2021 Grand Prix Final Women Predictions

[haribobo]

With the news of Trusova's WD from NHK, it's time for a poll! I will say for now that Shcherbakova, Tuktamysheva, and Valieva seem very likely so I will do this poll for the final 3 spots

 

[Sylvia]

GP women's grid as of Nov. 5: https://www.isu.org/docman-document...-files-40/entries-6/25937-entries-ladies/file

Japan hasn't named a replacement for Kihira -- Mana Kawabe perhaps?

GP Women's current standings: https://results.isu.org/events/gp2021/gpswomen.htm

 

[miffy]

I think Daria will finish 4th in the standings then a tie for 5th & 6th between Maiia, Alena & Young You with a silver and bronze taking it down to scores. I’ve gone for Maiia, and Alena for the last place but it may be wishful thinking going for Alena!

 

[Vash01]

First I picked Khromykh, Usacheva and You. However, Alysa Liu has a great opportunity at her next GP because the field is not as strong as her first GP. So she could actually replace Usacheva, who does not have a quad or a 3A.

 

[Karen-W]

First I picked Khromykh, Usacheva and You. However, Alysa Liu has a great opportunity at her next GP because the field is not as strong as her first GP. So she could actually replace Usacheva, who does not have a quad or a 3A.

It is about points earned over both events. Alysa's 5th place ar SCI only gives her 7 points. Even with a win at NHK, she would only have 22 points. I suppose it is possible for her to qualify with 22 points but the results would have to be something like Sakamoto 2nd (SkAm 4th = 9, NHK 2nd = 13, total = 22), You 3rd (two 3rds = 22), Usacheva 4th (SkAm 2nd = 13, NHK 4th = 9, total = 22). In that scenario, the first tie breaker is highest placement, then total score. I won't say it is impossible, but I'm not holding my breath and I think she will wind up as an alternate at best.

 

[Vash01]

It is about points earned over both events. Alysa's 5th place ar SCI only gives her 7 points. Even with a win at NHK, she would only have 22 points. I suppose it is possible for her to qualify with 22 points but the results would have to be something like Sakamoto 2nd (SkAm 4th = 9, NHK 2nd = 13, total = 22), You 3rd (two 3rds = 22), Usacheva 4th (SkAm 2nd = 13, NHK 4th = 9, total = 22). In that scenario, the first tie breaker is highest placement, then total score. I won't say it is impossible, but I'm not holding my breath and I think she will wind up as an alternate at best.

If Alysa wins the gold, it will give her the higher placing, right?

 

[Karen-W]

If Alysa wins the gold, it will give her the higher placing, right?

Yes. The scenario I outlined above is, I think, about the only way she could outright qualify - that is also assuming that Kostornaia wins silver at IdF and Khromykh wins bronze at Rostelecom. I'm sure that some other scenarios exist should someone like Hendrickx sneak in for another bronze at Rostelecom ahead of Khromykh or Lee winning silver at IdF ahead of Kostornaia.

 

[PeterG]

I searched for "Ksenia Sinitsina" at wikipedia, but there's no page for her there.

 

[Sylvia]

I searched for "Ksenia Sinitsina" at wikipedia, but there's no page for her there.

Kseniia Sinitsyna - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

 

[PeterG]

Kseniia Sinitsyna - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

You must have speled it wrong.

 

[Sylvia]

Standings after NHK Trophy: https://results.isu.org/events/gp2021/gpswomen.htm

Kaori SAKAMOTO JPN 9 + 15 (223.34) = 24 (439.27 total)

Kamila VALIEVA RUS 15 (265.08) - Rostelecom Cup
Anna SHCHERBAKOVA RUS 15 (236.78) - IdF

Elizaveta TUKTAMYSHEVA RUS 13 (232.88) - RC
Maiia KHROMYKH RUS 13 (226.35) - RC

Loena HENDRICKX BEL 11 (219.05) - RC
Alena KOSTORNAIA RUS 11 (214.54) - IdF

-----
Young YOU KOR 11 + 11 = 22 (420.57)
Mai MIHARA JPN 9 + 9 = 18 (424.96)
Alysa LIU USA 7 + 9 = 16 (409.43)
Mana KAWABE JPN 0 + 13 = 13 (391.96)

Only competed in 1 GP:
Alexandra TRUSOVA RUS 15 (232.37)
Daria USACHEVA RUS 13 (217.31)

Copying over relevant posts from the NHK Women's FS pbp thread:

GPF talk:
So, considering Trusova and Usacheva are out, Kaori is most likely in. Unless:
-Loena wins at Rostelecom (unlikely since Kamila, Liza, and Maiia are there)
-Mariah pulls something amazing at both France and Russia (also unlikely, see previous bullet point)

You is most likely out, unless:
-Kostornaia is somehow third in France and scores less than 216 points overall. The score is debatable, but I doubt she'll be third.
-A current GPF contender withdraws (please don't, I don't want more injuries).

Kostornaia with a second or higher next week is most probably in as the final skater with four other Russians and Sakamoto. If she's third, she may still beat You on a tiebreak. If Hendrickx can get second or higher against the trio of Russians, she will be in, but I don't think it's likely. If she's third over one of the group, then she's on a tiebreak with You either as first alternate or in a three-way tie with Kostornaia as well with two bronzes. There's Bell too, but... Russia.

 

[On My Own]

Can we redo the poll due to the injuries/withdrawals we didn't know about when it was posted?

ETA: Oh, nvm, we can change our vote!!