Ice Dance - Olympic Qualifying - April Edition

[Karen-W]

Now that Worlds is over, the question on everyone's minds is who will earn the 4 spots allocated in September in Beijing?

Options include the Top 8 teams on the SB from countries that have not earned spots - SB range from 170.50 to 179.53, with the exception of Reed/Ambrulevicius with a SB of 196.66 from Euros.

 

[kwanfan1818]

I would say yes for Reed/Ambrulevicious, and I suspect Harris/Chan, but the "OR" for Italy, I'd say "yes" for Tali/Lafornara, or at least put them on the cusp, but "no" for Manni/Roethlisberger. I'm hoping for Yoshida/Morita. If Stepanova/Bukin skate, I'd assume they'd be in.

One question will be the judges on the panel, and whether they're among the Fab Four who do each other's dirties.

 

[caseyedwards]

No reason to believe anyone from Russia will be eligible definitely LTU

 

[AngieNikodinovLove (ANL)]

the question on everyone's minds

That’s a total blanket statement. The question of my mind is do I purchase these Reese’s peanut butter bunnies? This is a humdinger.

 

[Karen-W]

That’s a total blanket statement. The question of my mind is do I purchase these Reese’s peanut butter bunnies? This is a humdinger.

I don't see how this is a conundrum at all. The answer should always be yes.

 

[skateblessing]

The one team that place 5th is probably going to get the spot by the look sof it. Since it doesn´t seem like Yuka will get her citizenship in time. And I don´t think Finland has a 2nd team to fill the spot

 

[Karen-W]

The one team that place 5th is probably going to get the spot by the look sof it. Since it doesn´t seem like Yuka will get her citizenship in time. And I don´t think Finland has a 2nd team to fill the spot

There's been a discussion in The Dance Hall thread about Yuka's citizenship. I don't know that we can say for certain what will happen with regard to her citizenship application.

 

[Stephanie]

Is the expectation that Jason Chan would somehow get a passport? At least Anastasia Golobeva has lived in Australia a little bit.

 

[Karen-W]

Is the expectation that Jason Chan would somehow get a passport? At least Anastasia Golobeva has lived in Australia a little bit.

Pretty sure Anastasia has her Australian passport already. Her post-Worlds IG posts were very excited about having earned an Olympic spot as that was one of their team goals.

No idea about Jason or his chances of getting one if he hasn't.

 

[Stephanie]

Pretty sure Anastasia has her Australian passport already. Her post-Worlds IG posts were very excited about having earned an Olympic spot as that was one of their team goals.

No idea about Jason or his chances of getting one if he hasn't.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1905432103623287123

Not done yet but expected before the Olympics.

 

[Karen-W]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1905432103623287123

Not done yet but expected before the Olympics.

And, to be fair, their international results, both as juniors & seniors, are far more impressive than Harris/Chan. I realize they're two different disciplines, but it's hard to overlook two JWC silver medals and three consecutive Worlds Top 10 finishes. While we all know the logjam at the top of ice dance has prevented a lot of teams from moving up, Harris/Chan have placed 18, 16, 17 & 19 the last 4 years and been passed by several new/rising junior teams. I think their chances are better for 2030, presuming the logjam ahead of them clears out at least some post-2026.

 

[PRlady]

And, to be fair, their international results, both as juniors & seniors, are far more impressive than Harris/Chan. I realize they're two different disciplines, but it's hard to overlook two JWC silver medals and three consecutive Worlds Top 10 finishes. While we all know the logjam at the top of ice dance has prevented a lot of teams from moving up, Harris/Chan have placed 18, 16, 17 & 19 the last 4 years and been passed by several new/rising junior teams. I think their chances are better for 2030, presuming the logjam ahead of them clears out at least some post-2026.

TBH, having been passed by Mrazeks, Koreans and Bek/Her, they could well be passed by Tali/LaF and Grimmsky next quad. I see some improvement this year but they are just not memorable.

 

[Dobre]

Actually, I think Harris & Chan are doing pretty well. The field gets deeper as the quadrennium goes on. Harris & Chan have held a place in making the FD cut, which isn't something you do if you start out the quad on the bubble and aren't getting better.

And they are. Jason is growing into himself. He used to be so gangly. They started out at world international events super early in their partnership because there's less competition to earn the Australian spot, but now they are there--with the Korean team, Britts, and Canadians. It's progress.

They need four more years, but they are the first Australian dance team I've seen that I could picture getting up there to possibly one day fight for the top 10.

I would not have said that last year so they really do look stronger to me than in the past. They need to figure out who they are. That FD last year did nothing for them, and she wasn't up to Madonna. Still, they've got to find/develop something that is them.

