2026 Olympics Team Event - Strategy, Predictions & Discussion

[Sylvia]

ISU Communication No. 2754 (5 pages; Dec. 10, 2025)
OLYMPIC WINTER GAMES 2026
ENTRIES/PARTICIPATION FIGURE SKATING TEAM EVENT
INCLUDING CLARIFICATIONS RELATED TO THE FIGURE SKATING TEAM EVENT AND REPLACEMENTS/SUBSTITUTIONS FOR MEDICAL REASONS
Link: https://isu-d8g8b4b7ece7aphs.a03.az...fied-Teams-for-Team-event-1765354454-3134.pdf

Excerpts:

1 USA 7069
2 JPN* 6027 a* Ice Dance
3 ITA 4606
4 CAN 4231
5 GEO 4106
6 FRA* 3829 a* Pairs
GER 2777
7 GBR* 2671 a* Men
KAZ 2454
8 KOR* 2171 b* Pairs
9 CHN 2132
SUI 1946
BEL 1598
HUN 1476
FIN 1454
ESP 1414
EST 1393
AUS 1284
LTU 1224
SVK 1208
CZE 1190
UKR 906
ISR 808
10 POL* 776 b* Ice Dance

a* JPN, FRA and GBR are considered as an incomplete, qualified Team. They can use the “additional athlete quota” (see paragraph 3 below) to complete their Team.
JPN: 2 additional Athlete Quota for Ice Dance (2 Athletes)
FRA: 2 additional Athlete Quota for Pair Skating (2 Athletes)
GBR: 1 additional Athlete Quota for Men

b* KOR and POL are considered as an incomplete, qualified Team. However, since the five (5) “additional athlete quota” are given first to the best-ranked incomplete Teams (see a* above), KOR and POL cannot complete their Team. Should any of the higher-ranked incomplete Teams either earn a new entry spot to the Individual Event due to a replacement or not make use of the “additional athletes quota”, the remaining quota(s) would be given first to the best ranked incomplete Team (KOR, then POL).

x* These NOCs (GER, KAZ, SUI, BEL, HUN, FIN, ESP, EST, AUS, LTU, SVK, CZE, UKR, ISR) are ranked among the top Teams but do not fulfill the requirement to have an entry in at least 3 competitions/disciplines of the Individual Events. Consequently, they are not considered as a Team. However, should a late replacement be needed and one of these NOC will earn a new entry spot for an Individual Event which results in having entries in 3 competitions/disciplines, the Team would qualify and therefore, the last Team currently qualified (10. POL) would no longer be qualified for the Team Event.

The NOCs of the qualified Teams announced as per paragraph 1 above, are requested to confirm their participation by email on or before December 11, 2025 (noon CET) to the ISU Office.

 

[Sylvia]

Do they have to decide on the whole team before the competition begins or they can decide on the replacements after the SP?

6. Exchange of a Skater/Couple between the SP/RD and FS/FD of the Team Event
In principle, the Skater/Couple competing in the Free Skating/Free Dance Team Event must be the same as those having competed in the Short Program/Rhythm Dance Team Event; however, each Team has the option to replace up to two (2) entries (two Single skaters or one Single Skater (Woman or Men) plus one Couple (Pair Skating or Ice Dance) or both the Pair Skating and Ice Dance Couples) between the SP/RD and the FS/FD provided such qualified Skaters/Couples are part of the accredited delegation on site of the OWG. Basically, the option of an exchange is only given to Teams, who have more than one qualified Skater/Couple for the individual Events(s). Any exchange within the Team Event (after the SP/RD) has no consequences on the participation of such Skaters in the Individual Events.

 

[Andrea82]

Do they have to decide on the whole team before the competition begins or they can decide on the replacements after the SP?

After SP

For the 5 Teams qualified for the Free Skating/Free Dance Team Event, the NOCs/ISU Members must declare the Ice Dance competing for Ice Dance FD Team Event immediately (latest about 10 minutes) after the conclusion of the Men SP Team Event.

February 7, 2026 – 21:15 Nomination by name of the Skaters participating in the Ice Dance FD Team Event.

