2026 Milano-Cortina Olympics - Figure Skating Qualification

[skatingguy]

A place for questions, queries, and speculation regarding Olympic qualification.

Probably the first thing we should note is that the singles events are down to 29 entries from 30 in the last number of Olympics.

https://stillmed.olympics.com/media/Documents/Olympic-Games/Milano-Cortina-2026/qualification-system/Qualification-System-for-Figure-Skating.pdf

 

[Karen-W]

A place for questions, queries, and speculation regarding Olympic qualification.

Probably the first thing we should note is that the singles events are down to 29 entries from 30 in the last number of Olympics.

https://stillmed.olympics.com/media/Documents/Olympic-Games/Milano-Cortina-2026/qualification-system/Qualification-System-for-Figure-Skating.pdf

Seems right/fair - Ice Dance has been 24 and Pairs 19 for at least 2 Olympic cycles now.

ETA - Ice Dance has been reduced to 23 teams. The qualification for those spots will be brutal!

 

[skatingguy]

Seems right/fair - Ice Dance has been 24 and Pairs 19 for at least 2 Olympic cycles now.

ETA - Ice Dance has been reduced to 23 teams. The qualification for those spots will be brutal!

Ice Dance was at 23 in 2022. Overall the sport is down from 144 athletes to 142.

 

[Karen-W]

Ice Dance was at 23 in 2022. Overall the sport is down from 144 athletes to 142.

Oy! The IOC really is making this harder and harder to qualify.

 

[TAHbKA]

Does it mean that if an Italian lady does not qualify there will be 30 ladies participating (am not even considering a scenario where a man/ice dance team/pair team from Italy don't qualify)

 

[skatingguy]

Does it mean that if an Italian lady does not qualify there will be 30 ladies participating (am not even considering a scenario where a man/ice dance team/pair team from Italy don't qualify)

Yes, there are 5 Additional Athlete Quota that can be used for Host Country quota.

 

[Karen-W]

From the Milano-Cortina ticket prices thread - the schedule...

I got an email with the official ticket-lodging-hospitality packages, and it has the schedule of events:

Friday, Feb 6 - 9:55-14:55 CEST - Team Event Women SP + RD + Pairs SP
Saturday, Feb 7 - 19:45-22:55 CEST - Team Event Men SP + FD
Sunday, Feb 8 - 19:30-23:05 CEST - Team Event Women FS + Men FS + Pairs FS
Monday, Feb 9 - 19:20-22:55 CEST - RD
Tuesday, Feb 10 - 18:30-22:45 CEST - Men SP
Wednesday, Feb 11 - 19:30-23:10 CEST - FD
Friday, Feb 13 - 19:00-23:15 CEST - Men FS
Sunday, Feb 15 - 19:45-22:55 CEST - Pairs SP
Monday, Feb 16 - 20:00-23:10 CEST - Pairs FS
Tuesday, Feb 17 - 18:30-22:45 CEST - Women SP
Thursday, Feb 19 - 19:00-23:15 CEST - Women FS
Saturday, Feb 21 - 20:00-22:30 CEST - Gala

Should make for some interesting TE strategy choices.

Italy's at a disadvantage with only one truly competitive dance team to put on the ice in the TE when they're also a strong medal contender. Easy choice for Italy to split Men & Pairs.

Canada, OTOH, is in a good spot with regard to dance since they can easily split the assignments between GilPoir and LajLag.

It's also going to make it interesting for the US if the men don't sort themselves out - splitting the dance assignments seems likely as they won't want to wear ChoBat out with that kind of competition schedule. Same would be true for Malinin, except there aren't any really other competitive men at this point and there's no way the US will want to give up all those points, esp to Japan or Italy.

Obviously, Japan still splits Men & Women.

Who knows who the 5th country to qualify for the FS/FD part of the TE will be - should be either France or Georgia. If it's France, obviously, they'd split Dance & Men. Georgia wouldn't be able to split any discipline unless they import a pairs team from Russia within the next couple months.

 

[Debbie S]

The scheduling complicates things, but I doubt the U.S. will split dance. Unlike with singles, competing against your main rivals (and beating them) in the TE is important to building political advantage heading into the individual event. The U.S. did substitute last time, since both teams were pretty much equal in terms of score and placement, and H/D and C/B and their coaches had agreed to it ahead of time. Plus the gold medal favorite wasn't in the TE.

