2026 Milano-Cortina Olympics - Figure Skating Qualification

[farahfan]

Currently, my projections based on SB lists from each discipline have China needing to qualify in both Pairs and Dance as none of the teams who have competed this season have the Worlds CTES mins. It's looking pretty good for them to qualify a man to the FS (if they send Dai), and An should also just squeak into the FS for women (she's the only Chinese woman with CTES mins). I think it's highly likely that Zhang/Huang will earn one of the Pairs spots at the OQE - they are that good. Dance is less likely, but we also haven't seen Li/Rodin compete internationally yet & apparently they show a lot of promise (he is waiting for his release).

Korea won't have a problem qualifying in ice dance - Lim/Quan have an RD SB score that puts them around 15th right now.

Japan won't qualify to send a 3rd team in pairs to the OQE - Nagaoka/Moriguchi should make the FS in Boston & as long as they do that, Japan will automatically qualify 2 spots, but they won't earn a 3rd - and even if they did, there is no way Shimizu/Honda are nabbing one of the 3 Oly Pairs spots up for grabs at the OQE. In Dance, it's going to be super-close for Japan to qualify one spot at the OQE - Yoshida/Morita are right there in the mix with a bunch of other teams and this location may very well help them, I agree.

What's your projection for the Italians now that Beccari/Guarise are out?

 

[Karen-W]

What's your projection for the Italians now that Beccari/Guarise are out?

Same as before - ConMac & either BecGuar or GhiAmbr are going to maybe finish with a combined placement good enough to earn the right to send a team to try for a 3rd spot at the OQE. If they manage that, then BecGuar will be the team sent to Beijing to compete in the OQE and if they're healthy & in decent September shape, they should easily get one of the 3 spots up for grabs at the OQE.

 

[kwanfan1818]

Qualifying for the FS or FD doesn’t make it automatic to earn a spot outright, though, because the countries that earn more than one spot get precedence, as long as they make the free. Based on last year’s Worlds with the Olympic formula, they be solidly 15th, but I’d expect Smart Dieck to be above them, and there’s a good chance that Bekker/Fernandez will make the FD this time, which would guarantee two for GBR. (I wouldn’t expect LTU 2 or ITA 2 to earn the spot outright.). That’s cutting it close, but they might be safe, especially if there are disasters.

Same with Women: just making the FS doesn’t guarantee one of 23 spots. Last year’s Wolds results would have left Pelkonen (24) off, so every spot counts, although I think this year’s results will be a lot different.

ETA: There are 20 spots in the FS for Pairs, if only 16 spots in the FS for the Olympics. For countries that earn more than one outright, they need their second or third Pair to be Top 20 in Boston.

 

[Karen-W]

Qualifying for the FS or FD doesn’t make it automatic to earn a spot outright, though, because the countries that earn more than one spot get precedence, as long as they make the free. Based on last year’s Worlds with the Olympic formula, they be solidly 15th, but I’d expect Smart Dieck to be above them, and there’s a good chance that Bekker/Fernandez will make the FD this time, which would guarantee two for GBR. (I wouldn’t expect LTU 2 or ITA 2 to earn the spot outright.). That’s cutting it close, but they might be safe, especially if there are disasters.

Same with Women: just making the FS doesn’t guarantee one of 23 spots. Last year’s Wolds results would have left Pelkonen (24) off, so every spot counts, although I think this year’s results will be a lot different.

ETA: There are 20 spots in the FS for Pairs, if only 16 spots in the FS for the Olympics. For countries that earn more than one outright, they need their second or third Pair to be Top 20 in Boston.

That's not how it works quite for the Olympics. The country only auto-qualifies as many add'l spots as the # of skaters/teams who make the FS/FD. So, SmaDie will only auto-qualify one spit for the Olympics and they will earn the right to send 1 team to the OQE to try and qualify a 2nd spot in ice dance.

We've been over this multiple times since 2021 when Vincent failed to make the FS in Stockholm, which meant the USA had to send a man to the 2022 OQE (Nebelhorn) to "confirm" the 3rd spot. And because we only had 2 women competing in Stockholm, we had to send Liu to also "confirm" the 3rd spot.

ETA - I'm 99% positive that any man or woman who makes the FS in Boston will, indeed earn their country's Olympic spot. Ice dance MAY be a little dicier and the 20th place team probably won't earn an automatic Oly spot. Pairs... definitely not every team that makes the FS will earn auto Oly spots, but Japan will get their 2 spots automatically as long as NagaMori make the FS (even if they finish 20th overall).

