2025-26 US Pairs Discussion - Milano-Bound By Way of Beijing & St. Louis

[tangerine dream]

Tanith moved to Michigan in 1998 and got her green card in 2002. Since she's not married to a US citizen then, she would be required to wait 5 years for naturalization, or 2007.

The amendment filed by Sen. Carl Levin of MI I think allowed individuals to file an immigrant worker application and green card application at the same time, reducing the wait for citizenship. Tanith would have been in some sort of visa (most likely the extraordinary ability visa) before getting the green card (most likely filed the application for green card 12-24 months prior to the receipt of green card). Levin's bill would shorten the naturalization process for immigrants of “extraordinary ability.

From what I remember there was an immigration rule change around 2001-2002 that sped up the process for citizenship by allowing one to apply for a visa and a green card at the same time. The way it was implemented resulted in two sets of timelines for citizenship, a slower one for those who applied before the rule change (i.e., Tanith), and a quicker one for those who applied after. The amendment Carl Levin filed was to correct this discrepancy and allow those who applied before the rule change (and who were still waiting) to have the same timeline as those who applied after. Thus, the amendment didn't just help Tanith because she was a star athlete (although that was the reason it was proposed), but actually sped up the citizenship process for a whole group of people who had applied before the rule change.

A congressional bill to give Efimova citizenship would be extremely different from the Belbin case (not that I would be against it).

 

[Karen-W]

Alright then... With the conclusion of the Pairs event, here is who is in the Selection Pools for the Olympics, Worlds/4CCs and Jr Worlds -

Skater

Level

Age Eligible

ISU Min Score (91/75/63)

2026 U.S. Nats

GPF

GP/ JGP 1

GP/ JGP 2

GP/ JPG Highest

GP/ JGP Avg

CS/ Sr B/ Jr Int 1

CS/ Sr B/ Jr Int 2

CS/ Sr B/ Jr Int Highest

CS/ Sr B/ Jr Int Avg

Pairs Final (Top 2 in each Section JR/SR)

NQS Score (Top 2 in each Section JR/SR)

