2026 Milano-Cortina Olympics - Figure Skating Qualification

[skatingguy]

I'm sure I missed the answer to this but why not the same number of spots for pairs as for ice dance?

In total, or at Worlds? The IOC gives the ISU a number of athletes, and then the ISU figures out how many spots per discipline, and then determine when those spots will be earned. I'm assuming the difference between pairs and ice dance is based on the number of couples per warm up group, and generally there are more ice dance couples than pairs.

 

[Sabine-Yuna]

Who is the #1 Dance team in Japan, if not Yoshida/Morita?

If they don’t earn an individual spot in Beijing, as one of the top qualifying teams, they could fill in their team for dance with two of the additional athletes quota (5 in total, since Italy qualified in all individual events in Boston).

My bad. I thought about the no2 pairs team. It's right, if the Japanese dance Team would not qualify in Beijing, they could start in the team event. But in the team event only. Sorry for the confusion.

 

[zebobes]

But allow 5 warm-up groups for the FS/FD at the pre-Olympic Worlds, to allow for some of those skaters/teams that were on the cusp - Gubanova, An, Reed/Ambrulevicius, Yoshida/Morita, Hyungyeom Kim, etc - to move up into the top 24/16/20 and earn one of the coveted spots.

Then, as @tony suggests, allocate the spots in order of finish - 1-24, 1-16, 1-20 and let everyone else go to the OQE to earn the last 5 spots in singles & the last 3 spots in pairs/dance, plus allow countries who were under the point requirement to gain another spot to send 1 entry to the OQE also, as the system is currently designed.

I do think it’s kind of dumb that the SP becomes so important, that the FP becomes an after thought for most of the lower level skaters, and so this would be an interesting way to remedy that problem.

Out of all the disciplines, I do think that the level of dance is so high right now, more couples should make the FD.

 

[Karen-W]

Bumping this up now that we've hit the off-season and we've seen how things played out at WTT. Yes, WTT has a slightly different team composition than the Oly TE, but it's the best gauge of where/how things MAY shake out in the Oly TE.

 

[PRlady]

A year or two ago, with Japan’s roster of singles skaters and a star pairs team, I would have thought them very competitive for gold. Now, with Ilia’s stupendous dominance and Cho/Bat’s track record and the amazing success of US ladies, I’m not so sure!

 

[Karen-W]

A year or two ago, with Japan’s roster of singles skaters and a star pairs team, I would have thought them very competitive for gold. Now, with Ilia’s stupendous dominance and Cho/Bat’s track record and the amazing success of US ladies, I’m not so sure!

My current projection has the US winning, but I'm not super-confident about how the results in the Pairs SP will play out or Japanese men at this point. Pairs is especially unpredictable because there are a bunch of teams all capable of delivering an SP that scores 72-75 on a good day and those teams are also capable of scoring 66-67 on a bad day, with some other teams capable of scoring 66-67 on a good day - so, a top team could have a bad day & sink their team's medal prospects a LOT in the Pairs SP.

 

[PRlady]

Well if it comes down to pairs the US is in trouble.

 

[Karen-W]

Well if it comes down to pairs the US is in trouble.

It does and it doesn't. There are too many variables in the pairs event.

1) Germany could easily qualify in a 3rd event at the OQE with Gartung being age-eligible next season & his reliable 4z & 3a already in juniors. If that's the case, then Germany will be in the TE, which means MiNiki will compete in the SP.

2) Can MiuKih beat a clean/on-fire ConMac at home with the crowd behind the Italians?

3) Broken-footed Danny O'Shea nearly beat a clean MetBeru in the SP in Boston.

4) Who knows what Sui/Li will be capable of - until we see them competing in the fall, it's impossible to predict where they'll fit into the pairs picture for the TE (or if China even qualifies for the TE).

5) SDDes had a terrible season with a terrible SP & who knows where they'll fit into the pairs picture for the TE with better material & a clean skate.

6) VLDigs are a decent team who keep improving & they're good enough to play spoiler should some of the teams who regularly beat them falter.

About the only certainties in the TE Pairs SP are that Les Kovs will finish dead last & Korea won't have a team.

 

[kwanfan1818]

The assumption one-two years ago was that Sakamoto would win her segment(s), and that US Women’s placement would be based on whether Levito's technique would hold up, and if a Korean woman would play spoiler, if Korea chose to compete with three to get their "A" team a chance to compete on Olympic ice before their individual events. That would offset Malinin's advantage over the Japanese Men, where Siao Him Fa can still be a spoiler.

