Alexei Mishin: Only misfortune can prevent Russian girls to win. Do you agree or disagree, and why?

[Bellanca]

http://fs-gossips.com/alexei-mishin-only-misfortune-can-prevent-russian-girls-to-win/

Alexei Mishin is feeling pretty confident about the Russian ladies’ ability to win gold, silver, and maybe even the coveted sweep, he has a good point, but do you agree and are you feeling as confident as Mishin?

- The Olympic Games are in PyeongChang, will that atmosphere and environment make a difference?

- Will the judges behave themselves?

- Could there be a spoiler?
- Should Mishin hit Vegas and bet the farm??

 

[ohashibiles]

I think only a Zagitova or Medvedeva bomb can lead them to not going 1-2 in whichever order, so agree on that much. And even if one of them bombs it would take Kostner or Osmond skating very well to beat one of them probably, and I am not sure how likely that is given how massively inconsistent both ladies are. I am not sure the judges will place Daleman even skating great over either Russian with mistakes, even if she probably should be in that scenario.

The sweep is another matter. I think Maria S is very vurnerable, will likely be the sacrificial lamb as the judges dont like sweeps and unless Osmond, Daleman, Kostner, and maybe Miyahara each has mistakes she wont be allowed to medal.

 

[Bellanca]

I think only a Zagitova or Medvedeva bomb can lead them to not going 1-2 in whichever order, so agree on that much. And even if one of them bombs it would take Kostner or Osmond skating very well to beat one of them probably, and I am not sure how likely that is given how massively inconsistent both ladies are. I am not sure the judges will place Daleman even skating great over either Russian with mistakes, even if she probably should be in that scenario.

The sweep is another matter. I think Maria S is very vurnerable, will likely be the sacrificial lamb as the judges dont like sweeps and unless Osmond, Daleman, Kostner, and maybe Miyahara each has mistakes she wont be allowed to medal.

The thing is, neither Med nor Zag can afford to falter. I no longer believe they have a one error cushion over the rest of the field, particularly if Kaetlyn, Carolina, Satoko (or one of many possible surprises) skate how they are all capable of skating. I think the judges might be inclined to break that 1-2 mold. If Med or Zag have any URs, step-outs, etc. the door flings wide-open.

Kaetlyn Osmond has impressive jumps and crowd-pleasing charisma. If she can get into the zone and stay there, then, it could happen. BIG scores!!

Carolina Kostner must have a clean skate, land her jumps and stay on her feet which we know that she is capable of. If Caro does that, HUGE scores! Plus, she is the sentimental favorite. Don’t forget that!

Satoko Miyahara, when clean w/ fully rotated jumps, and those enormous PCS she is capable of accumulating, could easily find herself (tiny) queen at the top of the podium because she too, will pull in a massive score if there are no URs.

Broken record time, but remember, ice is slippery which makes me think that Maria Sotskova could be the top scoring Russian lady IF Med and Zag do not skate cleanly. Otherwise, I do believe she is on the outside looking in which is not unfamiliar territory to her. For Maria to surpass her teammates and competitors, she will need to be as close to perfect as she can and look to get some help, but I wouldn’t count her out.

 

[ohashibiles]

The thing is, neither Med nor Zag can afford to falter. I no longer believe they have a one error cushion over the rest of the field, particularly if Kaetlyn, Carolina, Satoko (or one of many possible surprises) skate how they are all capable of skating. I think the judges might be inclined to break that 1-2 mold. If Med or Zag have any URs, step-outs, etc. the door flings wide-open.

Kaetlyn Osmond has impressive jumps and crowd-pleasing charisma. If she can get into the zone and stay there, then, it could happen. BIG scores!!

Carolina Kostner must have a clean skate, land her jumps and stay on her feet which we know that she is capable of. If Caro does that, HUGE scores! Plus, she is the sentimental favorite. Don’t forget that!

Satoko Miyahara, when clean w/ fully rotated jumps, and those enormous PCS she is capable of accumulating, could easily find herself (tiny) queen at the top of the podium because she too, will pull in a massive score if there are no URs.

Broken record time, but remember, ice is slippery which makes me think that Maria Sotskova could be the top scoring Russian lady IF Med and Zag do not skate cleanly. Otherwise, I do believe she is on the outside looking in which is not unfamiliar territory to her. For Maria to surpass her teammates and competitors, she will need to be as close to perfect as she can and look to get some help, but I wouldn’t count her out.

You are entitled your opinions but the judges scores seem to contradict your beliefs. Satoko is definitely much more than 1 mistake behind the top 2 Russians, and that is even assuming no < calls which for her is unlikely even on her best days. Even if Carolyn and Kaitlyn were less than 1 mistake over 2 combined programs behind the Russians with all skating cleanly (IMO they arent but they probably are closer than anyone else) the likelihood of either skating close to clean is almost nil, and both Russian girls are far more consistent than either of them are to begin with; so the scenario of them skating great and getting help from skaters far more consistent than them to begin with is not great.