Prev Yr Final Number

Total

Efimova, Alisa/Mitrofanov, Misha

S

Y

Y

207.71​

0.00​

193.00​

205.49​

205.49​

199.25​

193.54​

193.79​

193.79​

193.67​

0.00​

0.00​

12​

1855.80​

Kam, Ellie/O'Shea, Danny

S

Y

Y

197.12​

0.00​

199.11​

199.09​

199.11​

199.10​

176.32​

141.06​

176.32​

158.69​

0.00​

0.00​

10​

1731.58​

McBeath, Katie/Parkman, Daniil

S

Y

Y

187.45​

0.00​

178.08​

181.70​

181.70​

179.89​

187.89​

183.81​

187.89​

185.85​

0.00​

0.00​

2​

1559.07​

Chan, Emily/Howe, Spencer

S

Y

Y

186.52​

0.00​

187.40​

180.02​

187.40​

183.71​

183.22​

193.70​

193.70​

188.46​

0.00​

0.00​

0​

1545.01​

Shin, Audrey/Nagy, Balasz

S

Y

Y

185.10​

0.00​

173.30​

138.64​

173.30​

155.97​

179.25​

194.00​

194.00​

186.63​

0.00​

170.77​

0​

1528.65​

Plazas, Valentina/Fernandez, Maximiliano

S

Y

Y

180.80​

0.00​

163.26​

130.61​

163.26​

146.93​

179.18​

183.17​

183.17​

181.18​

0.00​

0.00​

0​

1429.99​

Liu, Chelsea/Bedard, Ryan

S

Y

Y

175.56​

0.00​

0.00​

0.00​

144.59​

144.59​

179.87​

181.60​

181.60​

180.74​

0.00​

174.43​

0​

1424.47​

Moss, Reagan/Galbavy, Jakub

S/J

Y

N/JW

173.00​

0.00​

144.40​

146.74​

146.74​

145.57​

155.70​

141.26​

155.70​

148.48​

0.00​

155.70​

0​

1363.37​

Flores, Olivia/Wang, Luke

S/J

Y

4CCs/JW

175.86​

0.00​

161.44​

129.15​

161.44​

145.30​

122.66​

98.13​

122.66​

110.39​

0.00​

0.00​

0​

1292.32​

Jarmoc, Sofia/Witkowski, Luke

J

Y

JW

156.61​

0.00​

125.33​

149.66​

149.66​

137.50​

0.00​

0.00​

110.00​

110.00​

149.93​

143.03​

0​

1288.60​

Williams, Naomi/Lewer, Lachlan

S/J

Y

4CCs/JW

152.86​

0.00​

159.63​

146.20​

159.63​

152.92​

148.14​

118.51​

148.14​

133.33​

0.00​

0.00​

0​

1250.26​

Fitzpatrick, Linzy/Bearinger, Keyton

S

Y

4CCs

151.93​

0.00​

0.00​

0.00​

111.51​

111.51​

125.91​

152.87​

152.87​

139.39​

157.07​

0.00​

0​

1222.45​

Kovar, Milada/McPike, Jared

J

Y

JW

142.98​

0.00​

121.66​

97.33​

121.66​

109.49​

0.00​

0.00​

87.60​

87.60​

130.51​

0.00​

0​

1079.41​

McDanold, Addyson/Felberbaum, Aaron

S/J

Y

JW

136.95​

0.00​

120.54​

96.43​

120.54​

108.49​

0.00​

0.00​

86.79​

86.79​

0.00​

146.33​

0​

1022.55​

Taich, Baylen/Apter, Nikolai

J

Y

N

135.11​

0.00​

0.00​

0.00​

0.00​

0.00​

0.00​

0.00​

0.00​

0.00​

125.97​

123.05​

0​

634.19​

Kerr, Alena/Herbert, Sam

J

Y

N

140.53​

0.00​

0.00​

0.00​

0.00​

0.00​

0.00​

0.00​

0.00​

0.00​

120.44​

0.00​

0​

622.34​

Oh, Kaitlyn/Chapa, Michael

J

Y

N

127.84​

0.00​

0.00​

0.00​

0.00​

0.00​

0.00​

0.00​

0.00​

0.00​

112.70​

116.73​

0​

596.89​

Kaplan, Gabrielle / Griffin, Carter

J

Y

N

125.15​

0.00​

0.00​

0.00​

0.00​

0.00​

0.00​

0.00​

0.00​

0.00​

125.09​

113.65​

0​

591.56​

Meek, Juliet/Meek, Devin

J

Y

N

115.01​

0.00​

0.00​

0.00​

0.00​

0.00​

0.00​

0.00​

0.00​

0.00​

0.00​

0.00​

0​

460.04​

Olympics, Worlds & 4CCs - 6 teams total -
Efimova/Mitrofanov (no citizenship), Kam/O'Shea, McBeath/Parkman (no citizenship), Chan/Howe, Shin/Nagy, Plazas/Fernandez

Top 5 Selection Calculation - Efimova/Mitrofanov (no citizenship), Kam/O'Shea, McBeath/Parkman (no citizenship), Chan/Howe, Shin/Nagy
Top 5 from 2026 Nationals - Efimova/Mitrofanov (no citizenship), Kam/O'Shea, McBeath/Parkman (no citizenship), Chan/Howe, Shin/Nagy
Top 10 from 2025 Worlds - Efimova/Mitrofanov (no citizenship), Kam/O'Shea
Top 24 Current Season World Rankings - Efimova/Mitrofanov 6 (no citizenship), Chan/Howe 7, McBeath/Parkman 8 (no citizenship), Kam/O'Shea 11, Shin/Nagy 13, Plazas/Fernandez 16


Jr Worlds - 8 teams total -
Moss/Galbavy, Flores/Wang, Jarmoc/Witkowski, Williams/Lewer, Kovar/McPike, Kerr/Herbert, McDanold/Felberbaum, Taich/Apter

