Texas Flash Floods Turn Deadly

Vash01 said:
I am a bit surprised that there are camps near rivers.
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The second most deadly flash flood in the nation's history occurred along a creek, not even a river. Water came down multiple canyons and built up behind something--per wikipedia, a steam laundry that had been built across the creek. When the blockage failed, the water barreled into town with the force of a large river. About 250 people died in a community of roughly a thousand. Riders on horseback managed to warn the citizens of the next two communities down the creek and save the people in those towns. (Though some people there later died of typhoid due to unsanitary water conditions caused by the flooding).

In the 60s & 70s, multiple flood-control studies were done; and a concrete dam was built in the early 80s to prevent a similar event along that creek.
 
Saw some footage of the Guadalupe river, the devastation, and a few interviews on msnbc. The flooding looks scary.

I am trying to stay away from politics. Will check out the PI for any related discussion.
 
And because we need uplifting news:

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An alert sounded on my phone from the WSJ. They are reporting 109 confirmed dead and Abbott said there were still 161 missing in Kerr County alone. I'm not sure they have numbers calculated elsewhere. I do hope some people are fine but just cut off from normal communication. How awful for the families still waiting for news about their loved ones.
 
Cachoo said:
An alert sounded on my phone from the WSJ. They are reporting 109 confirmed dead and Abbott said there were still 161 missing in Kerr County alone. I'm not sure they have numbers calculated elsewhere. I do hope some people are fine but just cut off from normal communication. How awful for the families still waiting for news about their loved ones.
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During the press conference earlier today, Abbott said they've set up a hotline for people to report potentially missing people because they really just aren't certain how many people were camping in the area this past weekend who are unaccounted for still. :(
 
This is so sad, my condolences to anyone suffering a loss.

Locating a camp on the oxbow of a river seems odd IMHO. The loss of life during this event seems totally preventable with today's knowledge, equipment, etc to predict beforehand and to evacuate those in danger......hopefully, a post incident review will be done to find out the root cause and provide recommendations going forward. Hopefully such a review can be done without political pressure but with current admin, not sure.
 
Karen-W said:
This morning's update is grim - now 176 missing, however the death toll has risen to 191.
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119, I think. Rather than 191?

It feels so strange, doesn't it? That both numbers are going up. During the first couple days, yes, I would expect the number of missing to be incomplete. But after that, I'd expect the number of missing to drop as the dead are found and living were confirmed. Instead, it seems the number of missing was woefully underestimated and so both numbers have continued to rise. Just a terrible tragedy, plausibly to become the second worst death toll from a flash flood in U.S. history and the worst in over 135 years.
 
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Dobre said:
119, I think. Rather than 191?

It feels so strange, doesn't it? That both numbers are going up. During the first couple days, yes, I would expect the number of missing to be incomplete. But after that, I'd expect the number of missing to drop as the dead are found and living were confirmed. Instead, it seems the number of missing was woefully underestimated and so both numbers have continued to rise. Just a terrible tragedy, plausibly to become the second worst death toll from a flash flood in U.S. history and the worst in over 135 years.
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I suspect many families had not reported their missing relatives early on, because they may not have tried to contact them, and/or didn’t know that they may have been impacted. May be the phone/cell services had broken down.

I am afraid the relatives of the missing ones may not get the news they are hoping for, but one has to keep hoping, no matter how agonizing it can be.

In rare cases miracles have happened but it is unlikely that there will be that many. :(

This is so heart breaking! I do have relatives in/near Austin but I know that area was not impacted. It’s the rural part of the hill country that was.

Donations are coming in, to help them rebuild.
 
Vash01 said:
I suspect many families had not reported their missing relatives early on, because they may not have tried to contact them, and/or didn’t know that they may have been impacted. May be the phone/cell services had broken down.
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I assume families both a. tried to contact them and b. that services were down. It's just that in the natural disaster scenarios I recall (local wildfires), the names of people who couldn't be reached went onto the missing list early and then came down as people were able to make contact. In this case, it seems like the missing from Camp Mystic were reported immediately but not names from the rest of the region.
 
Dobre said:
119, I think. Rather than 191?

It feels so strange, doesn't it? That both numbers are going up. During the first couple days, yes, I would expect the number of missing to be incomplete. But after that, I'd expect the number of missing to drop as the dead are found and living were confirmed. Instead, it seems the number of missing was woefully underestimated and so both numbers have continued to rise. Just a terrible tragedy, plausibly to become the second worst death toll from a flash flood in U.S. history and the worst in over 135 years.
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Coworker in TX says they let fireworks off over this river so when this storm hit there were numerous people camping, or in RVs and various riverfront vacation rentals that aren't normally in this area.
 
The missing referred to in that video caption are from the Texas flooding. Fortunately the NM flood was far less deadly.

It's the summer of floods as another catastrophic flood surges in New Mexico. This as 173 people are still missing following the deadly Texas floods.
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Cachoo said:
Interesting article about Camp Mystic and the response to the flood as it occurred:

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Thanks for the article. It is very good.

I read it and at least 100 comments. The common thread is the authorities did nothing in the face of the disaster (e.g. having to get permission from a supervisor in order to issue a CodeRED while the disaster was around the corner), the county not installing a warning system, and these girls could have been saved if only the means to evacuate them in time were available (like walkie talkies with counselors, the sheriff’s office taking quick actions, etc.

Granted it was a ‘perfect storm’ for a natural disaster but the area was not prepared for a disaster. That baffles me. This is flash flood alley. If people live in areas where there are fires or tornadoes or hurricanes every year, I believe they have some kind of systems in place to protect people.

These counties are very small, so I don’t want to be too harsh on them. Why can’t a big state like Texas help their vulnerable areas? They know the Guadalupe river can be dangerous. Why leave everything to a county?