 

[DreamSkates]

...the likelihood of either skating close to clean is almost nil, and both Russian girls are far more consistent than either of them are to begin with; so the scenario of them skating great and getting help from skaters far more consistent than them to begin with is not great.

But the possibility of anything and everything happening, given those who have not competed at the Olympics, gives me hope that it will be an exciting and not totally predictable event.

 

[Bellanca]

You are entitled your opinions but the judges scores seem to contradict your beliefs. Satoko is definitely much more than 1 mistake behind the top 2 Russians, and that is even assuming no < calls which for her is unlikely even on her best days. Even if Carolyn and Kaitlyn were less than 1 mistake over 2 combined programs behind the Russians with all skating cleanly (IMO they arent but they probably are closer than anyone else) the likelihood of either skating close to clean is almost nil, and both Russian girls are far more consistent than either of them are to begin with; so the scenario of them skating great and getting help from skaters far more consistent than them to begin with is not great.

If one of the top ladies should fall, for example, and her competitors do not, the judges are not going to reward this skater w/ an Olympic gold medal. So, yes, one mistake can make all the difference between gold, silver, bronze or with this group, possibly being left off the podium entirely. That is what Mishin is referring to when he says misfortune.

 

[zigzig]

2 spots is a certainty and a sweep not out of the question. Sots beat Osmond, Kostner and Miyahara at the final and given how nervy Osmond and Kostner are and Miyahara's prone to UR I don't think the possibility of a sweep is that crazy.

 

[caseyedwards]

If 2006 was Cohen vs Slutskaya and arakawa won maybe this year of zagitova vs Medvedeva kostner could win!!!! The HUGE problem with that is of course Medvedeva and zagitova are so much more consistent than many in history so both of them faltering is so so questionable.

 

[MAXSwagg]

Medvedeva and Zagitova have a two-fall, maybe even three, buffer over the next nearest skater in the FS.

 

[Vash01]

Medvedeva and Zagitova have a two-fall, maybe even three, buffer over the next nearest skater in the FS.

I don't think any skater in the ladies competition can afford to fall. One fall in the SP or LP and goodbye OGM. Mishin's confidence is justifiable and understandable but as we have seen in the past, anything can happen in the Olympics.

 

[PRlady]

Everyone's forgetting Kaori. She's got huge jumps, skating skills and decent presentation and she's on a roll. She could be this year's Sotnikova.

 

[Bellanca]

Medvedeva and Zagitova have a two-fall, maybe even three, buffer over the next nearest skater in the FS.

Yeah, right. Now, I know you can't be serious. If this were the case, the rest of the field should just bag the competition and hit the halfpipe.

 

[Areski]

Medvedeva and Zagitova have a two-fall, maybe even three, buffer over the next nearest skater in the FS.

It would not be a case if they were scored accurately and if sanity returned to their minds again. Even one can take a look at Evgenia's forward landed triple flip in FS at Europeans, she received +0.6 GOE on poor quality triple flip that some other skater from less influential federation, let's say Korean one like Dabin Choi would get 0 Goe or slight minus GOE like f.e -0.23 GOE (some random number here) or 1.29 GOE for Layback spin in SP (what?!). Those tiny bit of points quickly grow to big points like 6-10 points per programs once you add everything up.

Sure their programs have high BV (Zagitova's crazy high with fully backloaded jumps and difficult combinations ), they don't pop, lose levels, rarely fall but their GOE and PCS are questionable or outright corrupted.

Evgenia in particular tends to get extra points over almost anyone on most elements, sloppy tanocopter feature does not justify that as it does not make her jumps more difficult or appealing (or used to receive that cushion before Zagitova came along) even though her execution is not better (in fact it's worse), never gets e call on flutz and receives overscored GOE on travelling spins. Medvedeva's triple toe loop jumps in combinations are more like double jumps disguised as triples (excessive prerotated and sometimes not landed backwards at the same time either) and her jumps in general are actully strikingly similar to the bad examples provided years ago by ... ISU simulation itself. Evgenia has textbook bad jumps. Her bad yet stable technique makes it easier to skate consistently and land ''triples' cleanly but in the past she'd be punished for that technique.

Medvedeva's PCS is also overscored (and even more Zagitova's) yet should have a considerable margin over Alina here but I am not eager to delve into that as well right now


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DxJFjJ12DyY

 

[Areski]

Everyone's forgetting Kaori. She's got huge jumps, skating skills and decent presentation and she's on a roll. She could be this year's Sotnikova.

