Juniors aging out/moving up for 2019-2020

[haribobo]

I do not have a full list of who is aging out but if someone wants to tackle that, be my guest!

LADIES

Almost definitely moving up- Trusova (SB3), Shcherbakova (SB4), Kostornaia (SB7), Cui (SB17), Tarusina (SB19), Gubanova (SB20)

Could go either way- Yelim Kim (SB23)

Def staying junior- Kanysheva (SB21)

Harrell (SB44) is an interesting situation- she won pewter at US Nationals and will be old enough for senior events, but could also choose to stay back...

MEN

Aging out - Tomoki Hiwatashi (SB 23), Roman Savosin (SB30), Camden Pulkinen (SB35), Irakli Maisuradze (SB43), Alexei Erokhov (SB45), Alexei Krasnozhon (SB48)- was already on senior GP this year

Could go either way- Daniel Grassl (SB24)

Def staying junior- Stephen Gogolev (SB26)

PAIRS
Mishina/Galiamov SB10 4/01, 8/99
Kostiukovich/Ialin SB14 3/03, 8/98
Panfilova/Rylov SB15 1/03, 9/01
Akhanteva/Kolesov SB18 10/02, 1/01
Tang/Yang SB25 8/03, 8/98
Poluianova/Sopot SB27 7/01, 5/98 (aging out)
Feng/Nyman SB30 9/99, 4/00 (aging out)
Lockley/Prochnow SB33 7/02, 12/97 (aging out)

Russia has T/M, Z/E, B/K, P/K, E/K already in seniors. There is room on GP for 2 or 3 more pairs if the top ones want to move up.

DANCE
Lajoie/Lagha SB21 11/00, 4/99
Ushakova/Nekrasov SB23 6/02, 9/00
Khudaiberdieva/Nazarov SB25 10/02, 5/98 (aging out)
Shevchenko/Eremenko SB26 12/01, 8/97 (aging out)
Nguyen/Kolesnik SB32 11/02, 10/01

 

[hanca]

I don’t think that Akhanteva/Kolesov and Panfilova/Rylov are ready to move to seniors. With Kostiukovich/Yalin it is harder to decide. If I was their coach, I would keep them in juniors for one more season. They will have 2 JGP events, JGPF and very likely junior worlds (unless something weird happens at the junior nationals) and additionally they can do one or two challenger events to get more points. Even though they are pretty strong technically, I don’t think they will be getting very high PCS yet if they go senior and I would be worried that they would have a similar season to this year Pavliuschenko/Khodykin. Why wanting to a average (or slightly under average) senior pair when they can be top junior pair and building up their name and their position for the season after that.

 

[Dobre]

Dance:
I've been known to get the dates wrong before, but here's my best attempt. Not comprehensive, but I think does include everyone from Junior Worlds that ages up plus a number of other teams on the JGP. Wow, there are a lot if I've done my math correctly.

Lajoie & Lagha don't age up but are planning to move up at least at Nationals (per various posters who have been following their interviews better than me).
Khudaberdieva & Nazarov
Shevchenko & Eremenko
Fabbri & Ayer
Lopareva & Brissaud
Fisher & Mallette-Paquette
Stairs & Graham
Kalehanova & Palkhouski
Matthaei & Pfisterer
Polishook & Kizala
Friend & Badoui
Peterson & Schuster
Oliver & Paleev
Palfreyman & McCreary
Simitsakos & Wong
Kuts & Mikhailov (who have now split)
Haines & Koszuta (split)
Efimova & Petrov (split)

 

[Jarrett]

Is it possible for Hanna to do the JGP and senior CS events? I know it might requiring training slightly different programs but it might be better for her development. I think that her best bet unless she is okay with maybe just a Skate America spot if she doing well in the summer and Ting already had GP two spots.

 

[DobrinFan]

MEN

Aging out - Tomoki Hiwatashi (SB 23), Roman Savosin (SB30), Camden Pulkinen (SB35), Irakli Maisuradze (SB43), Alexei Erokhov (SB45), Alexei Krasnozhon (SB48)- was already on senior GP this year

Could go either way- Daniel Grassl (SB24)

Def staying junior- Stephen Gogolev (SB26)

Aging out:
Egor Murashov
Nurullah Sahaka
Kai Xiang Chew
Aleix Gabara
Jonathan Hess

Staying junior:
Practically everyone except maybe Grassl

ETA: also may Adam Siao Him Fa will move up? He can get the host spot at the French GP event right?

 

[Erin]

I expect Nguyen and Kolesnik would likely stay junior given their ages and that they didn’t medal at the JGPF, win the US National title or get a medal at junior worlds so they have a lot left to accomplish at the junior level. With the teams ahead of them at junior worlds all moving up for whatever reason, they would be the early favourites for all of those titles (although it doesn’t always work that way as we saw with Ushakova and Nekrasov).

