Long Program Breakdown: Ladies Olympic Medalists 92-02

Weve3 said:
Although to be fair, I think at least one ;) is pro-Gracie Gold, who does not hold a pose for points.
Click to expand...

Well, before she lost her fitness and competitiveness after 2016 Worlds Gracie Gold was the only skater outside of Russia with a realistic chance of beating Medvedeva ... Now the buzz is around Karen Chen, Ashley Wagner, Mirai Nagasu, Polina Edmunds ... None of which have proven to have the technical fire power or consistency of Medvedeva.
 
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bardtoob said:
Well, before she lost her fitness and competitiveness after 2016 Worlds Gracie Gold was the only skater outside of Russia with a realistic chance of beating Medvedeva ... Now the buzz is around Karen Chen, Ashley Wagner, Mirai Nagasu, Polina Edmunds ... None of which have proven to have the technical fire power or consistency of Medvedeva.
Click to expand...
I agree. If GG can find her way back, I still believe she is the only U.S. lady who can realistically challenge Med. As far as the rest of the U.S. ladies are concerned, the skaters you've mentioned, they would need some help. IMO.

ETA: My apologies for the thread drift ... again. :slinkaway
 
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Alright, I was able to get Kwan's programs done; however, Ito's 88 Olympic Long Program will take some more time (I already had a rough cut of all of Kwan's programs). A preliminary cut of Ito's 88 LP shows about 36.27 seconds of crossovers (which is pretty consistent with her 92 LP). I haven't separated Two-foot skating/posing from Choreography, as there is quite a bit to go through; plus I'm not 100% sure where the footwork sequence is (although, I'm 90% sure its 3:15 - 3:28 in this video). With Ito, I'm thinking of perhaps doing a comparison of the 6.0 Jumpers, looking at 4 different programs of Ito, Harding, and Bonaly, (and maybe add an "air time" measurement).

As for Kwan, the programs and competitions that were looked at were:

96 Worlds Salome
97 Worlds Taj Mahal
98 Nationals Lyra Angelica
99 Nationals Ariane
00 Worlds The Red Violin
01 Worlds Song of the Black Swan
01 Grand Prix Final Miraculous Mandarin
02 Nationals Scheherazade
03 Worlds Aranjuez
04 Nationals Tosca
05 Nationals Bolero (6.0)
05 Worlds Bolero (COP)

There might be a few surprises:
https://youtu.be/Wy56F8-vVgQ

One thing to note is the impact of the spiral sequences. Salome, Taj, Lyra, Ariane, and SOTBS only have a one-position, single-edge spiral, which tend to be the shortest in duration. Scheherazade, Aranjuez, and Tosca have a one-position COE spiral; The Red Violin and Miraculous Mandarin have a COE spiral and a second spiral (back spiral with hand on ice for TRV and a Y spiral for MM); and then both Bolero's have three spirals in their respective sequence. Since I remove required elements and only measure what is in-between the elements, those programs additional spiral positions get short-changed in choreography measurement. For example: Tosca has both a COE spiral and a back spiral with the hand on the ice, but since the back spiral is not part of the sequence (as they are not back-to-back), the back spiral is counted as choreography. The Red Violin, on the other hand, has these two spirals back-to-back (plus some transitional steps in-between), and therefor, they count as one spiral sequence. So, as a result, TRV loses out on about 6 seconds worth of choreography due to the placement of the two spirals. Although, to the benefit of programs with multiple spiral positions, any crossovers done between spirals in the sequence are also not counted (which is typically just one crossover). To give you an idea of the impact, below is a list of the individual spiral times:

TOTAL = (spiral 1) + (spiral 2) + (spiral 3) + [Transitional Elements]

Salome.......... 5.1 = (5.1)
Taj Mahal....... 5.8 = (5.8)
Lyra Angelica.. 4.7 = (4.7)
Ariane........... 6.8 = (6.8)
Red Violin...... 15.4 = (9.4) + (4) + [2]
SOTBS........... 5.1 = (5.1)
M Mandarin.... 11.5 = (6.5) + (2.3) + [2.7]
Scheherazade. 9.7 = (9.7)
Aranjuez........ 6.8 = (6.8)
Tosca............. 7.1 = (7.1)
Bolero 6.0...... 14.3 = (7.6) + (2.7) + (2.6) + [1.4]
Bolero COP..... 15.2= (8.1) + (1.7) + (4.3) + [1.1]


List of results ranked in order of best to worst:

Code: 
+---------------+---------------+
|    PROGRAM    | CROSSOVERS    |
+---------------+---------------+
| 1998 Lyra     | 0:00:47.60    |
| 1999 Ariane   | 0:00:49.97    |
| 1996 Salome   | 0:00:51.00    |
| 1997 Taj      | 0:00:53.37    |
| 2001 MM       | 0:00:54.17    |
| 2005 Bolero 2 | 0:00:55.27    |
| 2005 Bolero 1 | 0:00:57.47    |
| 2002 Schez    | 0:01:00.60    |
| 2003 Aranjuez | 0:01:03.23    |
| 2001 SOTBS    | 0:01:04.17    |
| 2000 TRV      | 0:01:06.63    |
| 2004 Tosca    | 0:01:07.20    |
+---------------+---------------+

+---------------+--------------+
|    PROGRAM    | JUMP PREP    |
+---------------+--------------+
| 1997 Taj      | 0:00:19.00   |
| 1999 Ariane   | 0:00:20.63   |
| 2000 TRV      | 0:00:20.73   |
| 2001 MM       | 0:00:20.87   |
| 2003 Aranjuez | 0:00:21.10   |
| 1998 Lyra     | 0:00:21.63   |
| 2002 Schez    | 0:00:21.70   |
| 2001 SOTBS    | 0:00:21.70   |
| 2005 Bolero 2 | 0:00:21.73   |
| 1996 Salome   | 0:00:22.70   |
| 2004 Tosca    | 0:00:22.87   |
| 2005 Bolero 1 | 0:00:24.33   |
+---------------+--------------+

+---------------+--------------------+
|    PROGRAM    | JUMP PREP PER JUMP |
+---------------+--------------------+
| 1998 Lyra     | 0:00:02.70         |
| 1997 Taj      | 0:00:02.71         |
| 1996 Salome   | 0:00:02.84         |
| 1999 Ariane   | 0:00:02.95         |
| 2000 TRV      | 0:00:02.96         |
| 2001 MM       | 0:00:02.98         |
| 2003 Aranjuez | 0:00:03.01         |
| 2002 Schez    | 0:00:03.10         |
| 2001 SOTBS    | 0:00:03.10         |
| 2005 Bolero 2 | 0:00:03.11         |
| 2004 Tosca    | 0:00:03.27         |
| 2005 Bolero 1 | 0:00:03.48         |
+---------------+--------------------+

+---------------+----------------------+
|    PROGRAM    | TWO FOOT & POSING    |
+---------------+----------------------+
| 2000 TRV      | 0:00:12.10           |
| 2003 Aranjuez | 0:00:16.03           |
| 2005 Bolero 2 | 0:00:16.27           |
| 2004 Tosca    | 0:00:16.40           |
| 1996 Salome   | 0:00:17.30           |
| 1998 Lyra     | 0:00:18.87           |
| 2002 Schez    | 0:00:20.80           |
| 2001 SOTBS    | 0:00:21.03           |
| 2005 Bolero 1 | 0:00:22.07           |
| 1997 Taj      | 0:00:22.28           |
| 2001 MM       | 0:00:25.57           |
| 1999 Ariane   | 0:00:26.97           |
+---------------+----------------------+

+---------------+-----------------+
|    PROGRAM    | CHOREOGRAPHY    |
+---------------+-----------------+
| 1996 Salome   | 0:01:31.03      |
| 1999 Ariane   | 0:01:17.50      |
| 1997 Taj      | 0:01:15.73      |
| 1998 Lyra     | 0:01:12.87      |
| 2002 Schez    | 0:01:11.43      |
| 2001 MM       | 0:01:09.53      |
| 2000 TRV      | 0:01:06.20      |
| 2001 SOTBS    | 0:01:05.77      |
| 2004 Tosca    | 0:01:01.50      |
| 2005 Bolero 1 | 0:00:51.93      |
| 2005 Bolero 2 | 0:00:51.37      |
| 2003 Aranjuez | 0:00:50.93      |
+---------------+-----------------+

EDIT: I just realized I had some mistakes with TRV... had two transitional steps mixed in with the two-foot skating. TRV's two-foot skating time should be 0:00:12.10, and the choreography time should be 0:01:06.20 (making it switch places with SOTBS). Will upload a fixed video shortly.

EDIT 2: Video now updated
 
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I am, in a way, relieved that Michelle resorted to additional "jump prep" and "crossovers" instead of "two-footed skating & posing" during the waning years of her career since it is at least reasonable given her consistency.

