I think the interview came out publicly just as voting was closing, so I doubt there will be any direct effect on his Oscar chances.
At the same time, he's losing a lot of fans over this, which could also affect his bankability at the box office, especially if he also loses the Oscar.
Timmy pretty much shot himself in the foot, didn't he? It's going to take a little time for the furor to die down on this one. I do think he may have scuttled his chances this year. Early on, he looked like the favorite, but I think Jordan has the momentum right now.
DiCaprio winning would be hilarious, but I think he needed to win a precursor award to be more competitive. And as great as Ethan Hawke was in Blue Moon, I think the film really needed a Best Picture nomination to help his case.
At the same time, he's losing a lot of fans over this, which could also affect his bankability at the box office, especially if he also loses the Oscar.
I don't think the ballet and opera comment would have done too much to Timmy's Oscar chances just because that was made public right as voting closed. But the month of February was bad for him and Marty Supreme. Being mentioned in the Epstein files in reference to Woody Allen and being mad that he had to disavow the movie and donate his salary from it to look good and then the unsafe film making bordering on sexual assault that was made public as the reason the Safdie brothers split really hurt Marty Supreme just in general. The fact that it blanked at the BAFTAs too is a really bad sign.
I don't think the ballet and opera comment would have done too much to Timmy's Oscar chances just because that was made public right as voting closed. But the month of February was bad for him and Marty Supreme. Being mentioned in the Epstein files in reference to Woody Allen and being mad that he had to disavow the movie and donate his salary from it to look good and then the unsafe film making bordering on sexual assault that was made public as the reason the Safdie brothers split really hurt Marty Supreme just in general. The fact that it blanked at the BAFTAs too is a really bad sign.
I'm not so sure that the comments didn't impact his chances; who knows how many people wait until the last minute to make their choices? OTOH, I don't think the Woody Allen/Epstein thing really made him look bad, because of the source (Soon Yi Previn? Not exactly a font of truth, that one). The BAFTAs shutout, though... yeah. Bad sign. I do think it might not be a bad idea for Timmy to back away from the public eye just a tad after the Oscars are over. Let his acting do the talking for awhile so people can maybe forget his most recent foray into professional hubris.
I agree with most of these, except for Supporting Actress. If Sinners has this great of a night - especially if Michael B. Jordan wins Best Actor, then Wunmi Mosako is absolutely winning as well. And I loved Amy Madigan’s performance in Weapons.
I also think that The Secret Agent has a better shot at winning Best International Feature than the “experts” think that it does. Sentimental Value does have more nominations (9 vs 4), including Original Screenplay, Editing, and Director, though.
I said this before, but I don't think the comments are hurting Chalamet's chances as much as the movie just isn't very good. It meanders. I never cared about any of the characters. It's not that they were awful. Jordan Belfort and Logan Roy are awful. I cared about them. It's that they are not interesting. The movie meandered. I rolled my eyes when the dog subplot was introduced, but officially clocked out when it was an hour later and we were still on the stolen dog.
This year I actually saw every nominees except for Secret Agent:
Here are my thoughts, from least favorite to favorite:
Secret Agent - I DID NOT SEE THIS SO HAVE NO OPINION
F1 (C) - not into this at all. But I had no interest in the topic matter. It was fun I suppose.
Train Dreams: (C). I did not get into this at all. I can appreciate what it was trying to do, and liked the gorgeous cinematography, but it was just too slow for me.
Marty Supreme (B-): Timothee Chalamet was great. The concept was interesting. I wasn't bored. But ... the movie meandered on for too long with the sideplots. Like the stolen dog sideplot ... I was like okay it's an hour later and we're still on the dog. I never cared about any of the characters. It wasn't that they were unlikable. Jordan Belfort in Wolf of Wall St. or the Roys in Succession are unlikable too, but I cared about them. Not Marty Supreme. Super disappointed.
Hamnet (B). Jessie Buckley is amazing. The acting is actually amazing all across the board. But my god, some parts of the movie were cringe. Shakespeare explaining the Orpheus and Eurydice myth, the scene by the bank where Shakespeare comes up with the "to be or not to be" monologue, it all was so artsy and not in a good way. And I rolled my eyes at the use of Max Richter's "On the Nature of Daylight." Overall it seemed like a film trying too hard to be a prestige film.
Frankenstein (B) - I loved a lot of the thing Guillermo del Toro did with this film. Gorgeous cinematography, and closer to the book in terms of who the Monster was. But there were some weird deviances from the book as well (why is Elizabeth Victor's brother's fiance)?
Why did the Monster not kill Elizabeth
? And I felt that Oscar Isaac's acting was a rare miss. Way too cartoonishly villainous.
Sentimental Value (B+) - The acting in this movie was stellar. Maybe the best acting ensemble I saw. The movie, however, is that typical glum Scandinavian family drama that SNL lampooned. I also felt the ending of the movie didn't resolve anything.
One Battle After Another (A-). I liked this a lot. I'm really close to my dad, so the father/daughter relationship between Bob and Willa I found very touching. I also liked the acting of Leo, Benicio del Toro, Chase Infiniti, Sean Penn, etc. However, I think that the movie's vaguely anti-establishment theme was kind of muddled. As a result I felt like the movie didn't truly come into focus until the time jump when Willa grew up. Still, entertaining and I'd have no iddues with it winning BP.
Bugonia (A) - I LOVED THIS. Jesse Plemons, Aidan Delbis, Emma Stone were amazing. I'm a huge Yorgos Lanthimos fan. Unlike OBAA, I felt like the dark web/conspiracy theory themes were well-developed, and the film absolutely stuck the landing. However, it's a little too weird/offbeat to win BP. I have a feeling it will become a classic though.
Sinners (A) - what's to say? I loved it, like everyone else. The end-credit scene had me crying like a baby. Incredible music, great themes of music, assimilation, cultural appropriation, family, etc. No weak links in the cast, every character is well-developed. Beautiful cinematography. A worthy BP winner if it wins.
What do y'all think?
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has a better shot at winning Best International Feature than the “experts” think that it does. Sentimental Value 
does have more nominations (9 vs 4), including Original Screenplay, Editing, and Director, though.