 

[kwanfan1818]

That's not how it works quite for the Olympics. The country only auto-qualifies as many add'l spots as the # of skaters/teams who make the FS/FD. So, SmaDie will only auto-qualify one spit for the Olympics and they will earn the right to send 1 team to the OQE to try and qualify a 2nd spot in ice dance.

As I posted,

Qualifying for the FS or FD doesn’t make it automatic to earn a spot outright, though, because the countries that earn more than one spot get precedence, as long as they make the free.

It wouldn’t matter if Lim/Quan place higher than Orihara/Pirinen or Demougoet/LeMercier, as long as FRA and FIN combined earn two spots (14-28) and O/P and D/LeM make the FD.

I never said that Smart/Dieck could earn two spots outright for Spain, only that I’d expect them to place above Lim/Quan: If they place in Top 10, they’d get precedence over all singles, and if they do not make the Top 10 but place over L/Q, they’d get a single over L/Q.

Those who make the free in singles might very well get one of the Top 23 spots. The last Women wouldn’t have last season, but, for example, Hendricks skated, and who knows what will happen by March. I haven’t looked a Men’s, because it is a new season. It’s just not a guarantee, like making the FS does for guaranteeing more than one spot.

 

[farahfan]

That's not how it works quite for the Olympics. The country only auto-qualifies as many add'l spots as the # of skaters/teams who make the FS/FD. So, SmaDie will only auto-qualify one spit for the Olympics and they will earn the right to send 1 team to the OQE to try and qualify a 2nd spot in ice dance.

We've been over this multiple times since 2021 when Vincent failed to make the FS in Stockholm, which meant the USA had to send a man to the 2022 OQE (Nebelhorn) to "confirm" the 3rd spot. And because we only had 2 women competing in Stockholm, we had to send Liu to also "confirm" the 3rd spot.

ETA - I'm 99% positive that any man or woman who makes the FS in Boston will, indeed earn their country's Olympic spot. Ice dance MAY be a little dicier and the 20th place team probably won't earn an automatic Oly spot. Pairs... definitely not every team that makes the FS will earn auto Oly spots, but Japan will get their 2 spots automatically as long as NagaMori make the FS (even if they finish 20th overall).

So bear with my ignorance, but I'm understanding it's possible that a pair team makes it to the top 16 at worlds but still does not get one of the 16 Olympic spots? Because where would a spot for NagaMori come from if they don't make it to the top 16 but are in the top 20?

 

[kwanfan1818]

No, if the member earns more than one spot for 2026 Worlds, for the Olympics, they’d get precedence and earn one spot outright for each skater/team that makes the free in Boston. Yes if they are the lone entry from a member: they could make the FS/Top 20 at Worlds and not get an Olympic entry. They’d have to try to earn one at the qualifier.

For all disciplines but Pairs, the number that makes the free at Worlds is the same as for the Olympics. For Pairs, it is 20 for Worlds, but 16 for the Olympics.

Based on last year’s Worlds, Japan can choose to send one, two, or three* Pairs to Boston, because Miura/Kihara were second as the lone entry from Japan.

If they just send M/K, and M/K come in first or second, then they earn three spots for 2026 Worlds, but one guaranteed spot for the Olympics and one entry to earn the second spot in Beijing.

Assuming that they won’t earn three if they send more than M/K, and M/K are Top 10 in Boston,

If they send two, and Pair 2 makes the Top 20 FS in Boston, then they earn two spots for 2026 Worlds and the Olympics.

If they sent two, and Pair 2 does not make the Top 20 FS in Boston, then they earn two spots for 2026 Worlds, one spot outright for the Olympics, and one entry into the qualifier.

*I don’t know if they have/will have a third age-eligible Pairs team with the World minimums.

 

[Karen-W]

So bear with my ignorance, but I'm understanding it's possible that a pair team makes it to the top 16 at worlds but still does not get one of the 16 Olympic spots? Because where would a spot for NagaMori come from if they don't make it to the top 16 but are in the top 20?

Yes to your first question. And the way the Olympic spots are awarded when it comes to multiple entries is a country only qualifies as many spots as they have skaters/teams that make the FS/FD in Boston. Because Pairs advances 20 to the FS from the SP but only 16 Olympic spots are awarded based on Worlds results, it's possible for Japan to qualify two spots with a 1st & 20th placement since the total of those placements would be 17 points (16th-20th = 16 pts) which is within the 14-28 points range that earns two spots.

*I don’t know if they have/will have a third age-eligible Pairs team with the World minimums.

