The Dance Hall 10: The Saitama Samba 2022-2023

[guignardfabbri]

I could see Chock/Bates sticking around for the Olympics. They didn't have great Olympic memories in 18, and a slip in the RD in 22 took them out of bronze contention (realistically they and H/D were fighting for 3rd, despite both teams winning their segments in the team event). I think they want that medal. Considering they had a late start to the season and had to rework and re-market their FD this year, they were able to rise to the top. I think all three World medalists see themselves as podium contenders in the dance event, and quite possibly all in the hunt for a team medal. If C/B stay around and medal in both, they'll be tied for the most Olympic medals for a US ice dance team. And could possibly end up with the most World medals too for US dance.

I know there's a huge buzz around here that Fear/Gibson are being pushed up for a World/Olympic podium, but I think they're peaking at top 5 teams - unless any of the top 3 retire/don't compete.

Will be interesting to see how it all shakes out in three years!

I don't think there is anyway all 3 of the current top 3 for the next Games, with Gilles & Poirier do the most likely to choose not to. I base that just on all their own comments, and that they decided very late to even compete this season, not their physical ability to do it or anything. I would just be very surprised if mentally they have it in to stay that long. I agree Chock & Bates might stay for the next Games, although I don't think it is as certain as you do. I don't think any of the 3 are certain but order of likelihood would be Guignard & Fabbri > Chock & Bates > Gilles & Poirier.

Anyway if all 3 make it I would be very surprised. Fear & Gibson's scores are rising at a ridiculous level IMO. Their GOE imparticular are absurd, plus their PCS in certain areas like skating skills. So even if the top 3 all stayed it is unlikely they could all hold them off. I don't think they in anyway deserved to beat Fournier Beaudry & Sorensen at this years worlds yet they did. I felt awful for Fournier Beaudry & Sorensen at worlds this year, there is even a case they skated better than Gilles & Poirier, atleast in the RD part, so to finish behind Fear & Gibson was a slap in the face. I think there is a huge political push behind them and they are going to be on the podium sooner rather than later, whether through teams retiring (likely anyway IMO) or just passing some of them. Plus they are still young and talented so will likely legitimately improve further in some areas, in addition to the obvious huge politicing and push behind them.

 

[clairecloutier]

I guess I don’t understand why international judges have to “decide” between the second-tier American teams. Why can’t they all just be good and continue to progress? Fortunately with all the opportunities in Challenger Series and also Grand Prix events, they can all continue to get a lot of exposure internationally. Although obviously spots on the Nationals podium and on the 4CCs/World team are limited.

I’m still quite bummed that Wolfkostin/Chen split, but looking forward to seeing what the other teams can do next season, especially Bratti/Somerville and Flores/Desyatov.

 

[yurokis40]

Chock and bates might as well retire now they won`t be IAM`s top team heading into the next olympics, LALA will be easily the brits and lilah fear might not like it but they are already technically sound team , Never seen Marjorie kiss the ice with her butt like Chock did lol.

 

[On My Own]

Chock/Bates received extra marks for kissing ice with butt

 

[TanithandBenFan]

Chock and bates might as well retire now they won`t be IAM`s top team heading into the next olympics, LALA will be easily the brits and lilah fear might not like it but they are already technically sound team , Never seen Marjorie kiss the ice with her butt like Chock did lol.

Marjorie wishes she could kiss the ice with her butt with as much fantastic glamour as Chock did.

 

[Wyliefan]

"[Name] has kissed the ice with their butt" would have been a fantastic rep level, back in the day.

 

[morqet]

I think C/B are more aware than most teams that being on the top of the pile at the start of an Olympic cycle doesn't mean you'll still be there at the end. They've won a world championship, two other world medals, multiple US champs and should have an Olympic team medal soon. Evan will be 37 by the time of the 2026 Games & would be in his 18th season as a senior. I think they are much more likely to peace out on a high now than keep pushing on for no guaranteed reward.

 

[skatingguy]

I think C/B are more aware than most teams that being on the top of the pile at the start of an Olympic cycle doesn't mean you'll still be there at the end. They've won a world championship, two other world medals, multiple US champs and should have an Olympic team medal soon. Evan will be 37 by the time of the 2026 Games & would be in his 18th season as a senior. I think they are much more likely to peace out on a high now than keep pushing on for no guaranteed reward.

3 - silver in 2015, bronze in 2016, 2022

 

[Tesla]

Chock/Bates received extra marks for kissing ice with butt

She never cracked. They just carried on as if nothing happened. I thought that was amazing. A lot of teams would’ve struggled a bit to get back to or stay in character. They wanted that medal.

