IF All Ladies skated clean in Nagano 1998 ...

[alchemy void]

In 1998.

She could do it 1991

Nice! Totally forgot about that. I stand corrected.

Hey, at least she attempted it and landed some in her career in the past. Bobek never attempted an outside edge. I guess we'd have to include edges when it comes to "clean" then. I thought "clean" just meant rotation. In that case, Lipinski and Kwan and Slutskaya also all do clearly clean Lutzes. There will be no lips either.

Yeah. I think Bobek doing a correct outside edge lutz is too unrealistic even for this hypothetical exercise. She only had maximum 6 triples planned, too, which means she's out of the picture here.

I still like the program, even though it's basic. I loved that blingy Nationals dress.

 

[sonsofanarchy]

I have a feeling the judges would not let Bobek win the bronze unless she skated perfectly and the event were skated down to its actual 98 level at the best. Maybe even lower than that. I don't think the judges as a rule like podium sweeps. So often the 3rd Russian pair or dance team were sacrificial lambs, especialy in Olympics, and they are probably liking an American sweep even less than a Russian one.

 

[bardtoob]

The same would apply to Bonaly, there are many elements she could never do as well as 93-95, or some she could no longer do at all.

The reverse is also true, Bonaly couldn't really skate from 93-95 but actually flowed across the ice rather well in 98.

 

[sonsofanarchy]

The reverse is also true, Bonaly couldn't really skate from 93-95 but actually flowed across the ice rather well in 98.

I don't know, I kind of thought that too when watching her short, but her long and how it was constructed really displayed and exposed her choppiness which looked as bad as ever (while no longer being near the jumper she was previous eihter).

 

[tony]

I don't know, I kind of thought that too when watching her short, but her long and how it was constructed really displayed and exposed her choppiness which looked as bad as ever (while no longer being near the jumper she was previous eihter).

It was a program she first used in 1993. But I still think the flow and existence of some kind of edges was better.

 

[casken]

Did she ever land a successful 3-3 during the season? If so, I just think the judges who absolutely loved her would have given her podium-worthy marks.

She did both 3sal/3 loop and 3toe/3toe in the LP at worlds. They both had a three-turn on the landing, but they were landed.

Had she not fallen on the flip she probably would have won the LP, considering Kwan only did 5 triples at worlds.

I think Bobek only had six planned triples. 2 flips ...

Hey now, Sarah Hughes won the Olympics with 2 flips.

 

[tony]

@casken - Kwan did 6 triples at Worlds. Slutskaya was battling Butyrskaya for silver on a 5-4 split after Butyrskaya had that huge fall skating backwards towards the end of her program. Slutskaya wasn't going to win that free skate regardless (choreography mark was for sure going to go down), but I've always wondered had Butyrskaya gotten through her program without that huge break in momentum if she possibly would've taken an ordinal or two from Michelle.

 

[casken]

@casken - Kwan did 6 triples at Worlds.

You're right. I misremembered the fall on the axel as a fall on a triple jump.

 

[VGThuy]

Either way, Worlds was the worst she performed that program, which was still good enough to win. She did less clean triples at the Goodwill Games later that summer but she was really fast and kind of on fire. And on Olympic-sized ice. It made me think she could be fast in Nagano too if she hadn’t lost some crucial weeks leading up to it and let go.

 

[ЭPiKUilyam]

Either way, Worlds was the worst she performed that program, which was still good enough to win. She did less clean triples at the Goodwill Games later that summer but she was really fast and kind of on fire. And on Olympic-sized ice. It made me think she could be fast in Nagano too if she hadn’t lost some crucial weeks leading up to it and let go.

Kwan? What crucial weeks did Kwan lose leading up to Nagano? She was completely reocovered. Even recovered enough to water down her content in the SP to a simple 3toe from the much much more difficult 3flip or 3loop that all her other top competitors were doing. Quite risky if she was stilll "injured" and her 3toe was too painful. Or does that show her tough mettle and guts by going back to the 3toe in the short?
"See how strong she is?!?! She decided to do 3toe instead of 3flip in her SP!!! She's SOOOO amazing..." To me it just sounds like she watered down the content and relied on her second mark. Major FAIL on her part. Too bad, so sad. Wimping out usually doesn't get chamionship titles. As she learned the hard way.

 

[VGThuy]

You don’t think being in a cast for four weeks in December hampered her training? By all accounts, she was actually horrible in practice at nationals and that skate there was a surprise. She did one 3toe in SP by February out of strategy with actually worked out but that doesn’t mean she felt good enough to do a 3/3. And talk to the prior Olympic champions who won with less-than-stellar skates who didn’t land the amount of triples she did to win her silver. I’m sure she needs you to explain things to her considering all of her titles. Are you saying she wasn’t really injured? You seem to be projecting a lot not anger towards her. She won silver and you still seem angry.

