The Dance Hall 10: The Saitama Samba 2022-2023

[Karen-W]

I think Gilles/Poirier and Chock/Bates are both going to continue as well. Piper and Madi both have 80s playlists on their Spotify profiles, so they're at least brainstorming program ideas for next season.

Or they just like 80s music. I mean, older niece has had a 90s/early 00s country playlist on her Spotify/Pandora for at least 7-8 years now...

 

[litenkyckling]

Yeah I wouldn't go by a playlist - considering loads of skaters have them and more often than not they don't use the music in them.

I guess it depends on motivations - G/F don't have teams behind them so I imagine the Italian fed are desperate for them to stay for now. How much higher can C/B go now? Because I'm not convinced they will be able to win the title in Milan - not with the way some of the junior teams (and are now seniors) have been performing in recent years. With G/P they have lost all momentum. If someone had told me in December that come April they would be 15 points behind C/B I'd have laughed in their face. So what next? More years of uphill underscoring?

 

[yurokis40]

Yeah I wouldn't go by a playlist - considering loads of skaters have them and more often than not they don't use the music in them.

I guess it depends on motivations - G/F don't have teams behind them so I imagine the Italian fed are desperate for them to stay for now. How much higher can C/B go now? Because I'm not convinced they will be able to win the title in Milan - not with the way some of the junior teams (and are now seniors) have been performing in recent years. With G/P they have lost all momentum. If someone had told me in December that come April they would be 15 points behind C/B I'd have laughed in their face. So what next? More years of uphill underscoring?

Yeah I wouldn't go by a playlist - considering loads of skaters have them and more often than not they don't use the music in them.

I guess it depends on motivations - G/F don't have teams behind them so I imagine the Italian fed are desperate for them to stay for now. How much higher can C/B go now? Because I'm not convinced they will be able to win the title in Milan - not with the way some of the junior teams (and are now seniors) have been performing in recent years. With G/P they have lost all momentum. If someone had told me in December that come April they would be 15 points behind C/B I'd have laughed in their face. So what next? More years of uphill underscoring?

I don`t think Marie-France will be happy with C&B sticking around in her mind she fulfilled her contract with them got their career back on track after it looked over avec 2018. With Worlds in Canada next year they will be pressure to put a canadian team on top she seems heavily invested in the Canadanes one of their first teams plus she`s already looking ahead to 2026 with LALA and the brits as far as the junior teams coming up none of them will factor in this quad way too soon.

 

[Colonel Green]

With G/P they have lost all momentum. If someone had told me in December that come April they would be 15 points behind C/B I'd have laughed in their face. So what next? More years of uphill underscoring?

They had a rough second half last season, and then came back and had the best results of their careers. I don't think they'd be deterred there.

 

[litenkyckling]

They had a rough second half last season, and then came back and had the best results of their careers. I don't think they'd be deterred there.

Hm I don’t know - best scores are kind of irrelevant when it means you could be fighting for bronze next season.

 

[Karen-W]

I don`t think Marie-France will be happy with C&B sticking around in her mind she fulfilled her contract with them got their career back on track after it looked over avec 2018. With Worlds in Canada next year they will be pressure to put a canadian team on top she seems heavily invested in the Canadanes one of their first teams plus she`s already looking ahead to 2026 with LALA and the brits as far as the junior teams coming up none of them will factor in this quad way too soon.

So, now you're in M-F's head and know exactly what she thinks? Are you sure she doesn't look at ChoBat and think they're the most likely of the IAM teams to win gold in Milano-Cortina in 3 years? I'm sure she'd rather have that, plus silver & bronze (FearGib) than putting all her eggs in the LajLag basket solely.

 

[Colonel Green]

Hm I don’t know - best scores are kind of irrelevant when it means you could be fighting for bronze next season.

I'm not talking about scores. They won the Grand Prix Final and might have remained the top dogs if not for Piper's appendectomy.

 

[yurokis40]

So, now you're in M-F's head and know exactly what she thinks? Are you sure she doesn't look at ChoBat and think they're the most likely of the IAM teams to win gold in Milano-Cortina in 3 years? I'm sure she'd rather have that, plus silver & bronze (FearGib) than putting all her eggs in the LajLag basket solely.

You can easily feel the stench of desperation from the american tech controller Julia Rey with the marks she gave C&B at WTT, she knows if C&B retire the US is screwed for the rest of this quad, I respect H&B but they are not a world podium material they have stagnated for years and International judges don`t seem to like them much if C&B don`t compete next year no podium for america next year in Montreal.

 

[yurokis40]

So, now you're in M-F's head and know exactly what she thinks? Are you sure she doesn't look at ChoBat and think they're the most likely of the IAM teams to win gold in Milano-Cortina in 3 years? I'm sure she'd rather have that, plus silver & bronze (FearGib) than putting all her eggs in the LajLag basket solely.