It will be interesting to see what Joseph Phan and Conrad Orzel do - neither of them are aging out this year if I did the math correctly (I think Orzel is still eligible by 11 days and Phan still has two years left of eligibility even though it feels to me like he has been around forever). Canada is down to seven JGP spots next year, although presumably will pick up some from Italy who didn’t use up all of theirs this season. But they likely won’t have the full 14 as they did this season, and two of them will definitely go to Gogolev. Maybe it’s time for Phan and Orzel to focus on the Challenger series and give one of them the Skate Canada host spot and leave the JGP for younger skaters.

 

[Dobre]

Nguyen and Kolesnik . . . would be the early favourites for all of those titles (although it doesn’t always work that way as we saw with Ushakova and Nekrasov).

Maybe. I think Ushakova & Nekrasov might still be the early season favorites, with three regular JGP titles, a Junior World medal from two seasons ago, and a JGPF medal from this season. Plus their at-home competition moves up in Russia. While Nguyen & Kolesnik still go up against theirs. Anyway, I love N&K. Don't think it matters who the early season favorite will be. Think it matters who the favorite will be at the end of the season.

 

[Erin]

Maybe. I think Ushakova & Nekrasov might still be the early season favorites, with three regular JGP titles, a Junior World medal from two seasons ago, and a JGPF medal from this season. Plus their at-home competition moves up in Russia. While Nguyen & Kolesnik still go up against theirs. Anyway, I love N&K. Don't think it matters who the early season favorite will be. Think it matters who the favorite will be at the end of the season.

I misread that Ushakova and Nekrasov were aging out. Then yes, I would agree that they would be the favourites, as Nguyen and Kolesnik's finish at World juniors was an upset.

 

[Dobre]

Is it possible for Hanna to do the JGP and senior CS events?

Sure. All of the top senior age-eligible U.S. singles skaters on the JGP have been doing at least one CS a season in order to have a crack at earning their minimum scores. (Feng & Nyman were scheduled for one this year as well, though they withdrew). Most have only done the one Challenger in addition to the JGP; but Kraznozhon did two last year, I assume based on his result at his first event.

 

[her grace]

Ladies who are aging up, but not out, i.e., will be 15 by July 1st and could do Jr. or Sr. or some of each
Trusova, Shcherbakova, Tarakanova, Vasilieva RUS; You, To KOR; Arkhipova UKR; Harrell USA; Lang HUN; Kuzmenko FRA; Beccari ITA; Mikutina AUT, Soupian ISR; Sumiyoshi, Iwano JPN; Ihr SWE

Too young to move up
Sinitsyna, Kanysheva RUS; Lee, Wi KOR; Urushadze GEO

already old enough to do both Jr. and Sr.
Cui, Izzo, Kalyan USA, Shiraiwa, Kawabata, Yoshioka, Araki, Aoki, Takino JPN; Kim KOR; Schumacher CAN; Ryabova AZE; Chen CHN; Leung HKG; Feigin BUL; Coraducci SUI; Tarusina, Gubanova, Guiliakova RUS

aging out
Yokoi JPN; Spours GBR

 

[Nmsis]

ETA: also may Adam Siao Him Fa will move up? He can get the host spot at the French GP event right?

At the end of last season, Joubert said Adam needed one more year in junior and would then procede to senior level. Chance is that the french fed thinks the same.

 

[DobrinFan]

At the end of last season, Joubert said Adam needed one more year in junior and would then procede to senior level. Chance is that the french fed thinks the same.

Good. His PCS need work

 

[RoseRed]

Good. His PCS need work

I took that to mean that 2018-19 was the "one more year" and that he would be moving to senior now.

 

[DobrinFan]

I took that to mean that 2018-19 was the "one more year" and that he would be moving to senior now.

Eh.

 

[kosjenka]

At press conference at Junior Worlds, Trusova said she would be doing Grand Prix (as World Junior champion she will get an invitation), Shcherbakova said she will probably go to Grand Prix, but I am pretty sure she also said she wants to go to Junior Worlds next year so she may be doing a combination of junior and senior competitions.
Cui said she was turning senior next season.

 

[Colonel Green]

I’d agree that Adam’s PCS can be worked on, but there’s no reason he can’t work on it at the senior level. The French Fed can guarantee him at least one Grand Prix assignment, and if he misses the World team he can always take another trip to Junior Worlds at year’s end.

 

[Erin]

Yes if anything, competing with senior men could be a stronger incentive for Adam to work on his PCS, whereas at the junior level, he is more able to get away with winning on technical ability.

 

[kirkbiggestfan]

Good. His PCS need work

Brian will want to bring Morozov in! Didier will probably have someone else in mind. Like asking Brian to call Patrick Chan. I would pay to listen to that conversation.

 

[DobrinFan]

Brian will want to bring Morozov in! Didier will probably have someone else in mind. Like asking Brian to call Patrick Chan. I would pay to listen to that conversation.

Morozov wouldn't be a bad idea actually.

 

[SamuraiK]

Oops, wrong thread .

 

[Debbie S]

At press conference at Junior Worlds,

Do you know if this is this posted anywhere? I checked the Eurovision site and YouTube and couldn't find anything.