In fact, it seems she probably consciously avoided "two-footed skating & posing" given that her 2003, 2004, and 2005 programs are bunched up with the least, in between 2000 and 1996, which were arguably the two peaks of her career.

I suppose it would be balanced to say, none the less, that she did clearly sacrifice choreography in the end.
 
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It is very clear from:

- Crossovers
- Jump Prep per Jump
- Choreography

That Michelle's career can be divided into:

- Pre-2000
- Post-2000

With The Red Violin (TRV) being the transition period, as it follows no trend from either period.

The "two-footed skating & posing" measurements are clearly uniformly randomly distributed throughout her career, so she clearly never intended to depend on it.
 
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Red Violin - Skate America version and Red Violin - Worlds version were widely different.
 
As were her Skate America Song of the Black Swan and Worlds version, even more so. Scheherezade started out with more choreography in the opening as well when it was in the GP series.
 
I think the important part is that the Worlds versions of annual LPs were compared since then it is apples to apples.

Comparing the SA version with the Worlds version of an LP or anything between within the same season could also be reasonable.
 
There's a lot more that I want to do (using either a 3x2 grid or a 4x3 grid), it's just a matter of having the time (and energy) to do them:
  • Original Version vs Final Version (Kwan's TRV, SOTBS, and Schez)
    • This would be pretty easy to do since I already did the final versions.
  • 6.0 Jumpers (Ito vs Harding vs Bonaly)
    • Ideally this would be a 4x3 grid, where 4 different programs for each skater are looked at, but IDK if Bonaly skated to anything other than the Four Seasons (I kid, I kid....).
  • American Warhorses: 6.0 vs COP (Yamaguchi vs Wagner's Swan Lake, Samson & Delilah, and Malaguena)
    • Kind of an odd comparison, but they are the only two American ladies that I know of who skated to the same music in their LPs, where one is pure 6.0 and the other COP.
  • 80's Ladies (Witt vs Thomas vs Kadavy vs Manley vs Trenary vs Ito)
    • 2 programs each between the years 1985-1988.
  • Cohen (Carmen, Rachmaninov, Swan Lake, Swan Puddle, Nutcracker, Romeo & Juliet)
    • Swan Puddle obviously refers to the Robin Wagner version
  • Slutskaya (98, 00, 01, 02, 05, 06)
And then there are all the Men....
 
This is absolutely fascinating! Thank you so much for all the hard work and time you've dedicated to this. Can't wait to see Ito and whatever else you have in store.

Loving your work!!! :cheer:
 
I hear that Elena Liashenko's triple lutz jump preparation was five hundred twenty five thousand six hundred minutes, alone!

All kidding aside, I am wondering if the slightly longer jump preparation between 1992 and 1994 for Nancy Kerrigan, accounted for her improved consistency.

Maybe slowing down slightly meant she was no longer rushing her technique, or something to that effect.

Fascinating analysis, btw.
 
I . . . would . . . like . . . to . . . see . . . an . . . analysis . . . of . . . how . . . much . . . time . . . Elena . . . Freakin' . . . Liashenko . . . spent . . . preparing . . . for . . . her . . . . . . . . . . . . . jumps. :) :COP:
 
If anyone wants to provide a list of 12 skaters (along with a Youtube link to any of their specific long programs), I'll be more than happy to do just a jump preparation breakdown/comparison for them (since that's pretty easy).

I assume Liashenko is one of them (any specific long program though?)
 
CoolGuy said:
If anyone wants to provide a list of 12 skaters (along with a Youtube link to any of their specific long programs), I'll be more than happy to do just a jump preparation breakdown/comparison for them (since that's pretty easy).

I assume Liashenko is one of them (any specific long program though?)
Click to expand...

Here are twelve Free Skates from the European Championships from various seasons during Liashenko's extraordinarily long career. All of the skaters here -- three Ukrainians, three Hungarians, three Russians, two Frenchwomen, and a German -- finished in the top four overall, though not necessarily in the top four in the Free Skate.

I didn't include Irina Slutskaya because the venerable @CoolGuy analyzed her 2002 OSM FS in the original post.