The US Pair was presumed to be Kam/O'Shea, if for no other reason than citizenship, and they were 11th in Montreal, the 8th-ranked nation, although Australia wasn't likely to be in the TE, and, unless Starostin can snag a spot, neither will Germany be. So it would come down to whether US Pairs would do better than Japanese Dance, with Morita/Yoshida nearly certain to get the first two Additional Athlete Quota spots, if they can't get one of the two spots in Beijing not taken by the "neutral" team and Reed/Ambrulevicius.

 

[Karen-W]

The assumption one-two years ago was that Sakamoto would win her segment(s), and that US Women’s placement would be based on whether Levito's technique would hold up, and if a Korean woman would play spoiler, if Korea chose to compete with three to get their "A" team a chance to compete on Olympic ice before their individual events. That would offset Malinin's advantage over the Japanese Men, where Siao Him Fa can still be a spoiler.

The US Pair was presumed to be Kam/O'Shea, if for no other reason than citizenship, and they were 11th in Montreal, the 8th-ranked nation, although Australia wasn't likely to be in the TE, and, unless Starostin can snag a spot, neither will Germany be. So it would come down to whether US Pairs would do better than Japanese Dance, with Morita/Yoshida nearly certain to get the first two Additional Athlete Quota spots, if they can't get one of the two spots in Beijing not taken by the "neutral" team and Reed/Ambrulevicius.

I don't think we can assume Starostin will be sent to the OQE in September. Like I said, Gartung is already a stronger skater, technically, than Starostin and his SB scores come from juniors where he's not allowed to put his very reliable 4z in the SP.

The Pairs field in Milano-Cortina is the most uncertain & unpredictable of the four disciplines. In addition to not knowing, for sure, which countries will be in the TE, there's also the question of which teams will be used in each segment - specifically will ITA & CAN switch out their pairs teams? If SDDes only compete in the SP, then we're talking about PerMich in the FS; and I'm hard-pressed to think ConMac & BecGuar won't split TE duties if BecGuar are the 2nd Italian pair. No way will FISG want to deny Guarise an Olympic medal if they can help it.

I think the pairs & dance results will cancel each other out. Whatever points advantage the US has in dance with YoMori placing last in each segment, will be offset by a similar points advantage Japan gains from MiuKih over KamOSh in pairs, but I also would say it's probably 85% likely KamOSh will finish higher in the Pairs segments than YoMori will in the Dance segments, so the US is in a slightly better position overall.

As far as singles goes, I expect it to be a wash with the US & Japan trading 1st & 2nd between the SP & FS in both men & women, but I may be wrong.

Ilia wins the SP, a Japanese man finishes 2nd - but, yes, Siao Him Fa & Cha are capable of playing spoiler in that segment. In the FS, neither Adam nor Jun will be there, so, we're talking about a Japanese man, Jason, one of the Italians, Egadze & Sadovsky - I will err on the side of lightning not striking twice like it did in Tokyo this week & Jason finishing 2nd to the Japanese man, lol.

With the women - both Amber & Alysa beat Kaori in the FS this week & Alysa beat her in a good SP contest too. No matter whether the US splits women or not, I don't see Kaori winning both segments, and I certainly can't see the 2nd Japanese woman beating the US woman either. With Korea - again, they're only a factor in the SP. Gubanova is a bigger spoiler factor, IMO, but, again, I really don't see her beating whichever US woman is competing in either segment. The way it all shakes out, I'm expecting the US & Japan to go 1-2 and flip-flop places between segments.

 

[kwanfan1818]

I don't think we can assume Starostin will be sent to the OQE in September. Like I said, Gartung is already a stronger skater, technically, than Starostin and his SB scores come from juniors where he's not allowed to put his very reliable 4z in the SP.

I'd forgotten about Gartung, who has a much, much better chance than Starosin to qualify a spot. If they do, and Germany qualifies for the TE, then the question is whether Hase/Volodin finish above Miura/Kihara or are between M/K and the US team, pushing them down another place.

I think Sakamoto's dominance until this season, combined with Glenn not having reached her potential, Liu being retired, and US Women relying on Levito are the reasons why people thought Japan had a very good chance to compensate for any points loss by Japan's Ice Dance team, with a little of Kam not landing any throws until this year for good measure. Also, a couple of years ago, Kagiyama seemed closer to Malinin than Siao Him Fa.

 

[DreamSkates]

I'm assuming everyone who has their eye on a medal at the Olympics is going to work as hard as they can to fix the mistakes and misses made at WTT. They're going to figure out how to get their points up. My prediction is an exciting and not very predictable result among the top skaters with the exception of Malinin. And I don't think he's taking any result for granted.

 

[PRlady]

Women: when I remember that Loena, Isabeau, Mone and Chaeyon all have world medals, in addition to Alysa, Amber and Kaori as favorites, wow, what an event. I’m only sorry they put Women last because I don’t have the $ to stay for two weeks in Milan, and seeing Dance took priority.