 

[sonsofanarchy]

I do think there is a decent chance healthy Kwan does the 3 toe-3 toe for the simple reason she did it often in 96, 97, 99, 2000, and 2001. 96 worlds she didn't do it but that is because the 3 toe in the 3 toe-2 toe combo did not have enough speed for a 3 toe. 97 worlds she did it. 99 worlds she did not, but she had no mathematical chance of gold and was probably going for the clean skate to try for silver. 2000 and 2001 worlds she did. And many other events those seasons when able. It wouldn't so much be as strategy, as it is something she could do, and she would want to do her most difficult elements possible as per normal.

The funny thing is with the toe injury she was landing a 3 loop-3 loop in practice at Nationals that year, the only time her whole career she was doing that. Maybe she should have tried that in her Nagano free skate, as I imagine if she also does a 3 loop-3 loop there is just no way the judges give it to Tara, even with Kwan's slow skate.

 

[ЭPiKUilyam]

You don’t think being in a cast for four weeks in December hampered her training? By all accounts, she was actually horrible in practice at nationals and that skate there was a surprise. She did one 3toe in SP by February out of strategy with actually worked out but that doesn’t mean she felt good enough to do a 3/3. And talk to the prior Olympic champions who won with less-than-stellar skates who didn’t land the amount of triples she did to win her silver. I’m sure she needs you to explain things to her considering all of her titles. Are you saying she wasn’t really injured? You seem to be projecting a lot not anger towards her. She won silver and you still seem angry.

NO. I was overJOYED that she 'won' the silver with her watered down content. She could have been down much further had her competitors other than Tara risen to the occasion.

 

[LarrySK8]

I have re-watched Vanessa again in the LP. The music is a 6.0. The costuming, hair and make up is a 5.8.

However, while the choreography has some original accent moves and some good arm movement and arm positions in spins, I saw all of the jumps preceded by 5 or 6 back crossovers and nearly all of them exited into 2 foot skating. I saw a lot of two foot skating. I saw a lot of use of the lunge and ina positions. Not certain of the pattern and placements of the jumps in the program (TV kills that) but she did fill out that huge rink. It seemed like the program was all elements linked by crossovers and 2 foot skating. While I love the music, etc. to me the program did not live up to it. Kind of generic looking overall - a skate-jump-skate-jump-skate-jump-spin opening//slow section//two triple and footwork ending.

5.6 for artistic won't come close to the others in the mix for medals, even clean.

 

[sonsofanarchy]

Despite winning the world bronze I don't think Gusmeroli came into Nagano with a lot of momentum. I am not sure she was even considered the top French hopeful between herself, Hubert, and Bonaly. All 3 were kind of in a similar dark horse-ish type role, but Hubert seemed to be getting a bit more hype than the other 2 due to her win over Lipinski that season. I don't think she would have medaled unless she really had a terrific skate and seriously outclassed the other bronze contenders.

And worlds later that season was telling when she fell on the double axel in the short, when her short program is a spectacularly choreographed piece and was dumped to something like 9th or 10th in the short, while Slutskaya and Butyrskaya both totally blew the combo, and Butyrskaya had other mistakes/tight landings and they were up in 4th and 5th.

 

[olympic]

Butyrskaya was not doing 3+3 seq until 2000 season. She often was only doing 6 triples in Otonal in ‘98.

I still think based on when she and Irina skated similarly and them giving it to Maria (several times that season), she would’ve easily beaten Irina in Nagano had they both skated clean. I thought Irina actually deserved 4th in the LP over Maria as it was, as Maria was not very good but she still pulled it off 5-4 (and lost bronze 5-4).

Tanja, as I mentioned in my first post, was the story of the year. She wasn’t going to be pushed behind both Maria and Irina. She actually may have beaten both of them if she could get the crowd behind her and skate like she did at CSFinal.

Gusmeroli, as much as I think her LP really was a masterpiece (and a great SP too) probably just wouldn’t have been a factor with those five plus a clean, emotional Chen.

Bobek, I have no idea what the judges would’ve done but I can’t say her LP that season was extremely riveting.

Butyrskaya - Thanks for that info. I did not know about the 3-3 seq. It is interesting how she cleaned up that year. Her 5-4 margin vs. Lu means that a clean performance by her could've given her a Bronze medal at Nagano: I think she had more mistakes (?) than Lu in the LP which meant more room to grow her marks. I don't think Lu had a clean 3-3 in a long time so that wasn't w/in her capabilities that season. BTW, an Olympic medal probably would've meant her retirement: No '02 Olympics. She stated on the road to SLC that if she had a medal in Nagano and the World Championship, she would've called it a day.

