caseyedwards
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You didn’t read it
2026 Milano-Cortina Olympics - Figure Skating Qualification
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Why not in men? Dikizhi has all the quads stable in his programa.
I'm speculating that Olympics 2026 is getting more impossible by the minute for small fed pairs who haven't scored yet in the 170s. If USA, Italy, and a Russian pair show up to the Beijing qualifier, it's pretty much game over. Also, I wonder if Germany has a shot at a third spot provided Hock/Kunk are back.
Was excited at the beginning of this season for the Crafoords and Gamez/Korovin but the numbers are not in their favor.
Was excited at the beginning of this season for the Crafoords and Gamez/Korovin but the numbers are not in their favor.
Did you watch Russian nationals? They dont need to find anyone. There are tons of skaters lining up for opportunities. You underestimated the Russian team
The USA would need 13 points or less at Worlds to potentially add a third spot. That's most likely not happening (outside shot, sure), so no added competition there.
Italy could potentially do it and then send Beccari/Guarise to the qualifier.
The math wasn't likely to be mathing for either of those teams, anyways, without significant technical progress. They were not among the qualifiers at last Worlds.
caseyedwards
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The 2018 screener Valerie fourneyron was so incredibly strict she banned people who never had any doping whatsoever and never explained any of her decisions. Banning stepaniva and bukin? Why? Banning stolbova Klimov? Why? So the screener here can just ban anyone
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caseyedwards
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You can see on the boards of the rink nationals was sponsored by sanctioned companies. It’s possible even being at the nationals will be disqualifying
Karen-W
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Germany needs a third team not named MiNiki or HocKun that is competitive and, right now, RoSchu are the only hope of that and it's a distant hope.
Also, do not forget Zhang/Huang will be at the OQE vying for a spot for China.
I'd say the chances are better for the USA getting a chance at a 3rd spot than Italy - GhiAmbr have only managed one comp this season with a clean SP & FS.
Russia & China are in a strong position to get one of the 3 pairs spots. If either the USA or Italy has a team there too, then that's who I expect to get the 3rd spot. If not... it will be a dogfight between a bunch of teams for the last spot.
You have the Germans, Japanese, Georgians, Canadians, Italians (Conti/Macii), and a healthy Hungarian team (injured now) who could all place ahead. That's 6th or maybe even 7th for the US which would shut them out of that idea real quick. Conti/Macii could hypothetically be in contention for a medal. So no, I still think Italy has the better chance.
Karen-W
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No offense, but you're wrong. This field is WAY too fluid and I count at least 13 teams capable of beating GhiAmbro if they dig themselves a big hole in the SP or fall apart in the FS as they've been doing recently.
That same statement applies, by the way, to the 13 teams capable of beating GhiAmbro - this is a very fluid field where it is going to come down to which teams skate cleanest through both phases of the competition.
MiNiki just had a German Nats well worth forgetting - 1 fall in the SP, 2 falls in the FS.
MiuKih - well, her 3T underrotation in the SP was so noticeable the Japanese judges had to give it a < just to maintain some semblance of integrity. We'll see how the FS goes later tonight.
MetBeru have yet to really deliver at an ISU Championship (see Euros, Jr Worlds & Worlds last year), and Berulava has had issues on the big stage every year he's been there, so I wouldn't bank on them going clean.
We've seen what shape SDDes are in this fall - we'll see if they look any better at Canadians in a few weeks.
ConMac beat a messy MiNiki at CoC just 4 weeks ago, then managed to look like a$$ at the GPF 2 weeks later. 'Nuff said.
The Rungarians are injured and have yet to beat KamOSh and won't beat them in Boston unless Ellie suddenly forgets how to land her SBS jumps again (not out of the realm of possibility).
Moving onto the next tier...
Whomever the US sends as it's #2 (EfiMit or ChanHowe), they're going to be inconsistent, I'm sure, however they're going to be buoyed by a hometown crowd in Boston.
HocKun - depends on how healthy she is - they're very comparable to GhiAmbro - solid enough but not in the top tier and their placement is entirely dependent on how a bunch of other highly inconsistent teams skate.
GoluGM - stagnating, but if they have a breakthrough (and fix their 3tw), they'll beat GhiAmbro.
ChtWoz - rapidly improving and I won't be surprised if they beat GhiAmbro at Euros & again at Worlds.
PerMich - see HocKun with a dash of GoluGM.
Ruzbeks - not enough data to come to a strong conclusion, but they are, like MetBeru & the Rungarians, technically proficient enough to beat a messy GhiAmbro as well as at least 2 of HocKun, GoluGM, ChtWoz and PerMich.
Oops almost forgot. So that's USA, Italy, China, and Russia aiming for Beijing. Very probable at least two will succeed and then a third spot for the likes of GB, Poland, FRA, UKR or NED?
of course "anything" can happen but it seems the hopes of anyone else outside that circle is depending on multiple other pairs to skate miserably or get injured...
Karen-W
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I think GBR, POL and NED will all earn spots outright at Worlds.
How am I wrong when Kam/O'Shea are looking at 6th at best, and potentially even 7th at best which would just shut out any other team of getting to 13 or less as it is? Teams have had rough skates this year amongst that top grouping (including the Georgians who K/O beat, but their ceiling and their GPF medal obviously favor them). Even if they do reach 6th, that means the other US team has to be 7th. And even the Hungarians would still be in there fighting, and quite strongly if they are back to 100%.
Conti/Macii being in medal contention, which they are, therefore still gives the Italians a better shot at this.
