The only skaters from this coming weekend who can mathematically make the final are Tsurskaya and Wagner. Even if one of the Japanese skaters from this weekend wins, they will not have enough points to move ahead of Higuchi. If either Tsurskaya or Wagner wins, that winner will make the final. If she comes in second, she will be tied with Higuchi and it will go to the second tie breaker on which both Wagner and Tsurskaya have already beaten Higuchi on the tie breaker. Most likely, if Med withdraws, it will be Higuchi who is the first alternate who gets bumped up.
UPDATED: I guess I had already counted Med out. If Tsurskaya or Wagner wins, she will rank 4th ahead of Kostner. If one of them comes in second, she cannot move ahead of Sotskova and therefore would be 6th. If they go 1-2, the one in 2nd will be first alternate, and Higuchi will then to be second alternate.