Olympic Team Event: Strategies and Subs! (Threads Merged)

France:

Pairs- James & Cipres both programs
Men- Chafik Besseghier both programs
Dance- Papadakis & Cizeron both programs
Ladies- Mae Berenice Meite both programs
 
The US team will be Nathan SP and Adam FS. Nathan's the US's only hope for individual Oly gold, and they won't want to tire him out. Plus, Adam's scored higher than Nathan in the FS (Skate America) this year, and Nathan's been fairly consistent with his SP, and will almost certainly get either 10 or 9 points for it (may be behind the JPN man), whereas he's been really inconsistent in the free (but who hasn't been, this season?). I'm thinking it'll be the Shibs for SD and H/D for the FD, and Bradie for the SP and FS. USFSA won't be worried about her stamina, since she has little to no hope for an individual medal... she'd have to beat out seven out of Zagitova, Medvedeva, Sotskova, Miyahara, Sakamoto, Kostner, Osmond, Tursynbaeva, and Daleman (heck, a clean Mirai or Karen would/should beat a clean Bradie). And there's more time between the team event and the ladies event anyways.

I have NO idea what the Canadian team will be like; there's so many questions! Canadian Nationals will answer a lot of them, but assuming that Patrick is doing alright, I think it will be D/R for both, Chan for both, V/M for both, and Osmond SP/Daleman FS. Although Daleman is also a ??? for me. D/R, Chan, and Osmond are all contenders for an individual medal, but I don't think any are contenders for gold barring a complete meltdown from other competitors, and even V/M is more likely to be silver than gold. So I think they'll put their strongest competitors in to try to get a team gold over Russia. Which means the second Canadian pair and W/P are less likely.

Russia will be Medvedeva SP/Zagitova FS, Kolyada for both, and B/S for both. Pairs could probably go either way but I hope that it'll be T/M SP and S/K FS -- seeing the Candyman program once at the Olympics is already one time too many.

RUS, CAN, and USA will definitely make the second round. I'm not sure about the other two. Japan is a lock if Hanyu is healthy and close to 100%. If he is, I'd have him in the SP and Uno in the FS. And then Miyahara SP/Sakamoto FS. M/R and S/K for both.

Last team could be one of ITA, FRA, or CHN, depending on who shows up that day. Rizzo and Besseghier will place in the bottom half for the men, but it could really be in any order between them, Cha and Fentz. Maybe even throw in Bychenko, since he has disaster potential. In pairs, J/C could be anywhere between 2nd in the SP to 5th, depending on how Russia, Canada, and Germany do. China's chances of making the free hinge mainly on Jin doing well. He's been a mess all season, but he was last season as well, and ended up repeat-medaling at Worlds. And Italy could make it if Kostner does particularly well. Out of these, it's probably France, but Laurine/Mae falling apart could ruin that too. Hmm.
 
I think France will only put Papadakis/Cizeron to one portion of the event maybe the Free Dance and one of their second couple for the Short Dance, they know in advance that options are very few to qualify to the free skates and even making Gabriella/Guillaume skate the short dance wont help their cause. There is no point.

For the US it will be most likely Tennell SP & FS, Chen SP, Rippon FS, Knierims both programs, Shibutanis SD and Chock/Bates FD but I have my doubts as Hubbell/Donohue have been on the rise but USFSA could 'pay tribute' to Shibs and C/B with that olympic team bronze medal after all this years

Canada needs to put their A Team to try to match the OAR squad that looks strong and capable of finishing top 3 in each of the portions of each discipline hence taking the gold medal once again. For me it has to be: Chan both, Osmond both, D/R both and V/M SD with W/P the Free (They deserve an olympic medal heck Kevin Reynolds has one!!!) there will be one substitution to make but there is no point on using with pairs, same thing with men they are just weak this time outside Chan and Daleman could implode anytime
 
Braulio said:
I think France will only put Papadakis/Cizeron to one portion of the event maybe the Free Dance and one of their second couple for the Short Dance, they know in advance that options are very few to qualify to the free skates and even making Gabriella/Guillaume skate the short dance wont help their cause. There is no point.
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This. Unless Russia is not allowed to enter the team event, Chan doesn't show up and the US team is decimated with injury, none of which anyone wishes for - not even Didier - and they suddenly end up with an outside chance of a bronze, I don't see P&C being used in the team competition for more than one program. Possibly, not even at all, depending on their preference. They are France's medal chance.
 
millyskate said:
This. Unless Russia is not allowed to enter the team event, Chan doesn't show up and the US team is decimated with injury, none of which anyone wishes for - not even Didier - and they suddenly end up with an outside chance of a bronze, I don't see P&C being used in the team competition for more than one program. Possibly, not even at all, depending on their preference. They are France's medal chance.
Click to expand...