Rukia
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trying to predict spots when we know 1000 things are going to change between now and then is kind of funny tbh but i hope you're all having a good time
Karen-W
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And I'm telling you that I believe Kam/O'Shea are going to finish no worse than 5th. One of those teams you believe will beat them (Hase/Volodin, Miu/Kihara, Metelkina/Berulava, Conti/Macii, Stellato-Dudek/Deschamps) will falter and the USFS is pushing hard for KamOSh.
Just because ConMac have a stronger chance of medaling does NOT mean that Italy has a better shot at earning 13 points or less - not when GhiAmbro's downside is much worse than the downside the US has with either EfiMit or ChanHowe as our #2.
I don't know that I think either the USA or Italy have a particularly good chance at earning 13 points or less, but I think the chances of the USA teams finishing 5th & 8th are greater than the chances of Italy's teams finishing 3rd & 10th.
I can't really argue with someone who writes paragraphs of hypotheticals and says I'm wrong for looking at stats throughout the year so far to suggest Italy has a better shot.
For all I know, by Worlds you might be back to writing paragraphs about how Kam/O'Shea are getting gifts and/or will be outside the top 10.
Karen-W
YMCA is such a catchy tune!
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LMAO - oh, I totally think Kam/O'Shea are getting gifts, but they're skating better than any other US team currently competing, so they're going to get a big push in Boston. I also think their programs are better/more accessible to a mostly North American audience than the Georgians and Rungarians.I can't really argue with someone who writes paragraphs of hypotheticals and says I'm wrong for looking at stats throughout the year so far to suggest Italy has a better shot.
For all I know, by Worlds you might be back to writing paragraphs about how Kam/O'Shea are getting gifts and/or will be outside the top 10.
yup it's the Christmas break boredom
The skating gods will surely shine upon KamOShea in Boston. If Efimova manages two clean triples in the competition (I think she's only done it twice in her life), it could well be a third spot for USA.
I have absolutely loved watching Poland this season and really hope they get their spot at Worlds.
kwanfan1818
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About the location, why would anyone else have wanted to host this event, without incentives, like do this and you'll get the next available Worlds, do this, and we'll give you a pile of money? Aside from Hungary, with pro-Putin Orban? Who has local skaters that would drum up enough $$$ to make it worthwhile, even without considerations of the Russian and Belorussian return? Nebelhorn is gonna Nebelhorn, regardless of whether the OQ is there. (For one Olympics in memory, it was held in Austria before going back to Nebelhorn.)
If they even considered that Paris meant the writing on the wall was to let "neutral" athletes back in, they may have backed off.
China is the perfect host, because they'll need to qualify skaters, it is long and expensive to get to, the government wouldn't allow people to protest, even if they put up the $$$ to get there specifically to protest, and Russians and Belorussians have no problem for entry.
If they even considered that Paris meant the writing on the wall was to let "neutral" athletes back in, they may have backed off.
China is the perfect host, because they'll need to qualify skaters, it is long and expensive to get to, the government wouldn't allow people to protest, even if they put up the $$$ to get there specifically to protest, and Russians and Belorussians have no problem for entry.
caseyedwards
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It’s not even clear if the skaters who qualify will have a passport to go to China so it’s silly to presume that
To successfully apply for the China Tourist Visa, Russian citizens will need the following: Valid passport: Your passport must be valid for at least six months from your intended entry date into China and have at least two blank pages.
So as any participant at this years nationals is ineligible you are talking about skaters who may not have a passport
Speaking of the Italians, GhilAmbro just had a solid SP and a rough FS at nationals. Maybe they'll get a reset over Christmas. They've done seven competitions this first half of the season. Also, I'm just realizing that their only really consistent jump is a 2A. That's a lot of weight that 2A is pulling.
I think this will be the first time I watch Worlds and crunch numbers at the same time lol.
SidelineSkater
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Like several other pairs teams, Rebecca and Filippo are recovering from injury. They still have the 8th highest score to date this season (from a higher scoring Lombardia Trophy). Even with their inconsistency and 2A's, they still have top 8-10 potential.
Despite the home worlds 'boost', I think Italy has a better chance of having the lower combined placement compared to USA. Likely a Italy with 4/8-9 to get to 13, rather than USA getting a 6/7, or 5/8.
There's definitely a top five pack, then two teams, then another seven bunched together.
Despite the home worlds 'boost', I think Italy has a better chance of having the lower combined placement compared to USA. Likely a Italy with 4/8-9 to get to 13, rather than USA getting a 6/7, or 5/8.
There's definitely a top five pack, then two teams, then another seven bunched together.
the "two teams" being KamOShea and the Hungarians?
I could see the Hungarians peaking at Worlds and pushing down ITA and USA.
All the little federations would rejoice.
Karen-W
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Not with their wooden performance skills during competition. They'll put the crowd in Boston to sleep.the "two teams" being KamOShea and the Hungarians?
I could see the Hungarians peaking at Worlds and pushing down ITA and USA.
All the little federations would rejoice.
How hard is it for the government to issue a passport?
Karen-W
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It's best to ignore that poster.
It shouldn't be that hard for Russia to make sure that all of the skaters nominated have valid passports issued at least 6 months before the OQE.
caseyedwards
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It’s not difficult but it could take time. And then China demands it be good for 6 months before entry! But of course Russia is not likely to do a pre screening so they will nominate people who do have passports but are guaranteed to be rejected. And then no Russians will be in China anyway. My comment was supposing Russia did a pre screening which they won’t do.
Like you know anyone who is going to be nominated participated in a Channel One show.
You are wrong about the Russian government. If they want passports be made. It will be done instantly
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It’s funny, I was hoping Zing/Kol would get the third American spot because I like them as ice dancers. Now I hope they’re at Boston Worlds so Vadym can make his points to the media there.
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