2022 Olympic Team Event

[Tahuu]

I don't think I saw the document for 2018 to see if it was the same as 2014, and, of course, even it if was, they can always change it for 2022, but in 2014, USFS published a document outlining the selection process for the team event. In theory, it ranked the disciplines from strongest to weakest, and then gave the highest ranked skater/team from the highest ranked discipline the option of doing the short, free, or both. Then they went to the next strongest discipline, and asked those skaters/teams. Of course, what the skater wants and what USFS wants can be two different things, but if the skater/team doesn't have the leverage, following what USFS wants is the only route to a medal and politik.

For 2014, it would have been Dance, Men, Ladies, Pairs. Davis/White wanted both, so Men and Ladies got the chance to do two, and then Castelli/Shnapir did both segments of Pairs. For 2018, if they did the same ranking, it would have been Men, Dance, Ladies, Pairs. That would have made it the Shibs' choice (or "choice") to do both.

Found the doc of the USOC approved 2014 Olympic team (individual and team events) selection procedures in the internet archive. It'll be a good reference for our discussion of the 2018 team selection later.

Basically the disciplines and then athletes are ranked based on their performance data in a list of competitions (in order of priority: current year US championships, previous year GPF, Worlds, GPs, 4CC, US championships, World junior, and JGPF). So 2022 nationals and next season (2021-20)'s GPF, Worlds, GPs, 4CC, nationals, World junior, and JGPF will be critical for every skater and team hoping to be selected for the Beijing Olympics.

For the team event, the top ranked selects first to compete in none, one or two segments, then the second ranked to pick what's left over, and so on, limited by the rule that only two disciplines may have substitutions. If one or two disciplines qualify only one skater or couple and they decline to participate or only in one segment, the team may be composed of only three disciplines or has to withdraw from the team event.

 

[VGThuy]

Honestly, they should have used Mirai in both segments and let Bradie just focus on her major international championship debut.

I think peaking for the team event SP and then again for the ladies event ~2 weeks later hurt her. She had her weakest performance of the season at the Olympics (individual event), iirc.

I wish the US had used 2 dance teams.

I think it was smart to use both ladies. Bradie was by far the most consistent and with more competitors in the SP, we needed a hit there. With only 5 competitors in the LP, it was smarter to use Mirai since the worst she could have done was 5th and she over performed and had probably the performance of her life with the first triple axel performed by an American lady at an Olympics.

The Shibs helped carry the US team in both the SD and FD staving off Bobrova/Soloviev and Cappellini/Lanotte and placing second in both portions. I think H/D and C/B possibly could have done that in one portion but given how they performed at 2017 Worlds, C/B’s hesitance that season outside of nationals FD, H/D’s history with nerves and even how they performed in the individual event later on, giving the Shibs both was the right call.

 

[dancing_on_ice]

I don't think there's a chance that the US doesn't put Nathan for both the short and free program. He's been so consistent lately, and he's clearly the top figure skater in the US, across all disciplines. I think they might put Chock/Bates for the free dance and Hubbell/Donohue for the rhythm dance. Even this season, when H/D's programs suck, they are still outscoring C/B in the rhythm dance because they are such strong skaters. Also, by letting both top ice dance teams compete, they are both guaranteed an Olympic medal. As such, it also might encourage them to retire after the Olympics are over, and USFSA may be interested in ending the logjam in ice dance that's existed since D/W retired and find a new top team among the younger couples.
US Pairs are such an inconsistent mess that it's ridiculous to try to predict what it could look like this far out.
US Ladies, I think Alysa has to do the free, since she has so much technical firepower. As for the short, Alysa's still the favorite, since she has a triple axel, and I'm not sure if Bradie or Mariah can get that in the next two years. It really depends on who is more consistent come 2022, and how Alysa's PCS is looking by then to see how she can compete against the Russian ladies.

It's pretty clear that it will be US vs. Russia for the gold. The fight will come down to ice dance, where the US top teams and Russian top teams are pretty equal. Men will be interesting because Russian men are quite inconsistent, and it depends on how well French, Canadian, and Chinese men do to see how many points the Russians can get. US Pairs are inconsistent too, and again, rests more on how the rest of the discipline stacks up.

 

[Colonel Green]

I don't think there's a chance that the US doesn't put Nathan for both the short and free program.

Contrarily, I would say that’s extremely unlikely because Nathan isn’t likely to want to do both programs with the men’s event where he’s the gold medal favourite (or co-favourite, depending on the state of the field). He didn’t in 2018. And since the US has lots of depth in men, it’s not a problem to have, say, Vincent do the free.

