Is there any skater who you think is likely to sweep the upcoming quad

[KimGOAT]

I hope this does not happen as I always like to see some back and forth rivalries but do you think in any of the events, and if so which ones and which skater(s) do you believe will end up sweeping the quad (and yes predictions of this sort often end up wrong anyway).

Unfortunately (not since I dislike them but since like I said I prefer to see some back and forth) I do think there is one event and one team this will take place. I believe Papadakis & Cizeron will most likely win the next 5 worlds and the next Olympics.

I think this is the only event this will happen though. While Nathan Chen, Tarasova & Morozov, Sui & Han, Medvedeva (especialy since Zagitova will probably retire) all have potential to sweep all 4-5 worlds and the next Olympics I honestly don't think any will do this. In fact I wouldn't be surprised if nobody besides Papadakis & Cizeron win more than 2 of the next 5 worlds, even if some of them might win the OGM with that.

 

[leolion11]

Imo I would think only P/C are likely to win the next few world championships, but there's a always a possibility of new competitors coming up, like what happened with P/C in 14/15.

Also why does everyone think Zagitova is going to retire?? Did she actually mention that? She's only 15 and I think she still has time to develop her artistry.

 

[nuge]

[QUOTE="l
Also why does everyone think Zagitova is going to retire?? Did she actually mention that? She's only 15 and I think she still has time to develop her artistry.[/QUOTE]

When you think of Slutskaya how many Euros she won she was around for so long!

 

[berthesghost]

Cop and the increased technical skills have made sweeping a relic of the past and I’m not sure that’s a bad thing

Also why does everyone think Zagitova is going to retire?? Did she actually mention that? She's only 15 and I think she still has time to develop her artistry.

i believe she did, at least as per what nbc reported. There are apparently Russian juniors landing quads and that’s why as rediculous as it sounds, nbc kept stressing that this was the one and only shot at ogm the two teenagers had.

 

[jlai]

Imo I would think only P/C are likely to win the next few world championships, but there's a always a possibility of new competitors coming up, like what happened with P/C in 14/15.

Also why does everyone think Zagitova is going to retire?? Did she actually mention that? She's only 15 and I think she still has time to develop her artistry.

There was speculation that Zag doesn't really enjoy skating

 

[BlueRidge]

There was speculation that Zag doesn't really enjoy skating

really? You sure couldn't see that.

 

[Foolhardy Ham Lint]

With the technical level of the sport across the board at a new extreme, skating a clean event, and building one's stock by doing so, is extremely challenging. Injuries are and seasonal surgeries are becoming the new normal at the elite level.

Good old reliable Nathan Detroit found that out after throwing it down at US Nationals, and struggling for two of three segments at the Olympics. Granted, he is only eighteen. But will he be able to maintain six quadruple free skates for the next quadrennium without burning out? I hope he puts together two clean skates in Milan and makes the podium.

The Russian and Japanese ladies, with so much depth in their respective countries, may mean a completely new set of faces by next year or 2020. Competition is that tough.

 

[jlai]

really? You sure couldn't see that.

Sorry there was only one speculating post but it is a reliable poster. See the ladies Lp thread

 

[BlueRidge]

Sorry there was only one speculating post but it is a reliable poster. See the ladies Lp thread

thanks. I guess we'll see what happens whether she continues or retires from comp. Of course she could love skating and retire to shows.

I must say I miss shows with international skaters in the US. Those were the days.

 

[judgejudy27]

Zagitova will probably retire for the simple reason the OGM winner never continues. Although my feeling is Medvedeva would have been more likely to continue had she won the OGM than Zagitova currently is, but we will never know (atleast for these Olympics) on that. The only times the lady OGM really continued since Witt, and I dont mean in some sort of half assed way like skating in Russia only a few times like Sotnikova, or showing up at 1 more Worlds again only in your own country out of shape and coming a generous 6th like Hughes, was Kim, and even Kim rarely competed after 2010, and probably doesnt continue at all if the Korean fed doesnt beg her to skate some more. It is well known Witt only continued due to insistent by the East German fed., and eventually her only hope of being allowed to the U.S and having a pro career being a 2nd OGM. So while Zagitova could buck the trend there really isnt reason to expect her to continue. Even those people nearly everyone expected to continue at the time like Yamaguchi, Baiul, and to some degree Lipinski and Sotnikova, did not.