 

[ice coverage]

I guess I don’t understand why international judges have to “decide” between the second-tier Americzn teams. Why can’t they all just be good and continue to progress? Fortunately with all the opportunities in Challenger Series and also Grand Prix events, they can all continue to get a lot of exposure internationally. Although obviously spots on the Nationals podium and on the 4CCs/World team are limited. ...

No, I mean . . .

1. Do you mean improved skating?

2. Or defeating teams that have defeated those teams or finished above higher ranked teams from this season?

3. Or placing higher nationally?

4. Or placing higher at the major international level?

5. Or neither but placing better in smaller events?

My thoughts on each of these would be different. I expect the top one for both teams. I think some are very plausible. (2 & 5 for different teams). I think some are very much long shots (3 and, in part because of 3, 4) & I wouldn't describe those two as on my expectation list at all; but I'm curious what your definition of "upward trajectory" is because I think it could lead to an interesting conversation. Obviously a whole lot comes down to what Chock & Bates and Hawayek & Baker decide to do in their careers.

I strongly agree with Claire.

Maybe this whole conversation belongs in the U.S. Dance thread, but I will respond to Dobre with Yes to Item 1, improved skating.
Re 2, 3, 4, 5, just a few inconclusive thoughts:
I don't have any litmus tests for how improved skating "should" manifest in terms of results at different types of events. Especially with the uncertainty of if/when C/B and H/B will compete again .
You and Karen already have alluded to Z/K guaranteeing their GP debut next season. Regardless of placement, I am optimistic that they will be ready to make a favorable impression on a larger international stage (than Golden Spin), which would contribute to an upward trajectory, for example. (With more Challenger medals hopefully in their future too.)
Given that C/P already debuted at Worlds -- taking themselves from alternates to Top Ten finish -- stepping onto a larger stage next season is not applicable to them. Partially depending on external factors, simply getting to Worlds again could be quite an achievement unto itself and a sign of an upward trajectory, for example.

 

[Sylvia]

Zach Donohue's latest Instagram stories (20+ hours ago) show he is in China right now with Patrice Lauzon & the second one is captioned "My playground for the next two weeks."

 

[sap5]

Zach Donohue's latest Instagram stories (20+ hours ago) show he is in China right now with Patrice Lauzon & the second one is captioned "My playground for the next two weeks."

What are they doing there? I'm out of the loop.

 

[Debbie S]

What are they doing there? I'm out of the loop.

I would assume giving seminars/lessons.

 

[Dobre]

Maybe this whole conversation belongs in the U.S. Dance thread, but I will respond to Dobre with Yes to Item 1, improved skating.

Well we agree on this so I have nothing interesting to say about it.

For anyone wishing to watch where Zingas & Kolesnik come out next season compared to this within the ice dance hierarchy, they only competed in one international, but it was a big one. Golden Spin. And they finished between Reed & Ambrulevicius and Kazakova & Reviya. Also behind Carreira & Ponomarenko there & at Nationals. That would--I figure--imply that Z&K could be competitive with the teams currently finishing around 11th & 12th at Worlds. Muramoto & Takahashi and Lopareva & Brissaud.

So . . . I will be watching that on next year's GP. To see if Zingas & Kolesnik actually are competitive with those teams and Kazakova & Reviya or teams that have split or lost to those teams this season. I always think the head-to-heads are the most interesting way to follow where all the teams are. And, of course, the GP is the tougher field of play, as during the early CS events a lot of teams aren't ready yet.

But with such a new team, I don't really have those kind of expectations. I just think Z&K need to get out there. They need to experience competition in all kinds of scenarios. Disappointments. Successes. Pressure when there ultimately are real expectations. And preferably, the ability to heed where everyone else is on the ice during a warm-up.

I don't know if Muramoto & Takahashi will continue. I think they can. Kana is a wonderful ice dancer and she is only just getting back into the sport at the level where she left it when Muramoto & Reed split. Takahashi has, obviously, had a full career. And he also, obviously, missed the competitive side of the sport. This was a great set of performances at a home Worlds. If they want to be done, this would be a great cap to a career. But I do think they could do a lot for the development of ice dance in Japan and, therefore, the growth of the overall popularity of the discipline among skating fans if they choose to continue. I've been to a lot of skating events where the Japanese fans decided to take their meal breaks during the dance event. But here, at this Worlds in Japan, the audience for the dance event was fab! And I think it was so great for the teams to have the audience come alive for the upbeat ending portions of their programs, etc.

Lopareva & Brissaud, as we've mentioned, could have done better than they did at Worlds. It would be no small thing for Z&K to defeat them next season, but they may never even go head-to-head. Z&K will, OTOH, go head to head with all those other U.S. dance teams and I'd guess quite a bit.