 

[kwanfan1818]

I thought Harris/Chan looked weak in the RD, and a lot more coherent in the FD

 

[shan]

I thought Harris/Chan looked weak in the RD, and a lot more coherent in the FD

Yeah, I was pleasantly surprised at how good their FD was choreographically and performance wise. It's a step up from the last few years, considering the fact that I can't name any of their past programs. I always want them to do well, so it's good to see some improvements.

 

[Taso]

Yeah, I was pleasantly surprised at how good their FD was choreographically and performance wise. It's a step up from the last few years, considering the fact that I can't name any of their past programs. I always want them to do well, so it's good to see some improvements.

I felt the same.

 

[Belsornia]

I hope Harris/Chan make it, even though they're not one of my favourite teams to watch. They put down one of their strongest performances at Worlds, and it's unfortunate for them the way the qualification rules worked out. But I'm not confident that they'll do it. They tend to start their seasons pretty messily but then come through for the championship events. They'll need a different strategy if they're going to be on top of their game in September.

If Stepanova/Bukin don't get cleared (and since Khudaiberdieva/Bazin are apparently done), from what I've seen the other potential AIN tbc teams are pretty much on a par with the other on-the-bubble teams listed - but I expect them to get a spot anyway.

The only other wildcard I see is Ren/Xing, who won the FD and ran Yoshida/Morita close at the Asian Winter Games, and will have home ice advantage again at the qualifier. Maria Kazakova is an Olympian but even if Kasinskii finally gets his release, his previous results are much less and he won't have competed for three seasons, so I don't expect Georgia to get a second spot. Pinchuck/Pogorielov and Tkachenko/Kiliakov, if they can get back to their junior form, should be in the mix too, but probably just on the wrong side of the line.

(TBH I'm feeling pretty relaxed about this now that GB has the second spot confirmed and Reitan/Majorov have no chance at citizenship. )

 

[Karen-W]

(TBH I'm feeling pretty relaxed about this now that GB has the second spot confirmed and Reitan/Majorov have no chance at citizenship. )

Do we know this for certain? There are plenty of Norwegian people who have Swedish citizenship & vice versa.

 

[Belsornia]

From what I read, Reitan isn’t a Swedish citizen and Sweden doesn’t do expedited citizenship for athletes. They’re spending more time in Sweden to keep 2030 on the table, but it won’t be happening next year.

Of course, they could win a spot and then Kivioja/Pellnor use it but given Swedish Olympic Committee strictness I don’t think that’s likely.

 

[skateblessing]

From what I read, Reitan isn’t a Swedish citizen and Sweden doesn’t do expedited citizenship for athletes. They’re spending more time in Sweden to keep 2030 on the table, but it won’t be happening next year.

Of course, they could win a spot and then Kivioja/Pellnor use it but given Swedish Olympic Committee strictness I don’t think that’s likely.

I think they are one of the teams that has a good chance of getting one of the last spots. They are still very fresh as a team and has already produced really good scores, and if they keep improving in the off season they might be ahead of a lot of those teams on the bubble, scores are pretty close there. I guess it might depend on how much reputation will count and how the judging panel looks. They will probably also do well with the new RD theme.

In the scenario that they win a spot for Sweden and only K/P could go because Milla doesn´t have citizenship, but SOC decides against it, it would not look good on Sweden. That might make R/M consider transferring to Norway before 2030, because how are they going to trust that SOC will send them if they won´t send K/P? They will probably need the promising athlete exception for 2030, as the previous requirement score (equivalent top 8 at Worlds) is too high, and all though they already produced really good results and are indeed promising, SOC might not see it that way. Nikolaj has already been to one Olympics, and will be 29 at that time.

When SOC decided against not sending Alexander Majorov for the 2018 Olympics, he was only 26 and had great results to show up with. In the season before he had several gold medals from some international competitions and took the bronze at Universiade. He placed 11th at Euros the season before. In the Olympic season he took some medals as well early in the season, and placed 10th at Europeans. In the end - all of this was not enough simply because they would not send him on the promising athlete exception and he hadn´t produced a score above Kolyadas 8th place of 257.47 at Worlds 17. At Swedish Nationals he even came close to that with a score of 253.20.
I think the problem was he already did Olympics in 2014, so then he wasn´t a promising athlete anymore..

I think R/M would have to worry less if Nikolaj hadn´t already been to one Olympics. Question is if the switching of discipline will help them, but so far we havn´t seen SOC send someone to Olympics twice on the promising athlete exception.

Though, if R/M are sure citizenship is really out of the question now, they might not even go to Beijing if they want to concentrate on earning money in the off season and start their season later, maybe K/P would have to go themselves if they want to fight for their own spot. If there is low chances of SOC sending K/P there is no reason for R/M to try win a spot for Sweden. And they could possible focus instead on climbing the alternate list for GP to get a late spot, by improving their SB score.

 

[skateblessing]

Do we know this for certain? There are plenty of Norwegian people who have Swedish citizenship & vice versa.

