1996
[if Baiul competed in 1996] I don't see Baiul as a threat in 1996. She was never really that consistent and was barely doing one of each triples and not really doing jump combos, spin combos or steps. By 1995, enough of elite skaters like Kwan, Chen, Bonaly and Bobek were doing more complete programs, with 7 triples, 2 3lutzes, 3/3s or a full range of steps, spins and jump combos that judges would be very hard pressed not to look at the reality of the deficiency of her first mark. I do believe if she continued her inconsistent self in 1995 and 1996, judges would have already fallen out of love / patience with her skating by the time of the Olympics. Skaters like Chen, Bobek and Sato would have established their artistic selves with actual choreographies by 1995 that Baiul wouldn't really have an edge on the second mark either.
Don't forget - by 1996, ladies could do a solo triple jump in the short. I wouldn't bank on Baiul having a clean short.
[if Sato competed in 1996] I see her as a moderate threat in 1996 for top 5 but unlikely to medal. She never really had the lutz and flip and barely made one of each in 1994. Her jump combos were small and often very slightly UR. Like Baiul, I see her being overtaken technically and can't see her matching the others with 2 3lutzes or 3/3s.
Kerrigan would likely have retired after 1992.
Bonaly wasn't going to be a threat in 1996 anyways because the judges didn't like her and she was also injured in 1996.
The podium would likely be Kwan, Chen and then Bobek, Slutskaya and Butyrskaya in some order fighting for bronze, with Sato being an outside shot for a medal. The way I see it, Bobek would likely be a lot more disciplined in 1996 if it was an Olympic year. If there was no 1994 Olympics, Butyrskaya wouldn't have fallen out of favour with her Fed for missing to qualify a spot there, and if Butyrskaya had more support, judges were more likely to go with her instead of Slutskaya then.
I am inclined to think the placement would be Kwan, Chen and Bobek.
2000
I think regardless of how Kwan vs Lipinski panned out between 1996 to 2000, Lipinski would have been too injured to be competitive in 2000. Bobek would be gone - can't see her last til 2000. I think the US team would still be Kwan, Nikodinov and Hughes. Nam and Cohen would have been too young or in any event not a threat. Kwan wouldn't have taken most of 1999 season off and who knows who would win 1999 Worlds then. She would also have deferred UCLA for a season. Regardless, Butyrskaya would be skating at her prime and be a major medal threat. Slutskaya might not have let herself go after 1998 season which ironically means there might not have been the transformation in 1999 that gave her so much success.
I am inclined to think the placement would be Kwan, Butyrskaya and Slutskaya.