In Milan, the top 3 contenders will all be competing in the TE and I doubt G/F or G/P will give up their chance to get in front of the judges before the individual event, so I don't think C/B will give up that opportunity either.

 

[Theatregirl1122]

My understanding is that the US does not strategize much at all. They let the top ranked competitor in the top ranked discipline choose if they want to split. Then the next ranked discipline on down until both splits are used. Someone correct me if I’m wrong, but that was how they explained it the last two times. With gold absolutely on the line, they may rethink this, but who knows.

If things stand as they are and that is the method, I would guess this would mean:

Cho/Bat choose first. As they are competing for two gold medals, they have a hard choice to make. The ranking of the team behind them and which teams are expected to make the Free may affect this choice.

Ilia chooses second- same situation for Ilia, honestly.

If both of them choose to split, ladies and pairs are doing both. If either chooses not to, whoever is the top ranked lady likely gets to choose next. Pairs would be last.

 

[Debbie S]

I would expect Ilia to only skate the SP. Men will definitely be split.

The list of entries for the FS/FD isn't due until after the SP/RD is finished, right? So yes, if neither Italy nor Canada qualifies for the free, maybe C/B would only skate the RD, but I think the chances of both Italy and Canada missing the cut are slim and even then, C/B might still see value in getting in front of the judges

 

[Karen-W]

The scheduling complicates things, but I doubt the U.S. will split dance. Unlike with singles, competing against your main rivals (and beating them) in the TE is important to building political advantage heading into the individual event. The U.S. did substitute last time, since both teams were pretty much equal in terms of score and placement, and H/D and C/B and their coaches had agreed to it ahead of time. Plus the gold medal favorite wasn't in the TE.

Skipping the TE in 2018 didn't hurt PapCiz - her RD dress coming undone hurt them more.

In Milan, the top 3 contenders will all be competing in the TE and I doubt G/F or G/P will give up their chance to get in front of the judges before the individual event, so I don't think C/B will give up that opportunity either.

GuigFab aren't going to have a choice. GilPoir and ChoBat could easily forego the RD and let LajLag & CarPon take that on, especially if the feds and teams are being strategic here. It won't help GuigFab to win the RD against the Can & US #2s, nor will it hurt GilPoir & ChoBat to skip one portion of the TE, especially with the Dance event immediately following the TE.

Points matter and we may very well see LajLag and GilPoir more evenly viewed by the middle of next season (similar to HubDon & ChoBat in 2022). I could see Skate Canada putting LajLag on the ice in the TE RD to see if they can nip past GuigFab and damage them a little heading into the Dance event, damage that would be further compounded if GuigFab then lose to both ChoBat & GilPoir in the TE FD.

I do think it's very likely that both ChoBat & GilPoir will do one portion of the TE - good opportunity to get out there on the Olympic ice in front of a crowd, shake out the cobwebs & nerves, etc. I just don't think it's likely that they're going to do both portions of the TE, not with the individual Dance comp starting 2 days later.

My understanding is that the US does not strategize much at all. They let the top ranked competitor in the top ranked discipline choose if they want to split. Then the next ranked discipline on down until both splits are used. Someone correct me if I’m wrong, but that was how they explained it the last two times. With gold absolutely on the line, they may rethink this, but who knows.

I don't think the USFS has put much into strategizing the first three Olympics because gold was between Russia & Canada (2014 & 2018) or Russia was running away with it (2022), with the US coming up short and they knew it going in. I do think that NBC and the USOPC may want the US to get off to a really great start and winning TE gold for the 2nd straight Olympics would be a good way to do that, so they may ask the USFS to be more strategic about it.

If things stand as they are and that is the method, I would guess this would mean:

Cho/Bat choose first. As they are competing for two gold medals, they have a hard choice to make. The ranking of the team behind them and which teams are expected to make the Free may affect this choice.

Ilia chooses second- same situation for Ilia, honestly.

If both of them choose to split, ladies and pairs are doing both. If either chooses not to, whoever is the top ranked lady likely gets to choose next. Pairs would be last.

I would expect Ilia to only skate the SP. Men will definitely be split.

Yes, my expectation is that Ilia will DEFINITELY only skate the SP. Without a 2nd strong man, it makes the math harder to run away with gold against Japan because you have to figure that you're looking at 4th place in the FS - Japan, Italy & France will split men and however you slice it (Kagiyama/Miura/Sato, Grassl/Rizzo, Siao Him Fa/Aymoz) right now, none of Torgashev/Brown/Sanchez are beating those guys. That's 4 points you give up right there.