She can't be. She's not Russian.

 

[MAXSwagg]

It would not be a case if they were scored accurately and if sanity returned to their minds again. Even one can take a look at Evgenia's forward landed triple flip in FS at Europeans, she received +0.6 GOE on poor quality triple flip that some other skater from less influential federation, let's say Korean one like Dabin Choi would get 0 Goe or slight minus GOE like f.e -0.23 GOE (some random number here) or 1.29 GOE for Layback spin in SP (what?!). Those tiny bit of points quickly grow to big points like 6-10 points per programs once you add everything up.

Sure their programs have high BV (Zagitova's crazy high with fully backloaded jumps and difficult combinations ), they don't pop, lose levels, rarely fall but their GOE and PCS are questionable or outright corrupted.

Evgenia in particular tends to get extra points over almost anyone on most elements, sloppy tanocopter feature does not justify that as it does not make her jumps more difficult or appealing (or used to receive that cushion before Zagitova came along) even though her execution is not better (in fact it's worse), never gets e call on flutz and receives overscored GOE on travelling spins. Medvedeva's triple toe loop jumps in combinations are more like double jumps disguised as triples (excessive prerotated and sometimes not landed backwards at the same time either) and her jumps in general are actully strikingly similar to the bad examples provided years ago by ... ISU simulation itself. Evgenia has textbook bad jumps. Her bad yet stable technique makes it easier to skate consistently and land ''triples' cleanly but in the past she'd be punished for that technique.

Medvedeva's PCS is also overscored (and even more Zagitova's) yet should have a considerable margin over Alina here but I am not eager to delve into that as well right now


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DxJFjJ12DyY

Oh, I agree. I’m just describing the current situation.

 

[Bellanca]

I cannot imagine the judges, on a good day, even toying with the idea of padding the scores of the Russian skaters due solely to the fact that these games are in Yuna Kim’s backyard. The almost inevitable severe reaction there would be if one of the top Russian ladies had a subtle to noticeable error but went on to win the competition over a couple of skaters who did not have errors and skated cleanly, would be inviting mayhem.

South Korea has not forgotten. For that matter, neither has Italy.

I’m not suggesting funny things will go on, but I do not believe the top ladies will be held up unless they skate the way they are capable of and basically earn the gold and silver. Hopefully, no double-digit score inflation to prop someone up.

 

[butyrskafanatic]

The Games being in South Korea would only be meaningful if Sotnikova herself was in the competition. If she were, unless she had won the last 4 worlds since Sochi and made an incredible reputation for herself, she would probably be guaranteed PCS in the mid 7s or worse, 0s and 1st in GOE on most of her moves no matter how well they were done (basicaly mimicking what the judges did to Kim, and to an extent Kostner and Asada in the LP in Sochi), and the judges would go out of their way to ensure she didnt medal so they could get out of the building alive.

As Sotnikova is not there, I doubt the crowd cares, or will even be that anti Russian. They do not hate any Russian skater besides Sotnikova. I dont see the crowd having any impact on how the event is scored unless Sotnikova had been there.

The scores and results this year indicate Medvedeva and Zagitova will both have to have real problems to lose to another skater, especialy if nobody skates significantly better than they have at any point this year so far. Zagitova bombed her SP and didnt even have a totally clean LP like Europeans in most of her events this season, and still won them over skaters who skated great like Higuchi.

 

[caseyedwards]

The Games being in South Korea would only be meaningful if Sotnikova herself was in the competition. If she were, unless she had won the last 4 worlds since Sochi and made an incredible reputation for herself, she would probably be guaranteed PCS in the mid 7s or worse, 0s and 1st in GOE on most of her moves no matter how well they were done (basicaly mimicking what the judges did to Kim, and to an extent Kostner and Asada in the LP in Sochi), and the judges would go out of their way to ensure she didnt medal so they could get out of the building alive.

As Sotnikova is not there, I doubt the crowd cares, or will even be that anti Russian. They do not hate any Russian skater besides Sotnikova. I dont see the crowd having any impact on how the event is scored unless Sotnikova had been there.

The scores and results this year indicate Medvedeva and Zagitova will both have to have real problems to lose to another skater, especialy if nobody skates significantly better than they have at any point this year so far. Zagitova bombed her SP and didnt even have a totally clean LP like Europeans in most of her events this season, and still won them over skaters who skated great like Higuchi.

You don’t see all the videos made by yuna fans on yotube attacking all Russians? No hatred of Sotnikova means hatred of Medvedeva and zagitova and all!

 

[butyrskafanatic]

You don’t see all the videos made by yuna fans on yotube attacking all Russians? No hatred of Sotnikova means hatred of Medvedeva and zagitova and all!

