GPF Dance Medal Thread

[haribobo]

Who will medal?

 

[careypricefan]

It seems fairly obvious Papadakis & Cizeron win. Sinitsina & Katsalapov as silver is 80% likely probably, who knows though, Chock & Bates did nearly beat them and beat them handily in the FD, and they are prone to mistakes sometimes still.

The real question is probably the bronze. Not sure what to think there, Chock & Bates were so impressive in their last outing maybe I will go with them? All 6 teams have a shot of a medal though.

 

[Colonel Green]

I think that bronze will be determined by what happens in the RD.

Gilles/Poirier, since they qualified third and will be in the second mini-flight, have a window of opportunity here, but they'll likely need to hit three of the four keypoints.

 

[briancoogaert]

IMO, it will be Papadakis&Cizeron, Sinitsina&Katsalapov and Hubbell&Donohue.

 

[taz'smum]

I'd not say S/K are a lock for 2nd, simply because the ice is a slippery place - think Euros 2019!

 

[Eisfee]

I'd not say S/K are a lock for 2nd, simply because the ice is a slippery place - think Euros 2019!

Recently it seems like you would wish them to make errors!:-(
Ice is slippery for everyone!! Go SinKats!!!

 

[taz'smum]

Recently it seems like you would wish them to make errors!:-(
Ice is slippery for everyone!! Go SinKats!!!

True, the ice is slippery, and I don't want anyone to fall.
It's just that after watching Euros 2019 live, I now hold my breath when S/K do twizzles, yikes!

S/K have IMO, the skating skills to rival P/C.

 

[Eisfee]

True, the ice is slippery, and I don't want anyone to fall.
It's just that after watching Euros 2019 live, I now hold my breath when S/K do twizzles, yikes!

Then we can thank god, that the twizzles were good at last Worlds and Russia got 3 spots back! Maybe Tiff and John can go to Montreal 2020 because Nikita survived his twizzles!;-)

 

[taz'smum]

Then we can thank god, that the twizzles were good at last Worlds and Russia got 3 spots back! Maybe Tiff and John can go to Montreal 2020 because Nikita survived his twizzles!;-)

Yes, Russia can thank God, that S/K and S/B did so well at Worlds, and Russia has reclaimed its 3 spots
However, let's not get ahead of ourselves and count chickens, remember TJ's last performance at the Hunger Games! The competition and the politics will be fierce for that 3rd spot.
As I've said, the ice is a slippery place, and nothing is guaranteed!

 

[yurokis40]

all depends who is on the tech panel but Gilles and poirier will medal, the scores at rostelecom do not count imo since it was in russia and with an all european panel with tech controller as russian, the other 2 will be sinkats and pap ciz i am not buying the chock and bates hype.

 

[Khaleesi]

I chose P/C, H/D and S/K. I wouldn’t mind a shakeup though.

 

[Debrah]

If one adds the SB RD + SB FD of each team it magically works out to 1. P/C 226.61, 2. S/K 212.15, 3. G/P 209.01, C/B 208.90, H/D 208.65, S/B 208.03.

The following opinion is what I have observed over my many, many years of dance fandom. Take it or leave it, just my 2 cents.

Along with the above GP scores, the other huge thing to keep in mind is while the RD in 1st GP outing sets the initial PREFERRED and POLITIKED rankings mostly relying on past reputation to set PCS and GOE, to take care of any rust or miscues in 1st GP Event, usually = to, or somewhat inflated scores are given for sake of confidence building to get teams thru to the deciding FD.

The 1st GP sets the bar, then it is adjusted up or down based on many other intangible factors and the whims of judge's, OPTB, the FATES, who has most BUZZ and came trained, prepared with superior program and packaging and is showing consistency.

Let's be honest, the French could sit on the ice doing sweet knock all for 1/2 their programs and will still be ranked as the preferred and expected 1st for gold consideration. The only difference might be the size of the point gap maybe a measly 4 pts if an unexpected disaster happened during GPF -14 or more points showered upon them to set gap tween gold to silver if they skate sublimely. So top step is reserved unless it's the end of the world or we are all fighting Zombies and/or invading aliens.

Then comes the answer to the 2 biggest questions, setting the tone for rest of the season, who do they prefer as Russia #! and USA #1? Despite the FD issues I believe S&K answered that with the home cooking of COR scoring that tucks the kids - S/B, firmly behind by 4 pts, but still carrying the flag if S&K (likely K screw up) being pretty much tied with both American teams as well as the Canadian team all suggesting the only step of the podium under contention is for 3rd place. Let the nail biting begin!!! Since nothing is written in stone TPTB are hoping to give the benefit of the doubt to H/D based on initial RD scores but Judge's sent the message that they must fix their issues, or the nod will be given to C/B for USA#1 based on their overall packaging, 2 thumbs up programs, not to mention Chock's kickass FD dress that likely earned 2 of those 4 extra FD COC bonus points. Oops H/D found themselves behind Canada's newly perceived #1 -- the ever rising always interesting and unique - G/P, LOL!

