2026 Olympics Team Event - Strategy, Predictions & Discussion

my little pony said:
I'm sure they faxed you with the news but you may have been on your cruise

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Those suckers look good and I would be happy to eat an entire package at once and then go right to the gym.

Will be pulling into Miami in about six hours. Then go back home and binge figure skating.
 
Karen-W said:
I'm not sure how the start orders were determined for the TE FS/FD. They aren't based on WS since GuigFab are ranked higher than LajLag but skated before them today; and KamO are ranked higher than PerMich but skating 1st tomorrow while Gubanova is ranked higher than Gutmann but skating before her tomorrow; plus Nika's skating 1st even though he's ranked ahead of both Rizzo & Gogo, while Ilia's skating before Shun.
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It’s the reverse order of how the team placed in the SP/RD. The individual skater’s ranking is not considered. Gutmann (Italy) placed higher than Gubanova (Georgia) in the women’s SP.
 
I realize that this wouldn’t work in actuality but I wish that the next segments starting order was based on results after the segment before. So, if Japan got 8th in the SD, the next segment (I think it was pairs), would skate 3rd. I realize why all the logistics would make this practically impossible, I just think it could be interesting.
I also think point wise the Free Programs need to have more weight. I haven’t figured out a great way to do it but it just seems like it doesn’t allow for enough possible movement. I do like that it’s being taken more seriously than in previous games.
 
I like that idea. It's not like the judges have to hold back scores anymore like in 6.0 days, so doesn't matter that the likely winner might skate 3rd in the next segment. I actually wish they would go back to random draw for everything instead of reverse order. :P

But they totally need to rethink this points system and make the Free Skates count for more. I have no clue how but something needs to change with how the event is scored. There is no scenario in which USA doesn't win today if everyone skates their normal potential, so there is no excitement at all when you already know what the results are going to be.
 
BaileyCatts said:
I like that idea. It's not like the judges have to hold back scores anymore like in 6.0 days, so doesn't matter that the likely winner might skate 3rd in the next segment. I actually wish they would go back to random draw for everything instead of reverse order. :P

But they totally need to rethink this points system and make the Free Skates count for more. I have no clue how but something needs to change with how the event is scored. There is no scenario in which USA doesn't win today if everyone skates their normal potential, so there is no excitement at all when you already know what the results are going to be.
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Except not every skater always skates to their normal potential. See yesterday - both Egadze & Malinin.
 
Well I'm figuring even if Ilia comes out and only does 4 quads, he'll still win his segment. :D Shun doesn't even have 4 quads, does he? I thought he only has 3. Italy getting that Bronze on home ice is now more exciting for me. Don't even care about Gold and Silver anymore.
 
BaileyCatts said:
Well I'm figuring even if Ilia comes out and only does 4 quads, he'll still win his segment. :D Shun doesn't even have 4 quads, does he? I thought he only has 3. Italy getting that Bronze on home ice is now more exciting for me. Don't even care about Gold and Silver anymore.
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I care about gold & silver - and not just because I'm unabashedly Team USA, but also because I cannot abide by the notion that a country that couldn't even qualify a skater in one of the individual events could potentially win gold. That's just an insult to the entire concept of rewarding a country for having depth across ALL four disciplines.
 
I’ve been impressed with Japan’s performances so far. For the USA, only Chock/Bates hit it out of the park. If the U.S. wins, I hope it’s because they have stellar performances today.

A bit sad that Japan didn’t split ladies as Chiba and Nakai are also top ladies in the women’s discipline.
 
BaileyCatts said:
If anything I bet this will have Japan start to steer more young skaters into Dance and start to build that program. It will probably take a few years, but with skating being so popular in Japan, there has got to be some Ice Dance Diva's in training lurking in Japan somewhere. :glamor:
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I am always astonished there are excellent pairs and not dance. They really need more dance coaches who can do what you are suggesting. Japan is a tough sell though for relocating because you basically can't stay lifelong.
 
BaileyCatts said:
If anything I bet this will have Japan start to steer more young skaters into Dance and start to build that program. It will probably take a few years, but with skating being so popular in Japan, there has got to be some Ice Dance Diva's in training lurking in Japan somewhere. :glamor:
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It will take a systemic change in approach to allocation of ice time at rinks across Japan for them to build up a credible ice dance program - same with pairs, to be honest, especially with the changes in the coming Olympic cycle to the pairs FS (removing one of the SBS jumping passes). It will also require the JSF actively encouraging more of their lower-ranked skaters who will never have the jumps to make the move to one of the partnered disciplines. If the day ever comes where the JSF reduces the # of skaters who qualify to Nationals from 30 to 18 or 24 in the singles disciplines, then that shift may occur since skaters care very much about being able to say they made it to their National championships. It can certainly be done, but it will take at least a decade, probably longer, IMO.

Beyond that, I don't think that the US skaters performed horribly. Alysa was a little tight compared to Nats & the GPF, but she still scored very well. Ellie & Danny performed exactly as expected based on practice reports & their warm-up - and they're still appreciably better in the pairs field than YoMori are in the TE dance field this year. Ilia is the only one who underperformed in the TE SP/RD. We'll see how he bounces back today.
 