Top 5 Selection Calculation - Moss/Galbavy, Flores/Wang, Jarmoc/Witkowski, Williams/Lewer, Kovar/McPike
Top 5 Age-Eligible from 2026 Jr Nats - Moss/Galbavy, Jarmoc/Witkowski, Kovar/McPike, Kerr/Herbert, McDanold/Felberbaum
Top 5 Age-Eligible from 2026 Sr Nats - Flores/Wang, Williams/Lewer
Top 10 from 2025 Jr Worlds - Flores/Wang, Williams/Lewer
Top 24 Current Season Jr World Rankings - Moss/Galbavy 6, Williams/Lewer 9, Jarmoc/Witkowski 12, McDanold/Felberbaum 17, Taich/Apter 23 (do not have CTES mins)

 

[kwanfan1818]

hus, the amendment didn't just help Tanith because she was a star athlete (although that was the reason it was proposed), but actually sped up the citizenship process for a whole group of people who had applied before the rule change.

The way I remember it is that this was the original intention, but the final outcome was to impact a small number of specific people, possibly a few more than Belbin/Agosto and Matthews/Zavozin, but not the entire class that the original legislation was meant to include.

 

[tangerine dream]

The way I remember it is that this was the original intention, but the final outcome was to impact a small number of specific people, possibly a few more than Belbin/Agosto and Matthews/Zavozin, but not the entire class that the original legislation was meant to include.

Interesting, I didn't know that. That's kind of a shame if true, but I imagine it's very hard to draft legislation and get it passed and perhaps they were hitting obstacles and did what was necessary to at least get it expedited for Belbin (and Zavozin).

 

[Spiralgraph]

Good grief. After that exhausting and underwhelming pairs LP. I have no idea what the committee might do. . I love Danny and I'm pretty sure he and Ellie will be selected. As for that second spot.. yikes.. I'm not going to worry over it, but at this point I almost think Tai and Randy will be a better choice.

 

[Theatregirl1122]

I think it’s pretty clear that they’ll select K/O and C/H for the Olympics. What would make them do otherwise? If they think there’s a shot for Alisa in the next week, I think they’ll select K/O and TBA with the intention that it’s C/H if E/M don’t get citizenship, which I can’t imagine they will.

The event wasn’t well skated, but I’m not sure. I understand what other choice people think might be made.

For worlds, they should take the top three from nationals and I will be pretty annoyed if they screw over McPark again.

 

[SidelineSkater]

Good grief. After that exhausting and underwhelming pairs LP. I have no idea what the committee might do. . I love Danny and I'm pretty sure he and Ellie will be selected. As for that second spot.. yikes.. I'm not going to worry over it, but at this point I almost think Tai and Randy will be a better choice.

Agreed. It shows under pressure, none of the teams could hold up. Granted they faced different types of pressure, but none truly skated up to the nationals gold standard.

One of the biggest head scratchers was McBeath/Parkman going for the 3F. I know they’ve attempted and landed them before, but they could have elevated themselves with a cleaner skate. Hopefully they get a worlds slot.

 

[peibeck]

was told by two people yesterday that Chan/Howe didn't get the Olympic trial event last summer because they had hardly been practicing. Varying accounts of why (him doing his enlistment duties/her unhappy with him enlisting/ongoing tensions between them), but it wasn't that the USFS just preferred Shin/Nagy over them.

 

[her grace]

McBeath/Parkman were the obvious choice for the OQE. Higher finish at nationals and much better BOW than Shin/Nagy.

 

[Karen-W]

McBeath/Parkman were the obvious choice for the OQE. Higher finish at nationals and much better BOW than Shin/Nagy.

Exactly! There was no requirement that the team we sent to the OQE had to be eligible or on the path to becoming eligible for the Olympics - just that they couldn't have been in the FS at 2025 Worlds.

 

[Sarah]

Exactly! There was no requirement that the team we sent to the OQE had to be eligible or on the path to becoming eligible for the Olympics - just that they couldn't have been in the FS at 2025 Worlds.

