I think the IOC will favor certainty and cost containment since there is a lot of citizen backlash on cost of the games. Turin/Calgary have a shot based on this.
As for entrants who have never hosted, Sion has a longer and more successful bid history, almost landing the games a few times, including 2006 when they finished second in the voting to Turin.
IOC seems to be pretty good about not endlessly torturing cities who bid a number of times and do well. They eventually get the games.
Graz has bid once, getting straight up zero votes in 2002. I don't see them getting it over Sion.