Shimizu/Honda are age-eligible for seniors, but they don't have the Sr CTES mins for either 4CCs or Worlds and are focused on Jrs this season. They could, theoretically, compete at the OQE if Japan earned the right to compete for the 3rd spot, but I doubt they'd earn one of the spots available because there are several other teams that are appreciably better.

It wouldn’t matter if Lim/Quan place higher than Orihara/Pirinen or Demougoet/LeMercier, as long as FRA and FIN combined earn two spots (14-28) and O/P and D/LeM make the FD.

Correct. Same goes for them if they beat the Mrazeks or the #3 Canadian team. But, the math is in their favor as long as they finish 19th or higher.

I never said that Smart/Dieck could earn two spots outright for Spain, only that I’d expect them to place above Lim/Quan: If they place in Top 10, they’d get precedence over all singles, and if they do not make the Top 10 but place over L/Q, they’d get a single over L/Q.

Smart/Dieck are treated just like every other team with a single entry at Worlds. Spain won't get precedence for two spots over any other country, regardless of where Smart/Dieck place. All a Top 10 finish for SmaDie does is allow Spain to send a team to the OQE in September to try and earn one of the 4 spots that will be awarded there. The reason for this is because Spain only has ONE spot for this year's Worlds, so only ONE Spanish team will qualify for the FD. The requirement for the additional spots to be automatically awarded is that the 2nd (or 3rd) skater/team must have also made the FD/FS.

Presuming Lim/Quan finish around 15th like I'd project based on SBs (which are fairly predictive for ice dance, IMO), they will qualify an Olympic spot. Let's say the Worlds results look like this:

1) ChoBat
2) GuigFab
3) GilPoir
4) FearGib
5) LajLag
6) CarPon
7) SmaDie
8) TurkVer
9) LopBri
10) ReedAmbru
11) USA #3
12) DavSmo
13) Taschlers
14) Mrazeks
15) LimQuan
16) DemLeM
17) FabAyer
18) PiriHara
19) BekHern
20) JvRSteff

USA = 1+6 = 7 pts + 3rd team FD reached = 3 spots (1-3)
ITA = 2+18 = 20 pts + 2nd team FD NOT reached = 1 spot + 1 entry at OQE (4)
CAN = 3+5 = 8 pts + 3rd team FD reached = 3 spots (5-7)
GBR = 4+16 = 20 pts = 2 spots (8-9)
ESP = 7+0 = 7 pts = 1 spot + 1 entry at OQE (10)
FIN = 8+16 = 24 pts = 2 spots (11-12)
FRA = 9+16 = 25 pts = 2 spots (13-14)
LTU = 10+18 = 28 pts + 2nd team FD not reached = 1 spot + 1 entry at OQE (15)
GEO = 12+0 = 12 pts = 1 spot (16)
CZE = 13+14 = 27 pts = 2 spots (17-18)
KOR = 15+0 = 15 pts = 1 spot (19)
GER = 20 = 16 pts = 0 spots because KOR earned the 19th & last spot available at Worlds

Those who make the free in singles might very well get one of the Top 23 spots. The last Women wouldn’t have last season, but, for example, Hendricks skated, and who knows what will happen by March. I haven’t looked a Men’s, because it is a new season. It’s just not a guarantee, like making the FS does for guaranteeing more than one spot.

There are 24 spots available in Single at Worlds - there will be 5 spots up for grabs at the OQE. Making the FS should be enough, but it might be touch-and-go for the 24th place finisher depending on how the math works out, but for singles, I think that Hendrickx' status is the only major unknown at this point in the season.

 

[tony]

There are 24 spots available in Single at Worlds - there will be 5 spots up for grabs at the OQE. Making the FS should be enough, but it might be touch-and-go for the 24th place finisher depending on how the math works out, but for singles, I think that Hendrickx' status is the only major unknown at this point in the season.

What math would push the 24th place finisher out? No country can gain a spot outright at Worlds, they can either A) lose a spot for the next season or B) earn the right to get another spot via the qualifying event. For A), in the event that they have two spots in 2025 Worlds and then finish something like 13th and 16th. Down to one spot regardless. In the event of B), they finish 10th with one entry and then give the right to a different skater to compete in China for a second spot.

With that in mind, as I talked about in 2022, I'm certain that every qualifying country to the free skate (in mens and womens) will earn their country at least the one spot. It's different for dance where the number of FD entries does not match the number of Olympic spots up for grabs at Worlds.

 

[Karen-W]

What math would push the 24th place finisher out? No country can gain a spot outright at Worlds, they can either A) lose a spot for the next season or B) earn the right to get another spot via the qualifying event. For A), in the event that they have two spots in 2025 Worlds and then finish something like 13th and 16th. Down to one spot regardless. In the event of B), they finish 10th with one entry and then give the right to a different skater to compete in China for a second spot.