 

[Karen-W]

Women: when I remember that Loena, Isabeau, Mone and Chaeyon all have world medals, in addition to Alysa, Amber and Kaori as favorites, wow, what an event. I’m only sorry they put Women last because I don’t have the $ to stay for two weeks in Milan, and seeing Dance took priority.

Haein has a Worlds medal too - and she placed ahead of Chaeyeon in Boston. And Korea only has two spots next year, with Jia coming up from juniors. Also, Wakaba has a Worlds medal - from 2018. There are probably going to be 8-10 legitimate medal contenders in Milano-Cortina for the women.

 

[Andrea82]

Some Federation and/or Olympic Committee have been publishing their own selection criteria including ad-hoc requirements (above the ISU/IOC ones).

- Belgium:

https://teambelgium.sharepoint.com/sites/TopSportHub/HPM/Forms/AllItems.aspx?id=%2Fsites%2FTopSportHub%2FHPM%2FSel%2DCrit%2F1%2DOG%2FW%2D2026%2DMilanoCortina%2FCrit%2DNational%2FCritsel%20SKT%2DFSK%20MiCo%202026%20FR%20%2D%201%2E0%2Epdf&parent=%2Fsites%2FTopSportHub%2FHPM%2FSel%2DCrit%2F1%2DOG%2FW%2D2026%2DMilanoCortina%2FCrit%2DNational&p=true&ga=1

No further requirements in terms of scores.
Selection criteria are not particulararly well-written IMO. The scenario with 1 spots at Worlds + 1 entry for OWG Qualifying Compeititon which is not then confrimed is not really explicitly flashed out. The whole Scenario A starts with a not particularly accurate "if a skater obtains 2 qualification spots" referring to Boston. Well, 1 skaters can't earn 2 qualification spots on her own, she can earn 1 qualification spot + 1 entry for Beijing. Indeed, later in subpoint II, they refer to that. Subpoint II refers to the situation in which the spot is confirmed in Beijing.

The selection criteria for the scenario with 1 spot attained in Boston is quite weird.
Main criteria is they will look at total scores in GP event. The skater with highest score gets the ticket.
However, if no Belgian skater does GPs next season, they will look at Challenger Series. But only at SP scores. I am not sure what they have against Free Skatings in Challenger Series.

- Switzerland
https://www.swissolympicteam.ch/dam...cde0776/Concept de sélection Eiskunstlauf.pdf

They are asking some minimum total scores to be achieved. Competitions to achieve them: Europeans 2025, Worlds 2025, OWG Test Event, Beijing Olympic Qualifying Competition, Senior GPs 2025/26, Challenger Series events 2025/26, Europeans 2026, Swiss Nationals 2026

The scores are 210 for Men and 185 for Women.
So Britschgi (>210 both at Euros and Worlds 2025) and Repond (>185 at Euros 2025) have already achieved them.

- Netherlands

https://cdn.nocnsf.nl/media/zm1ftror/kwalificatiedocument-os-milano-cortina-2026-kunstschaatsen-v1.pdf

Dutch Olympic Committee is asking for a certain score to be achieved by Danilova/Tsiba.
It is the average of the scores of places 10th to 18th at Worlds. So 173.89 points.
It seems such score should be achieved in one of two pre-determined competitions which has not been named yet.

 

[skateblessing]

Some Federation and/or Olympic Committee have been publishing their own selection criteria including ad-hoc requirements (above the ISU/IOC ones).

- Belgium:

https://teambelgium.sharepoint.com/sites/TopSportHub/HPM/Forms/AllItems.aspx?id=%2Fsites%2FTopSportHub%2FHPM%2FSel%2DCrit%2F1%2DOG%2FW%2D2026%2DMilanoCortina%2FCrit%2DNational%2FCritsel%20SKT%2DFSK%20MiCo%202026%20FR%20%2D%201%2E0%2Epdf&parent=%2Fsites%2FTopSportHub%2FHPM%2FSel%2DCrit%2F1%2DOG%2FW%2D2026%2DMilanoCortina%2FCrit%2DNational&p=true&ga=1

No further requirements in terms of scores.
Selection criteria are not particulararly well-written IMO. The scenario with 1 spots at Worlds + 1 entry for OWG Qualifying Compeititon which is not then confrimed is not really explicitly flashed out. The whole Scenario A starts with a not particularly accurate "if a skater obtains 2 qualification spots" referring to Boston. Well, 1 skaters can't earn 2 qualification spots on her own, she can earn 1 qualification spot + 1 entry for Beijing. Indeed, later in subpoint II, they refer to that. Subpoint II refers to the situation in which the spot is confirmed in Beijing.