Slutskaya - A poster above noted she landed two 3-3s and beat Butyrskaya at '98 Worlds (although it was noted that Butyrskaya had a random fall), and Slute did land a 3T-3T at another point in the season. Would that have been enough tech firepower to carry her over Butyrskaya?

But Gusmeroli in 1997 was 2nd after the SP. Some even thought she should've beaten Tara. Wouldn't that count towards a high final placement? I realize that it wouldn't have held against the 2 Russians after the LP but there would've been a lot of ground for someone like Lu or Szewczenko to make up if Gusmeroli was also clean in the LP?

I agree that Szewczenko was the skating story of the year and both her Evita SP and Speed LP were well-chosen. Still, Slute, Bute and Gusmeroli all had solo 3L's in the SP and Szewczenko was doing a simpler 3T (Maybe there was more going on in the SP to allow her to get in the mix, IDK). In the LP, there was a lot of rest periods and 2 foot skating in the LP for her to stay competitive all the way to the end. I go to rewatch that LP because it is so inspiring, but where would the judges put her w/ all competitors clean?

Lu's story tracked closely with Szewczenko's story. As stated she wasn't going to have a 3-3 which meant her improvements were only a clean 3F and there wasn't going to be a higher 2nd mark. The judges gave her straight 5.5s for tech in the LP. Would that have held up against these other 4 ladies all clean?

Bobek as the #3 American would probably have been somewhere high up in the penultimate group

---------

One interesting aspect of the LP: Surya Bonaly would not have made the final group. IOW, Tara would not have skated after her. There has been speculation that Tara's 2nd mark was boosted by following Bonaly (serious contrast). Begs the question - Would Tara's mark have been altered following a better skater (any of the above)???

 

[Vagabond]

If all Ladies had skated clean in Nagano, Laëtitia Hubert would have won, the world as we know it would have ended, and we wouldn't even be having this discussion.

 

[Marco]

My take:

SP:

1. Kwan 5.6/5.9 No doubt for me, even with the 3toe.
2. Bobek 5.6/5.8 If she skated anyway like she did at Nationals, the circular steps and spins were wonderful.
3. Butyrskaya 5.6/5.7 Torn for her to be in 2nd but IIRC she skated way early.
4. Chen 5.4/5.8 Poor spins and big gap into 3toe wouldn't change even if clean.
5. Slutskaya 5.7/5.4 Winning the first mark, but the program wasn't my fave.
6. Lipinski 5.5/5.6 Not a big fan of the axel and flying camel, nor the relatively immature program.

LP:

1. Kwan 5.7/5.9 I give her the win with a better flip, sal and 2nd loop.
2. Chen 5.6/5.9 With 6 fully rotated triples and some rare solid spins that night, the 2nd mark should carry her over.
3. Lipinski 5.8/5.7 No way for her to win for me if the top 2 were clean. The whole is much less than the sum of the parts.
4. Butyrskaya 5.6/5.7 She was either repeating the toe or loop as her 6th triple. The 5.7 was if she was smooth like in the short, not stiff like the free.
5. Bobek 5.6/5.6 Similar content to Maria but a less complete program, Would place her 4th if Maria was stiff.
6. Slutskaya 5.7/5.5 I am counting one 3/3 and 6 triples total. Losing 4th and 5th ordinal from me on maturity.

Overall

1. Kwan 1.5
2. Chen 4
3. Butyrskaya 5.5
4 Lipinski 6
5. Bobek 6
6. Slutskaya 8.5

I am leaving Rechnio, Hubert and Gusmeroli off my top 6, because esp. the first 2 tend to make unforced errors even if clean (i.e.gap between steps and jump, spin issues, steps and spirals content etc). My scoring for 1998 Worlds ladies short should make that clear.

 

[viennese]

Was this another event in which skaters got struck down by the Olympic Village flu?
It used to sound fancy and princessy for athletes to stay in hotels/away from crowded dorm conditions during the Olympics. Nowadays it seems smart and prescient.

 

[sonsofanarchy]

My take:

SP:

1. Kwan 5.6/5.9 No doubt for me, even with the 3toe.
2. Bobek 5.6/5.8 If she skated anyway like she did at Nationals, the circular steps and spins were wonderful.
3. Butyrskaya 5.6/5.7 Torn for her to be in 2nd but IIRC she skated way early.
4. Chen 5.4/5.8 Poor spins and big gap into 3toe wouldn't change even if clean.
5. Slutskaya 5.7/5.4 Winning the first mark, but the program wasn't my fave.
6. Lipinski 5.5/5.6 Not a big fan of the axel and flying camel, nor the relatively immature program.