Chock & Bates are an open question mark to me. They won the World title, and last spring I figured that was good motivation for them to compete this season. On the other hand, they might be looking at the field right now, asking themselves how cool it would be to compete for an Olympic gold medal, discussing how much they love the sport, and decide to keep going.

The two teams I'm more concerned about continuing at this stage are Wang & Liu and Hawayek & Baker. This seems to have been a really rough season, healthwise, for both teams. Hoping they can come back healthy, motivated, & dedicated; but only if that's the right decision for them.

If Stepanova & Bukin return to major international competition, that will change the dynamic at the top; but how it will do so is a really open question at this point & the teams currently competing might as well set their own game plans & goals & let the future play out in real competitions.

 

[kwanfan1818]

I don't expect Papadakis/Cizeron to come back, but they might look at the field around Fall 2025 and decide to wet their feet at Euros and then decide to come back the next year. Chock/Bates and anyone else who stays in because they think the fields are weak enough might find themselves having spent a few years chasing down an unlikely dream.

 

[Dobre]

An Olympic dance medal of any kind would be an Olympic dream for any of the three current top teams.

 

[Karen-W]

I don't see PapCiz coming back. They're quite enjoying life and I can't see them being lured back to competition.

 

[chantilly]

I don’t follow Pap/Ciz so I really don’t have any idea grounded in what they are doing right now.
But it’d be a cakewalk for them with the dummed down tech of dance.
But yeah I for whatever reason don’t see it.

 

[coralline]

I would assume giving seminars/lessons.

Yes there is a seminar for junior ice dancers. The referee at Worlds, Ms. Ingrid Charlotte WOLTER is also invited.

 

[yurokis40]

Hello My american friends our 16 year old phenom Summer Macintosh has just pulverized the world record in the 400 free at canadian trials your Hero Kaitie Ledecky might as well retire now and not even swim next yearin paris lol.

 

[Sylvia]

Is Katie Ledecky an ice dancer? Summer's older sister is a pair skater, in case you didn't know.

ETA - here you go:

Swimming & Diving thread

2022 FINA WORLD AQUATICS CHAMPIONSHIPS, June 18-25, 2022 (pool swimming) in Budapest, Hungary: https://www.fina.org/competitions/2902/19th-fina-world-championships-budapest-2022 Katie Ledecky "has reclaimed her gold medal in the 400 freestyle. Despite not taking back her World Record from...

www.fsuniverse.net

 

[Sylvia]

Yes there is a seminar for junior ice dancers. The referee at Worlds, Ms. Ingrid Charlotte WOLTER is also invited.

Thanks! Is this an ISU-sponsored seminar?

There's an ISU Ice Dance Development Training Seminar for Junior Ice Dance Couples and their Coaches in Oberstdorf, Germany from April 20-28, 2023: https://www.isu.org/inside-isu/isu-communications/communications/30324-isu-communication-2529/file

 

[coralline]

Thanks! Is this an ISU-sponsored seminar?

There's an ISU Ice Dance Development Training Seminar for Junior Ice Dance Couples and their Coaches in Oberstdorf, Germany from April 20-28, 2023: https://www.isu.org/inside-isu/isu-communications/communications/30324-isu-communication-2529/file

I’m not sure… it seems only a CFSA senimar.

http://www.cfsa.com.cn/cfsa_portal/html/new1.html?newsId=2068671&newsTypeId=5

And There is a senimar for judges at the same time（Wenjing Sui, Cong Han, Yang Jin and Xun Zheng listed as participants). Ms. Wolter is giving lessons at this senimar as well.
http://www.cfsa.com.cn/cfsa_portal/html/new1.html?newsId=2117300&newsTypeId=5

 

[guignardfabbri]

The current situation is super interesting, as all of the top 5 teams minus Fear & Gibson are getting pretty old. Least of those 4 being Gilles & Poirier, but they are the ones with the biggest question marks about motivation to continue. So a huge question of ho much of the current top 5 (minus Fear & Gibson) even hang in for 2026, and the ones that do if they are even still in good enough shape and up there or not. It will be interesting to follow particularly the top 3 teams, if they stay, and how much of contention any of the ones who do stay even are by 2026.

Fear & Gibson already seem like the anointed ones by the ISU for the next Games but we will see.

Then you have the younger teams like Green & Parsons, Lajoie & Lagha, Taschlerova & Taschler, and if they return Hawayek & Baker, who are already making their way up nicely. Green & Parsons were a strong 6th at worlds this year, and Lajoie & Lagha who have been outscoring them all season likely would have been in that spot instead had they been at worlds, so can already be expected to do very well next year.

Then the question if anyone returns but I think that is very unlikely. Papdakis & Cizeron are the only small chances, and I think even they are a long shot.

Anyway this is the first quad ever I can think of in ice dance where almost all the top 5 were near retirement age/point already, and a question to how many will even last the quad. It will make it super interesting how it plays out from here.