With that in mind, as I talked about in 2022, I'm certain that every qualifying country to the free skate (in mens and womens) will earn their country at least the one spot. It's different for dance where the number of FD entries does not match the number of Olympic spots up for grabs at Worlds.

Right. I haven't played around with the math, but I think you're correct that with 24 Oly spots available and 24 skaters making the FS in singles, there isn't any way anyone who makes the FS doesn't qualify.

Dance and Pairs - just making the FD/FS is not a guarantee. Placements still matter, lol.

 

[kwanfan1818]

Smart/Dieck are treated just like every other team with a single entry at Worlds. Spain won't get precedence for two spots over any other country, regardless of where Smart/Dieck place. All a Top 10 finish for SmaDie does is allow Spain to send a team to the OQE in September to try and earn one of the 4 spots that will be awarded there. The reason for this is because Spain only has ONE spot for this year's Worlds, so only ONE Spanish team will qualify for the FD. The requirement for the additional spots to be automatically awarded is that the 2nd (or 3rd) skater/team must have also made the FD/FS.

According to the Olympic qualifying document, if Smark/Dieck make Top 10 as a single entry, they would earn one guaranteed spot (and one entry to the qualifier) before any single entries who make the FD are assigned spots.

From D.1, for those who qualify 1:

"Next highest ranked athletes from the NOCs not qualified with three (3) or two (20) places, until the quotas of qualification through the ISU World Figure Skating Championships 2025 are reached."

The second line of 2 spots in the chart is where 1 athlete places 3-10.

I think there is an excellent chance Smart/Dieck will place 3-10 in Boston. I think there is very little chance that Lim/Quan will.

I was wrong about the number of spots earned in Boston: I thought they were reducing the number of Boston spots by 1 for all disciplines, and keeping a full flight to be earned at the qualifier, which is only true of Pairs and Dance (15/19). So making the FS as a single would guarantee an Olympic spot, unless a really unlikely combination of placements happened. (It's mathematically possible for at least 11 members to earn 22 "guaranteed" spots in any discipline with placements in the Top 20 competitors, and for only 2/4 of the one-skater entries to get the last two.)

 

[Karen-W]

According to the Olympic qualifying document, if Smark/Dieck make Top 10 as a single entry, they would earn one guaranteed spot (and one entry to the qualifier) before any single entries who make the FD are assigned spots.

From D.1, for those who qualify 1:

"Next highest ranked athletes from the NOCs not qualified with three (3) or two (20) places, until the quotas of qualification through the ISU World Figure Skating Championships 2025 are reached."

The second line of 2 spots in the chart is where 1 athlete places 3-10.

You are ignoring the paragraphs below the table.

"NOCs, who through their ISU Members Nation, have obtained the necessary points according to Rule 378, paragraph 2b) and c) will have the right for two (2) or three (3) entries, only if, in addition, they had two (2) or respectively three (3) Skaters/Pairs/Couples qualified for the Free Skating/Free Dance in the ISU World Figure Skating Championships 2025 (ISU Rule 400, paragraph 3)."

Smart/Dieck will ONLY be able to earn Spain one spot because Spain only has ONE entry for Worlds 2025. They cannot earn a 2nd spot outright, even if they place 3rd-10th at Worlds. All they can do is earn the right send a team to the OQE to try for a 2nd spot.

From D.2. -

"The remaining quota places will be allocated to the NOCs at the ISU Figure Skating Qualifying Competition... Only the following NOCs may be allocated a quota place:

*NOCs which have not obtained any quota places in the respective discipline in D.1;

*NOCs which have obtained the necessary points for two (2) or three (3) entries but did not have two (2) or respectively three (3) Skaters qualified for the Free Skating/Free Dance at the ISU World Figure Skating Championships 2025. This quota place will be in addition to the quota place(s) that the NOC had obtained in D.1. These ISU members are entitled to enter one (1) Skater in the qualifying event who had not qualified for the Free Skating/Free Dance at the ISU World Figure Skating Championships 2025."

I think there is an excellent chance Smart/Dieck will place 3-10 in Boston. I think there is very little chance that Lim/Quan will.

I'm not arguing that Lim/Quan will place in the Top 10 at Worlds. As long as they make the FD and finish around 15-16, they're going to earn an Olympic spot. You seem convinced they will not, which is, in my view, incorrect.