IAM doesn`t need C&B to win gold in Torino there politics are strong enough to overcome the ancient Italian team if they decide to compete in there home country.

 

[Wyliefan]

Their.

 

[Karen-W]

IAM doesn`t need C&B to win gold in Torino there politics are strong enough to overcome the ancient Italian team if they decide to compete in there home country.

So, basically, you're conceding Olympic gold to FearGib right now? Okay, then...

 

[yurokis40]

So, basically, you're conceding Olympic gold to FearGib right now? Okay, then...

Fear and gibson are not winning anything LALA will be IAM top team in Torino.

 

[PRlady]

I’m not even a LaLa fan and feel sorry for them to be so cursed.

 

[Debbie S]

And the next Olys is in Milan, not Torino. I think the seats at the arena in Milan actually have backs?

 

[Rhumba d’Amour]

Setting aside the inflammatory qualities of some of the posts above, I do think the LaLas will be the top Canadian team going into the Milan Olympics. I don’t expect either Gilles/Poirier or F-B/S to stay in that long, and I don’t see any other Canadian teams on the horizon who might be able to catch them.

I also expect Green & Parsons to be the top US team going into Milan. Given their health issues, I could see Hawayek & Baker not continuing through. And though the current US field is a bit more crowded than the Canadian field, I was impressed at how far Green/Parsons got with lackluster material this season; it will not be easy to catch them either.

What do the rest of us think?

 

[Andora]

Setting aside the inflammatory qualities of some of the posts above, I do think the LaLas will be the top Canadian team going into the Milan Olympics. I don’t expect either Gilles/Poirier or F-B/S to stay in that long, and I don’t see any other Canadian teams on the horizon who might be able to catch them.

I also expect Green & Parsons to be the top US team going into Milan. Given their health issues, I could see Hawayek & Baker not continuing through. And though the current US field is a bit more crowded than the Canadian field, I was impressed at how far Green/Parsons got with lackluster material this season; it will not be easy to catch them either.

What do the rest of us think?

Mostly agree - though I think if Hawayek & Baker stay in, it'll be an interesting battle of coach politics between IAM and MIDA. If there's anything I could see holding Green & Parson's back, it would be a healthy H&B with full force IAM politics behind them.

Though I guess Igor could also be a wild card with Zingas & Kolesnik, spoiling it all.

I do think L&L will be Canada's top team, but not just due to retirements. I was beyond impressed with improvement this last season - and how they handled not going to worlds. I just hope Canada maintains decent teams to push them at home.

 

[Karen-W]

Mostly agree - though I think if Hawayek & Baker stay in, it'll be an interesting battle of coach politics between IAM and MIDA. If there's anything I could see holding Green & Parson's back, it would be a healthy H&B with full force IAM politics behind them.

Though I guess Igor could also be a wild card with Zingas & Kolesnik, spoiling it all.

I do think L&L will be Canada's top team, but not just due to retirements. I was beyond impressed with improvement this last season - and how they handled not going to worlds. I just hope Canada maintains decent teams to push them at home.

The other factor in the US ice dance scene is when Christina will get her passport and whether that would prompt a move for CarPon to Montreal from London. If ChoBat and HawBak both step aside before Milano, it's going to be really interesting to see who comes out on top of US ice dance.

I agree, LajLag are most likely going to be Canada's top team by 2026, but I don't think they'll be IAM's top team until after the field clears out some more in the following quad. They're not going to be contending for gold in 2026, probably not even the podium quite. We'll see.

 

[yurokis40]

The other factor in the US ice dance scene is when Christina will get her passport and whether that would prompt a move for CarPon to Montreal from London. If ChoBat and HawBak both step aside before Milano, it's going to be really interesting to see who comes out on top of US ice dance.

I agree, LajLag are most likely going to be Canada's top team by 2026, but I don't think they'll be IAM's top team until after the field clears out some more in the following quad. They're not going to be contending for gold in 2026, probably not even the podium quite. We'll see.

You make absolutely no sense if we assume the top 3 from this year don`t compete in Milan and if the Canadanes don`t go all the way who would medal ahead of them I think they passed Green and Parson who have clear coreo issues and Mida hasn`t proven anything yet , the brits there is only so much Lilah Fear`s billionaire dad can do like Boris Chait did with his daughter, H&B the judges don`t really like them and they have clear injury and mental health issues. LALA should be at the top in three years technically anyway.

 

[yurokis40]

Carreira probably doesn`t get her citizenship in time for the olympics and her chances go down 50% more if a republican takes the white house next year the GOP already controls the house and if they gain the senate as well forget it, things aren`t looking good for grandpa Biden behind in the polls against a twice impeached indicted former president that is how bad he screwed up.