It could be my personal bias but I do think of the oldish teams Guignard & Fabbri are the most likely to stay in for 2026 (mostly because it is a home Olympics, not sure this would be the case otherwise), and probably followed by Fournier Beaudry & Sorensen. I think the Danadians though it is mostly whether they have an opening to be Canadian #1 for 2026. So essentialy I only see them staying for 2026 if both Gilles & Poirier retire by then, and if they can stay ahead of Lajoie & Lagha, and both of those things happening might not be great odds for them. I think they know they have no real realistic chance of big medals until they are Canadian #1.

 

[guignardfabbri]

I could see Chock/Bates sticking around for the Olympics. They didn't have great Olympic memories in 18, and a slip in the RD in 22 took them out of bronze contention (realistically they and H/D were fighting for 3rd, despite both teams winning their segments in the team event). I think they want that medal. Considering they had a late start to the season and had to rework and re-market their FD this year, they were able to rise to the top. I think all three World medalists see themselves as podium contenders in the dance event, and quite possibly all in the hunt for a team medal. If C/B stay around and medal in both, they'll be tied for the most Olympic medals for a US ice dance team. And could possibly end up with the most World medals too for US dance.

I know there's a huge buzz around here that Fear/Gibson are being pushed up for a World/Olympic podium, but I think they're peaking at top 5 teams - unless any of the top 3 retire/don't compete.

Will be interesting to see how it all shakes out in three years!

I could see that too. My gut is Chock & Bates won't make it to 2026, but Madison imparticular loves to compete so much. I don't think Evan would want it on his own, but I could see him doing it for her. Pending other circumstances, if they stay on top, and a number of variables. If I were to guess I would say they are less likely than Guignard & Fabbri, more likely than Gilles & Poirier, and around the same as Fournier Beaudry & Sorensen to make it to 2026.

 

[Dobre]

Who is on the ice dance technical committee? Is there a list of the members?

----

As far as I can tell, there is no one pushing the top 3 teams out. They can & may move on with their lives if they want; but the full Olympic podium appears to have cleared.

As kwanfan pointed out, that may not ultimately be the case; but it seems entirely possible. As far as I can tell, the last & only time a full Olympic dance podium didn't return for the next Olympic Games was 1984. (Is that accurate? Did none of the 1980 podium compete?) Fusar-Poli & Margaglio did not make the podium in 2006, but they were there. Ditto with Belbin & Agosto in 2010.

Last year, there was a lot of discussion about whether Sinitsina & Katsalapov would keep going. Some of us were pretty doubtful because of his injuries, but S/K were claiming they would continue. That possibility seems kaput.

----

We've discussed the potential impact of the Montreal Worlds being in Montreal and the upcoming Olympics being in Italy.

Reminder that the 2025 Worlds is in Boston.

And 2026 in Prague.

 

[guignardfabbri]

Even if the Russian ban were lifted by the next Games with time off already and back problems already, it would be stunning if Sinitsina & Katsalapov returned at this point. I would say a Papadakis & Cizeron return, while still probably unlikely, is far more likely than that happening now.

Now if the Russian ban were lifted by the next Games I could for sure see a Stepanova & Bukin return, but totally unlike Sinitsina & Katsalapov they never made the big breakthrough as it was already, and with lots of time away from the international scene, and never being a world medalist previous, can't see them figuring in at all, and would probably be slotted behind a bunch of younger teams they used to beat.

 

[Sylvia]

Who is on the ice dance technical committee? Is there a list of the members?

Ice Dance - International Skating Union

The International Skating Union is the international sport federation administering Ice Skating sports throughout the world.

www.isu.org

Shawn Rettstatt (USA) Chair
Hilary Selby (GBR)
David Molina (FRA)
Ingrid Charlotte Wolter (GER)

Kaitlyn Weaver (CAN) Appointed Skater
Alper Uçar (TUR) Appointed Coach

 

[litenkyckling]

Even if the Russian ban were lifted by the next Games with time off already and back problems already, it would be stunning if Sinitsina & Katsalapov returned at this point. I would say a Papadakis & Cizeron return, while still probably unlikely, is far more likely than that happening now.

Now if the Russian ban were lifted by the next Games I could for sure see a Stepanova & Bukin return, but totally unlike Sinitsina & Katsalapov they never made the big breakthrough as it was already, and with lots of time away from the international scene, and never being a world medalist previous, can't see them figuring in at all, and would probably be slotted behind a bunch of younger teams they used to beat.

If Russians are allowed I think Stepanova Bukin will make a breakthrough now that they’ve made the move to Zhulin

 

[On My Own]

our 16 year old phenom Summer Macintosh

Who?

By the way, isn't Justin Bieber Canadian？