Olympic Team Event: Strategies and Subs! (Threads Merged)

Erin said:
Yeah...I'd love it if Canada could pull off gold, but I'm having a hard time seeing it. I thought their chances of gold were better going into 2014 and look how that turned out? This year, I'm less optimistic. I think for Canada to pull off the win, they would need Chan to pull off an SP like last year's Worlds and a FP along the lines of 2016 4CC (which he looked nowhere near being able to do at Canadians), a clean short from Osmond, Daleman to repeat her free skate from Canadians, a clean short from Duhamel & Radford including a triple lutz on one foot from Eric (which we have yet to see this season), Seguin & Bilodeau to repeat their free skate from Canadians, and Virtue & Moir to replicate programs from Canadians. Mistakes from the skaters you mentioned above would help too. In the skates I mentioned from the Canadian skaters, aside from Osmond's short and maybe the Virtue & Moir performances, it's asking them to put together a skate that is equal to a skate they have achieved only once this season (Daleman and Seguin & Bilodeau) or not at all (Duhamel & Radford, Chan), which is a lot to ask. It would be great if I was wrong on this, but I don't want to get my hopes up and be disappointed.

As for the US, I think the ground that they are going to lose to Canada in pairs and dance will make it hard to catch up for silver and in that case, they would have to be hoping for a repeat of things like Canadians SP Osmond, Skate Canada LP Chan, Rostelecom LP Seguin & Bilodeau, etc.
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Canadians don’t have to be perfect, they just need to be competitive in men’s and pairs. Mikhail is very inconsistent. Patrick doesn’t need to be at his best, just better in comparison. He already has big PCS. Even with an iffy axel he could still beat Mikhail because of his superior PCS. Mikhail OTOH would have to be spotless to beat Patrick clean.

Gabby in the FS only needs to beat Kaori. In fact she can afford to come in third and Canada would still win. But Gabby is in good shape. She’s recovered from her surgery and changed back to her LP that she loves. She managed to do it clean back to back at worlds and WTT. Clean, she should get a 145. She’s looking good.

Then there’s pairs. That’s where things are iffy. I think D/R have to both. There’s no chance for gold if they don’t. They just need to stay right behind Russia in both segments. That means they forfeit a medal on their own segment, though...
 
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levineismine said:
^This will make it hard for China even to make the final, opening the door to Italy.

I still expect a couple more big names not to do the team event. Official news are coming in fast now anyways.
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They finally announced that P/C are not doing the team event. For the US, Chen is doing the SP and Rippon the long.
So likely the final 5 will be CAN, OAR, USA, ITA, JPN. With CAN and OAR battling for gold and USA a very likely bronze.
 
levineismine said:
They finally announced that P/C are not doing the team event. For the US, Chen is doing the SP and Rippon the long.
So likely the final 5 will be CAN, OAR, USA, ITA, JPN. With CAN and OAR battling for gold and USA a very likely bronze.
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This really changes the picture. No France in the LP, so Japan has a chance. Still, the bronze is the USA's to lose. Gold is still Canada's, imo.
 
Frida80 said:
I think it’s a done deal. A poster before explained plainly why the Shibs would be a better choice for both. There is no risk in splitting the ladies.
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How can this be a done deal without an official announcement?

If the USA feels confident that Bradie can skate two clean performances, they may split ice dance. The Shibs have not been consistent this season.
 
H&D aren't even in Korea yet, I don't think. I'll have to go back and check Twitter but I seem to recall seeing a tweet from Zach over the weekend that they were leaving in 5 days (which would be today or tomorrow). Meanwhile, the Shibs arrived yesterday. I'm not sure of C&B's travel status but if they aren't already in Korea then I doubt they are an option for the Team Event either. Note that Bradie & Mirai, Nathan & Adam are already in Korea, meanwhile, Vincent & Karen have yet to arrive. It's fairly obvious who our Team entrants are, IMO.
 
VIETgrlTerifa said:
Chock/Bates are already in Korea.
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That makes sense since he is the overall team captain.

I'm still not convinced that there is a possibility for the USFSA to split dance. Dobre's analysis was pretty convincing. Maybe the question isn't so much how the ladies do in practice but how the Shibs FD is looking.
 
Spun Silver said:
I think the US will want to fight for silver now but what do I know?
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I have been posting about the USA winning the silver but no one wants to believe me. May be they will, now. :)

I think it will close between USA and Russia for silver/bronze.
 
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The men will be the wildcard.if Chan skates well, he can beat Kolyada. Chen seems to be pretty consistent and should keep the USA in the medal hunt. Then it’s up to Ripon to put some distance between OAR and the USA is going to challenge for the silver medal.
 
coppertop1 said:
The men will be the wildcard.if Chan skates well, he can beat Kolyada. Chen seems to be pretty consistent and should keep the USA in the medal hunt. Then it’s up to Ripon to put some distance between OAR and the USA is going to challenge for the silver medal.
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I’ve run these numbers so many times. Canada and Russia are so far ahead. If they perform as expected, they’ll be more than 12 points ahead. To get silver, Canada’s men, ladies and pairs would all have to fall to fifth or lower. It’s just not probable. I think all the teams going into this knew that Canada and Russia would fight for gold and USA had an safe bronze.
 
^yes, hence no reason to tire out Chen in the team event doing both segments, as anyways the couple of points more the US would get there would not make a big difference in the final placements.
 
Frida80 said:
I’ve run these numbers so many times. Canada and Russia are so far ahead. If they perform as expected, they’ll be more than 12 points ahead. To get silver, Canada’s men, ladies and pairs would all have to fall to fifth or lower. It’s just not probable. I think all the teams going into this knew that Canada and Russia would fight for gold and USA had an safe bronze.
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I didn’t crunch any numbers, so I’ll take your word for it :p but help me out here:

Isn’t Russia likely to beat Canada in men, ladies and pair? Does it all come down to dance?
 
Ladies, yes. Men’s will be the most unpredictable. Pairs could go either way. We have Ice Dance with V/M
 
^ Ice dance in the best case scenario for OAR (B/S beat C/L in both segments) is: V/M, Shibs, B/S: this is a 4 pts lead.
Pairs can go either way, but I suspect T/M and D/R will be close whichever way it goes (so max a couple points spread).
Ladies has OAR pretty much winning both segments but Osmond could be as close as 2nd or third.
The largest gaps could be in the men SP (e.g. a Kolyada on a good day vs a Chan on a bad day or vice versa could end up a 3-4 points gap).
Overall Canada has a small lead, but gold depends on whether Chan delivers.
 
MR-FAN said:
I didn’t crunch any numbers, so I’ll take your word for it :p but help me out here:

Isn’t Russia likely to beat Canada in men, ladies and pair? Does it all come down to dance?
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Mikhail is not consistent, so I can’t say for sure if would do well or not. Based on his track record, a cleanish Patrick would be competitive with him.

It doesn’t matter if Russians beat the Canadians in ladies and pairs, because they’re so far ahead in dance they can make up the difference. It all comes down to the men. If Patrick wins, Canada wins gold. If Mikhail wins, Russia wins gold.
 
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