Articles confirming new Chinese pairs Yu/Zhang and Peng/Jin

[Karpenko]

she should have won 3 OGMs by now.

Preach it.

Apologies for going OT and the rant directed at your Aljona rant, I was feeling feisty and wanted to put Aljona on a pedestal this morning because the woman should be a 3-time OGM by now. with her name engraved somewhere on the medal/stitched into the ribbon, even if she doesn't win the OGM next time people will still remember who it should've gone to.

(So it was Hongbo? That makes me I still love Shen/Zhao forever, even if Aljona really should've won that Olympics as one of her 3 OGM's)

 

[Spun Silver]

I hope some kind person can do a translation of that TV piece for us. It was quite long. The CSA must be unhappy with all the bad PR they've gotten. It looks to me like Yu and Zhang are skating well together. Their 3 Twist was high and the lifts look great. I would like to think that, if this switch was forced on her, that at least she can make the best of it. Happiness, best revenge.... If possible.

 

[feraina]

I don't have time for a full translation. But let's see...

Yu said she was initially really shocked. Her mind was blank. It was so different from what she had planned for the future. At first she was scared, and really upset, and could only follow instructions as she was told. As she read comments by the fans, she started feeling even worse. Only after getting the choreography did she start to feel a little bit of hope, a bit of confidence to try to do her best and improve. She said she still feels very scared. Too scared to think about the future. Even her voice sounded shaky toward the end.

Zhang kept saying it's every Chinese athlete's responsibility to do whatever it takes to do well at the home olympics. He talks not only as if he's only doing this for his country, but everyone else should do the same, i.e. be as hard working and selfless. (Oh the irony!)

Zhao said the idea came up half a year ago (obviously not shared with Yu given her shocked reaction), but he didn't say whose idea it was. (Chinese lets you be ambiguous like that; though if he wanted to he could've easily referred to it as 'my idea' or 'our idea', but he chose not to.... Anyway it does seem like he was at least part of the decision making process that resulted in this outcome.)

Zhao mentioned something about the choreographers (Nichol and Wilson), he tried to imply that they approved of the partner swapping. Though I think what he actually said was that they 'understand' why the swapping was done, and that the new choreography will be a big change in style from the previous pairs.

He discussed how Peng and Zhang weren't a good match for example their age difference (as though Yu is any closer in age!). In fact, the reporter said she's not yet 20 (in contradiction to her ISU data). Zhao also said Peng was under a lot of pressure with Zhang, but may relax and skate better with Yang.

Zhao also repeated several times that there's no choice but to make the swap.

No discussion of Jin at all.

The narrator states at one point that there's no guarantee that this swap will achieve good result, that only time and result can eventually demonstrate if it was a good decision. (Not a very optimistic/confident tone.) she then says but this is necessary to achieve the best results in 2022.

Zhang concludes the report by saying how it is not only the responsibility but the duty of every athlete to do their utmost to achieve the best results in 2022.

-----

Sorry if it wasn't completely accurate, detailed, or in order. I'm just going by what I remember. I did notice that Yu 2fted almost every throw jump. She used to have this issue with Yang after she grew taller, but they worked it out eventually. The twist was indeed impressive. But P/Z had a good twist too.

 

[feraina]

I just listened to it again and fixed a few small things above.

Very disappointed with the whole thing. Zhao comes off as unwise and Zhang as a hypocrite. And poor Yu just looks miserable but trying her best to be positive.

 

[Spun Silver]

Thanks so much, feraina. It sounds like a strange interview. The length and the speeches by Hongbo and Hao seem designed to counter the bad PR the switch has received. But some of Xiaoyu's comments (including the mention of the upset fans), the ridiculous lie about her more suitable age which I am sure Chinese fans will notice, and the narrator's trace of doubt dont quite fit the official picture. One thing I didnt notice until this interview is that all the emphasis seems to be on 2022 (so insane, but at least it seems Sui/Han will get their crack at 2018, if she's OK). A faint ray of light is that apparently it wasnt necessarily Hongbo's idea, as first suggested, so we can hope there is an internal crack in the "necessity" justification.