 

[thvu]

You make absolutely no sense if we assume the top 3 from this year don`t compete in Milan and if the Canadanes don`t go all the way who would medal ahead of them I think they passed Green and Parson who have clear coreo issues and Mida hasn`t proven anything yet , the brits there is only so much Lilah Fear`s billionaire dad can do like Boris Chait did with his daughter, H&B the judges don`t really like them and they have clear injury and mental health issues. LALA should be at the top in three years technically anyway.

Projecting much?

Edit: In the last day, you've tried to establish that you're a mind reader and a geopolitical expert.

 

[Sylvia]

IDC article by Daphne Backman (April 14):

Mazingue & Gaidajenko: The Journey and the Miracle – Ice-dance.com

www.ice-dance.com

Estonia’s Solene Mazingue (20) & Marko Gaidajenko (21) had a whirlwind 2021-22 season. They relocated to Montreal in the off season and were preparing for the 2022-23 season when an accident during practice resulted in the season turning out much different than planned and Mazingue needing emergency brain surgery to save her life. Learn more about this young team’s individual journeys as well as how they’re moving forward after an unpredictable season.

 

[yurokis40]

Projecting much?

Edit: In the last day, you've tried to establish that you're a mind reader and a geopolitical expert.

Biden is an even worse prez than Carter who in his final days must be overjoyed that someone else took his place.

 

[Rukia]

Christina has her green card and basically said it's just a matter of "when" for citizenship, which hopefully will be sooner rather than later. I imagine driving back and forth over the border everyday is pretty draining. But she seems pretty positive that it will definitely be before 2026, and I'll take her word for it at this point.

 

[PRlady]

Carreira probably doesn`t get her citizenship in time for the olympics and her chances go down 50% more if a republican takes the white house next year the GOP already controls the house and if they gain the senate as well forget it, things aren`t looking good for grandpa Biden behind in the polls against a twice impeached indicted former president that is how bad he screwed up.

Let’s keep the non-ice-dance politics in PI where they belong, please.

 

[Dobre]

Politically speaking, it's not particularly in IAM's best interest to push Carreira & Ponomarenko. It's in Scott's & London's best interest, certainly, but the way Green & Parsons moved up internationally was via defeating Lajoie & Lagha at least twice last season. And Fear & Gibson at SC. And then splitting results with Hawayek & Baker at Nationals. These are all IAM teams, and these are basically the wins any young U.S. dance team (including C&P) has to nab in order to move up the international ranks.

As for the politics at U.S. Nationals, at the idea that IAM would somehow have more political push there than C&P's previous coach.

Mind you, I do think Carreira & Ponomarenko will continue to develop as a team & they may one day be able to defeat any or all of the teams listed above. I just don't think I'd pin my hopes on it coming from a big political push.

 

[GoneWithTheWind]

A new interview with Absolute Skating from Guignard/Fabbri (interview was done shortly before 2023 Europeans): http://www.absoluteskating.com/index.php?cat=interviews&id=2023guignardfabbri

In it, they discuss the season to that point, the changes they made to their programs throughout the season, the design process for their costumes and their thoughts on ice shows.

The also go in depth about their scores this season (and especially at the GPF, where the judges marked their spin a L2):

We're...satisfied with the scores we got. Except for the Grand Prix Final because there, especially in the free dance, we got a really low score despite skating well.... we lost some levels in the free dance that we were not expecting, something we're not used to, honestly. We asked the technical panel, but to tell the truth, for the first time I can say that we don't agree with their decision... The panel said that Charlène, during her layback position, raised up a bit and didn't hold it for the required three revolutions, but there was nothing wrong with her position [according to the video they watched, which they acknowledge is a different view than the judges get] and that cost us almost two points...We feel that feedback is always very important....but for the first time we felt that there were some strange calls at the Final which we didn't agree with. It was a bit disappointing, but this can happen to anyone.

The general rules for ice dance (which they feel are sometimes too restrictive):

And, of course, with too many rules it's getting harder to do something more creative. We realise that every year we spend more time trying to find and show something new, because it's important for us to do something different every season. You can look at it like a pyramid: the less rules you have, the more options you get. And I feel they have to reduce the number of rules at least a little bit, it needs to be more flexible.

And discuss their experiences of competing the various iterations of the compulsory/original/short/rhythm dance and the lack of pattern this season:

I think they wanted to experiment this season to make the rhythm dance look different.... I think they try to give more freedom to skaters, to make it more enjoyable for the audience. I'm not 100% sure this was the perfect choice, although we personally really love the choreo step [sequence] in the rhythm dance... In previous seasons there was not enough time to really dance, to add a lot of choreography. On the other hand, I feel this season the rhythm dance is not technical anymore, because they also reduced the number of technical steps in the partial step sequence.... I feel they still have to find this balance if they want to keep the rhythm dance as the technical program.