No doubt Russia went into season hoping for S&K and S/B to be at worst W#2 and #3, much as they did the previous year, and like the previous year, they had to reset expectations based on the skating & programs, so Russia had to pick just 1 horse for podium and they will be betting all the marbles on S/K while hoping but not paying out for S/B to be at least 4th by Worlds, as the 3 NA teams will most likely fight it out for the all important 1st step GPF bronze. G/P with home worlds + the most consistent scores over both GP events as they did not have as much of an internal threat to face on home ice as that of the 2 American teams who both qualified to GPF. G/P wound up with a very slight nod of 209.01 that will be raised or lowered based on how they and everyone else performs at the re-set GPF; otherwise G/P will be slotted into 4-6 as dance expectations are always in favor of USA and & Russia over Canada (unless V&M are competing, LOL)! So while y'all saw that big FD score of C&B that is giving you confident tingles, it is of course tempered by the big RD score of H/D who are still USA #1 till they are not, thus total scores of 208.65 (H/B) versus the momentum building 208.90 (C/B). Going to be a bumpy ride -hand me the smelling salt's!

Based on what I feel should happen if everyone does the expected and no real changes in program content/packaging then -- P&C, G&P, C&B, S&K, H&D, S&B. BUT THIS IS ICE DANCING WHERE POLITIKS RULE if skating also happens to agree and momentum keeps building, so it will be; P&C,S&K, G&P,C&B,H&D, S&B with a possible switch out tween G&P and whoever is given nod for USA #1, if things go badly for G&P and brilliantly for either American team in the RD. I am counting on jitters tween the 2 Russian and American teams who are distracted by internal wars, to help the rise of the Canadians. Go Canada! It won't get real till the Mitchell gal sings LOL!

 

[yurokis40]

I agree the russian and american federation do crazy lobbying and have alot of power.

 

[Barbara Manatee]

american federation do crazy lobbying

Not for ice dance.

 

[yurokis40]

Not for ice dance.

yeah right Judy Blumberg, shawn rettstat, sharon rogers barf.

 

[heartyxo]

P/C have gold, obviously.

I think S/K are most likely gonna get silver but I think the other 4 will likely be closer to them by worlds.

As for the bronze, no idea.
I would love for it to be C/B and they are my favorite current team but it's not gonna happen if they can't get their RD levels, even though their FD is making up the deficit at the moment. I do think they are gaining momentum and even though they might not beat H/D yet, I still think they could by nationals, depending on how both teams are received.
G/P also have momentum and great programs and they could pull it off but they'll need to be solid like they were at their individual GPs. They're the team with the 2 closest total scores so they've definitely been consistent. I'd rather have them and C/B on the podium alongside P/C but that's not happening.
S/B I also enjoy but I don't get the feeling they'll medal, I think amongst the 4 they have the least "stand-out" qualities that could help them. But you never know with Russian politicking, and they are solid and could take advantage of mistakes.
H/D have the 2nd best speed and power in the world after P/C, but the programs are not helping them at all and they are still mistake-prone. I think it's too early to say they're losing momentum but if they don't medal at GPF and lose at nationals, which could happen, they could be at risk.
They've all hit similar scores which makes it even harder.

 

[Khaleesi]

Can we wait till the actual competition before crying politics?

 

[Dobre]

Dunno.

Some interesting observations about this year's GP:

-2nd & 3rd highest RD scores are held by different teams (Sinitsina & Katsalapov and Hubbell & Donohue) than the 2nd & 3rd highest FD scores (Chock & Bates and Gilles & Poirier).

-Teams split dances at Skate America (Hubbell & Donohue and Stepanova & Bukin), Skate Canada (Hubbell & Donohue and Gilles & Poirier), and Cup of China (Sinitsina & Katsalapov and Chock & Bates).

-Judges' marks for Chock & Bates were heavily split with Guignard & Fabbri in France. (C&B had less than half the panel in both the RD and the FD). Then of course in China a week later, C&B surprised in the FD with 6 of 9 first place marks. I think C&B are real wildcards here. (Hold onto your twizzles, Evan).

-Sinitsina & Katsalapov and Gilles & Poirier split judges marks 5/4 in the free at Rostelecom. So it wasn't only China where S&K had issues in the free. Ditto, of course, with Hubbell & Donohue at SA and SC.

The thing about the GPF is that there are only 3 teams in each group. I think it makes movement across those groups onto the podium tougher than at most dance events.

 

[yurokis40]

Dunno.

Some interesting observations about this year's GP:

-2nd & 3rd highest RD scores are held by different teams (Sinitsina & Katsalapov and Hubbell & Donohue) than the 2nd & 3rd highest FD scores (Chock & Bates and Gilles & Poirier).

-Teams split dances at Skate America (Hubbell & Donohue and Stepanova & Bukin), Skate Canada (Hubbell & Donohue and Gilles & Poirier), and Cup of China (Sinitsina & Katsalapov and Chock & Bates).