I'm not getting excited about Yu/Zhang, and I saw the 2-footed throw jumps. But it does look like she's making a big effort and I want to support her. I wonder if she can handle the sheer pressure of now being China's hope for future Olympic gold.

 

[barbarafan]

I don't have time for a full translation. But let's see...

Yu said she was initially really shocked. Her mind was blank. It was so different from what she had planned for the future. At first she was scared, and really upset, and could only follow instructions as she was told. As she read comments by the fans, she started feeling even worse. Only after getting the choreography did she start to feel a little bit of hope, a bit of confidence to try to do her best and improve. She said she still feels very scared. Too scared to think about the future. Even her voice sounded shaky toward the end.

Zhang kept saying it's every Chinese athlete's responsibility to do whatever it takes to do well at the home olympics. He talks not only as if he's only doing this for his country, but everyone else should do the same, i.e. be as hard working and selfless. (Oh the irony!)

Zhao said the idea came up half a year ago (obviously not shared with Yu given her shocked reaction), but he didn't say whose idea it was. (Chinese lets you be ambiguous like that; though if he wanted to he could've easily referred to it as 'my idea' or 'our idea', but he chose not to.... Anyway it does seem like he was at least part of the decision making process that resulted in this outcome.)

Zhao mentioned something about the choreographers (Nichol and Wilson), he tried to imply that they approved of the partner swapping. Though I think what he actually said was that they 'understand' why the swapping was done, and that the new choreography will be a big change in style from the previous pairs.

He discussed how Peng and Zhang weren't a good match for example their age difference (as though Yu is any closer in age!). In fact, the reporter said she's not yet 20 (in contradiction to her ISU data). Zhao also said Peng was under a lot of pressure with Zhang, but may relax and skate better with Yang.

Zhao also repeated several times that there's no choice but to make the swap.

No discussion of Jin at all.

The narrator states at one point that there's no guarantee that this swap will achieve good result, that only time and result can eventually demonstrate if it was a good decision. (Not a very optimistic/confident tone.) she then says but this is necessary to achieve the best results in 2022.

Zhang concludes the report by saying how it is not only the responsibility but the duty of every athlete to do their utmost to achieve the best results in 2022.

-----

Sorry if it wasn't completely accurate, detailed, or in order. I'm just going by what I remember. I did notice that Yu 2fted almost every throw jump. She used to have this issue with Yang after she grew taller, but they worked it out eventually. The twist was indeed impressive. But P/Z had a good twist too.

1) Yu's real age is 18- her actual birthdate is Jan 2 1998..No one really knows how old Peng is because she only started competing internationally in 2012 and so the only date published anywhere is her date given to ISU.
2) The comments from fans made her feel worse??? was she told to say this..so her only problem is what the fans say???not what the federation did?
3) Yu is two footing the throws because he is starting off with little baby throws so she can land them. He is not throwing high or far enough for her to get around properly yet.
Hopefully he will never throw her as high and far as he threw Peng..There was too much momentum for anyone to land those and not fall after landing...

 

[clairecloutier]

Thanks @morqet for posting this clip and @feraina for translating it. Have watched it twice now.

In my gut, I feel like nothing good is going to come from this decision. Although I know that for the sake of Yu, Jin, and Peng, I should hope otherwise.

 

[jlai]

1) Yu's real age is 18- her actual birthdate is Jan 2 1998..No one really knows how old Peng is because she only started competing internationally in 2012 and so the only date published anywhere is her date given to ISU.
2) The comments from fans made her feel worse??? was she told to say this..so her only problem is what the fans say???not what the federation did?
...

Why are you questioning feelings expressed in a quote that is translated only in bits and pieces? How would anyone know what sets off an unhappy person other than the person herself?