I read from mixed zone interview at Euros and Worlds that they are working on it, but don´t have a timeline. Milla is working and paying taxes in Sweden, they already officially moved to Sweden in January last year, so the process started some time ago. But I have no clue how long the process will take.
For language test, I don´t think Milla will have any problem. She seems to be almost as bilingual as Nikolaj, and Norwegians tend to be better in understanding Swedish than the other way around. I think the biggest issue here is the application time and possible other requirements, but I have no clue about what that would be.

I know they have said that they havn´t really been expecting and focusing on making it to 2026 Olympics, but I don´t think that is because of the citizenship situation alone.

 

[kwanfan1818]

In the scenario that they win a spot for Sweden and only K/P could go because Milla doesn´t have citizenship, but SOC decides against it, it would not look good on Sweden. That might make R/M consider transferring to Norway before 2030, because how are they going to trust that SOC will send them if they won´t send K/P?

The Swedish OC does not care how it looks. They have proven this time and time again.

The SOC would not send K/P, because they are under the radar as far as results are concerned: their top team by far R/M didn't qualify for the FD at Worlds, and the SOC might not even care if they qualify in Beijing. If they beat the odds and earn a spot in Beijing -- a big "if", because it's not like Harris/Chan, with IAM behind them, and as a team that actually qualified for the FD in Boston, aren't going to be working their butts off to qualify, nor are other teams about to assume they're an in, perhaps aside from an AIN team -- that might not be enough for them to qualify under the developing athlete requirements, were her citizenship application to jump the queue.

And unless the SOC tells them outright and in advance that they won't qualify for the exception in 2030 if they keep going on their current trajectory, there are two possibilities: 1. They qualify on their own by 2030 and don't need the exception 2. They decide to transfer to Norway.

The SOC doesn't care if they transfer to Norway. So Norway may be represented in 2030 by this lovely team, assuming their NOC isn't as dumb as the SOC. It's not like they didn't meet the qualifications for Worlds, which are pretty high, and which they exceeded by over 8 points, or 9% over the TES minimum; they aren't Eddie the Eagle hobbyists.

 

[skateblessing]

The Swedish OC does not care how it looks. They have proven this time and time again.

The SOC would not send K/P, because they are under the radar as far as results are concerned: their top team by far R/M didn't qualify for the FD at Worlds, and the SOC might not even care if they qualify in Beijing. If they beat the odds and earn a spot in Beijing -- a big "if", because it's not like Harris/Chan, with IAM behind them, and as a team that actually qualified for the FD in Boston, aren't going to be working their butts off to qualify, nor are other teams about to assume they're an in, perhaps aside from an AIN team -- that might not be enough for them to qualify under the developing athlete requirements, were her citizenship application to jump the queue.

And unless the SOC tells them outright and in advance that they won't qualify for the exception in 2030 if they keep going on their current trajectory, there are two possibilities: 1. They qualify on their own by 2030 and don't need the exception 2. They decide to transfer to Norway.

The SOC doesn't care if they transfer to Norway. So Norway may be represented in 2030 by this lovely team, assuming their NOC isn't as dumb as the SOC. It's not like they didn't meet the qualifications for Worlds, which are pretty high, and which they exceeded by over 8 points, or 9% over the TES minimum; they aren't Eddie the Eagle hobbyists.

It´s likely some teams will place above them in Beijing, but if Finland will be unable to use their 2nd spot because of Yukas citizenship situation, they might be the 4th best team and next in line. Also, we don´t know yet about some other teams citizenship, so maybe even 5th best team will eventually earn a spot for their country. We don´t know about Chan citizenship either.

Personally, if SOC sticks with the same requirement, score equal top 8 at previous Worlds, the required score for 26 would be 195, and there is no reason to believe that ID will go into some slump in the next cycle that will bring lower scores in Worlds 29. Assuming the required score would be around the same - let´s say 190 - that is a huge score for them to achieve in 4 years - even with massive overscoring in some Challengers and Swedish Nats (which doesn´t seem to massive overscore either). Yes they already achieved over 170 points this season, but adding 20 points on that score in the next cycle is not realistic no matter what competition they attend. With a score of 190 we are probably talking about possible medal contenders at Euros in the next quad. Sure they can probably be able to achieve a score of the high 180s sometimes in the next 4 years, but 190+ before 2030? That would be a huge risk to take. The only thing that can help in this scenario if SOC somehow adjust the requirement to something more realistic to achieve.

If they are thinking about making a transfer to Norway, they really don´t have much time to think before 2030. They will need to sit out a season, they will also on the same time be in the need to climb the rankings to be sure they can qualify a spot, and Nikolaj would also need to work on getting Norwegian citizenship. It isn´t a decision they can make in 2029. They would probably only skate for Sweden the next season and then start the process and sit out 26/27 season.