I’m actually curious. Did/would they want it? It’s a fair question. I could imagine they’d want to put energy into challengers vs OQE…

 

[Karen-W]

I’m actually curious. Did/would they want it? It’s a fair question. I could imagine they’d want to put energy into challengers vs OQE…

No idea. It would have been a good chance to really get themselves in the USFS' good graces by earning the spot for the benefit of the US' pairs program overall.

 

[Sarah]

No idea. It would have been a good chance to really get themselves in the USFS' good graces by earning the spot for the benefit of the US' pairs program overall.

True. But if M/P weren’t competing for the spot (by choice) and C/H had barely been training/tension/army commitments and P/F were coming back from injury and a year off, S/N winning the spot “by a lot” makes a lot more sense. Obviously this is all speculation. Or everyone was a complete disaster which is also possible because US pairs.

 

[Karen-W]

True. But if M/P weren’t competing for the spot (by choice) and C/H had barely been training/tension/army commitments and P/F were coming back from injury and a year off, S/N winning the spot “by a lot” makes a lot more sense. Obviously this is all speculation. Or everyone was a complete disaster which is also possible because US pairs.

That's always been my theory about the results of the Champs Camp simulated, private comp that determined the OQE entry. We know ChanHowe had only been training again about 5 weeks and PlaFern maybe about 9 weeks during Champs Camp. McBark had competed in the SP at Glacier Falls the week before Champs Camp but WD from the FS - and their SP score wasn't that great, so they may have been dealing with a minor injury or something. ShiNagy were likely the most prepared team at that point on early August, but a month later... Well, we saw the scores from John Nicks IPC & Kinoshita Group Cup.

 

[Sarah]

I feel like we’re all having 2 conversations here. 1. We should have sent someone who could have gotten that 3rd spot and 2. Did anyone actually do enough to justify sending them in the second spot? So, the 3rd spot doesn’t matter really because no one has skated well enough this season (or last night!) to justify 3 pairs going to the Olympics anyway. They’re just lucky 2 get to go.

 

[peibeck]

I feel like we’re all having 2 conversations here. 1. We should have sent someone who could have gotten that 3rd spot and 2. Did anyone actually do enough to justify sending them in the second spot? So, the 3rd spot doesn’t matter really because no one has skated well enough this season (or last night!) to justify 3 pairs going to the Olympics anyway. They’re just lucky 2 get to go.

Unlike the women, the pairs last night showed little mettle and determination in showing we deserved a 3rd slot, let alone proving they deserved either of the two slots we do have.

 

[SidelineSkater]

It’s almost reversed. Usually women’s is more unclear with several more contenders. Pairs is the one with 1-2 top teams and 1-2 potential spoilers. Passport issues aside, they might as well draw names out of a hat.

 

[ChillSkate]

I think it’s pretty clear that they’ll select K/O and C/H for the Olympics. What would make them do otherwise?

I think the concern is the favoritism USFS has shown towards Shin & Nagy. Even at NBC, Tara and Johnny were pounding the table for them at the end of yesterday's broadcast because they are "the future."

The concern is that they will select Shin & Nagy for the Olympics AND for Worlds and screw over McPark again for the World's assignment.

 

[ChillSkate]

That's always been my theory about the results of the Champs Camp simulated, private comp that determined the OQE entry. We know ChanHowe had only been training again about 5 weeks and PlaFern maybe about 9 weeks during Champs Camp. McBark had competed in the SP at Glacier Falls the week before Champs Camp but WD from the FS - and their SP score wasn't that great, so they may have been dealing with a minor injury or something. ShiNagy were likely the most prepared team at that point on early August, but a month later... Well, we saw the scores from John Nicks IPC & Kinoshita Group Cup.

I would really love if Emily Chan wrote a tell-all book so we could know what really happened with her and Spencer, Champs Camp, the OQE, and whatever drama tomorrow will bring.