-Judges' marks for Chock & Bates were heavily split with Guignard & Fabbri in France. (C&B had less than half the panel in both the RD and the FD). Then of course in China a week later, C&B surprised in the FD with 6 of 9 first place marks. I think C&B are real wildcards here. (Hold onto your twizzles, Evan).

-Sinitsina & Katsalapov and Gilles & Poirier split judges marks 5/4 in the free at Rostelecom. So it wasn't only China where S&K had issues in the free. Ditto, of course, with Hubbell & Donohue at SA and SC.

The thing about the GPF is that there are only 3 teams in each group. I think it makes movement across those groups onto the podium tougher than at most dance events.

i think in any other country G&P would have won the fd imo over sinkats who had big advantage with tech panel and homefield.

 

[careypricefan]

It will be interesting too going into U.S Nationals, Russian Nationals, and Europeans. Possibly Four Continents. We will get an idea who is the U.S #1, but whoever loses here can still strike back come Nationals, but the one who comes higher here probably has the early edge, especialy if they make the podium somewhere. And while it seems one is up as Russian #1 now of the top 2 Russians, that too can change if Stepanova & Bukin can somehow come out on top of their teammates here, and if they don't closing the gap is important. This is the first step on those 2 battles.

I love Hubbell & Donohue and have always liked their style but I sense they are losing ground for awhile now. They dropped back to 3rd at worlds last year, some people did not agree with their Nationals win over Chock & Bates, and the big loss at Skate Canada this year to Gilles & Poirier. Their scores have been getting further beneath Sinitsina & Katsalapov. Just all the signs seem to be them losing ground, and they need to find a way to buck the trend, especialy with Chock & Bates having such a strong last outing.

 

[MarieM]

GPF depends on starting orders. Whoever skates 4 5 6 will medal.

 

[taz'smum]

GPF depends on starting orders. Whoever skates 4 5 6 will medal.

So H/D, P/C & S/K, by ISU world ranking!

(the Italians would've been in the final group if they had qualified!)

 

[Eisfee]

So H/D, P/C & S/K, by ISU world ranking!

(the Italians would've been in the final group if they had qualified!)

I think the RD order is P/C, S/K and G/P (GPF qualification).

 

[Debbie S]

I think the RD order is P/C, S/K and G/P (GPF qualification).

The announcement says it's based on world ranking.

 

[Eisfee]

The announcement says it's based on world ranking.

Ah, ok. Then I was mistaken. Sorry.

 

[Dobre]

The announcement says it's based on world ranking.

Thank you for pointing this out. I hadn't realized they had changed the rules this season.

GPF depends on starting orders. Whoever skates 4 5 6 will medal.

I think it definitely helps. (It would be more difficult, for example, to see the head-to-head difference in speed & ice coverage between H&D and G&P with the teams in separate groups).

If the starting order is per world standing, then the teams with the current higher RD scores are all in the final group to start out with.

Last year, Sinitsina & Katsalapov started out in the first group, however, and made the final flight.

It is harder to find an example of a team from the first flight moving up onto the podium after finishing in the first flight after the RD. There are a number of recent examples of teams from the first FD flight earning top three FD scores, but the last example of a team actually moving up onto the podium from the first FD flight was P&C in 2014-15. Pechalat & Bourzat did it in 13-14 (thanks in part, if I remember correctly, to a fall from Bobrova & Soloviev). Crone & Poirier did it in 10-11 (I have no memory of that one). If you go back earlier than 03-04, you get into a different competitive format, where I think they put teams in groups of 2 and had them go head-to-head for a second FD.

So I believe there are 3 examples of dance teams moving up out of the first FD flight onto the podium in 16 years.

By comparison, there are 6 examples of dance teams moving up onto the podium from outside the top 3 at the World Championships during the same 16 year period. (Almost all of them relatively recent. Doing so was much less common with compulsories).

Anyway, movement has been more common in dance in general over the past several years. And the results we have had thus far this season do indicate we may be primed for it to happen. Just worth acknowledging that this can be an even tougher thing to do than normal when your competition is in a whole separate group.

 

[yurokis40]

gpf podium 1. Pap ciz 2. Sinkats 3.G&P, for worlds g&p will switch with sinkats for silver , sinkats fd just doesn`t appeal to a north american audience.

 

[PRlady]

G/P are not going to beat both the American teams. Neither of their dances this year have the appeal of Vincent and the tech in power and edges is just not Worlds top-3. That doesn't mean I don't enjoy watching them, I always do.

 

[yurokis40]

G/P are not going to beat both the American teams. Neither of their dances this year have the appeal of Vincent and the tech in power and edges is just not Worlds top-3. That doesn't mean I don't enjoy watching them, I always do.

Worlds is in Canada the canadian federation is powerful and the isu will give them a medal, they already beat h&d, and chock and bates already been twice on world podium no urgency to reward them again.

 

[yurokis40]

G/P are not going to beat both the American teams. Neither of their dances this year have the appeal of Vincent and the tech in power and edges is just not Worlds top-3. That doesn't mean I don't enjoy watching them, I always do.

the judges seem to disagree with you on that point this year.