I would really hate it for them to qualify a spot in 2030, Milla getting her citizenship and then no Olympics because of SOC. Sure, they also make the decision to transfer in 2030, and then try to make it 2034, but I´m not sure they would stick along that long. I´m pretty sure NOC don´t have the same stupid requirements. As you say, even qualifying for Worlds is an achievement in itself.

 

[Karen-W]

@skateblessing - if ReiMaj decide they need to make a country switch, they would be far better off sitting out next season than waiting until the 2026-27 season. Sitting out next season gives them an opportunity to continue working on the improvements they need to make to have the score jump you believe is impossible - though SmaDie just proved this very season that sometimes a score increase like that season over season is achievable. Sitting out next season & coming back once the field clears up some with the post-Oly season retirements would give them an opportunity to make a splash & rise in the standings more quickly than they are right now - and I think they're moving up pretty smoothly, all things considered.

Having said that, if they don't expect for Milla to receive Swedish citizenship in time for the upcoming Olympics, then I would not expect the Swedish fed to send them to Beijing to try to earn a spot - that's an EXPENSIVE trip to make for no reason. There are other teams who will be there, vying for the spots & whose countries WILL use them - Val/Kazimov, Tali/Lafornara, Ignateva/Szemko.

 

[kwanfan1818]

I think it would be a tall order for R/M to be accepted off the waiting list, even with other couples' citizenship questions, especially since other countries have shown that they are willing to issue passports somewhat expeditiously for skaters. Even if they pulled it off, she'd need citizenship, or the appointment would be moot when the SOC denied them after Euros.

If they didn't have their SOC blocking them, and there weren't citizenship issues, and they managed to earn a spot, they would have a very nice Olympic experience, probably skating the RD and enjoying the Olympic Village.

However, I don't think there's any scenario where they either are sent in 2026 by three miracles-in-a-row, and expect to be denied in 2030 under the normal criteria -- trying to get past the 12 or so teams that are ahead of them by a long way now, without any young teams who could pass them after paying their entry-to-senior dues -- or they didn't make it in 2026, but were going to be considered too old for the exception in 2030 -- age vs. experience -- that they would stay skating for Sweden.

 

[skateblessing]

@skateblessing - if ReiMaj decide they need to make a country switch, they would be far better off sitting out next season than waiting until the 2026-27 season. Sitting out next season gives them an opportunity to continue working on the improvements they need to make to have the score jump you believe is impossible - though SmaDie just proved this very season that sometimes a score increase like that season over season is achievable. Sitting out next season & coming back once the field clears up some with the post-Oly season retirements would give them an opportunity to make a splash & rise in the standings more quickly than they are right now - and I think they're moving up pretty smoothly, all things considered.

Having said that, if they don't expect for Milla to receive Swedish citizenship in time for the upcoming Olympics, then I would not expect the Swedish fed to send them to Beijing to try to earn a spot - that's an EXPENSIVE trip to make for no reason. There are other teams who will be there, vying for the spots & whose countries WILL use them - Val/Kazimov, Tali/Lafornara, Ignateva/Szemko.

I agree it would be better, but if they havn´t thought about switching until now I don´t think they are coming up with the idea themselves until we know for sure if SOC still suck (pun intended). Maybe they are expecting them to change the requirements before 2030 or even before 26. The issue is - we might not find out anytime soon. Andreas is surely getting his ticket for promising athlete either way, he hasn´t been to Olympics yet and surely has results to show for it. The best hint to know if they still stuck, would be if Josefin decides do try to qualify a spot in Beijing, makes a spot for Sweden and then they don´t give her a promising athlete exception (and other unrealistic requirement), and instead send their 2nd best skater who is young and hasn´t been to Olympics yet, or worse - they don´t send anybody. But we don´t yet if she will even go to Beijing, particular if she is expecting not to be sent by SOC, she might not. The scenario with Josefin getting denied by SOC would be really sad, but it would probably get some attention again on SOC and their unreasonable demand and lit up the old wound from 2018 poor decision. Something like this could perhaps make them realize they are taking a huge risk if they continue to skate for Sweden. Maybe in this scenario they would not skate after Euros 2026 and think about switching.

I doubt they would have started to skate for Sweden in first place and started process with citizenship for Milla if they were perhaps planning on switching to Norway in time for Olympics 2030 or really considering it at this point. If they had skated for Norway from the beginning, they would only have needed to delay their season start a little because Nikolaj already had his last international comp at the fall in GP the year before. Of course at that time maybe the thought was as simple as that Norway had a team, Sweden didn´t, and they didn´t factor OG in the decision after all. At that time they had a better chance to make it to Europeans and Worlds in Sweden, without having Olympics and SOC in mind. Nobody really expected them to be so good already that they at this point already could be in the discussion about OG 26.