 

[Alilou]

1) Yu's real age is 18- her actual birthdate is Jan 2 1998..No one really knows how old Peng is because she only started competing internationally in 2012 and so the only date published anywhere is her date given to ISU.
2) The comments from fans made her feel worse??? was she told to say this..so her only problem is what the fans say???not what the federation did?
3) Yu is two footing the throws because he is starting off with little baby throws so she can land them. He is not throwing high or far enough for her to get around properly yet.
Hopefully he will never throw her as high and far as he threw Peng..There was too much momentum for anyone to land those and not fall after landing...

Why should it be surprising that the fans' comments made it worse?
And why would you think it was her ONLY problem? That's a weird conclusion to come to.

 

[feraina]

Why should it be surprising that the fans' comments made it worse?
And why would you think it was her ONLY problem? That's a weird conclusion to come to.

It was the only problem she was allowed to say, or wasn't cut out of the program. Clearly that's CSA's current strategy to get the unhappy fans behind the decision. But the great majority of Chinese fans on the forums are still angry. Even angrier than before. And all this talk about bringing China glory at the olympics is not going to move any non-Chinese fans.

 

[clairecloutier]

@feraina: May I ask what was said about Savchenko/Massot in that news clip? S/M were featured somewhat prominently. Were they saying that Yu/Zhang could be the next S/M (as in, a pair that comes together very quickly to challenge for medals)? Or were they saying S/M could be some of Yu/Zhang's biggest competition?

 

[cheremary]

@feraina: May I ask what was said about Savchenko/Massot in that news clip? S/M were featured somewhat prominently. Were they saying that Yu/Zhang could be the next S/M (as in, a pair that comes together very quickly to challenge for medals)? Or were they saying S/M could be some of Yu/Zhang's biggest competition?

The former, basically that former World Champion Savchenko teamed up with a new partner two years ago and was able to get the bronze medal at this year's Worlds.

 

[barbarafan]

Why are you questioning feelings expressed in a quote that is translated only in bits and pieces? How would anyone know what sets off an unhappy person other than the person herself?

I am questioning weather or not this is Yu expressing her feelings or if she was told to say this...and yes the tape could have been edited...

 

[Xela M]

Lol this a plan for 2022?!?! And their OGM hope is on a 40/50-year-old?!

 

[Vash01]

The former, basically that 3-time World Champion Savchenko teamed up with a new partner two years ago and was able to get the bronze medal at this year's Worlds.

She is a 5-time world champion (not just 3)- I assume you are quoting someone who made this error.

It is not that unusual for a pair to win a world medal after 2 years of partnership. I think V&T won a world silver after 2 years of partnership. B&S won an Olympic silver and a world championship after 2 years of partnership.

We will have to wait and see how these newly formed pairs do in about 2 years. I am not happy about the split but it's hard to predict what the results will be a few years later. I feel sorry for the skaters who don't seem to have any control over their skating career.

 

[clairecloutier]

It is not that unusual for a pair to win a world medal after 2 years of partnership.

It's actually quite rare.

Since 2000, by my count, only 4 pairs have won World medals in their 1st or 2nd year of partnership:

2000: Petrova/Tikhonov, gold, year 2 of partnership
2001: Sale/Pelletier, gold, year 2
2011: Volosozhar/Trankov, silver, year 1
2016: Savchenko/Massot, bronze, year 2 (did not compete year 1)

So out of 51 World pairs medals in that time period (2000-2016), only 4 went to new teams, by my count.

With technical parity among pairs increasing, and with many pairs having longer careers these days, it's quite difficult for new teams to break through to the World podium. To do so these days indicates exceptional talent.

 

[jlai]

I am questioning weather or not this is Yu expressing her feelings or if she was told to say this...and yes the tape could have been edited...

No matter what she says, CSA will always be suspected of directing the interview.

Of course people and organizations care about their own image, but for pete's sake this is only sports. Of course CSA wants Yu to watch what she says. At the same time, Yu is allowed to share some of her feelings in the interview.