 

[leolion11]

Zagitova will probably retire for the simple reason the OGM winner never continues. Although my feeling is Medvedeva would have been more likely to continue had she won the OGM than Zagitova currently is, but we will never know (atleast for these Olympics) on that. The only times the lady OGM really continued since Witt, and I dont mean in some sort of half assed way like skating in Russia only a few times like Sotnikova, or showing up at 1 more Worlds again only in your own country out of shape and coming a generous 6th like Hughes, was Kim, and even Kim rarely competed after 2010, and probably doesnt continue at all if the Korean fed doesnt beg her to skate some more. It is well known Witt only continued due to insistent by the East German fed., and eventually her only hope of being allowed to the U.S and having a pro career being a 2nd OGM. So while Zagitova could buck the trend there really isnt reason to expect her to continue. Even those people nearly everyone expected to continue at the time like Yamaguchi, Baiul, and to some degree Lipinski and Sotnikova, did not.

Oh gosh I forgot that almost everyone else retired after they won OGM It would be such a shame for Alina to retire though - I really do think she can do so much more if she stays in the sport. Hope it's not an issue of her not enjoying skating like some poster above mentioned too

But on a side note, I remember this exact question popping up on fsu right after the 2014 olympics and everyone was betting on Yuzuru to dominate worlds in the next quad. We all know how things turned out

 

[SmallFairy]

The ladies aren't continuing, but thankfully Hanyu were! I like so much that the men stay long. Ok, Yuzu didn't win every title the last quad, but I wouldn't excactly call those years of his career he gave us some quite stellar performances on various occasions

 

[judgejudy27]

Well I think in the case of Zagitova it might come down to the offers she gets in Russia. I dont know as much about the Russian pro scene as the North American, other than the North American is dead (despite Canada Stars on Ice being pretty good) and Russia is more profitable than them, although Japan is the real king here these days. I think in fairness to Sotnikova she genuinely did plan on continuing post Sochi, which a lot probably dont realize/believe. I had heard she missed the post Olympics Worlds since she was strongly advised not to go and risk losing after her Olympic win (particularly after the controversy of her win, and if she didnt win worlds probably the 'I told you so' type chants). Which if it really is the case totally sucks as with Asada's string of dubious < calls and Kostner's LP splat, she would have had a great shot to win her first and only World title here. Then in the coming years I think she fully expected to return, but she got such lucrative pro and touring opportunities that to train the 100% to stay on top with the depth in Russia which have required her giving up a lot of those, and she has an ill sister (I believe) and other family she felt commited to help, and to capatilize on her OGM window. So eventually, combined with some injuries, led her to never really returning, even if she competed a bit in Russia the 2015-2016 season. Zagitova it might be a similar situation where maybe she does plan to continue now, but who knows what opportunities come up and if she feels she can pass that up while her OGM window exists.

 

[Meoima]

Russian ladies will sweep the next quad as well. I think so.

 

[judgejudy27]

While that isnt a bad prediction, I have this odd feeling the Russians wont dominate this quad like the last one. They might well still win the most and have someone win the next OGM but I think some non Russian(s) will win at worlds too. Zagitova will probably retire as has already been covered. Medvedeva meanwhile I think will have a hard time continuing her prior dominane, even if Zagitova retires as expected, since her aura and once that is broken it is hard to fully get back. I still think she can win more worlds and quite possibly the next Olympics, but I dont see her dominating the same way. And there is no Russian besides those two who is a potential dominant skater that I see, medal contenders, but nobody with potential to dominate.

 

[Fairuza]

While that isnt a bad prediction, I have this odd feeling the Russians wont dominate this quad like the last one. They might well still win the most and have someone win the next OGM but I think some non Russian(s) will win at worlds too. Zagitova will probably retire as has already been covered. Medvedeva meanwhile I think will have a hard time continuing her prior dominane, even if Zagitova retires as expected, since her aura and once that is broken it is hard to fully get back. I still think she can win more worlds and quite possibly the next Olympics, but I dont see her dominating the same way. And there is no Russian besides those two who is a potential dominant skater that I see, medal contenders, but nobody with potential to dominate.

There are other Eteri girls coming. Have a look at what happened at the JGPF. At least some of them might well be able to supplant Evgenia or Alina, if they fail to continue.
That said, I do hope the Japanese or Korean girls put up a good fight.

 

[Vash01]

Russian ladies will sweep the next quad as well. I think so.

I think Japan has some young and strong ladies who are likely to challenge the Russians. It will be an interesting battle.

I would have said Zagitova will dominate the next quad, but given the competition in Russia i am not sure she will remain their number one. How quickly the RSF dumped their two time world champion after she got injured! One injury or one bad performance and Zag could fall out of favor. She was extremely lucky this time that Med got injured or she may have finished with a silver or even bronze.

I see Sui and Han dominating the next quad, barring injury. With the retirement of S&M (after worlds) and D&R, i dint see many pairs challenging them unless T&M learn from this experience and get better programs and develop some consistency. Next Olympics are in Beijing, so that could help S&H too. I would like them to get better music though. The war horse Turandot worked as long as they were skating clean. S&M had a better program.