LP:

1. Kwan 5.7/5.9 I give her the win with a better flip, sal and 2nd loop.
2. Chen 5.6/5.9 With 6 fully rotated triples and some rare solid spins that night, the 2nd mark should carry her over.
3. Lipinski 5.8/5.7 No way for her to win for me if the top 2 were clean. The whole is much less than the sum of the parts.
4. Butyrskaya 5.6/5.7 She was either repeating the toe or loop as her 6th triple. The 5.7 was if she was smooth like in the short, not stiff like the free.
5. Bobek 5.6/5.6 Similar content to Maria but a less complete program, Would place her 4th if Maria was stiff.
6. Slutskaya 5.7/5.5 I am counting one 3/3 and 6 triples total. Losing 4th and 5th ordinal from me on maturity.

Overall

1. Kwan 1.5
2. Chen 4
3. Butyrskaya 5.5
4 Lipinski 6
5. Bobek 6
6. Slutskaya 8.5

I am leaving Rechnio, Hubert and Gusmeroli off my top 6, because esp. the first 2 tend to make unforced errors even if clean (i.e.gap between steps and jump, spin issues, steps and spirals content etc). My scoring for 1998 Worlds ladies short should make that clear.

Is that how you would have scored it or how you are thinking the judges would have scored it. Since there is a big difference. I am guessing it is your scores since Butyrskaya and Slutskaya for instance scored on average that high or higher from most judges in the long with far below par performances, especialy Butyrskaya. And no way the judges put a clean Chen over a clean Lipinski (I don't see them putting her over Butyrskaya even if both are clean this year).

 

[sonsofanarchy]

No, it's not silly. The original prompt just said "clean". People are adding their own interpretations as to what that means. I took it literally as in "ALL Ladies Skated CLEAN in Nagano 1998". Without further directives or definitions or constraints, I took it to be the plain meaning of the thread title and prompt, which is all I could go by. Clean means all of Lu Chen's jumps would be landed and fully rotated, including her 3toe/3toe attempt. And I was only talking about jumps, not the rest of Chen's skating. And I never said anything about her beating Kwan and Lipinski. Again, that's you adding more to the words written.

Sorry I didn't notice this earlier. I thought you were implying she would have had the potential for gold by this specific comment:

If we're saying "clean", I'm going to assume Lu Chen's jumps would be fully rotated and have the same snap and execution as her prime (or close to it). If we're talking about THAT scenario, then I can see Lu Chen winning it on presentation even with those spins.

I now see you meant the bronze, when you said "winning it" I thought you were talking about gold, especialy since the way you phrased it made it feel like you were saying something that might shock people. My bad.

 

[sonsofanarchy]

And the reason I think Slutskaya was undermarked in the LP compared to what Chen and Butyrskaya did was there was a lot of talk it was ridiculous she beat Bonaly in the short after doing only a double lutz-double toe combo, and honestly she probably should not have even beaten Liashenko and maybe Malinina in the short. The judges probably heard that and knew her winning bronze would be a controversy because of that so were harder on her in the long program in response.

I probably would have left her artistic scores the same (mostly 5.6s and 5.7s) as that program was not great artistically, even compared to a subpar Butyrskaya, let alone a very good Chen. However I would have risen her technical scores to be equal to Kwan with 5.7s and 5.8s even with the missed triple flip and only 5 triples. She landed a huge triple-triple, numerous jump combinations, great spins, and speed. The speed is also why I would not have dropped her presentation scores even lower. Then on the other two, Chen was overscored technically under modern day thinking, harder to say under 6.0. Butyrskaya was probably overscored on both sets for the tenative, stiff, emotionless, and lots of small errors skate with less technical content tried than Chen and Slutskaya, she had that night.

 

[DreamSkates]

I think Tara would win no matter what. Her joy, her tech content, couldn't be beat. Scott Hamilton said, and I think this is very true. Michelle skated not to lose, and Tara skated to win.

It took me a long time, but I had to agree that Lapinski would have won unless Kwan skated with her usual penache AND included a triple-triple.

 

[fsfan2480]

Isn't that kind of a silly way to look at it, as that is implying Chen in 98 was as good a skater as she was in 95 or 96, which she clearly was nowhere close to, even at her "best". It is basically inventing a new fantasy skater altogether.

Even in that hypothetical though Chen did skate her best at the 96 worlds and still lost to Kwan. I would have had her beating her, but the fact is to the judges, rightly or wrongly, she didn't. So how would she then beat her and also Lipinski who beat Kwan in 98, when she couldn't even beat Kwan in 96. Kwan in 98 obviously if anything was a better skater than 96.

To me, Chen Lu won 1996 Worlds. That was a Ladies Champion skating clean with big jumps and elegance. Kwan skated very well but, for me, she was a girl trying to skate like a Ladies Champion. She still wasn't quite "there" yet, for me.