If ChoBat are willing to do both, then, sure you make up those points against Japan easily in dance. If not, strategically, I'd actually probably put CarPon in the RD portion - (ITA, GBR, CAN, USA, FRA, GEO, GER, KOR, JPN), because that's likely to negate any lost points from the Men in the FS, especially if you put ChoBat in the FD, knowing that their placement will help pad the lead they'll need to hold onto with the Women & Pairs.

We'll see, and there are a lot of pieces left to fill in - primarily which countries qualify for the TE and which countries have multiple entries in different disciplines.

 

[Theatregirl1122]

Generally the strategy is to put your stronger performer in the short where you can lose a lot more points. What would be the value of doing the opposite, especially when skating the FD creates the problem of shortest possible turn around?

 

[Karen-W]

Generally the strategy is to put your stronger performer in the short where you can lose a lot more points. What would be the value of doing the opposite, especially when skating the FD creates the problem of shortest possible turn around?

Eh... I think it's six of one, half-dozen of another when it comes to ice dance where the results are relatively static.

I haven't really done a lot of math yet on TE strategy since we're another year out from knowing which countries have qualified, plus the dance field seems a little fluid right now and I'm not confident we won't see some additional tightening of the points gap in both the RD and the FD between most of the top 7 teams (representing 5 countries) in the next year.

 

[kwanfan1818]

Georgia wouldn't be able to split any discipline unless they import a pairs team from Russia within the next couple months.

The Olympic Charter requires an exception by the IOC for anyone who represented another country at championships within the three years of the OGs:

Bye-law to Rule 41

2. A competitor who has represented one country in the Olympic Games, in continental or regional games or in world or regional championships recognised by the relevant IF, and who has changed his nationality or acquired a new nationality, may participate in the Olympic Games to represent his new country provided that at least three years have passed since the competitor last represented his former country. This period may be reduced or even cancelled, with the agreement of the NOCs and IF concerned, by the IOC Executive Board, which takes into account the circumstances of each case.

My understanding is that the US does not strategize much at all. They let the top ranked competitor in the top ranked discipline choose if they want to split. Then the next ranked discipline on down until both splits are used. Someone correct me if I’m wrong, but that was how they explained it the last two times. With gold absolutely on the line, they may rethink this, but who knows.

That has been the case for all three. It made more sense for the first, where so many skaters were skeptical about it, but not so much going forward.

However, the skaters have to declare in December whether they want to compete in the TE if they are selected for the Olympic team for the individual events, and, if so, which program or both they want to compete it. Chock/Bates and Malinin are likely to be able to say what they want for real, but how many other skaters or teams would be willing to risk the wrath of the Fed going into Nationals? Plus in all three Olympic years, the Fed reserves the right to try to strong arm the skaters into what they want to see.

IIRC the difference in 2022 was that they had some numbers points/scores formula to rank the skaters/teams going into the consideration pool, but not an absolute ranking for selection.

Cho/Bat choose first. As they are competing for two gold medals, they have a hard choice to make. The ranking of the team behind them and which teams are expected to make the Free may affect this choice.

Ilia chooses second- same situation for Ilia, honestly.

It doesn't matter to either, since they each have a true choice, so why piss off or show less confidence in one or the other, when there's no reason to disclose which discipline is "first"? The message should be 100% support for both, without ranking them cross-discipline.

 

[Karen-W]

The Olympic Charter requires an exception by the IOC for anyone who represented another country at championships within the three years of the OGs:

Well, my comment about Georgia importing another Russian pairs team wasn't in reference to either MishGal or BoiKoz, but pretty much any other Russian pairs team since none of them have competed internationally anywhere since Feb 2022.

That has been the case for all three. It made more sense for the first, where so many skaters were skeptical about it, but not so much going forward.

I agree, they were pretty short-sighted in 2018, IMO, and probably should have split Men & Dance then too, but we also know that the ShibSibs said they wanted to do both portions of the TE and that was that.

It worked out in 2022 that the two disciplines that made the MOST sense to split (Men & Dance) had competitors that were all in agreement to do only one segment each. In no way would anyone have wanted the US splitting the Women like we did in both 2014 & 2018 - they were going to be a crapshoot no matter what.