February 7, 2026 – 23:00 Nomination by name of the Skaters participating in the Women Single Skating FS, Men Single Skating FS and Pair Skating FS Team Event

 

[kwanfan1818]

They don’t have to announce exchanges, if any, until right after the RD/SP, although they have to submit the set of potential competitors earlier, and choose participants from among them, but, for the most part, the Federations announce their exchanges publicly before the Olympics anyway. Athletes will have it on their social media, and press will ask, as when Hubbell/Donohue clarified that there would be an Ice Dance split with Chock/Bates in 2022, after the Shibutanis, as the top-ranked team in the second-strongest discipline in 2018, chose to do both segments in PyeongChang.

 

[Braulio]

USA Could be

Men: Ilia Short, Jason Free
Women: Alysa Liu both segments
Pairs: Whoever qualifies as Natl Champion both segments
Dance: Chock/Bates RD, Zingas/Kolesnik FD

Gold is not that locked, part of me thinks that they could go with Chock/Bates doing both segments to prevent any damage that Pairs could cause where the Americans will lose valuable points to Japan in the SP and have a problem and level the points field between them, no matter how low the Japanese dance couple will place in the Rhythm Dance and potentially the 5th guarantee place in the Free

If they decide to let Chock/Bates both segments, then Alysa/Amber will do ladies with Gleen getting the free skate

 

[Coco]

I may start a petition to move this event to the end.

 

[kwanfan1818]

It is the most telegenic of all of the figure skating events, with the team getups, and they could sell the strategic element if which team is stronger than which in which event, and how the current standings will shift, how they did in the individual event vs. now,etc. Like a sports event, with the judging going a layer back of the spectacle.

 

[Tinycities]

USA Could be

Men: Ilia Short, Jason Free
Women: Alysa Liu both segments
Pairs: Whoever qualifies as Natl Champion both segments
Dance: Chock/Bates RD, Zingas/Kolesnik FD

Gold is not that locked, part of me thinks that they could go with Chock/Bates doing both segments to prevent any damage that Pairs could cause where the Americans will lose valuable points to Japan in the SP and have a problem and level the points field between them, no matter how low the Japanese dance couple will place in the Rhythm Dance and potentially the 5th guarantee place in the Free

If they decide to let Chock/Bates both segments, then Alysa/Amber will do ladies with Gleen getting the free skate

If they really want team gold, then chock/bates don’t split, but 4 programs in 6 days (3 in the first 4) is a lot for any team, let alone a team in their 30s.

 

[Karen-W]

USA Could be

Men: Ilia Short, Jason Free
Women: Alysa Liu both segments
Pairs: Whoever qualifies as Natl Champion both segments
Dance: Chock/Bates RD, Zingas/Kolesnik FD

Gold is not that locked, part of me thinks that they could go with Chock/Bates doing both segments to prevent any damage that Pairs could cause where the Americans will lose valuable points to Japan in the SP and have a problem and level the points field between them, no matter how low the Japanese dance couple will place in the Rhythm Dance and potentially the 5th guarantee place in the Free

If they decide to let Chock/Bates both segments, then Alysa/Amber will do ladies with Gleen getting the free skate

Ehhhhhh... I think it's pretty certain that KamO will do the pairs segments and while the US will certainly give up points in the TE Pairs SP, they're not going to give up nearly as many as YoMori will in the TE RD segment. It most likely will come out as a wash between the two disciplines and the points each country gives away. The bigger weakness is Brown in the FS. If his skating is more like fall 2025 than Worlds 2025, then the USA is in trouble. And even if he is closer to his Worlds form than this fall's form, he may still very well lose the FS to Sato, Grassl & Aymoz. Those are the points that we aren't likely to make up with the women or Ilia in the SP.

 

[Karen-W]

If they really want team gold, then chock/bates don’t split, but 4 programs in 6 days (3 in the first 4) is a lot for any team, let alone a team in their 30s.

The USA can win TE gold without ChoBat doing both segments. Some of it will depend, though, on which countries make the TE FS/FD segment and also whether or not different countries choose to exchange teams in the Pairs & Dance segments of the TE.