Taso said:
I am always astonished there are excellent pairs and not dance. They really need more dance coaches who can do what you are suggesting. Japan is a tough sell though for relocating because you basically can't stay lifelong.
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Pairs is a very new phenomonon for Japan. Yuka Kavaguti went to Russia because she couldn't find a partner or good training conditions in Japan. Even now, they have 2 senior teams (who are great), but no real depth behind them. I think there's more potential depth in Dance right now in Japan than in Pairs if I look at the junior level, and some new senior dance teams that just paired up this year.
 
her grace said:
I’ve been impressed with Japan’s performances so far. For the USA, only Chock/Bates hit it out of the park. If the U.S. wins, I hope it’s because they have stellar performances today.
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Ilia doing a quad flip out of a spread eagle and doing a quad lutz was unimpressive, as was Alysa being the only one to do a lutz/loop, but the Japanese ice dance team was awesome?
 
Strategically, we've made a lot of Canada's decision to split dance, which made sense when they were expected to be way out of medal contention, but is pretty contentious when they were so close to bronze.

That being said, it's probably a difference of one point, right? Or two against Italy. Piper and Paul might have beaten Charlene and Marco, which would have given Canada one more point and Italy one less. That would be enough to tie Italy and Canada now, but it would still come down to the men, especially, and the pairs.
 
beckab81 said:
Pairs is a very new phenomonon for Japan. Yuka Kavaguti went to Russia because she couldn't find a partner or good training conditions in Japan. Even now, they have 2 senior teams (who are great), but no real depth behind them. I think there's more potential depth in Dance right now in Japan than in Pairs if I look at the junior level, and some new senior dance teams that just paired up this year.
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Yes, I remember Kavaguti medaling at junior worlds with Markuntsov representing Japan back in 2001 before her name was russified. Even then she was with Moskvina, though mostly in Hackensack, NJ. And Takahashi & Tran, though again it was only the woman who was Japanese.

BTW does anyone know if she still in Russia? I know she was still in perhaps 2023 which surprised me.

Hopefully Miura &/or Kihira will want to coach in Japan (and are good at it). His footwork on lifts is so smooth.

Edited for typos
 
Allskate said:
Ilia doing a quad flip out of a spread eagle and doing a quad lutz was unimpressive, as was Alysa being the only one to do a lutz/loop, but the Japanese ice dance team was awesome?
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I was referencing the performances and not solely jumps. Obviously, the Japanese dance team wasn’t as impressive, but their man, woman, and pairs team performed better than the Americans did.
 
BaileyCatts said:
Me too! For every Ilia type score a Team has, they'll have a lower score to balance it all out.
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Problem with this is that men have a higher scoring floor (ceiling?). You can be strong in all other disciplines—or weak in them all, and the men’s score is going to skew every team score, as it makes up a disproportionate amount of a total score.
 
I stand by my opinion that Amber was the right and fair choice. There are rules about team selection. I don't think Alysa wanted to do the LP. Hindsight is not 20/20 because we don't know how Alysa would have done or whether she would have agreed to do it. She was tight in the short. This was about how I expected Amber to skate. And, really, that was an unprecedented score by Gubanova. Her program is so empty and she takes a very obvious rest break.
 
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Debbie S said:
I did say after Nats, that while I love Amber, I would put Alysa in the TE. (I was assuming we were splitting men and dance)
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Yes, if there were only one woman, I thought Alysa would be the right and fair choice (assuming she would have agreed to it).
 
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Debbie S said:
I did say after Nats, that while I love Amber, I would put Alysa in the TE. (I was assuming we were splitting men and dance)
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A lot of us said this. A few said that Amber should do the SP because she has a higher scoring potential but a lot of people countered that it was too risky. I don't know where this supposed "consensus" came from that people thought Amber should do the Sp and Alysa the FS, but it wasn't on FSU.

A.H.Black said:
I thought the whole thing was pretty exciting. Oh, those Italians! But I guess the Italians can make anything exciting.
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Them winning a team medal on home ice is everything!

And people didn't skate to their normal potential which is why we have the actual competition and don't give out the medals ahead of time. :D
 
I felt like posting the final standings here :):

🥇Team USA (Chock/Bates, Malinin, Liu, Glenn, Kam/O'Shea)
🥈Team Japan (Miura/Kihara, Sakamoto, Kagiyama, Sato, Yoshida/Morita)
🥉Team Italy (Guignard/Fabbri, Conti/Macii, Gutmann, Rizzo, Grassl)
1
United States of America​
USA.GIF
USA
6991098671010Q
2
Japan​
JPN.GIF
JPN
681091010101036Q
3
Italy​
ITA.GIF
ITA
6068878869Q
4
Georgia​
GEO.GIF
GEO
5656699957Q
5
Canada​
CAN.GIF
CAN
5487567678Q
6
France​
FRA.GIF
FRA
FNR7-4-4-9-
7
Republic of Korea​
KOR.GIF
KOR
FNR3-7---4-
8
People's Republic of China​
CHN.GIF
CHN
FNR4-3-5-2-
9
Great Britain​
GBR.GIF
GBR
FNR1-1-2-8-
10
Poland​
POL.GIF
POL
FNR2-2-3-1-
 
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