 

[ice coverage]

Christina has her green card and basically said it's just a matter of "when" for citizenship, which hopefully will be sooner rather than later. I imagine driving back and forth over the border everyday is pretty draining. But she seems pretty positive that it will definitely be before 2026, and I'll take her word for it at this point.

Sooner rather than later would be good.
I hope it would not come down to the wire, but for a skater to be selected by USFS for 2026 Olympics, would the deadline for U.S. citizenship not be until 2026 U.S. Nationals?
Or would ISU/IOC have an earlier deadline?

USFS athlete selection procedures for 2022 Beijing Olympics said:

1.1.1. Nationality/Passport requirements:​

Athlete must be a national of the United States at the time of nomination.​

Athlete must hold a valid U.S. passport that will not expire for six months after the conclusion of the Games.​

January 24 was ISU/IOC's "2022 Beijing Olympics Sports Entries deadline" -- but I don't know whether there could have been an earlier deadline pertaining to citizenship?? (Beijing opening ceremony was on Feb 4.)

---

... 2023 NQS has only three dance events anyway: Lake Placid and Silicon Valley NQS are the same week; and Challenge Cup NQS is in late Sep. ...

BTW, update to my earlier post in this thread: A fourth dance event has been added to USFS NQS list for 2023-24.
Dallas Classic, Jul 14-17, now will lead off the series. (Lake Placid and Silicon Valley both are the week of Jul 31.)

 

[guignardfabbri]

You make absolutely no sense if we assume the top 3 from this year don`t compete in Milan and if the Canadanes don`t go all the way who would medal ahead of them I think they passed Green and Parson who have clear coreo issues and Mida hasn`t proven anything yet , the brits there is only so much Lilah Fear`s billionaire dad can do like Boris Chait did with his daughter, H&B the judges don`t really like them and they have clear injury and mental health issues. LALA should be at the top in three years technically anyway.

Guignard & Fabbri almost 100% for sure will stay for Olympics in home country, and with home ice I would bet on them beating Lagha & Lajoie who are way behind them now.

Fear & Gibson are on the rise as much as Lajoie & Lagha and also far ahead of them now in scores and everything.

Chock & Bates I would say are 50% likely to stay for 2026, but if they do would have to be more likely than not to beat LaLa.

So that is already 2 or 3 teams minimum to beat them in 2026, even with Gilles & Poirier and the Danadians both unlikely to stay for 2026. That is without even counting Hawayek & Baker who if they can return and stay healthy/motivated, have a good shot to stay ahead of them, their close rivals Green & Parsons, etc..

If I were to bet on the most likely winners for 2026 now it would be Fear & Gibson. I find them overrated personally but their scores and momentum are constantly rising fast, and they are getting better along with that. In any case they are certainly more likely than Lajoie & Lagha are.

 

[Trillian]

That is without even counting Hawayek & Baker who if they can return and stay healthy/motivated, have a good shot to stay ahead of them, their close rivals Green & Parsons, etc..

I’m surprised by how many people seem to have written off Hawayek & Baker already. Sure, they took half a season off, but they started with some nice momentum last fall. It seems they’re back on the ice together now, based on social media. And the big gap in score between 5th & 6th at worlds had big, “Don’t worry, we saved you a seat at the table!” energy IMO. Yes, a lot will depend on how ready and motivated they really are to come back - but if they show up strong next season, I don’t think for a second they won’t be able to pick up where they left off.

To be fair, I’m an H&B stan who will probably hold out hope for total world domination until the day they retire. (I’ll try to refrain from posting unhinged rants with no punctuation where I invent OTT criticisms about every other team and cite political and pop cultural events that have nothing to do with ice dance, though.)

If I were to bet on the most likely winners for 2026 now it would be Fear & Gibson.

I agree they’ve been on the most obvious trajectory. If we end up with a scenario where P&C don’t come back and all the top four over-30 teams from Worlds are out by then (which, we’ll see, but it’s certainly possible), my feeling is that F&G are looking like the clear favorites right now based on scoring. Beyond that, I’d guess Lajoie & Lagha (who I do think will move up fast when they’re CAN#1), Hawayek & Baker or Green & Parsons (I can’t imagine both on the podium), and maybe the Taschlers are potential medal contenders. But I can also imagine Guignard & Fabbri still being in the mix - stranger things have happened.

 

[guignardfabbri]

I do think it would be unwise to write Hawayek & Baker off now, but it would also be wise for them if they are serious about 2026, to get back ASAP and fully motivated. Since that this is already casually happening on a site like this, is a sign of how people think. We see how Gilles & Poirier dropped from the clear favorites to worlds to #3 team two outings in a row now, largely just due to a brief absence, changing momentum and pereception of the top contenders, how important momentum and keeping yourself out there is. I do respect her feeling the need for her mental health struggles, and they have some lingering injuries too, so missing worlds was probably the right choice, but they also need to get themselves back out there soon if they are going to be contenders.