 

[starrynight]

I want the team event to go after the individual events.

I think that would stop skaters treating the team event like a warm up or avoiding it to be ready for the individual.

It would also take away the 'momentum' aspect that big fed skaters and/or political faves get from being in the team event.

But I find seeing the same programs again at the Olympics to be repetitive. If there is to be a team event, I'd like it to be something different than just seeing multiples of the same programs skated.

I'd much rather see them introduce pairs 'fours' or something if they want a team sport. But I get that the size of synchro teams is making it a struggle to introduce it to the Olympics. But that would be better than the team event as it is now.

 

[alj5]

For V/M in particular, it was a chance to try out a new lift for Moulin Rouge instead of the 'suggestive' one, which it was determined didn't work as well, so they knew to go back to the other one for the individual event. IMO they still would have won the individual event, but the margin would have been a lot closer.

They only won by 0.79. There's not a ton closer they could've been.

 

[Jeschke]

I am never good in reading criteria ( ) so maybe someone can help:

D.3.3 : What does the 'primarily' and 'if necessary' mean here? If a skater scores at worlds or GP, scores from Euros, 4CC's junior worlds etc. won't be considered.
Classic ?? example: It's likely Schott earns more points as Euros than Worlds. In that scenario, which points would count then towards the race? Worlds as primarily event or Euros as better backup?

D.3.5 : No clue here. What is that about? More points to score? I am confused.

Weren't the last time 2 men/ladies scoring? Maybe I mixed something up.

Thanks for the help

 

[kwanfan1818]

D.3.3 : What does the 'primarily' and 'if necessary' mean here? If a skater scores at worlds or GP, scores from Euros, 4CC's junior worlds etc. won't be considered.
Classic ?? example: It's likely Schott earns more points as Euros than Worlds. In that scenario, which points would count then towards the race? Worlds as primarily event or Euros as better backup?

Schott's 2021 Worlds points would count. Only if no Ladies skater from Germany didn't earn 2021 Worlds points would they count 2021 Euros points.

I'm not sure why they have D.3.3 at all.

D.3.5 says that two scores count:

1. If points earned at 2021-22 GP and/or GPF, take the highest number of points. If no points earned at either, take the highest number of points earned at a 2021-22 JGP.

AND add that to:

2. If points earned at 2021 Worlds, take the highest number of points. If no points earned at 2021 Worlds, take the highest number of points from 2021 Euros/4C's. If no points earned at 2021 Worlds or 2021 Euros/4's, take the highest number of points earned at Jr. Worlds.

 

[Jeschke]

I'm not sure why they have D.3.3 at all.

Thanks @kwanfan1818 for your explanation.
I think now I get it; seems pretty simple then.

So who we will have likely to make it?
RUS, USA, CAN, JPN, CHN, ITA, FRA, KOR, GER.

GEO (@Hanna ), ISR, UKR and FIN most likely to follow after.
Who did I miss? CZE without any good lady, dance and pairs seems out this season.

KOR has no current pair, or?
Same with GEO, or? Who can they get in time?

 

[Fairuza]

Thanks @kwanfan1818 for your explanation.
I think now I get it; seems pretty simple then.

So who we will have likely to make it?
RUS, USA, CAN, JPN, CHN, ITA, FRA, KOR, GER.

GEO (@Hanna ), ISR and FIN most likely to follow after.
Who did I miss? CZE without any good lady, dance and pairs seems out this season.

KOR has no current pair, or?
Same with GEO, or? Who can they get in time?

They had a junior pair at the Youth Olympics this year, didn’t they?

 

[Jeschke]

They had a junior pair at the Youth Olympics this year, didn’t they?

Me stupido ?‍ I forgot. They even medaled iirc.

 

[Fairuza]

Me stupido ?‍ I forgot. They even medaled iirc.

They did. The bronze.

 

[Spiralgraph]

About using Nathan for both portions of the team event... didn't US figure skating ask Nathan in 2018 whether he wanted to do both the short and the long and he chose to do the SP only? Why then should it be any different in 2022?
If they give our strongest discipline, men and therefore, Nathan the choice I don't think he would decide to skate both programs in two years. That individual possible gold medal is important to him, and USA Skating can't force anyone to do anything they don't want to.

 

[litenkyckling]

I definitely think theres a case to be made to give the RD to Hubbell/Donohue and the FD to Chock/Bates. In this quad H/D have been US champs, GPF champs and World medalists. C/B have been US champs, GPF medalists and 4CC champs. Who knows what will happen at Worlds or indeed next season, but I don't think any other US team is likely to occupy the US 1 and 2 slots come the Olympics.

