The Seguin/Bilodeau Love Thread - because they're the cutest

Yikes, not such a great showing in the SP! :( Crossing my fingers that they come back strong in the free.
 
:slinkaway

Roughhhh skate, man. It would be really unfortunate if they miss the GPF after taking first at Skate America.
 
princeton123 said:
:slinkaway

Roughhhh skate, man. It would be really unfortunate if they miss the GPF after taking first at Skate America.
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Well their win at Skate America will win the first tie breaker, so I think they will likely still make it. Even if they end up 5th here, they would beat a team with two 3rd places, or a team with a 2nd and a 4th (22 points). If they move up to fourth place, they would win a tie break with a team with a 2nd and 3rd. (24 points).

Fingers crossed for the free skate!
 
Just cutting-and-pasting some GPF math (in relation to S/B's chances of making GPF) here that I originally posted in the Canadian Pairs thread on GSD:

Savchenko/Massot and Duhamel/Radford will make the GPF barring disaster. All they have to do is place fifth or better at their second GP events (Trophee de France and NHK, respectively) to tie S/B, and if they even placed as low as fifth (which is highly unlikely), they would probably win the second tiebreaker against S/B. (First tiebreaker would be highest placement, but in that case both teams would still be tied at one first-place finish and one fifth-place; second tiebreaker is total combined score from both events. S/M's winning score at CoR was about ten points higher than S/B's winning score at SA; D/H's winning score at SC was about twenty points higher than S/B's SA total... so either team would probably easily win that second tiebreak even on the off-chance that they skated so poorly that they finished fifth.)

Tarasova/Morozov, Yu/Zhang and Zabijako/Enbert are all in the same boat vs. S/B, which is that each of those teams would have to place third or better at their respective second events (France, China, France) to make the GPF ahead of S/B. Looking at the field for Trophee de France, it is very probable that T/M will medal easily and quite possible that Z/E could medal as well. Y/Z should also easily medal at Cup of China.

That would leave one spot open for GPF, and that's where things get a bit more dicey.

Iliushechkina/Moscovitch would have to place second or higher at Cup of China to pass S/B to the GPF. If they placed third at CoC, S/B would win the tiebreak because both teams would have qualifying points of 22, but S/B would have the higher placement (1st at SA) to win the first tiebreaker. Looking at the CoC field, it is possible, but I would say improbable given Liubov's jumping history, for I/M to win the silver or gold medal and surpass S/B for a GPF spot.

Kavaguti/Smirnov would have to win CoC to tie S/B for 22 qualifying points, and then it would go to the second tiebreaker (because they would both have 1+5 as their placements). K/S would have to beat S/B's total combined score from two GPs of 380.68 to break the tie. Again, possible, but I don't know how probable.

Finally, we have two Chinese teams that could play wildcard because they haven't competed in any of the first three GPs, so they're a bit of an unknown entity at this point in the season. Both Peng/Jin and Wang/Wang are competing at Cup of China and NHK, and they could take the last GP slot by placing 2nd and 3rd (or higher - 2nd and 2nd or 1st and 4th) at both competitions. P/J are a brand-new team, so who the hell knows how they'll place, and looking at W/W's past results, I wouldn't expect them to come up with a combined placing so high, but... again, who knows? Ice is slippery and weird.

I don't think I left out any possibles or did any of that math incorrectly, but please correct me/fill in my blanks if I missed anything!
 
The standings on the ISU site aren't up to date yet, but S&B just caught a bit of a break for the GPF with James & Cipres beating out Zabiiako & Enbert for the bronze in France. That puts S&B ahead of Z&E in the standings and narrows the number of teams who can pass them for the GPF. Right now, they are third, behind Savchenko & Massot and Tarasova & Morozov. They will likely be passed by Duhamel & Radford and Yu & Zhang. They can still make it in if one more team passes them. Teams with a chance would include: Kavaguti & Smirnov (must win gold and beat S&B on the total score tiebreaker), Lubov & Dylan (2nd or better), and either of Peng & Jin or the Wangs or Vartmann & Blommaert with a combination of a 2nd & 3rd. I haven't worked through all of these combinations or permutations, but my gut puts their odds at getting in as pretty good right now.
 
I saw the results for Trophee de France and my first thought was, "YES! Z/E cooperated!" :lol:

Looking at the math and the combined results that would be needed to surpass S/B for the fifth or sixth spots at GPF, I think they'll make it in the end. :cheer2:
 
GPF update:

- I/M are behind SB in GPF standings now because though they are tied for points (22 points teach), S/B beat I/M on the first tiebreaker, which is highest overall placement. S/B have 1st/5th and I/M have 3rd/3rd, so S/B win that tie.

- Yu/Zhang won CoC, so they are now ahead of S/B and have a spot in the GPF.

- That means three spots are now guaranteed -- S/M, Y/Z and T/M -- and D/R will get a slot after NHK unless extreme disaster strikes, so two spots would be left.