 

[Theatregirl1122]

I think the concern is the favoritism USFS has shown towards Shin & Nagy. Even at NBC, Tara and Johnny were pounding the table for them at the end of yesterday's broadcast because they are "the future."

The concern is that they will select Shin & Nagy for the Olympics AND for Worlds and screw over McPark again for the World's assignment.

There’s no factual basis for that concern. Nothing in the criteria includes “the future.” Tara and Johnny aren’t mouthpieces for USFSA. And if USFSA was committed to them being on the team, they could have gotten higher scores.

 

[her grace]

I don’t get the “the future” argument. Say a team gets chosen for this reason. How much do they have to do to prove themselves in the next quad to maintain their spot? Be a world beater like Knierim/Frazier? Be like E/M and K/O and finish top 6 or 7 at worlds? Because if they become only an okayish veteran team, shouldn’t they get left off in favor of the next “the future” team? And if that’s a pretty likely outcome, then what was the point?

 

[ChillSkate]

There’s no factual basis for that concern. Nothing in the criteria includes “the future.” Tara and Johnny aren’t mouthpieces for USFSA. And if USFSA was committed to them being on the team, they could have gotten higher scores.

The factual basis for the concern is the 2025 Four Continents and OQE assignments.

 

[SidelineSkater]

They certainly didn’t look to ‘the future’ with Ilia in 2022 Olympic selection. He’s talked openly about how it motivated him to prive them wrong.

We really need help from France to knock out Canada in the Team event for us to squeeze out an extra pairs point.

 

[Allskate]

If they think there’s a shot for Alisa in the next week, I think they’ll select K/O and TBA with the intention that it’s C/H if E/M don’t get citizenship, which I can’t imagine they will.

My understanding is that the Olympic rules say that the skater has to have the passport before the selection committee meets. (That's what Sarah said on the Runthrough the other day.)

I think they'll clearly go with K&O for both the Olympics and Worlds and E&M for Worlds. Then, my guess is that C&H will get the second spot for the Olympics and perhaps McBeath will get the third spot for Worlds. The future prospects of Shin and Nagy are not relevant under the rules. It stinks that they screwed up that lift and have made other mistakes during the season. But, if their future really is as bright as Johnny thinks, then they will learn from those mistakes.

 

[kwanfan1818]

They certainly didn’t look to ‘the future’ with Ilia in 2022 Olympic selection. He’s talked openly about how it motivated him to prive them wrong.

It’s possible that they regretted that decision, regardless if the results, and pivoted.

 

[Karen-W]

It’s possible that they regretted that decision, regardless if the results, and pivoted.

Well, the big difference between Malinin 2022 and ShiNagy 2026 is that he skated LIGHTS OUT in Nashville and won the silver medal, beating two of that season's Men's GPF qualifiers in Zhou and Brown. ShiNagy couldn't manage to even get on the podium yesterday let alone beat a couple of teams whose best results are 4th at GPdF and 3rd at Trialeti Trophy this season. Whatever promise for the future they may have, they didn't do much to demonstrate it in St Louis this week.

 

[Willin]

was told by two people yesterday that Chan/Howe didn't get the Olympic trial event last summer because they had hardly been practicing. Varying accounts of why (him doing his enlistment duties/her unhappy with him enlisting/ongoing tensions between them), but it wasn't that the USFS just preferred Shin/Nagy over them.

That's always been my theory about the results of the Champs Camp simulated, private comp that determined the OQE entry. We know ChanHowe had only been training again about 5 weeks and PlaFern maybe about 9 weeks during Champs Camp. McBark had competed in the SP at Glacier Falls the week before Champs Camp but WD from the FS - and their SP score wasn't that great, so they may have been dealing with a minor injury or something. ShiNagy were likely the most prepared team at that point on early August, but a month later... Well, we saw the scores from John Nicks IPC & Kinoshita Group Cup.

Meagan Duhamel was a guest at the Runthrough liveshow and apparently confirmed that there was a skateoff and S/N blew the rest of the field out of the water at that time.

I would imagine that if C/H weren't skating much it would explain that.