Going into 2026, we could have a situation where, on paper, Dance & Women are the two stronger disciplines with likely higher placements from two different competitors in each segment than the Men, even if Ilia is a stronger gold medal favorite in Men than anyone of our Women would be. That's what makes it an interesting discussion - and gives the US more/better options, depending on what the different skaters in question want to do.

However, the skaters have to declare in December whether they want to compete in the TE if they are selected for the Olympic team for the individual events, and, if so, which program or both they want to compete it. Chock/Bates and Malinin are likely to be able to say what they want for real, but how many other skaters or teams would be willing to risk the wrath of the Fed going into Nationals? Plus in all three Olympic years, the Fed reserves the right to try to strong arm the skaters into what they want to see.

IIRC the difference in 2022 was that they had some numbers points/scores formula to rank the skaters/teams going into the consideration pool, but not an absolute ranking for selection.

2022 was also impacted by the stuff we didn't know about happening behind the scenes - like the concerns for Alysa's safety and wanting her to be in Beijing only as long as necessary, plus her Nats Covid diagnosis.

I do agree, only Chock/Bates and Malinin are likely to be able to tell the USFS exactly which segments of the TE they're willing to do and everyone else is going to be "whatever you want, I'll do".

 

[leilaofpaper]

If Ilia was willing to do both portions, I’d be splitting dance and women if I was the USFS.

 

[leilaofpaper]

All this said, I feel like the schedule also plays a part, and given dance and men are up first that may well be a reason to split those fields.

 

[Karen-W]

If Ilia was willing to do both portions, I’d be splitting dance and women if I was the USFS.

All this said, I feel like the schedule also plays a part, and given dance and men are up first that may well be a reason to split those fields.

That's how I look at it too. It would be a lot better/easier if the Men was the 2nd week instead of the 1st week. I also don't understand why the organizers and FISG didn't tell the IOC/ISU that they wanted the Men to end rather than the Women because Italy has a better shot at a medal in Men than Women, lol.

 

[kwanfan1818]

Well, my comment about Georgia importing another Russian pairs team wasn't in reference to either MishGal or BoiKoz, but pretty much any other Russian pairs team since none of them have competed internationally anywhere since Feb 2022.

There are Russian skaters competing for other countries now, those that don't have hope of being in the TE, let alone making the final. Some have citizenship and others may be waiting for it. But they'd need an exception by the IOC to be poached to skate for Georgia.

 

[Coco]

Any chance of rule changes for the team event between now and the event, like maybe new life after the 1st round and different point totals for the Free Skate/Dance?

 

[Karen-W]

There are Russian skaters competing for other countries now, those that don't have hope of being in the TE, let alone making the final. Some have citizenship and others may be waiting for it. But they'd need an exception by the IOC to be poached to skate for Georgia.

I'm doubtful any of those skaters who are interested in switching to represent Georgia at this point. They'll focus on qualifying for the individual Pairs or Men's events.

Any chance of rule changes for the team event between now and the event, like maybe new life after the 1st round and different point totals for the Free Skate/Dance?

No. The Olympic qualification document has been published and includes the TE structure.

 

[Theatregirl1122]

It doesn't matter to either, since they each have a true choice, so why piss off or show less confidence in one or the other, when there's no reason to disclose which discipline is "first"? The message should be 100% support for both, without ranking them cross-discipline.

I wasn’t commenting on who was ranked first of the two disciplines? Just on what they would choose.

 

[kwanfan1818]

I wasn’t commenting on who was ranked first of the two disciplines? Just on what they would choose.

You wrote, "
Cho/Bat choose first. As they are competing for two gold medals, they have a hard choice to make. The ranking of the team behind them and which teams are expected to make the Free may affect this choice.

Ilia chooses second- same situation for Ilia, honestly."

By the USFS docs, that means the rankings are Dance, then Men, ie, C/B are stronger than Malinin.

Why would USFS disclose the 1/2 ranking, when the top two have a choice regardless of what the other wants? Each have to list their preferences in December, and USFS knows what they want ahead of time.

 

[Karen-W]

Well, we're assuming that the disciplines will remain ranked Dance, Men, Women, Pairs post-Worlds 2025.

 

[Theatregirl1122]

You wrote, "
Cho/Bat choose first. As they are competing for two gold medals, they have a hard choice to make. The ranking of the team behind them and which teams are expected to make the Free may affect this choice.

Ilia chooses second- same situation for Ilia, honestly."