- The two teams that can now prevent S/B from getting a GPF slot are Peng/Jin and Wang/Wang (both of CHN). P/J won the silver at CoC, so if they place 3rd or better at NHK, they will get a slot ahead of S/B. This is very possible (even likely) given the weakness of the pairs field at NHK. W/W would get the last GPF slot if they won NHK, which is highly, highly unlikely both because of D/R's presence at that comp and W/W's newness as a team. If W/W placed second at NHK, they would tie S/B in points, but S/B would break the tie on overall placements (1st/5th compared to 5th/2nd).

Soooo... unless I'm forgetting something/someone major, it looks like S/B will almost certainly get into the GPF after all! :cheer2: Winning SA really saved their a$$es when it came down to breaking a lot of point ties.
 
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Nice comeback in the FS from Julianne and Charlie at GPF. Charlie's fall on the 3T aside, it was a lovely skate.

They just looked off their feet throughout the SP. Very unlike them. Perhaps they haven't gotten enough re-mileage on the old SP yet?
 
princeton123 said:
They need to drill jumps every day until Canadians.
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My thoughts exactly. They need to get their consistency issues fixed and NOW. I/M are right at their heels, and while I think S/B will have a pretty strong shot of making the Olympic team next year (isn't Lubov still not a citizen and thus ineligible?), they need to finish out this season strong in order to stay in the conversation.
 
NOOOOOO! Julianne and Charlie are out of Canadians, as Julianne is recovering from a concussion. :wuzrobbed:wuzrobbed:wuzrobbed

I'm so disappointed, and I'm sure they are, too. I hope her recovery goes well and quickly.

I wonder what SC will do about the World team? Surely they'll wait to see if S&B can go to 4CC and then decide after that?
 
dramagrrl said:
NOOOOOO! Julianne and Charlie are out of Canadians, as Julianne is recovering from a concussion. :wuzrobbed:wuzrobbed:wuzrobbed

I'm so disappointed, and I'm sure they are, too. I hope her recovery goes well and quickly.

I wonder what SC will do about the World team? Surely they'll wait to see if S&B can go to 4CC and then decide after that?
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It's really a pity. And I think that probably they won't even be sent to 4CC if both Ilyushechkina/Moscovitch and Moore-Towers/Marinaro perform well at Nationals. Their results this season have not been so great that they should automatically be given a bye to any competition, especially if another team earns that spot with a good performance(s) at Nationals.
 
What...noooooooooo. Wishing her a speedy recovery.

I was so looking forward to seeing them at Cdns. I still can't really stand MT/M.. no offence to them.
 
lauravvv said:
And I think that probably they won't even be sent to 4CC if both Ilyushechkina/Moscovitch and Moore-Towers/Marinaro perform well at Nationals. Their results this season have not been so great that they should automatically be given a bye to any competition, especially if another team earns that spot with a good performance(s) at Nationals.
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I tend to disagree. MT&M have been injured for most of the season so far, while S&B won their first GP event and then made it to the GPF despite a poor (for them) showing at their second GP. MT&M skating well at Canadians would/should not guarantee them a spot at Worlds, IMO, because they have not been able to prove any kind of consistency this season. Their performance at Challenge was weak (even if that was because they had only resumed full practices shortly before that competition) and a good showing at Canadians might not be easily replicated in the two major internationals later this season.

I wonder if D&R would want to skip 4CC or if SC would convince them to do so to allow S&B to compete against I&M and MT&M if they were ready to do so at that point.
 
What a pity. Wishing Julianne a speedy recovery and no long-term negative effects of the injury. I will miss seeing them. Hope they can be considered for the World spot. Even though one wants to be fair to everybody... I really like them so #stayingsubjective
 
Since the total of clean SBS triple jumps in the LP between I/M and MT/M was zero, I think S&B have a good chance of being named to the 4CC/World teams if Julianne is healthy in time.
 
While I don't love MTM2, I think they've been making huge improvements. This year Mike looked noticeably stronger than he has in the past. And given KMT is recovering from a concussion, we can't exactly expect perfection. Plus, she was probably having to console her boyfriend (Liam) after the short programs, possibly affecting her preparation for the LP.

Also, I think they were a smidge undermarked in the short program, compared to I/M. That said, I do much prefer S/B and I/M to them.

If S/B are healthy, I can see them getting Worlds over MTM2. I'd predict MTM2 getting 4CC though.
 
Oh, I agree about MT/M - they've definitely improved, even with the lack of serious training time due to her injury. And I also agree that they were a bit undermarked or I/M were a bit overmarked comparatively in the SP, but SC and also international judges seem to have decided that I/M's ~artistry~ and PCS are so far above MT/M that they will consistently beat them even with errors. (I don't disagree that I/M's basic skating skills are still quite a bit above MT/M's overall, but I'm not entirely buying this whole push of I/M's great ~artistry~ this season, especially when a) Liubov can't seem to land any SBS jumps and b) after jump problems, I find her expression tends to disintegrate or turn into a one-note generic Smile of Romance a lot of the time. :P)

Anyhow, I still think a healthy S/B have a margin of error over both these teams, and international judges seem to agree.
 
dramagrrl said:
...I find her expression tends to disintegrate or turn into a one-note generic Smile of Romance a lot of the time. :p)
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Kind of funny, but I was texting my sister during their performance and mentioned how Luba always kind of gazes at Dylan as though she's in love with him (even as they're just hitting their starting position).
 
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