So I actually think (wishful thinking probably) that France has an outside chance for bronze regardless. Everyone is waayyyy overestimating the strength of the US team, and it could be tight for the 3rd behind Russia and Canada. Obviously the problem for France is their singles skaters, but at least in ladies, I don't think Mae or Laurine will finish more than a spot behind Tennell. Tennell will probably get 5th behind the Russian lady, Osmond, Kostner, and the Japanese lady. Mae/Laurine will probably get 6th above Schott, Buchanan, Li, and Choi. Besseghier will be several spots behind Chen, but SK/K could be almost as many behind J/C (I was at the arena for US Nationals this year, and SK/K looked very rough). And if it's P/C 1st, V/M 2nd, and S/S 3rd, that's extra points there too. In the free, the lack of strength in singles will matter even less. Mae/Laurine and Besseghier will be dead last, but Rippon and Tennell will probably be second to last. P/C would probably win the FD over V/M, and whoever the US chooses would be 3rd at best. And J/C will definitely beat SK/K again, although the question is by how much.

So the French have a shot if J/C do particularly well. Pairs is so unpredictable, and while J/C haven't really put up any big wins, they've beaten most of the top teams in individual segments at least once in the last year. Off the top of my head, against S/K in both segments at Euros, against T/M in the free at GP France and in both segments at WTT, against S/M in the short at Euros and free at Skate Canada, and against D/R in the free at Worlds. They were also less than a point behind D/R in the short at Skate Canada, and probably would have been ahead had it been held anywhere other than there LOL. AND you have to be thinking that other countries might not be putting their best out there either. Like, if France doesn't have a shot, then China REALLY doesn't have a shot. Might they use Y/Z or P/J instead of S/H to save their own gold medal chance? J/C could definitely beat either of the two first teams.

BUT I'm also of the opinion that Japan could spoil the podium too, if Hanyu is healthy. M/R have looked pretty good this year, and could be as high as 6th in the short segment (above Korea, China, Israel, and Germany), which would really boost their chances.

Again, wishful thinking and a lot of speculation, but can you tell I'd love to see something unexpected go down here? Haha.
 
I think Italy will use the same strategy as 2014 and have the top skaters with medal chances (dance and ladies) do the SPs to test the waters and have enough rest time until their individual events, then sub C/L with G/F and Kostner with Russo. There would be an argument to split pairs since they are close to each other.
So, while Italy has an almost non existant shot at team bronze (but one can hope :p ), I think their goal should be qualify for the free.
Important is that they can potentially upset the individual placements and widen the point gaps between top contenders, especially in the SPs. I can imagine e.g. Kostner beating the US lady and maybe CAN, while C/L could pass RUS in dance.
 
levineismine said:
I think Italy will use the same strategy as 2014 and have the top skaters with medal chances (dance and ladies) do the SPs to test the waters and have enough rest time until their individual events, then sub C/L with G/F and Kostner with Russo. There would be an argument to split pairs since they are close to each other.
So, while Italy has an almost non existant shot at team bronze (but one can hope :p ), I think their goal should be qualify for the free.
Important is that they can potentially upset the individual placements and widen the point gaps between top contenders, especially in the SPs. I can imagine e.g. Kostner beating the US lady and maybe CAN, while C/L could pass RUS in dance.
Click to expand...
Rizzo FTW!
 
Braulio said:
Canada needs to put their A Team to try to match the OAR squad that looks strong and capable of finishing top 3 in each of the portions of each discipline hence taking the gold medal once again.
Click to expand...

You think Bob/Sol s will beat at least two of V/M, P/C, S/S, and C/L in the Short Dance? Even if France only uses P/C in one portion of the team event and the US substitutes in H/D or C/B for the Free, that still leaves B/S finishing 4th, at best, in one portion and 5th in the other portion.

It is harder to handicap the men but I don't think Kolyada has a realistic shot of finishing 3rd or higher in the SP... You have Shoma/Yuzu for Japan, Nathan, Jin, and maybe Chan and Bychenko who are in that mix. In the FP, sure, the best Russian man is likely to finish 3rd, maybe higher.

Pairs - all depends on who skates the SP, as to whether or not the Russian team finishes 3rd or higher - if S/M and S/H use the Team Event as a warm-up for their real competition, then they are probably going to place ahead of either T/M or S/K. And D/R and J/C have shown themselves more than capable of beating both Russian teams. Now, for the FP, sure, the Russian team will be top 3, possibly even 1st, because at least two of S/M, J/C, and S/H (or a 2nd Chinese team) won't be competing.

Ladies is the only event where Russia can be considered a lock to have at least 3rd or higher in both portions.
 
slipchuk said:
France:

Pairs- James & Cipres both programs
Men- Chafik Besseghier both programs
Dance- Papadakis & Cizeron both programs
Ladies- Mae Berenice Meite both programs
Click to expand...