By the USFS docs, that means the rankings are Dance, then Men, ie, C/B are stronger than Malinin.

Why would USFS disclose the 1/2 ranking, when the top two have a choice regardless of what the other wants? Each have to list their preferences in December, and USFS knows what they want ahead of time.

Okay, it was a guess? And one that was irrelevant to the point I was actually making?

 

[PRlady]

Until Italy and France have a top-10 woman, unlikely unless Anna Pezzeta gets her act together, they’re really handicapped. I’d rather be the US with slightly less successful pairs than Italy and only one dependable guy - especially because Aymoz is entirely unpredictable and the Italian guys are flukey too.

Right now it seems Japan is a lock for gold. Having a top-three pairs team and a plethora of singles skaters is hard to beat.

 

[Karen-W]

Until Italy and France have a top-10 woman, unlikely unless Anna Pezzeta gets her act together, they’re really handicapped. I’d rather be the US with slightly less successful pairs than Italy and only one dependable guy - especially because Aymoz is entirely unpredictable and the Italian guys are flukey too.

Right now it seems Japan is a lock for gold. Having a top-three pairs team and a plethora of singles skaters is hard to beat.

Lol. Did you miss Gutmann at Finlandia a couple weeks ago? Sure, she's inconsistent, but she's easily capable of Top 10.

Presuming the US is strategically aiming for gold and both they and ChoBat agree that they should skate in both portions of the TE...

Japan has a far weaker dance team than the US' weakest discipline with pairs. As far as I'm concerned, those two disciplines cancel each other out in the TE points-wise. And the US' advantage in dance is comparable to Japan's advantage in pairs, so, again, they cancel each other out, points-wise.

Glenn has demonstrated she has the ability to outscore Sakamoto or any other Japnese woman in the SP, and we know where Malinin is likely to place in the SP. The bigger problem is the FS - none of our guys have yet to put up a FS score that matches the best we've seen from any Japanese, French or Italian man this season, and if Georgia winds up in the FS segment over Canada, then our 2nd guy also has to beat Egadze. On the women's side, I think the US is possibly able to go up against any Japanese woman, but out women have shown some vulnerability in the FS that would have me worried we'd lose to them - though Glenn has proven capable enough on the GP this season.

On paper, yes, Japan has the slight advantage. Maybe enough so that the US decides silver is more likely and, in that scenario, they may very well let ChoBat skip the TE or only do one segment.

It'll be interesting to see how everything shakes out the rest of the season and next.

 

[kwanfan1818]

C/B and Malinin are aiming for the individual OGM. For what it’s worth in pixels, the USFS documents also say that if participation in the TE would hurt their chances in the individual events, the individual > team. Both C/B and Malinin have the record to make that a consideration.

 

[Theatregirl1122]

They do, but we have not seen a ton of skaters choosing not to compete in the TE at all when their team has a podium shot. Many skaters want a shot at multiple Olympic medals.

 

[kwanfan1818]

I don’t expect anyone to skip the TE. The question is whether they’ll want to skate both segments.
In 2022 the official word, anyway, was that H/D and C/B wanted to split the event between them. While C/B hadn’t made the Worlds podium in that Olympic cycle, C/B beat H/D at US Nationals and each head-to-head match-up at 4C’s and were a clear #2, no matter how much some of us thought that H/B should have been. While Vincent Zhu missed the FS at one Worlds, he also had World bronze, and his upside was solidly behind Chen. I don’t see any discipline in the US in this cycle that has a predictable and close/close enough second with those kind of international results, and although the five-teams-in-the-final format flattens things out, the participants vying for the finals are stronger.

USFS could wait to see who the final five are and then press what they want, because they might not care what impact the decision might have on the next US teams, like the way Skate Canada didn’t care about a demoralized Weaver/Poje when they could have competed in the FD in 2018. At the moment at least, Carreira/Ponomarenko appear to be the heirs apparent to C/B, but while, C/B would be predicted to beat G/F, even if at home, and any of the French teams, C/P could, at least on paper, lose to either of them in the FD. Were Canada to somehow make the finals, that’s a potential 4th place vs. first.

C/B could decide that this is their moment, and that they don’t need to save anything and aim to skate both. They could decide at their age and condition, they want to conserve themselves for the individual event by skating one. They could decide that while they could skate two without hurting their individual chances, they want to share the experience. They theoretically could decide after the RD. Then there would be USFS potential pressing their agenda.