 

[Jeschke]

and I would be worried that they would have a similar season to this year Pavliuschenko/Khodykin.Why wanting to a average (or slightly under average) senior pair when they can be top junior pair and building up their name and their position for the season after that.

Medalling at both GP events, making GPF and coming in 5th at Euros.
What is worrisome and (slighty under) average in that and what exactly are the standards your team should have entering the senior scene?

 

[Rafter]

I expect Nguyen and Kolesnik would likely stay junior given their ages and that they didn’t medal at the JGPF, win the US National title or get a medal at junior worlds so they have a lot left to accomplish at the junior level. With the teams ahead of them at junior worlds all moving up for whatever reason, they would be the early favourites for all of those titles (although it doesn’t always work that way as we saw with Ushakova and Nekrasov).

It will be interesting to see what Joseph Phan and Conrad Orzel do - neither of them are aging out this year if I did the math correctly (I think Orzel is still eligible by 11 days and Phan still has two years left of eligibility even though it feels to me like he has been around forever). Canada is down to seven JGP spots next year, although presumably will pick up some from Italy who didn’t use up all of theirs this season. But they likely won’t have the full 14 as they did this season, and two of them will definitely go to Gogolev. Maybe it’s time for Phan and Orzel to focus on the Challenger series and give one of them the Skate Canada host spot and leave the JGP for younger skaters.

What is the criteria for JGP assignments? A 5th place at JW is only good for 7 guaranteed spots?

 

[Erin]

What is the criteria for JGP assignments? A 5th place at JW is only good for 7 guaranteed spots?

Top 3 countries get 14 spots, next 3 countries get 7 spots. Canada was 4th in countries behind US, Russia, and Italy. Canada is first in line if any of those countries don’t use all their spots. Italy probably won’t based on recent history, as they also had 14 this season and gave up a ton of spots. The US, who was next in line, had almost the full 14 (I believe there was just one event where the US didn’t have two men). So Canada could get close to 14 but is basically dependent on Italy.

 

[hanca]

Medalling at both GP events, making GPF and coming in 5th at Euros.
What is worrisome and (slighty under) average in that and what exactly are the standards your team should have entering the senior scene?

I wasn’t speaking about whether Pavliuschenko/Khodykin managed to medal at GP events or not. The pairs field was quite weak generally after so many pairs retired, so medalling at GP events this season wasn’t that big deal as it would have been the past few seasons in much stronger field. But P/K’s skating was still so juniorish looking that they looked a bit lost in seniors. Unlike them, Boikova/Kozlovski managed to look like a senior team and made it easier for themselves for the next season. They made impression and I think the judges will take them more seriously.

What are my standards to enter senior scene...well, if I was the coach, I would like my team to make the impression. Lay the foundation for the next season. Wanting medals is great, but sometimes fourth or even fifth place in a very strong field has bigger value (long term) than silver or bronze medal in pretty weak field. Next year, Boikova/Kozlovski could be among the top at worlds (not saying that they would necessarily beat Sui/Han, but be among the best), whereas Pavliuschenko/Khodykin won’t be because they won’t get the PCS even if they land everything clean.

Last year Pavliuschenko/Khodykin were the best Russian junior team, clearly better than Boikova/Kozlovski and Mishina/Galliamov. This season they were worse than Boikova/Kozlovski and there were not much difference between P/K and M/G. So I really can’t see Pavliuschenko/Khodykin being that happy with their season because they are falling down the Russian rankings. And this will be important when deciding who gets the biggest assignments (Europeans and worlds).

 

[kosjenka]

Do you know if this is this posted anywhere? I checked the Eurovision site and YouTube and couldn't find anything.

Don't know if there was a video recording, but I was at the press conference and typing the statements given by skaters. i can check the audio recording later, but I am sure Trusova is going senior (and is very eager to do so), while Scherbakova will likely be doing senior GP and going back to Junior Worlds.
as for Nguyen & Kolesnik - they are staying junior. they said so.

 

[haribobo]

Panfilova/Rylov defeated P/K at 17-18 JGPF. Also Boikova/Kozlovskii had a higher SP score than P/K that season. I think P/K had as good of a season this year as their talent will allow. B/K are just a higher quality team and their slightly better results in the latter half of this season reflect that. There is no historical data to support that cooking in juniors longer will allow more senior success- Michelle Kwan started in seniors really young, for example, and figured it all out over time.

 

[Debbie S]

Don't know if there was a video recording, but I was at the press conference and typing the statements given by skaters. i can check the audio recording later, but I am sure Trusova is going senior (and is very eager to do so), while Scherbakova will likely be doing senior GP and going back to Junior Worlds.
as for Nguyen & Kolesnik - they are staying junior. they said so.

Oh, I wasn't doubting you about what anyone said. I just wanted to watch, if it was available.

 

[Jeschke]

@hanca thanks for the reply and explanation.
I personally think there are way too many variables in this topic but I don't have the time to name and explain them right now.

So let's keep it as most of the times with us: different opinion