Is this even allowed? I thought they Had to split in two disciplines?
 
Is there a thread to predict the Team results? If not, here are mine.

1. Canada
2. USA
3. Russia (not sure about this; strong in only ladies, and somewhat strong in pairs but not top two)
After that,

4.France
5. Italy
6.Japan or China (strong in only Two disciplines)
 
Vash01 said:
Is this even allowed? I thought they Had to split in two disciplines?
Click to expand...
No, you can split two disciplines but there is no requirement to do so. The French only have multiple entries in ice dance so they could split that but they may not even make the free skate, so it may be a moot point.
 
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When do countries have to submit their rosters? I don't remember when we knew who was doing the team event at the last Olympics.

I also wish you could split all disciplines if you wanted to - I guess it would be somewhat of an advantage giving each entry more rest so I see why they limit it to 2 disciplines, but I would like to see more people in the team event like the other non-Olympic skating team events.
 
Does anyone know what possibilities exist for Japan to qualify to the free program?
 
Team Event Predictions:
1. Canada - assuming they split the Ladies & Pairs event - will win the Ice Dance portion and be a strong 2nd or 3rd in other disciplines.
2. Olympic Athletes from Russia - will win the Ladies competition and be a strong 2nd or 3rd in the other disciplines.
3. United States - strong in Men & Ice Dance but not winning those events - giving up some Pairs points - Ladies is a complete guess.
4. China - strong in Pairs - will win this discipline - Men's competition will decide between the US & China for the bronze.
5. Japan - just makes the free skate - they missed it in 2014 - will win the Men's event - strong 2nd or 3rd in Ladies - will struggle with Ice Dance & Pairs
6. France - only chance to make the free skate is if Papadakis & Cizeron compete - if they do they could win the Ice Dance event and play spoiler for OAR to win Gold over Canada
7. Italy - another chance for Kostner to shine and set herself up for a medal in the individual event with a great short program.
8. Germany - will Savchenko/Massot do the short program? Savchenko/Szolkowy skipped the team event because Germany wasn't competitive but Massot does not have the same experience at the Olympics and when you look at the extra practice time and the chance to do a competitive program with no external pressure - seems like a good reason to do it.
9 & 10. Korea & Israel - this is where we hand out those participation awards that everyone was raving about.
 
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I cant see them using 2 dance teams not using the reigning U.S Champions in atleast one so I am almost 100% certain the Shibutanis will do the short dance and Chock & Bates the free dance. I would be willing to bet money on it in fact. That plus Hubbell & Donohue have been doing better than C&B all year, even if C&B sometimes score marginally higher in the FD. IMO the only thing that would change that is Chock & Bates having a huge showing at Four Continents (I forget who was named to there).

The real question is if they use only 1 dance team which would they use to do both programs. Definitely not C&B, but I am not sure which of the other two it would be.

As for Team Russia and some comments in both this thread and the other I could see them doing better than some are saying. Kolyada can definitely be top 3. He would have won the GPF if he even skated at 80% of his potential, it was a who did less awful contest between Chen, Uno, and Kolyada there and Chen did by a bit. And that sums up the mens event this year, it has been pretty awful, that Chen is undefeated even if he were skating well, let alone not even skating that well internationally, just sums up how terrible it has been. At the Games it hopefully wont be that bad, but based on that Kolyada could potentially place as high as anywhere in the mens segment if he skates well. I certainly think he can beat Boyang Jin and Chan as someone had him for certain placing below, in fact given the season so far I fully expect him to outplace both of those.

I give Russia the edge for gold right now. IMO they are stronger than Canada in mens right now, and I dont see Chan having a huge transformation by the Games how he looks right now. Atleast equal or stronger in pairs. Weaker in dance, but far stronger in ladies. Atlhough it close between the two.
 
slipchuk said:
I cant see them using 2 dance teams not using the reigning U.S Champions in atleast one so I am almost 100% certain the Shibutanis will do the short dance and Chock & Bates the free dance. I would be willing to bet money on it in fact. That plus Hubbell & Donohue have been doing better than C&B all year, even if C&B sometimes score marginally higher in the FD. IMO the only thing that would change that is Chock & Bates having a huge showing at Four Continents (I forget who was named to there).

The real question is if they use only 1 dance team which would they use to do both programs. Definitely not C&B, but I am not sure which of the other two it would be.

As for Team Russia and some comments in both this thread and the other I could see them doing better than some are saying. Kolyada can definitely be top 3. He would have won the GPF if he even skated at 80% of his potential, it was a who did less awful contest between Chen, Uno, and Kolyada there and Chen did by a bit. And that sums up the mens event this year, it has been pretty awful, that Chen is undefeated even if he were skating well, let alone not even skating that well internationally, just sums up how terrible it has been. At the Games it hopefully wont be that bad, but based on that Kolyada could potentially place as high as anywhere in the mens segment if he skates well. I certainly think he can beat Boyang Jin and Chan as someone had him for certain placing below, in fact given the season so far I fully expect him to outplace both of those.