For those who haven't been to China, the days when people look behind their back whenever they open their mouths are 20 years ago. That doesn't mean freedom of speech exists, far from it. But people can say more things than 20 years ago without getting in trouble, esp when this is just sports

 

[Jun Y]

Below is a word for word translation of Yu Xiaoyu's interview. If I have time later I'll translate Zhao Hongbo's.

Yu Xiaoyu ---

(Sigh) Really, when the coach told me the word [to split me up], I froze for about 5 seconds. My mind went blank. I didn't know what to do. It was all an unknown. This is so far from what I had planned for myself. I was, uh, very panicked.

(Background narration skipped) (Zhang Hao's interview skipped)

(Cont'd) Actually, in Canada I broke down several times. At first, I could only follow orders. Then I thought to myself I'd give it a try. It's a change. I don't know if it's good or bad. Well, but it's a new beginning. And then, I also saw the protests and reports by skating fans on weibo and weixin (Chinese social media since sites like Twitter, Facebook and Google have been blocked by the Great Firewall), my heart kept dropping. In the end, well, I nevertheless ... When the choreography came out, I had a change of mind, I had a bit of confidence for the future. Once we came back [to China], uh, I still want to, uh, make an effort to, like the coach said, reach my full potential.

<end of interview>

I think the last sentence about "potential" implies promises made to her, probably how she can win Olympic Gold with Zhang Hao but never with Jin Yang. (Keep in mind that for athletes in China, OGM is not just OGM but paths to state-guaranteed bonuses and life-long coaching careers in the system.)

She mentioned "the coach" twice but never gave Zhao's name.

The context of the narrator's talking about Savchenko is to claim that it's common practice in international skating that pairs switch partners all the time. Look how Savchenko became successful with new partner Massot.

 

[Vash01]

No matter what she says, CSA will always be suspected of directing the interview.

Of course people and organizations care about their own image, but for pete's sake this is only sports. Of course CSA wants Yu to watch what she says. At the same time, Yu is allowed to share some of her feelings in the interview.

For those who haven't been to China, the days when people look behind their back whenever they open their mouths are 20 years ago. That doesn't mean freedom of speech exists, far from it. But people can say more things than 20 years ago without getting in trouble, esp when this is just sports

To some extent, skaters do need to watch what they say about their fed, if the fed is paying for their training. It's like what you publicly say about your employer. There are limits to that, even in the USA. However, the CSA seems to control a lot more than what the skaters say in public. They control their careers 100%. In most other countries skaters have the freedom to choose their skating partners.

 

[MsZem]

It's actually quite rare.

Since 2000, by my count, only 4 pairs have won World medals in their 1st or 2nd year of partnership

...

With technical parity among pairs increasing, and with many pairs having longer careers these days, it's quite difficult for new teams to break through to the World podium. To do so these days indicates exceptional talent.

Sale and Pelletier medalled in their third year together. They didn't compete at Worlds in 1999 due to his back problems and then missed the podium in 2000. And I think 2016 has to count as Savchenko/Massot's debut; training together as a pair is not the same as competing together.

But I don't think that's a good way to look at it to begin with - there aren't that many splits among high level skaters, or even situations like Savchenko's where only one half of a pair retires. So the pool of potential 1st year/second year elite pairs is pretty small. Many pairs start skating together at a younger age - for instance, Shen and Zhao who won six medals during this time, or Pang and Tong who won five. Neither team could have competed at Worlds in the first few years after being paired. Other pairs aren't going to challenge for a podium at any point in their career. Some skaters, having medalled soon after partnering with someone new, go on doing so in the future (e.g. Berezhnaya and Sikharulidze) - so only one of these will count as an early medal (well, two for V/T) but it's still the same pair who found success early on.