It will (surely) be the last Olympics for both teams, they have the same coaches, and both are desperate for a medal. H/D felt done out of one last time round so I don't see them going out without a fight. It would in a way be the fairest way to do it. It can also be said that when they get it together H/D can really sell a RD and C/B really sell a FD more as they get big points in lifts and choreo moves.

 

[allezfred]

IMO they still would have won the individual event, but the margin would have been a lot closer.

Virtue/Moir won by 0.79 points.

 

[screech]

They only won by 0.79. There's not a ton closer they could've been.

They'd been receiving 6.30 or 6.21 points for the lift at their previous events (and 6.21 in the individual event). They only received 5.96 for the lift in the team event. So the margin of their win would have been approximately 0.25 less if they hadn't given it a test run in the team event and thus ruled it out for the individual event. And there would have been even more "P/C only lost because of the wardrobe malfunction" than there already was/still is.

 

[allezfred]

And there would have been even more "P/C only lost because of the wardrobe malfunction" than there already was/still is.

Papadakis/Cizeron DID lose because of the costume malfunction. The higher PCS in the short dance despite everything that happened was a clear sign of that.

 

[misskarne]

I actually think USFS would be smarter to use Jason in the SP. His SP ceiling is already very high and assuming he includes a quad by then it will likely be over 100, which is enough for him to be competitive with other potential scores. But Nathan's FS ceiling is higher.

 

[Colonel Green]

I actually think USFS would be smarter to use Jason in the SP. His SP ceiling is already very high and assuming he includes a quad by then it will likely be over 100, which is enough for him to be competitive with other potential scores. But Nathan's FS ceiling is higher.

But the free skate is the bigger strain to do multiple times, so I don't think Nathan would want to do the free program. And the short program is the more important program in the team event, anyway.

 

[alj5]

The US needs all the points it can get ahead (in theory) of Japan, Russia, and Canada. Currently, in men - a clean Yuzu and Nathan are about equal, with Russia and Canada behind. Factor in Aymoz, Rizzo/Grassl, Junhwan, Boyang Jin and there's some real points up for grabs in the short for the US to get ahead of Russia and Canada.

A clean with a quad in the short Jason is behind Yuzu, and behind those with a clean two-quad short. He still has not done clean quads in competition. How many Schindler's Lists have we seen? Too many. Yet Jason's free skate is mesmerizing in person and on TV. A great performance of the free with zero or one quad will score well.

 

[misskarne]

The US needs all the points it can get ahead (in theory) of Japan, Russia, and Canada. Currently, in men - a clean Yuzu and Nathan are about equal, with Russia and Canada behind. Factor in Aymoz, Rizzo/Grassl, Junhwan, Boyang Jin and there's some real points up for grabs in the short for the US to get ahead of Russia and Canada.

A clean with a quad in the short Jason is behind Yuzu, and behind those with a clean two-quad short. He still has not done clean quads in competition. How many Schindler's Lists have we seen? Too many. Yet Jason's free skate is mesmerizing in person and on TV. A great performance of the free with zero or one quad will score well.

Hanyu's highest score is 112, Jason's is 96. If we assume Jason goes over 100 with a clean quad - which he will have by then - then the gap narrows.

But Jason's highest FS score is in the 180s. With one clean quad he probably goes to 190, two, he might brush 200. Hanyu's is in the 210-220 region. I think Jason's a better bet for SP. And don't forget that will also depend heavily on USFS politicking not white-anting Jason's PCS. Jason only just got the PCS result he deserved at 4CC, and even that score wasn't high enough. But while USFS are trying to push Chen as a mid-high 90s skater (which is ludicrous), Jason will get underscored.

 

[ninalovesskating]

Random thought: If Efimova skates for Finland, does Finland have a shot?

• they've got Roman Galay who trains with Aliev
• Lindfors & Peltonen
• Turkkila/Versluis who are making their way to the 11-15 tier

 

[skatingguy]

Random thought: If Efimova skates for Finland, does Finland have a shot?

• they've got Roman Galay who trains with Aliev
• Lindfors & Peltonen
• Turkkila/Versluis who are making their way to the 11-15 tier

Scoring points from all four disciplines at Worlds next year, and on the Grand Prix the following season would be key for a country like Finland to qualify.

 

[happycamper2554]

Scoring points from all four disciplines at Worlds next year, and on the Grand Prix the following season would be key for a country like Finland to qualify.

That also assume russia would release efimova. Which who knows if they would.