Sure, if they have a disaster skate in the RD and fail to make the FD, they won't earn an Oly spot in Boston. And, sure, if they have a disaster skate in the FD and wind up 20th, they probably won't earn an Oly spot in Boston. But their total score SB is 7+ points higher than JvRSteff (in my projections, probably the 20th/last team to qualify for the FD), so they probably have a bit of a buffer even with one major mistake in the FD. Lim/Quan not earning an Oly spot in Boston is far-fetched, though this season has been filled with weird stuff and we saw BraSom fail to make the FD last season, so of course that possibility can't be ruled out, but it should be handicapped appropriately.

I was wrong about the number of spots earned in Boston: I thought they were reducing the number of Boston spots by 1 for all disciplines, and keeping a full flight to be earned at the qualifier, which is only true of Pairs and Dance (15/19). So making the FS as a single would guarantee an Olympic spot, unless a really unlikely combination of placements happened.

Again, you are incorrect. There will be 16 Pairs spots awarded in Boston - which is the same # that were awarded in Stockholm. There are only 3 Pairs spots that will be awarded at the OQE in September. The D.1. section you referenced above shows, in the far left column, the number of spots that will be awarded at 2025 Worlds.

(It's mathematically possible for at least 11 members to earn 22 "guaranteed" spots in any discipline with placements in the Top 20 competitors, and for only 2/4 of the one-skater entries to get the last two.)

Please, show your math for this.

@tony is correct, I believe, that every single Men's or Women's skater who makes the FS will earn an Oly spot. In part, this is affected by the number of multiple entries each country has for Boston.

Women -
JPN - 1+12+20 = 13 points + FS reached = 3 spots (1-3)
USA - 2+11+19 = 13 points + FS reached = 3 spots (4-6)
KOR - 3+10+18 = 13 points + FS reached = 3 spots (7-9)
BEL - 4+9+0 = 13 points + No 3rd entry = 2 spots + 1 OQE entry (10-11)
SUI - 5+8+0 = 13 points + No 3rd entry = 2 spots + 1 OQE entry (12-13)

ITA - 6+0 = 6 points + No 2nd entry = 1 spot + 1 OQE entry (14)
GEO - 7+0 = 7 points + No 2nd entry = 1 spot + 1 OQE entry (15)

CAN - 13+0 = 13 points = 1 spot (16)
FRA - 14+0 = 14 points = 1 spot (17)
FIN - 15+0 = 15 points = 1 spot (18)
AUT - 16+0 = 16 points = 1 spot (19)
EST - 17+0 = 16 points = 1 spot (20)
ROU - 21+0 = 16 points = 1 spot (21)
CHN - 22+0 = 16 points = 1 spot (22)
POL - 23+0 = 16 points = 1 spot (23)
ISR - 24+0 = 16 points = 1 spot (24)

Men -
USA - 1+12+20 = 13 points + FS reached = 3 spots (1-3)
JPN - 2+11+19 = 13 points + FS reached = 3 spots (4-6)
FRA - 3+10+0 = 13 points + No 3rd entry = 2 spots + 1 OQE entry (7-8)
ITA - 4+9+0 = 13 points + No 3rd entry = 2 spots + 1 OQE entry (9-10)
LAT - 5+18+0 = 21 points = 2 spots (11-12)
KOR - 6+7+0 = 13 points = 2 spots + 1 OQE entry (13-14)
SUI - 8+17+0 = 24 points = 2 spots (15-16)

EST - 13+0 = 13 points = 1 spot (17)
GEO - 14+0 = 14 points = 1 spot (18)
KAZ - 15+0 = 15 points = 1 spot (19)
CHN - 16+0 = 16 points = 1 spot (20)
POL - 21+0 = 16 points = 1 spot (21)
SWE - 22+0 = 16 points = 1 spot (22)
CZE - 23+0 = 16 points = 1 spot (23)
SVK - 24+0 = 16 points = 1 spot (24)

 

[kwanfan1818]

Double-posting, so this doesn't get lost:

I prematurely split the baby in the math

Because qualifying for Worlds means that members can earn more spots than entries, there are multiple, if not always easy, ways for 10 (P/D) or 12 (singles) members to qualify two skaters/teams each.

For Pairs and Dance, with 20 spots in the free, at minimum, 10 members could send two teams each, all of whom would need to make the free skate, and they'd need to place in a limited amount of orders to gain 20 spots. The easiest example is, given that any team that makes the free gets 16 points at most, 1/20 (16), 2/19 (16), 3/18 (16), 4/17 (16), 5/16, 6/15, 7/14, 8/13, 9/12, 10/11. Since the limit is 28, these could be shuffled around in different ways, but the max number of teams is 20.