I give Russia the edge for gold right now. IMO they are stronger than Canada in mens right now, and I dont see Chan having a huge transformation by the Games how he looks right now. Atleast equal or stronger in pairs. Weaker in dance, but far stronger in ladies. Atlhough it close between the two.
Click to expand...

C/B are not doing 4cc. The team for 4cc are H/B, P/P and M/C
 
Braulio said:
Canada needs to put their A Team to try to match the OAR squad that looks strong and capable of finishing top 3 in each of the portions of each discipline hence taking the gold medal once again. For me it has to be: Chan both, Osmond both, D/R both and V/M SD with W/P the Free (They deserve an olympic medal heck Kevin Reynolds has one!!!) there will be one substitution to make but there is no point on using with pairs, same thing with men they are just weak this time outside Chan and Daleman could implode anytime
Click to expand...
I think Chan might do both - his focus is on the team competition, it seems. Takes pressure off and is also his best shot at gold.
Depending on how Gabby skates at Canadians, they may split the ladies, since Canada is strong at both, but if Gabby doesn't show her self at Canadians, Kaetlyn might do both (though Canada might want to save her energy for the individual event)
Dance, I really hope they split. PLEASE give WeaPo a shot!!
I think they'll split pairs, because of the relatively short turnaround, but I'm honesty not sure - none of the 2-4 ranked teams are overly consistent in garnering high scores.
 
I am looking at the teams and ranking them, though teams could change.

1.Canada

D&R
Chan
Osmond/ Daleman
V&M/W&P

Strong in all 4. No longer weak in ladies

2. USA

Sk-K
Chen/Zhou
Tennell
S&S and H&D (or C&B)

Strong in all except pairs.

3.Russia

T&M/S&K
Kolyada
Med/Zag or Sots/Zag
B&S

Strong in one and may be two (if S&K skate clean)

4.China

S&H
Jin
Li
Dance team

Strong in two, but very weak in the other two


5. France
J&C
Besseghier
Meite/Lecavalier
P&C

Strong in ice dance, good in pairs, weak in singles.
They may not split but IMO they should split ice dance to avoid burn out for P&C



6.Italy

M&H/DM &G
Rizzo
Kostner
C&L/G&F

Strong in two, but weak in the other two. They won't split, I think.

ETA- China and Italy could switch placements in my predictions.
 
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Vincent Zhou should be considered, the jumps are there. With the men, it is competition to competition as to whether or not they will skate clean. Give Vincent a shot.

Nagasu - SP. Tennell - FS.

Keep an eye on K. Chen during practice to see how it's going. Ugh! I hate when skaters are left out of the equation. :(

Shibs - SD. H&D - FD.

S-K, K - no-brainer, no choice, :p SP, FS.
 
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Italy in the bronze spot would not shock me, actually. We'll see.

ETA: Honestly, I have not assigned medals, yet ... ice is slippery, so who knows what will happen!! Maybe we have a surprise to come?! :)
 
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I cant see them using 2 dance teams not using the reigning U.S Champions in atleast one so I am almost 100% certain the Shibutanis will do the short dance and Chock & Bates the free dance. I would be willing to bet money on it in fact. That plus Hubbell & Donohue have been doing better than C&B all year, even if C&B sometimes score marginally higher in the FD. IMO the only thing that would change that is Chock & Bates having a huge showing at Four Continents (I forget who was named to there).

The real question is if they use only 1 dance team which would they use to do both programs. Definitely not C&B, but I am not sure which of the other two it would be.

As for Team Russia and some comments in both this thread and the other I could see them doing better than some are saying. For me the person who said they cant even imagine Kolyada possibly being top 3 in the mens short I TOTALLY disagree. Kolyada can definitely be top 3. He would have won the GPF if he even skated at 80% of his potential, it was a who did less awful contest between Chen, Uno, and Kolyada there and Chen did by a bit. And that sums up the mens event this year, it has been pretty awful, that Chen is undefeated even if he were skating well, let alone not even skating that well internationally, just sums up how terrible it has been. At the Games it hopefully wont be that bad, but based on that Kolyada could potentially place as high as anywhere in the mens segment if he skates well. I certainly think he can beat Boyang Jin and Chan as someone had him for certain placing below, in fact given the season so far I fully expect him to outplace both of those. I would even argue he is likely to be top 3 in whichever program he does with only Japan and U.S likely to beat him, and can potentially be even better.

I give Russia the edge for gold right now. IMO they are stronger than Canada in mens right now, and I dont see Chan having a huge transformation by the Games how he looks right now. Atleast equal or stronger in pairs. Weaker in dance, but far stronger in ladies. Atlhough it close between the two.
 
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