I don't see Hanyu dominating the next quad. It will all depend on his health. I dont see him compete against healthy young skaters like Chen, Jin and Uno (there could be more). I would love to see him win a third OGM though, and tie with Sonia Henie (Sp?) and Irina Rodnina.

Ice dance - P&C should dominate unless a surprise team shows up, like P&C themselves did. Will V&M show up again to win their third OGM?

 

[Meoima]

I think Japan has some young and strong ladies who are likely to challenge the Russians. It will be an interesting battle.

Japanese ladies are good but their PCS are still low. We shall see how the new set of rules will affect the judging.

 

[Vash01]

Japanese ladies are good but their PCS are still low. We shall see how the new set of rules will affect the judging.

I think once they start landing the 3A consistently, their PCS will zoom up.

 

[judgejudy27]

I think the odds of another V&M return are something extremely close to 0%. I wasnt even that surprised they came back this quad, post Sochi I would have given V&M and D&W both about 35-40% odds of returning at some point (which I guess makes roughly 60% 1 of the 2 would as happened). Not this time. They have a historic Olympic medal count now, they have met all their goals including regaining their Olympic and World golds, and winning the elusive GPF. They have competed at the top level over a decade. They have made the best possible case for themselves they could ever make of being the best dance team ever, or one of the best ever, and anyone who thinks they arent (which btw is a valid opinion, dont get me wrong there) wont ever at this point, nothing they could do from here would change anyones mind.

So in all there is absolutely zero reason to ever return now. Also when they returned this time people were excited to see them, and they were almost sentimental favorites of all, including even the judges, after ending their last run with a string of losses to Davis & White. If they returned again, no way, except for Canada. It would be more of a "why the heck are you back again now" kind of reaction. Lastly it took their best performances ever at an unlikely age to barely hold off the much younger French. And they are going to think they can return at a much more "too old" type age for dance and do it with the French having had years of improving. Not to mention the Shibs and all the other younger teams who might continue. They might be confident, but they arent stupid. If V&M ever return to amateur at this point I will be beyond amazed, and I think even their nuttiest ubers would agree.

If P&C are to be challenged/beaten or even denied the OGM again it wont be from V&M, that is for sure.

As for Zagitova, even if she surprises me and continues past this season at all (that would already legit surprised me as I explained why) I will be amazed if she competes all the way through the next Olympics, never mind dominates all the way through to the next Olympics. Not nearly as amazed as a V&M return mind you, but still really surprised. That isnt hating, it is based on some very clear evidence. If she even competes say another 2 seasons and retires she will already have majorly bucked a trend for female OGM winners.

Hanyu I would also be really surprised if he even tried to compete to the next Olympics (although ironically less than the much younger Zagitova just since the mens precedent is pretty different than the womens) although I could see him go another 2 years quite possibly, but not for an entire quad now that he has his 2nd OGM already imparticular.

 

[judgejudy27]

Call me crazy but I think there is an outside shot of Savchenko & Massot competing to the next Olympics (just based on Alina's recent interviews and comments) and a quite good shot they compete until the 2020 worlds. While I dont think they are realistically going to dominate the entire quad at the ages they already are, I could see them scoring some more wins before leaving and thus interfering with another teams potential dominance (eg- Sui & Han, Tarasova & Morozov).

 

[screech]

Japanese ladies are good but their PCS are still low. We shall see how the new set of rules will affect the judging.

I think once they start landing the 3A consistently, their PCS will zoom up.

Though I think Satoko was a bit undermarked here, I think Kaetlyn is a good indication that it is possible to challenge the young Russians. With an a jumping error that cost her about 2 points (depending on GOE if she'd done it cleanly), she was still just 4 points off first place in the LP. And this in a program that only had 4 jumps in the second half!
And she was second in PCS (almost 2 points behind Medvedeva, which I think is a bit much, but still - HUGE improvement).

 

[Meoima]

Though I think Satoko was a bit undermarked here, I think Kaetlyn is a good indication that it is possible to challenge the young Russians. With an a jumping error that cost her about 2 points (depending on GOE if she'd done it cleanly), she was still just 4 points off first place in the LP. And this in a program that only had 4 jumps in the second half!
And she was second in PCS (almost 2 points behind Medvedeva, which I think is a bit much, but still - HUGE improvement).

Kaetlyn almost never skated clean her FS though. I am glad she did that well at the Olympics but still... it’s like once in a blue moon chance. Or actually it’s the skate of her life or anything near it.