Factoring in 3's, where there could be a maximum of six combinations of points that qualify three from Worlds (1,2,3/10,4/9, 5/8, 6/7), there's a possibility of 21, because 11+16-20 (16), 12+16-20 (16) plus 13+14 or 15. That is more than the number of total spots for Pairs, although Dance could remove them from the qualifying event pool.

For Singles, with 24 spots in the free, at minimum that 12 members could earn with two skaters each in the FS, or 24, not 22, because 1-5+16-24 (16 points), 6/15, 7/16, 8/17, 9/18, 10/19 (16), 11/20 (16), 12/13 or 14.

 

[tony]

Still doesn't matter when it comes to singles skaters. A free skate placement means the country has, at minimum, their one ticket.

Doesn't matter about any multiples that happen from 1st to 23rd place. Think about it. The only way a country is keeping those multiple spots is if all of those skaters finish in the top 24 (and within the rules of the 13 or less or 28 or less) anyways. If a country qualifies 3 skaters based on the top two resulting 13 or less, but the third skater doesn't make the free skate, they have to go to China to earn that third spot, just as Vincent Zhou did in 2022.

That said, there is no possible result that is going to add additional quotas outright to the 24 initial qualifying spots at Worlds. They can only be lost, such as China had happen in 2021 with the men. That meant 23 spots were earned at Worlds, and 7 were available at Nebelhorn instead of the standard 6.

 

[kwanfan1818]

You are ignoring the paragraphs below the table.

"NOCs, who through their ISU Members Nation, have obtained the necessary points according to Rule 378, paragraph 2b) and c) will have the right for two (2) or three (3) entries, only if, in addition, they had two (2) or respectively three (3) Skaters/Pairs/Couples qualified for the Free Skating/Free Dance in the ISU World Figure Skating Championships 2025 (ISU Rule 400, paragraph 3)."

Smart/Dieck will ONLY be able to earn Spain one spot because Spain only has ONE entry for Worlds 2025. They cannot earn a 2nd spot outright, even if they place 3rd-10th at Worlds. All they can do is earn the right send a team to the OQE to try for a 2nd spot.

I disagree: there's a difference between the total number of Qualification places in the table -- ie, 2 for members who have one skater who places in the Top 10 -- which have precedence over the nations who have not earned more than one for 2026 Worlds, and the number of guaranteed vs. potential places that could be earned. The paragraph you cite means that if Smart/Dieck are Top 10, only they get a guaranteed spot, and another team can try to qualify for the second spot.

 

[kwanfan1818]

Still doesn't matter when it comes to singles skaters. A free skate placement means the country has, at minimum, their one ticket.

Doh, if 24 skaters are in the FS, it doesn't matter if they are singles or multiples.

 

[Karen-W]

I disagree: there's a difference between the total number of Qualification places in the table -- ie, 2 for members who have one skater who places in the Top 10 -- which have precedence over the nations who have not earned more than one for 2026 Worlds, and the number of guaranteed vs. potential places that could be earned. The paragraph you cite means that if Smart/Dieck are Top 10, only they get a guaranteed spot, and another team can try to qualify for the second spot.

So, you do realize that we have 2021 as a practical example of HOW this process worked, right?

The table you are referencing only applies to countries that have multiple entries at 2025 Worlds. ISU Members with only one entry at 2025 Worlds can earn AT MOST one Olympic spot plus the right to send an entry to the OQE to try for a second spot.

The ONLY time that order of placement becomes a factor is when the 19th spot is awarded. Multiple spots are awarded first, yes, but multiple spots are ONLY awarded to ISU Members that have 2 or 3 teams in the FD. Spain ekes out ahead of Korea by two spots, despite Smart/Dieck potentially finishing as many as 16 places higher than Lim/Quan (or in this scenario, 8 places ahead).

1) ChoBat
2) GuigFab
3) GilPoir
4) FearGib
5) LajLag
6) CarPon
7) SmaDie
8) TurkVer
9) LopBri
10) ReedAmbru
11) USA #3
12) DavSmo
13) Taschlers
14) Mrazeks
15) LimQuan
16) DemLeM
17) FabAyer
18) PiriHara
19) BekHern
20) JvRSteff