If there is disdain for the other Russian girls it would be relatively minor and nothing that would influence the judging. I guarantee it.

There has been some disdain for Medvedeva from skating fans (not Yu Na fans imparticular) due to her at times bloated scores, but this year becoming the underdog to Zagitova, I expect her to become much more a sentimental favorite for the first time ever.

 

[Bellanca]

I don't believe that this discussion warrants the use of the word hate, guys… I'm certainly not throwing that word around recklessly in a skating forum. Completely unnecessary and inappropriate.

I guess that neither one of you have been to South Korea, lately? Because if you had, you would understand, of course, that their citizens do not hate anyone in figure skating.

South Koreans are people of great integrity and honesty. They are hopeful people (and fans) fully expecting these Olympic Games to embrace the Olympic spirit of values, fairness and transparency. That is important to them. I know this because I was there not so long ago.

As for the judges, they just need to do their jobs honestly and resist game playing or deal-making etc. to achieve the desired outcome.

but this year becoming the underdog to Zagitova, I expect her to become much more a sentimental favorite for the first time ever.

Med is not the underdog. She is still the one to beat, the front-runner.

 

[Bellanca]

If there is disdain for the other Russian girls it would be relatively minor and nothing that would influence the judging. I guarantee it.

No, you can't. No one can guarantee such a thing.

 

[butyrskafanatic]

No, you can't. No one can guarantee such a thing.

Maybe but your thinking the Russian girls are suddenly going to be easily beatable just because the Games are in Korea, and need to skate cleanly while the Canadians, Japanese, and Kostner make mistakes to stand a chance is a)sheer delusion and even moreso b)wishful thinking.

 

[Bellanca]

Maybe but your thinking the Russian girls are suddenly going to be easily beatable just because the Games are in Korea, and need to skate cleanly while the Canadians, Japanese, and Kostner make mistakes to stand a chance is a)sheer delusion and even moreso b)wishful thinking.

That's not what I said.

Everyone will need to skate cleanly to have a decent chance, including the Russians. My goodness, imagine if one of the American ladies should end up winning Olympic gold! Some of you people will need psychological counseling!

Maybe some beefy crock-pot lasagne is in order.

 

[joubertelegant]

Everyone's forgetting Kaori. She's got huge jumps, skating skills and decent presentation and she's on a roll. She could be this year's Sotnikova.

With all due respect why would you wish on anyone you like to be this year's Sotnikova.

 

[butyrskafanatic]

That's not what I said.

Everyone will need to skate cleanly to have a decent chance, including the Russians. My goodness, imagine if one of the American ladies should end up winning Olympic gold! Some of you people will need psychological counseling!

Maybe some beefy crock-pot lasagne is in order.

You seem to be ignoring the gap the Russian girls have on the competition based on the SCORES and results this whole season and creating an alterior fantasy world that is otherwise. Sorry JMO. Whether you like the Russian girls or not the evidence is there and it is pretty clear. They dont go into the Games dead equal with 5 or 6 other contenders as you seem to think.

 

[lala]

I agree with papa Mishin

 

[Bellanca]

You seem to be ignoring the gap the Russian girls have on the competition based on the SCORES and results this whole season and creating an alterior fantasy world that is otherwise. Sorry JMO. Whether you like the Russian girls or not the evidence is there and it is pretty clear. They dont go into the Games dead equal with 5 or 6 other contenders as you seem to think.

I am not ignoring anything as it pertains to the ladies’ competition. My feeling has always been and continues to be that Med and Zag are the ones to beat, as Mishin is alluding to.

What I am doing, is playing the devil’s advocate quite a bit because I believe that the Russian’s assumed one, two finish and possible medal sweep is not entirely etched in stone. I do think there could be an upset, or the competition could be as predictable as the sun coming up tomorrow morning. The point is, we’ve seen it before.

Basically, the hope is that the front-runner's scores will not be held up to such an unrealistic degree at these Olympic Games via ridiculous score inflation unless the skate warrants it and they’ve really knocked it out of the park. However, having said that, the scores should still be impressive because it’s the Olympics we are talking about, where a handful of ladies will probably benefit with a new personal best or a world record score depending on how they skate.

If skaters’ A & B have personal best skates and scores, they will most likely be joined by skaters’ C & D who might also skate lights out and be rewarded personal best scores. Given that scenario, the scores would be acceptable and understandable. Now, if one of the top-tier ladies should falter in her short program and the other top-tier ladies do not, what we don’t want to see is a score that keeps that particular skater unrealistically in the mix. Too problematic, too controversial. However, should that skater rally back in the FS, that is an entirely different matter, altogether.

Just because a skater is tapped to win – or lose - doesn't mean that it will necessarily unfold that way especially at the Olympics.