 

[Karen-W]

I've seen confirmations from the following federations that they will be competing in the TE -

British Ice Skating
FFSG
Polish FSA
Georgian FSF
USFS (commented on the ISU's IG announcement)
Skate Canada (commented on the ISU's IG announcement)

 

[Tinycities]

The USA can win TE gold without ChoBat doing both segments. Some of it will depend, though, on which countries make the TE FS/FD segment and also whether or not different countries choose to exchange teams in the Pairs & Dance segments of the TE.

Twitter seems to have convinced themselves that there’s no way chock/bates will split the te, and I just can’t see them NOT splitting.

 

[Jammers]

Twitter seems to have convinced themselves that there’s no way chock/bates will split the te, and I just can’t see them NOT splitting.

Either Ilia or C/B are going to have to do both segments for the US to really have a chance to win. Without them the US could finish at least 4th in Men's and whatever Ice Dance team does the FD is going to be down the standings too. That puts a lot of pressure on the ladies to do well.

 

[Karen-W]

Twitter seems to have convinced themselves that there’s no way chock/bates will split the te, and I just can’t see them NOT splitting.

Well, first mistake is taking anything the FSTWidiots say seriously. A lot of them are driven by their love of Amber and want the US to split the women & men.

Though, to be honest, logically, in a perfect world where ice dance was the second week of the Olympics, they'd be right because the USA needs the points ChoBat would earn in not splitting it.

 

[Tinycities]

Well, first mistake is taking anything the FSTWidiots say seriously. A lot of them are driven by their love of Amber and want the US to split the women & men.

Though, to be honest, logically, in a perfect world where ice dance was the second week of the Olympics, they'd be right because the USA needs the points ChoBat would earn in not splitting it.

I agree with all your points, especially the last bit. The RD being so close to the team event is what makes this so tough.

 

[skatingguy]

Others got their first.

 

[Sylvia]

Cross-posting (from U.S. Men's thread) to this relevant thread:

So far, it looks like the second man will be a weak link for the U.S. team, and based on how they're currently skating, it's something of a wash for whether an American man could end up better than 4th/5th in the Team event final.

Here's the SB LP scores for possible team finalist contenders

Siao Him Fa [FRA] 196.08
Grassl [ITA] 194.72
Sato [JPN] 194.02
Kagiyama [JPN] 193.64
Egadze [GEO] 179.32
Brown [USA] 171.20 [he was 180.88 at 2025 Worlds]
Sadovsky [CAN] 168.47
Aymoz [FRA] 168.41
Hiwatashi [USA] 166.64
Gogolev [CAN] 164.87
Torgashev [USA] 161.84

Japan and Italy "should" beat the second American man regardless of who he is. If Egadze hits, he "should" beat the American, too (too much technical firepower and absurdly-high PCS). Depending on which country makes the final, France on paper beats the US (but both French men are pretty mercurial) and Canada "should" lose to Brown, but both Sadovsky and Gogolev beat Brown at Finlandia so not a sure thing there.

I think the one thing we know is the men in general is they are all over the place besides Ilia. I know you pointed it out already about the French but yes Fa's PB in the FS this season is 196.08 but he has had a 136.99, 158.30, 156.49, 164.48, 180.15 and most recently 159.01.

Grassl PB 194.72 but a 155.92, 179.01, 152.76 and most recently 174.57.

It is pretty much the same the same for rest on the list. A lot of ups and downs with absolute nothing a sure thing.

 

[Karen-W]

Bringing this over from the Japanese news thread -

I'm surprised both Mone and Ami have chosen to do 4CC. Beijing is closer for them than the NA skaters, though.

For the team event, Japan cannot split dance and I can’t imagine they split pairs, so ladies and men are likely to be split (unless they don’t use all their splits, but they always have before). I think it’s likely that whichever of Ami and Mone is chosen for the team event won’t go to 4CC.

For the men, I think it is clear that Yuma should do the SP and Shun the LP. For the ladies, Kaori seems to have been stronger in the LP this year? But the SP matters more. Between Ami and Mone, Ami has much higher scoring potential, but it is also her first senior season. Mone is a reigning world medalists, but she has been up and down this season.