USA = 1+6 = 7 pts + 3rd team FD reached = 3 spots (1-3)
CAN = 3+5 = 8 pts + 3rd team FD reached = 3 spots (4-6)
ITA = 2+18 = 2+16 pts + 2nd team FD NOT reached = 1 spot + 1 entry at OQE (7)
GBR = 4+19 = 4+16 pts = 2 spots (8-9)
FIN = 8+16 = 24 pts = 2 spots (10-11)
FRA = 9+18 = 9+16 pts = 2 spots (12-13)
CZE = 13+14 = 27 pts = 2 spots (14-15)
LTU = 10+18 = 28 pts + 2nd team FD not reached = 1 spot + 1 entry at OQE (16)
ESP = 7+0 = 7 pts = 1 spot + 1 entry at OQE (17)
GEO = 12+0 = 12 pts = 1 spot (18)
KOR = 15+0 = 15 pts = 1 spot (19)
GER = 20 = 16 pts = 0 spots because KOR earned the 19th & last spot available at Worlds

ETA - theoretically, it is POSSIBLE that Lim/Quan and KOR will not earn an automatic spot, but that would require the second teams from both ITA & LTU qualifying for the FD, which is an even more remotely unlikely possibility than Lim/Quan finishing 20th in the FD.

 

[Theatregirl1122]

I disagree: there's a difference between the total number of Qualification places in the table -- ie, 2 for members who have one skater who places in the Top 10 -- which have precedence over the nations who have not earned more than one for 2026 Worlds, and the number of guaranteed vs. potential places that could be earned. The paragraph you cite means that if Smart/Dieck are Top 10, only they get a guaranteed spot, and another team can try to qualify for the second spot.

I don’t understand what you are disagreeing about? You agree that they can only earn one spot outright, and that another team could be sent to the qualifier. Them sending another team to the qualifier doesn’t affect the number of spots available to be earned in the FS, so multiples coming “before” or “after” single spot qualifiers here is irrelevant since a second spot hasn’t been qualified.

 

[Marta24]

https://isu-d8g8b4b7ece7aphs.a03.azurefd.net/isudamcontainer/CMS/isucommunications/pdf/AINCommunication2680039609800_17346849641740.pdf

Russian and Belarusian skaters are allowed to qualify Olympic spots through the Olympic Qualifying Competition in China. They can qualify one spot for each discipline, but can't qualify for the team event.

 

[Karen-W]

https://isu-d8g8b4b7ece7aphs.a03.azurefd.net/isudamcontainer/CMS/isucommunications/pdf/AINCommunication2680039609800_17346849641740.pdf

Russian and Belarusian skaters are allowed to qualify Olympic spots through the Olympic Qualifying Competition in China. They can qualify one spot for each discipline, but can't qualify for the team event.

Reading over the doc now...

There's a Q&A doc also -

https://isudam.blob.core.windows.net/isudamcontainer/AIN_Q&A_Final_20_12_2024_1734686416256.pdf

 

[Karen-W]

From the Q&A -

Will AINs be able to participate in ISU events other than Olympic Qualification events?
• No. In order to seek qualification for the OWG 2026, AIN will only be able to participate in the designated Figure Skating Qualification Competition, or the Qualification Competitions outlined in the Olympic Qualification System documents in Speed Skating and Short Track Speed Skating.

How does it work for substitutes?
• One Substitute per AIN is allowed in case of illness or injury prior to the start of the Olympic Qualification System (“OQS”) competitions. The Substitute may only participate in OQS events and cannot replace a Nominated Athlete injured after the conclusion of the OQS events.
• The Substitutes are subject to the same Focused Olympic Anti-Doping Program and special screening as are the Nominated Athletes. Only those that are declared eligible after having passed the Anti-Doping program and special screening may act as Substitutes.
• The AINs or, in case of injury, their Substitutes, are allowed to participate in the Figure Skating Olympic Qualifying Competition during the Season 2025/26 to compete for Quota Places and possible qualification for the OWG 2026. In case of injury of a Nominated Athlete before the set deadline, and in accordance with the general rules for substitution, their Substitute, if qualified, will fill the respective quota place for the OWG 2026.
• There is no substitution for AIN who did not fulfill the Eligibility Criteria or for AIN who, after fulfillment, were excluded from participation if they violate any of the Eligibility Criteria or other ISU Statutes or Rules.

What is the timing for the inclusion of AIN?
• By latest February 28 2025, the Figure Skating Federation of Russia, Russian Skating Union and Belarusian Skating Union/Belarusian National Olympic Committee will be able to nominate to the ISU one Athlete and one substitute (in case of injury prior to qualification) per individual event in Figure Skating/Speed Skating/Short Track Speed Skating, one pair for Pair Skating and one couple for Ice Dance who can participate as AINs.
• A special screening, conducted with the support of specialist external contractors, will ensure that the Nominated Athletes and Substitutes who will be accepted as AINs have neither publicly supported nor are publicly supporting the invasion of Ukraine and are not linked to Russian/Belarusian military or security agencies.
• Nominated Athletes and Substitutes will be subject to the Focused Olympic Anti-Doping Program with targeted testing, thorough investigations and close monitoring of their athlete biological passport and their whereabouts prior to the competition that will take months to implement.
• Only when athletes have passed these tests successfully will they be able to compete.