 

[judgejudy27]

I think Osmond absolutely has the potential to challenge the Russians, even Medvedeva and/or Zagitova if they stay (I fully expect Med. to stay to the next Olympics), or any of the others. She just has to get more consistent, and plan her strategy particularly in the LP better. As she shows more consistency her GOE and PCS will rise rapidly even for similar caliber skating, granted there are things in her skating she can still improve too. The judges love consistent skaters, and even tend to overmark them, which Osmond has not proven to the judges she is yet.

Miyahara though will never challenge the top Russians, and sadly this was probably her only shot ever at an Olympic medal. She could still get another world medal before retiring, and I am happy she had a really good Olympic experience for herself when it looked like a few months ago she wouldnt even make the team. Kaori might have potential to challenge the Russians in the future, even if it would take quite a bit of improvement, she does show a lot of potential. And there are even younger Japanese coming up behind her.

And of course Russia as usual has a lot of super promising youngsters coming through the pipeline.

 

[screech]

Kaetlyn almost never skated clean her FS though. I am glad she did that well at the Olympics but still... it’s like once in a blue moon chance. Or actually it’s the skate of her life or anything near it.

The judges showed that if she were a more consistent skater, she could have won. Doesn't matter that she wasn't a Russian teenager who backloads. It's a step in the right direction, showing that a well-balanced program has a shot.

 

[WildRose]

Kaetlyn almost never skated clean her FS though. I am glad she did that well at the Olympics but still... it’s like once in a blue moon chance. Or actually it’s the skate of her life or anything near it.

Kaetlyn is the reigning World Silver medalist, as well as being the Olympic bronze medalist, and she’s only 22. Her long program was only 4.5 pts behind the two tied Russians, and that was with an error. That’s nothing with the kind of marks the top women are getting. And Gabby Daleman, the World Bronze medalist, is even younger, and rumoured to be working on a quad toe. She had a disastrous skate in singles but she skated very well in the Team event and is only going to get better with Brian Orser as her coach. Don’t rule the Canadian girls out for the next quad.

 

[Meoima]

Kaetlyn is the reigning World Silver medalist, as well as being the Olympic bronze medalist, and she’s only 22. Her long program was only 4.5 pts behind the two tied Russians, and that was with an error. That’s nothing with the kind of marks the top women are getting. And Gabby Daleman, the World Bronze medalist, is even younger, and rumoured to be working on a quad toe. She had a disastrous skate in singles but she skated very well in the Team event and is only going to get better with Brian Orser as her coach. Don’t rule the Canadian girls out for the next quad.

It would be amazing if Canadian ladies can challenge the Russians. But still the consistency is a big question mark. I don’t blame them. They skate fast and jump huge. But we know in this sport judges prefer young ladies and consistency, see how Zhenia got beat by her own game. It’s going to be very difficult for the Canadian ladies. They do have chance but they have to improve their consistency.

 

[ToFarAwayTimes]

I think Osmond absolutely has the potential to challenge the Russians, even Medvedeva and/or Zagitova if they stay (I fully expect Med. to stay to the next Olympics), or any of the others. She just has to get more consistent, and plan her strategy particularly in the LP better. As she shows more consistency her GOE and PCS will rise rapidly even for similar caliber skating, granted there are things in her skating she can still improve too. The judges love consistent skaters, and even tend to overmark them, which Osmond has not proven to the judges she is yet.

Miyahara though will never challenge the top Russians, and sadly this was probably her only shot ever at an Olympic medal. She could still get another world medal before retiring, and I am happy she had a really good Olympic experience for herself when it looked like a few months ago she wouldnt even make the team. Kaori might have potential to challenge the Russians in the future, even if it would take quite a bit of improvement, she does show a lot of potential. And there are even younger Japanese coming up behind her.

And of course Russia as usual has a lot of super promising youngsters coming through the pipeline.

I am heartbroken for Miyahara. If anyone deserved a medal this quad, it was her. She was at an extreme disadvantage compared to the other girls and she worked harder than anyone, developed her artistry more than anyone, and gave two of the best skates of her life. I don't know if she will try for 2022 or not, and she may be surpassed by others even if she does, but I would never count that girl out. She's a good one.

Kaori will absolutely be a top contender in the next 4 years. She needs refinement but she's the most talented of them all.

 

[Vash01]

It would be amazing if Canadian ladies can challenge the Russians. But still the consistency is a big question mark. I don’t blame them. They skate fast and jump huge. But we know in this sport judges prefer young ladies and consistency, see how Zhenia got beat by her own game. It’s going to be very difficult for the Canadian ladies. They do have chance but they have to improve their consistency.

That applies to the US ladies too. I expect Bradie to get in the mix in a couple years, assuming she will improve her PCS.

 

[manhn]

Kaetlyn is certainly inconsistent with her long program, but she is very reliable short program skater. If she skates her short in Italy exactly as she did in the individual, she will magically get 80+.