But I also feel like C/H got a lot of benefit of the doubt that S/N didn't have at Nationals this year. C/H were just as messy and got some very generous calling on at least one lift. S/N got called harsher than people internationally.

I don’t get the “the future” argument. Say a team gets chosen for this reason. How much do they have to do to prove themselves in the next quad to maintain their spot? Be a world beater like Knierim/Frazier? Be like E/M and K/O and finish top 6 or 7 at worlds? Because if they become only an okayish veteran team, shouldn’t they get left off in favor of the next “the future” team? And if that’s a pretty likely outcome, then what was the point?

The argument is that when you've been on that stage before you'll do better.

They only really seem to pull it when there's a very promising team/skater and a very underwhelming field of older teams/skaters - which is the case here. Kind of a "we have nothing to lose, so why not give someone experience that could use that experience next Olympics?" And sure that's failed - like with Polina in 2014. But I don't think it's necessarily bad.

 

[her grace]

The argument is that when you've been on that stage before you'll do better.

They only really seem to pull it when there's a very promising team/skater and a very underwhelming field of older teams/skaters - which is the case here. Kind of a "we have nothing to lose, so why not give someone experience that could use that experience next Olympics?" And sure that's failed - like with Polina in 2014. But I don't think it's necessarily bad.

But with Edmunds, it was more of a “she’s the present” argument having finished 2nd at Nationals and having made the JGPF against the prodigious Russians that season. It wasn’t like she finished 5th at nationals.

 

[Willin]

@her grace Which is true, but there are other cases. In this case, it's 3rd by less than a point in the competition within a competition of those who are eligible.

I have seen it said here and elsewhere (and implied over the last few seasons on TV commentary) that there's more going on to Chan/Howe than meets the eye that may make USFS more skeptical about sending them. Personally I think that based on scoring alone here that C/H will be the ones to go, but I also think it's a situation where we'll never know the full story.

 

[Karen-W]

They only really seem to pull it when there's a very promising team/skater and a very underwhelming field of older teams/skaters - which is the case here. Kind of a "we have nothing to lose, so why not give someone experience that could use that experience next Olympics?" And sure that's failed - like with Polina in 2014. But I don't think it's necessarily bad.

Hahahaha. No, it is NOT the case here. Polina actually BEAT the older, underwhelming senior women in 2014.

Promising as ShiNagy may be, this is the second consecutive Nationals where they've failed to get on the podium and still haven't beat any of the four "underwhelming" teams ahead of them.

Going back to last season when ShiNagy made their international debut, here's what's happened in their head-to-head match-ups with the rest of the US teams:

2024 Golden Spin -
2nd - ChanHowe 177.70
3rd - ShiNagy 170.21

2025 US Nats -
1st - EfiMit 211.90
2nd - McBark 190.57
3rd - KamO 189.57
4th - ChanHowe 183.95
5th - ShiNagy 182.67

2025 John Nicks IPC -
2nd - EfiMit 199.43
3rd - McBark 187.89
4th - ChanHowe 183.22
6th - LiuBed 168.27
7th - ShiNagy 165.76

2025 Grand Prix de France -
4th - McBark 178.08
5th - ShiNagy 173.30

2025 IceChallenge Graz -
1st - LiuBed 181.60
2nd - ShiNagy 179.25
7th - MossGal 141.26

2025 Golden Spin -
1st - ShiNagy 194.00
2nd - PlaFern 183.17
7th - LiuBed 163.88

2026 US Nats -
1st - EfiMit 207.71
2nd - KamO 197.12
3rd - McBark 187.45
4th - ChanHowe 186.52
5th - ShiNagy 185.10

They actually lost to ChanHowe by LESS last year than they did this year - 1.28 vs 1.42 - but they have yet to beat ChanHowe in any head-to-head matchup let alone EfiMit, KamO or McBark. I'd expect that such a promising team would have managed to beat at least one of those four "underwhelming" teams at least once in the past season but the only time they've even managed to make it a close call has been Nats both this year and last.