The number of existing pairs is simply larger than the number of new pairs at any given point in time, so of course it's more likely that they will win more medals. If you want a meaningful comparison, I think you have to narrow this to people who teamed up with their partners when they were age-eligible for senior Worlds, and look at the proportion of medals out of all new pairs vs. the same proportion among existing pairs. Which would be way too time-consuming

 

[feraina]

Thanks @Jun Y for the more detailed translation. I know how time-consuming these things can be! I also noticed Yu talking about "more fully realizing inner potential" in connection to the coach. I guess they've been telling her she can more fully realize her own potential skating with Zhang. This jives with something Zhao said, which I forgot to mention before: he talked about "potential" and "room for improvement" when discussing rationales for the partner swap. To me it just sounded kind of ridiculous. How is replacing Yu's successful partnership with a young guy she obviously connects great with, with an old guy obviously past his prime and without one artistic bone in his body, an improvement on "potential" and "room for improvement"? As for Zhang, come on, be realistic, does it matter whom he's paired with at this point? He's never going to improve on his Olympic silver.

Zhao used the pronoun "we/us" in discussing coaching decisions, though not specifically the "idea" of the partner swap; I don't recall him ever saying "I/me". It's not clear whether "we" refers to the coaching staff, the whole skating establishment, or the coaches+athletes. It does seem like he's speaking for everyone; but no way to guess from his comments just how much he participated in the decision-making process, whether he was the mastermind and wants to downplay his influence in this interview, or if he was just following orders but forced to speak for the whole organization anyway, or anywhere in between.

 

[Vash01]

It's actually quite rare.

Since 2000, by my count, only 4 pairs have won World medals in their 1st or 2nd year of partnership:

2000: Petrova/Tikhonov, gold, year 2 of partnership
2001: Sale/Pelletier, gold, year 2
2011: Volosozhar/Trankov, silver, year 1
2016: Savchenko/Massot, bronze, year 2 (did not compete year 1)

So out of 51 World pairs medals in that time period (2000-2016), only 4 went to new teams, by my count.

With technical parity among pairs increasing, and with many pairs having longer careers these days, it's quite difficult for new teams to break through to the World podium. To do so these days indicates exceptional talent.

It's never easy for a new team to break into the medal rankings, and it does take exceptional talent AND partnership to do that. However, the technical elements (big throws or sbs jumps) actually take less time, IMO. The finer points of pairs skating- unison, two shall skate as one, takes a lot longer. Since the emphasis now is on only the big tricks, the finer points and artistry are being ignored. That should make it relatively easy for new pairs to rise to the top.

B&S who you ignored, were extraordinary in becoming OGM favorites in less than 2 years, out of which Elena wasn't even physically 100% for the first several months of their partnership. They had amazing unison in just their second year, which was very rare. However, for a normal, physically fit pair, in these days of big tricks, usually 2 years are enough to become a viable pair. It doesn't necessarily mean a podium finish, but what I am trying to say is if the skaters are talented, it doesn't take that long to be successful.

I think Kazakova-Dmitriev also won a world bronze (1997) after their second year together. M&D split a few months after the 1994 Olympics. It took Artur some time to decide on a partner, and he chose Oksana, who was nowhere close to his level. Their first year (I think 1995-1996) was a disaster, but at the 1997 worlds they did win a bronze, and looked pretty good in the LP. Their start as a pair was extremely slow, however.

Somewhat OT:

S&M's bronze was politically motivated. It doesn't mean they cannot be successful in the future, but they were awarded way too soon, despite their egregious mistakes. They have really not become a well developed pair. The only things they had at worlds were big heights on their twist and throws, but not bigger than other pairs. As I said earlier, the judges were just dying to crown them.

 

[MsZem]

S&M's bronze was politically motivated. It doesn't mean they cannot be successful in the future, but they were awarded way too soon.They have really not become a well developed pair. The only things they had at worlds were big heights on their twist and throws, but not bigger than other pairs.

In what way was it politically motivated? S/M are not from a particularly powerful federation, they don't have big name coaches/choreographers who can politik for them. Is the argument that the judges were so happy to see Aljona back that they decided to give her a freebie medal?