How will you make sure that the Nominated Athletes are neutral if they are nominated by the National Federations?
• A special screening, conducted with the support of specialist external contractors, will ensure that no athlete has publicly supporting the invasion of Ukraine or are linked to Russian/Belarusian military or security agencies.
• Anyone having any information regarding any specific athlete that they wish to report in the context of this screening will have the possibility to anonymously report it.
• Athletes will be ineligible on the basis of any pro-invasion actions, such as public statements, social media posts, participation in demonstrations, or displaying symbols like the "Z".

Soooooo, people better get to screenshotting any social media posts of any likely skaters/teams ASAP and make sure they have any support of the war documented to report. Also, any skaters who train at skating schools linked to the Russian military need to be documented.

Basically - Russia & Belarus can nominate ONE skater/team as their designated AIN and one additional skater/team as the substitute by Feb 25, 2025 - and they better vet them carefully because if they fail the external ISU vetting process, they cannot be replaced.

 

[Ananas Astra]

Sikharulidze and Kogan have just announced at Russian Nationals that Russia will be allowed to participate.

 

[Karen-W]

Sikharulidze and Kogan have just announced at Russian Nationals that Russia will be allowed to participate.

Really is a one-chance shot at securing an Olympic spot. Suddenly, I guess Russian Nats this year matters since the nominees for AIN & substitute must be named within the next 10 weeks.

 

[Ananas Astra]

Really is a one-chance shot at securing an Olympic spot. Suddenly, I guess Russian Nats this year matters since the nominees for AIN & substitute must be named within the next 10 weeks.

I'd be very surprised if Russia failed at securing Olympic spots in each discipline. Send Mishina/Galliamov, Petrosian, Kondratiuk and Stepanova/Bukin and the thing is settled.

 

[Kateri]

I'd be very surprised if Russia failed at securing Olympic spots in each discipline. Send Mishina/Galliamov, Petrosian, Kondratiuk and Stepanova/Bukin and the thing is settled.

Don't they have to only send people who haven't ever publically supported the war? I'm sure they can still field a strong group, but some of those definitely might not count.

 

[rfisher]

Don't they have to only send people who haven't ever publically supported the war? I'm sure they can still field a strong group, but some of those definitely might not count.

That provisio might change if the war in Ukriane ends before then.

 

[Karen-W]

I'd be very surprised if Russia failed at securing Olympic spots in each discipline. Send Mishina/Galliamov, Petrosian, Kondratiuk and Stepanova/Bukin and the thing is settled.

Don't they have to only send people who haven't ever publically supported the war? I'm sure they can still field a strong group, but some of those definitely might not count.

Yes, they cannot send any skaters in who do not meet the AIN criteria. There is no way that Mishina/Galliamov or Kondratiuk will pass any external review of their social media posts since the start of the war. I can't recall if Stepanova/Bukin were at any pro-war rallies or expressed any overt support for the war.

Boikova/Kozlovskii are clear, as far as I can recall they pretty much refrained from ANY support of the war at all. Petrosian probably would also be fine seeing as she's younger, but if she posted anything a few years ago, just because that was the thing everyone around her was doing, she may be in trouble.

Additionally, any skaters who train at Russian Army-affiliated sports schools are going to be out.

 

[Karen-W]

That provisio might change if the war in Ukriane ends before then.

I suppose anything is possible, but I wouldn't hold my breath. Right now, the Russian fed has to nominate athletes who can pass the AIN requirements and I would expect them to adhere to those requirements. Clearly, it's a big enough deal for them to be allowed into the OQE that they announced it during the broadcast, so they're not going to do anything to stupidly jeopardize their chances at having representation.

My expectation is that whomever they nominate in any category will be able to secure one of the quota places.

 

[Karen-W]

Stepanova/Bukin certainly should not clear the AIN review -

https://twitter.com/x/status/1870055926415212740

 

[ajingmarg]

I'd be very surprised if Russia failed at securing Olympic spots in each discipline. Send Mishina/Galliamov, Petrosian, Kondratiuk and Stepanova/Bukin and the thing is settled.

Not Kondratiuk. Maybe Gummenik.

Mark has no artistry