I just hope I do a good job." They didn't say what it is, but I am guessing all sorts of things right now.
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I just saw Alex used the #NYFWM hashtag in his IG story (and "Day 1") so my guess is New York Fashion Week: Men's happening this week. :)

ETA link to a schedule: http://cfda.f.mrhenry.be.s3.amazonaws.com/2018/07/NYFW-Mens_July-2018_Official-Schedule-Final_1.pdf

ETA #2: https://www.instagram.com/p/BlCMxNJBQup/?taken-by=alexshibutani

Caught a glimpse of Alex in the with Willy Chavarria backstage at his show in CFDA's Instastories yesterday.

Day 2 - Alex arriving in style: https://www.instagram.com/p/BlDfidWFviy/?taken-by=cfda
 
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Judging by his latest posts, I'm going to guess that the Council of Fashion Designers of America (CFDA) hired Alex to take photographs of the runway during Fashion Week.
 
I think the Shibutanis are moving on and pursuing other opportunities. I think they will be successful with any endeavors they pursue.
 
CaliSteve said:
I think the Shibutanis are moving on and pursuing other opportunities. I think they will be successful with any endeavors they pursue.
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Not necessarily. I think they decided to take a year off because of these opportunities came right now, which would have had a negative impact on their planning for the 2018-2019 season. We know that they like to start planning early and given the Olympics and the whirlwind of opportunities post-Olympics, there was no way they could do that.

I think they wanted to fully pursue the opportunities at hand and they couldn't do that if they were trying to get competition programs and trying to get competition ready. By taking the whole season off, they can actually start planning for 2019-2020 at their leisure and then not rush to get back for 2019 nationals or something.

I also think they know that eventually they WILL have to think of life post-skating and I believe it's good they're dipping their toe in now rather than having to wait another four years or something like that. Doing a job like shooting photographs for Men's Fashion Week is an incredible career opportunity that will yield Alex major contacts in the long-run.
 
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