To me it seemed very clear that they medalled because they skated about as well as could be expected, while other pairs did not. That's winning on merit, not due to any political motivation.

 

[feraina]

1) Yu's real age is 18- her actual birthdate is Jan 2 1998..No one really knows how old Peng is because she only started competing internationally in 2012 and so the only date published anywhere is her date given to ISU.
2) The comments from fans made her feel worse??? was she told to say this..so her only problem is what the fans say???not what the federation did?
3) Yu is two footing the throws because he is starting off with little baby throws so she can land them. He is not throwing high or far enough for her to get around properly yet.
Hopefully he will never throw her as high and far as he threw Peng..There was too much momentum for anyone to land those and not fall after landing...

I don't know that Yu's real age is 18, but it's possible she's younger than 20 (her official ISU age). On the other hand, when it was first reported four years ago that Peng & Zhang teamed up, there were media reports that she was 16 (when the ISU age was listed as 15). So these media age reports are really not very consistent...

What is clear, though, is that using P/Z having too much of an age difference to justify the Y/Z pairing really holds no water at all. Look at Yu and Zhang! It's just mind-boggling.

Also, Zhao at one point discusses how "Everyone can see, besides Sui/Han, the other two teams at the World Championship have been sliding downward (in results)", which misleadingly makes it sound like the other two teams refer to Peng/Zhang and Yu/Jin. The whole report, btw, acted like W/W don't exist -- and if they are really that irrelevant, why were they picked to go to Boston instead of Y/J, who had been out-scoring P/Z and W/W all season? In reality, it was only W/W's first WC, and they skated unusually poorly for themselves, but certainly with nothing to compare to, you can't say their results are sliding downward. And Y/J have never gotten to go to the WC at all (last year because P/T decided last minute *they* want to experience a home WC; and this year because of P/Z), so you can't say their results have been declining either. Actually, it is only P/Z whose results have been declining. They're trying to make it sound like all this is good for everyone, all the athletes, the whole country's glory, when really, the only one who benefits is Zhang, who'll get to be #2 for a bit longer having destroyed the younger Y/J who just surpassed him. Actually, he might even get to be #1 for a while, as Sui will need a long time to recover from her surgery (she said in an interview that she'll be off-ice for four months, and then she'll only get to skate a tiny bit, so they will certainly not skate in the GP, and probably also not 4CC). Given how long ago Sui's surgery was planned (six months?), this seems like particularly fortuitous timing...

 

[casken]

S&M's bronze was politically motivated.

Stop it with this shit. No it wasn't.

I was rooting for S&K to win, but they were really off in both programs.

 

[feraina]

In what way was it politically motivated? S/M are not from a particularly powerful federation, they don't have big name coaches/choreographers who can politik for them. Is the argument that the judges were so happy to see Aljona back that they decided to give her a freebie medal?

To me it seemed very clear that they medalled because they skated about as well as could be expected, while other pairs did not. That's winning on merit, not due to any political motivation.

Well, given the general fandom for Didier Gailhaguet, I could see some political motivations. Not saying that that's what I think happened, but just offering one possibility. Speaking of DG, he had the temerity in the Radiolab podcast of Bonaly to state explicitly that he made up all the stories about her exotic origin and childhood in order to get more hype & attention. Sorry for the OT comment.

Back to Y/Z, some Chinese fans are discussing what banners to display at competitions where Y/Z appear. Some suggested cheering for Y/J, but others said that would make it even more awful for Yu. Someone else suggested to only cheer for Yu, and that got some support. I think that's not a bad idea: one can directly support Yu while also expressing sympathy for her situation this way. If I could attend any competitions, I'd consider making a banner like that.

 

[Vash01]

In what way was it politically motivated? S/M are not from a particularly powerful federation, they don't have big name coaches/choreographers who can politik for them. Is the argument that the judges were so happy to see Aljona back that they decided to give her a freebie medal?

To me it seemed very clear that they medalled because they skated about as well as could be expected, while other pairs did not. That's winning on merit, not due to any political motivation.