The selection criteria for the scenario with 1 spot attained in Boston is quite weird.
Main criteria is they will look at total scores in GP event. The skater with highest score gets the ticket.
However, if no Belgian skater does GPs next season, they will look at Challenger Series. But only at SP scores. I am not sure what they have against Free Skatings in Challenger Series.

Very confused about Belgium requirements. Pinzarrone seems very confident she is going to Milano, given her recent IG post. I read the someone had found an article before Worlds that she will get the spot as long as she is top 10 at Worlds. But that doens´t seem to be confirmed from the document here?

I try to understand what happens in the scenario if Loena isn´t healthy enough to go to Beijing to confirm the second spot, and they for example send Hovine but she isn´t able to defend the spot. Will Pinzarrone still need to somehow show better results then Loena in other competitions to get that one spot?

 

[AngieNikodinovLove (ANL)]

Some Federation and/or Olympic Committee have been publishing their own selection criteria including ad-hoc requirements (above the ISU/IOC ones).

- Belgium:

https://teambelgium.sharepoint.com/sites/TopSportHub/HPM/Forms/AllItems.aspx?id=%2Fsites%2FTopSportHub%2FHPM%2FSel%2DCrit%2F1%2DOG%2FW%2D2026%2DMilanoCortina%2FCrit%2DNational%2FCritsel%20SKT%2DFSK%20MiCo%202026%20FR%20%2D%201%2E0%2Epdf&parent=%2Fsites%2FTopSportHub%2FHPM%2FSel%2DCrit%2F1%2DOG%2FW%2D2026%2DMilanoCortina%2FCrit%2DNational&p=true&ga=1

No further requirements in terms of scores.
Selection criteria are not particulararly well-written IMO. The scenario with 1 spots at Worlds + 1 entry for OWG Qualifying Compeititon which is not then confrimed is not really explicitly flashed out. The whole Scenario A starts with a not particularly accurate "if a skater obtains 2 qualification spots" referring to Boston. Well, 1 skaters can't earn 2 qualification spots on her own, she can earn 1 qualification spot + 1 entry for Beijing. Indeed, later in subpoint II, they refer to that. Subpoint II refers to the situation in which the spot is confirmed in Beijing.

The selection criteria for the scenario with 1 spot attained in Boston is quite weird.
Main criteria is they will look at total scores in GP event. The skater with highest score gets the ticket.
However, if no Belgian skater does GPs next season, they will look at Challenger Series. But only at SP scores. I am not sure what they have against Free Skatings in Challenger Series.

- Switzerland
https://www.swissolympicteam.ch/dam/jcr:82782135-3171-485f-b869-11ac5cde0776/Concept de sélection Eiskunstlauf.pdf

They are asking some minimum total scores to be achieved. Competitions to achieve them: Europeans 2025, Worlds 2025, OWG Test Event, Beijing Olympic Qualifying Competition, Senior GPs 2025/26, Challenger Series events 2025/26, Europeans 2026, Swiss Nationals 2026

The scores are 210 for Men and 185 for Women.
So Britschgi (>210 both at Euros and Worlds 2025) and Repond (>185 at Euros 2025) have already achieved them.

- Netherlands

https://cdn.nocnsf.nl/media/zm1ftror/kwalificatiedocument-os-milano-cortina-2026-kunstschaatsen-v1.pdf

Dutch Olympic Committee is asking for a certain score to be achieved by Danilova/Tsiba.
It is the average of the scores of places 10th to 18th at Worlds. So 173.89 points.
It seems such score should be achieved in one of two pre-determined competitions which has not been named yet.

Does that mean they won’t send them if they don’t? Sounds very Swedish to me.

 

[skateblessing]

Does that mean they won’t send them if they don’t? Sounds very Swedish to me.

Well at least the average of top 10 to top 18 at Worlds is more achievable then top 8 score at Worlds which has been Sweden former requirement. Hope they will drop their document soon, interesting to know if they still will stick with top 8 score.

From what I can tell, they have reached such a score in GP last season, so that means they have a good chance. Only thing I find concerning if there is only two chances because it has to be reached at two pre-determined competitions. Pressure is on those competitions and mistakes can then easily happen. They should have more chances to put the pressure off.

Dutch OC might also have a promising athlete exception as well if they don´t reach the score?

 

[Karen-W]

The pressure will certainly be on them, but they have the benefit of being able to pick the events they want to designate - or, rather, the KNSB has to submit the designated event at least 1 week ahead of time for approval by the Dutch NOC. So, basically, they can pick any ol' Senior B happening between Oct 1 & Jan 1 to get the minimum score. The doc doesn't even specify that it needs to be a Challenger or a GP, so they could choose IceChallenge or Diamond Spin or NRW Trophy, which are very lowkey senior Bs that usually have pairs competitions with generous panels.