Part of me is wondering, with the Japanese team, if they may choose to have Kaori do both segments and split pairs instead, especially with Riku suffering from a recurring shoulder injury that causes it to become dislocated from time to time. That could explain the decision for Mone & Ami to compete at 4CCs since there's a good 3.5 week gap between 4CCs and the Olympic women's event. I know I certainly wouldn't want to put Ami in the TE SP with as hit-or-miss as her 3A is.

 

[Karen-W]

So far, it looks like the second man will be a weak link for the U.S. team, and based on how they're currently skating, it's something of a wash for whether an American man could end up better than 4th/5th in the Team event final.

Here's the SB LP scores for possible team finalist contenders

Siao Him Fa [FRA] 196.08
Grassl [ITA] 194.72
Sato [JPN] 194.02
Kagiyama [JPN] 193.64
Egadze [GEO] 179.32
Brown [USA] 171.20 [he was 180.88 at 2025 Worlds]
Sadovsky [CAN] 168.47
Aymoz [FRA] 168.41
Hiwatashi [USA] 166.64
Gogolev [CAN] 164.87
Torgashev [USA] 161.84

Japan and Italy "should" beat the second American man regardless of who he is. If Egadze hits, he "should" beat the American, too (too much technical firepower and absurdly-high PCS). Depending on which country makes the final, France on paper beats the US (but both French men are pretty mercurial) and Canada "should" lose to Brown, but both Sadovsky and Gogolev beat Brown at Finlandia so not a sure thing there.

It's looking like a Rippon decision where the second male skate, regardless of who he is, won't contribute many points to the team total.

I think the one thing we know for the men in general is they are all over the place besides Ilia. I know you pointed it out already about the French but yes Fa's PB in the FS this season is 196.08 but he has had a 136.99, 158.30, 156.49, 164.48, 180.15 and most recently 159.01.

Grassl PB 194.72 but a 155.92, 179.01, 152.76 and most recently 174.57.

It is pretty much the same the same for rest on the list. A lot of ups and downs with absolute nothing a sure thing.

I think it's pretty unlikely that ITA doesn't split the Men's TE duties, especially with Grassl coming on so strong the past month and looking like he may very well be an individual Men's medal contender. If that's the case, then the TE FS will likely be the job of either Rizzo or Memola, depending on who is on the Olympic team and I don't see either of them beating Brown.

Same goes for FRA if they make the TE FS/FD over CAN - there's no way they won't split. But, again, if that's the case, it's a coin toss as to whether or not either of Siao Him Fa or Aymoz can beat Brown.

But, yes, unless Brown's 3A is in better condition than it was during the fall season, he's a weak link for the USA's quest to defend their gold medal.

 

[her grace]

I think it's pretty unlikely that ITA doesn't split the Men's TE duties, especially with Grassl coming on so strong the past month and looking like he may very well be an individual Men's medal contender. If that's the case, then the TE FS will likely be the job of either Rizzo or Memola, depending on who is on the Olympic team and I don't see either of them beating Brown.

If Italy is contending for a medal after the SPs, I wouldn’t split men if I was Italy. Go for the team medal at home!

Same goes for FRA if they make the TE FS/FD over CAN - there's no way they won't split. But, again, if that's the case, it's a coin toss as to whether or not either of Siao Him Fa or Aymoz can beat Brown.

France splitting makes more sense as both men can be strong and because they probably won’t be near the medals based on their ladies and pairs performances.

 

[Karen-W]

If Italy is contending for a medal after the SPs, I wouldn’t split men if I was Italy. Go for the team medal at home!

On paper, you're right, but it is also going to depend on what Grassl wants to do, I think.

 

[Rukia]

On paper, you're right, but it is also going to depend on what Grassl wants to do, I think.

it's entirely possible mr. "i dedicate this skate to my haters" will want to skate both segments though lol

 

[Karen-W]

it's entirely possible mr. "i dedicate this skate to my haters" will want to skate both segments though lol

LMAO! And let's not forget how much he dislikes Matteo! He could want to do both out of spite & to keep Matteo from any Olympic medal.

 

[PRlady]

Why does he hate Matteo?

 

[Karen-W]

Why does he hate Matteo?

I think they've always been rivals and Daniel doesn't like to lose. The first time he lost to Matteo at Italian Nationals, he threw a temper tantrum in the kiss 'n cry over it.