You underestimate the power of Aliona. It's not about her fed. The German fed's power comes from its skaters. If they had many top skaters, they would become a powerful fed.
You also have to consider the venue. In the USA and Canada it's very hard for Russian pairs to get their dues, historically speaking.

The marks should not be given based on whether a skater fulfilled the expectations or not; they need to be based on what the skater actually did on the ice. If the judges had low expectations of S&M and S&M met those expectations, how does it justify giving them high marks despite major mistakes and lack of transitions in their skating?

S&K and T&M had both skated well enough- both were higher quality even with one small mistake, than S&M, but they were placed in the penultimate group for the LP, making it easy for S&M to get higher marks. S&K were very good at GPF, so they were expected to be at that level, and so they were scored lower? Their skate was strong, except for one fall. Aliona had a horrible landing on her throw (and a mistake on the sbs jump). It's not like S&M skated squeaky clean.

 

[clairecloutier]

It's never easy for a new team to break into the medal rankings, and it does take exceptional talent AND partnership to do that. B&S who you ignored

I didn't ignore B/S. They weren't within the time period I looked at. They first medaled at Worlds in 1998. I looked at 2000-2016.

Sale and Pelletier medalled in their third year together. They didn't compete at Worlds in 1999 due to his back problems and then missed the podium in 2000. And I think 2016 has to count as Savchenko/Massot's debut; training together as a pair is not the same as competing together.

Thank you for pointing that out about Sale/Pelletier. So that means only 3 new pairs medaled at Worlds in the 2000-2016 time period! (I looked at "new" pairs as in either their 1st/2nd season together--but it doesn't change the overall number of new pairs medaling if you consider S/M as in their 1st season.)

But I don't think that's a good way to look at it to begin with - there aren't that many splits among high level skaters, or even situations like Savchenko's where only one half of a pair retires.

I disagree. New pairs come together not infrequently, especially in the post-Olympic years, where there tend to be a lot of new partnerships.

Anyway ... The Chinese fed appears to hope that their new pair Yu/Zhang will medal at Worlds/Olympics by 2018. They cite Savchenko as an example. So I looked at the track record of medals from newly formed pairs in 2000-16 to assess the likelihood of this happening. It is low.

 

[MsZem]

Well, given the general fandom for Didier Gailhaguet, I could see some political motivations. Not saying that that's what I think happened, but just offering one possibility. Speaking of DG, he had the temerity in the Radiolab podcast of Bonaly to state explicitly that he made up all the stories about her exotic origin and childhood in order to get more hype & attention. Sorry for the OT comment.

That is such old news.

For all the politiking in skating, sometimes you really just have to go with Occam's razor, and conclude that it's more likely that a pair that skated well was rewarded more so than a group of judges and tech specialists decided to stick it to Didier.

I don't really have anything of interest to say regarding the actual topic of this thread

 

[feraina]

Anyway ... The Chinese fed appears to hope that their new pair Yu/Zhang will medal at Worlds/Olympics by 2018. They cite Savchenko as an example. So I looked at the track record of medals from newly formed pairs in 2000-16 to assess the likelihood of this happening. It is low.

Another way to look at it is to consider all newly formed (within 2 years) pairs attending the WC each season, and see what fraction got a medal; and then look at all pre-existing pairs, and see what fraction got a medal. And then average over the last ten years. I think that would be a more systematic comparison, to see whether in general people chance of medalling improves or deteriorates by changing partners. It's not perfect, because there may be a selection bias: e.g. the kind of people who change partners are fundamentally different from the kind of people who don't, in terms of their medalling potential. But it would be a good start. It'd be very time-consuming though.

Of course, to be more accurate one should consider all the pairs who participated in their national championships and who didn't even make it to the WC. It may be, for example, the new teams tend not to even make it to WC in the first two years (e.g. Castelli/Tran), so the stats might be skewed by only looking at WC competitors -- but it sure is less time-consuming to only look at those.