Elena Liashenko 2004
Yulia Lavrenchuk 1997
Galina Maniachenko 2002
Júlia Sebestyén 2004
Krisztina Czakó 1997
Diána Póth 1999
Maria Butyrskaya 1999
Olga Markova 1995
Viktoria Volchkova 1999
Vanessa Gusmeroli 2000
Surya Bonaly 1995
Tanja Szewczenko 1998

The comments about Sjouke Dijkstra in the Volchkova clip are just plain mean. :blah:
 
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Vagabond said:
I . . . would . . . like . . . to . . . see . . . an . . . analysis . . . of . . . how . . . much . . . time . . . Elena . . . Freakin' . . . Liashenko . . . spent . . . preparing . . . for . . . her . . . . . . . . . . . . . jumps. :) :COP:
Click to expand...

I'm going to venture that Liashenko didn't telegraph any more than her contemporaries. I think the look of her telegraphing is what really made it memorable, particularly her signature "dog peeing on a hydrant" 3lutz and "right foot fell asleep and it's just going to dangle here" 3flip setups.

Viva La Freak! :cheer:
 
Vagabond said:
Here are twelve Free Skates from the European Championships from various seasons during Liashenko's extraordinarily long career. All of the skaters here -- three Ukrainians, three Hungarians, three Russians, two Frenchwomen, and a German -- finished in the top four overall, though not necessarily in the top four in the Free Skate.

I didn't include Irina Slutskaya because the venerable @CoolGuy analyzed her 2002 OSM FS in the original post.

Elena Liashenko 2004
Yulia Lavrenchuk 1997
Galina Maniachenko 2002
Júlia Sebestyén 2004
Krisztina Czakó 1997
Diána Póth 1999
Maria Butyrskaya 1999
Olga Markova 1995
Viktoria Volchkova 1999
Vanessa Gusmeroli 2000
Surya Bonaly 1995
Tanja Szewczenko 1998

The comments about Sjouke Dijkstra in the Volchkova clip are just plain mean. :blah:
Click to expand...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CmTVIO3zctE
For the Jump Preparation per jump, I just posted the times at the end.

Code: 
+-------------+------------+
|   SKATER    | JUMP PREP  |
+-------------+------------+
| Butyrskaya  | 0:00:15.50 |
| Bonaly      | 0:00:15.73 |
| Sebestyen   | 0:00:15.80 |
| Markova     | 0:00:17.90 |
| Lavrenchuk  | 0:00:18.73 |
| Poth        | 0:00:20.36 |
| Czako       | 0:00:20.47 |
| Szewczenko  | 0:00:22.20 |
| Maniachenko | 0:00:23.83 |
| Liashenko   | 0:00:24.40 |
| Gusmeroli   | 0:00:24.93 |
| Volchkova   | 0:00:27.23 |
+-------------+------------+

+-------------+--------------------+
|   SKATER    | JUMP PREP PER JUMP |
+-------------+--------------------+
| Butyrskaya  | 0:00:01.94         |
| Bonaly      | 0:00:02.25         |
| Sebestyen   | 0:00:02.26         |
| Markova     | 0:00:02.56         |
| Czako       | 0:00:02.56         |
| Volchkova   | 0:00:02.72         |
| Szewczenko  | 0:00:02.78         |
| Poth        | 0:00:02.91         |
| Maniachenko | 0:00:02.98         |
| Lavrenchuk  | 0:00:03.12         |
| Liashenko   | 0:00:03.49         |
| Gusmeroli   | 0:00:03.56         |
+-------------+--------------------+
 
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This has been really interesting to think about. Judges would be able to see how long a prep for a jump is, but would they be as aware of one skater doing more crossovers than another skater - would that change their rating of a skater?
 
Weve3 said:
Oksana is an Olympic Champion, and she deserves to be. When a skater makes it look as easy as she did, and people feel like they can get out there themselves and move across the ice as she could...

You cannot train that. Oksana was a natural. :oksana1:

ETA: She did much more than just pose. Nancy could never skate using her whole body from head to toe as Oksana did. Nobody could. Scott Hamilton commented as much. He was correct, and her competitors knew it.
Click to expand...

ITA!

To each their own. Team Oksana all the way. I was so happy she got the gold. Well deserved. :oksana1:
 
bardtoob said:
Well, before she lost her fitness and competitiveness after 2016 Worlds Gracie Gold was the only skater outside of Russia with a realistic chance of beating Medvedeva ... Now the buzz is around Karen Chen, Ashley Wagner, Mirai Nagasu, Polina Edmunds ... None of which have proven to have the technical fire power or consistency of Medvedeva.
Click to expand...
At this point I would be happy if any of these US ladies pulled off a silver or bronze medal at the Olympics.
 
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