Worse, FEMA could not help the search and rescue because Ms. Noem had made a rule that for anything costing over $100,000 would require her signature. She was on vacation for three days (why was she not available for emergencies?) and 72 hours of help could not be given. It was too late. The incompetence of the current admin is inexcusable.

It was a natural disaster, but lives at Camp Mystic could have been saved. That’s what makes this even more heart breaking.

I still don’t understand why the youngest girls were sleeping in the most dangerous (low) areas. The high ground was not far from their cabins, but they were little girls. Actually why have cabins near their river’s edge, knowing that it could rise?

Some comments are talking about investigation, lawsuits, etc. Investigation needs to be done immediately and IMO Noem should be questioned by Congress.
 
@Vash01 - I believe you are correct about tornado sirens in areas that are prone to tornadoes, but, as far as I'm aware, there aren't any warning sirens in areas prone to wildfires. And, really, anyone who has ever lived in a wildfire region would tell you their noses & eyes will alert them to a fire more quickly than a siren. It is a rare situation where you don't have plenty of notice to evacuate from a wildfire's path.

Also, FEMA was on the ground in Saturday. I'm not sure how accurate the portrayal of the situation with Noem needing to sign something is. During a natural disaster the Coast Guard reports to DHS and there are a multitude of stories about the Coast Guard swift water rescue teams saving many lives over the first couple days - one Coastie alone is credited with saving over 165 people. All of it is coordinated by DHS, though they don't report directly to FEMA.

My bigger concern, especially with regard to Camp Mystic, is they underwent a construction/expansion project less than 5 years ago and built new cabins & facilities on the geologic floodway, which is the area most prone to flash flooding deluges. I have a lot of questions as to why County planners allowed that construction to occur in that area specifically rather than on higher ground. It seems to me that the simplest & easiest way to have avoided this tragedy - and not just at this camp but at all of the RV & campgrounds along the rivers, is to have not allowed them in the geologic floodways. Recreational buildings or picnic/BBQ grilling areas, playgrounds & games zones (for fun things like cornhole, horseshoes, lawn bowling, beach/sand volleyball & other net/racquet games) are fine for those areas, but campsites & RV spots should be on higher ground.
 
Karen-W said:
@Vash01And, really, anyone who has ever lived in a wildfire region would tell you their noses & eyes will alert them to a fire more quickly than a siren.
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The day/night the fires blew up around Oregon in 2020, skies here were brown & black with blowing dust and wildfire smoke from mid-morning onward. (This with the closest wildfire many miles away). Winds were what? 40 miles an hour? I went to bed with the wind howling, pitch black outside, knowing if a local fire sparked and came across the field at the speed of that wind, we would never know. All the small towns here have sirens; but out of town, how would we have known? You couldn't see a thing, and the air was already so thick with smoke from distant wildfires, we wouldn't have known a new fire was coming. Neighbors call if they see something, and there is a county-wide alert system that goes out via phone. (Of course, often during natural disasters communications go down). But there was no visual that night, and many towns that burned had only minutes to get out. It was a miracle so many were evacuated successfully.
 
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Dobre said:
The day/night the fires blew up around Oregon in 2020, skies here were brown & black with blowing dust and wildfire smoke from early morning onward. Winds were what? 40 miles an hour? (This with the closest wildfire many miles away). I went to bed with the wind howling, pitch black outside, knowing if a local fire sparked and came across the field at the speed of that wind, we would never know. How would we have known? You couldn't see a thing, and the air was already so thick with smoke from distant wildfires, we wouldn't have known a new fire was coming. Neighbors call if they see something, and there is a county-wide alert system that goes out via phone. (Of course, often during natural disasters communications go down). But there was no visual that night, and many towns that burned had only minutes to get out. It was a miracle so many were evacuated successfully.
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And I'm sure you're aware that a siren isn't going to do any good in that scenario. Wildfires ripping along that fast are roaring loud and no one sleeping in their house during the night will hear it - which is a problem with tornado sirens from what I've been reading. They're great if you're outdoors and awake, but if you're inside & sleeping, you just won't hear it unless you're right under or next to it.

These are rural areas, not urban or even suburban zones. I don't know how practical it is to install a siren alert system (at least not for wildfires) in a rural region. I suppose a flash flood siren alert system is more practical of an idea than a wildfire siren simply because wildfires can spark anywhere. At least with a flash flood zone, it's only really necessary in the floodplain - similar to the tsunami warning zones/evacuation routes that are marked along many beaches all over the West Coast (and other parts of the world, like Japan).

I still think the bigger blame is with the county planning & zoning commissions that allowed camps, RV parks & campgrounds to continue to exist in the floodplain, and in particular the geologic floodway. It may piss people off for those areas to be restricted to day use only, but I suspect that sort of zoning would have saved many lives a week ago.
 
I live in a tornado prone area. Most tornado sirens are designed to alert those outside to seek shelter inside. I can hear them in my house but they aren’t loud enough to wake me from a sound sleep. Most of us have multiple ways of being notified. I generally use my phone that has a siren that would wake the dead.
Most of our really bad weather occurs in the evening, not overnight. About 20 years ago, two EF2s skipped through my town about 9 pm doing extensive damage but causing no deaths. General tornado awareness coupled with lots of basements probably helped save lives.
The few really dangerous nights we have, the weather service does a good job identifying them. I don’t sleep those nights until the danger passes.
 
MsZem said:
All very good questions for some sort of official inquiry. The flood was not avoidable, but much of the death toll should have been if funding and preparedness had been commensurate with the risk.
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This first reminded me of the hikers lost in the flooded wadi in Israel some years back. But that was minuscule compared to this. I think they put the hike organizers on trial?
 
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