2017 GPF Men Poll

[haribobo]

words

 

[tony]

I think it's going to be the top 6 as they are right now - Chen, Brown, Jin, Kolyada, Hanyu, and Uno. Fernandez is out even with a win unless something really wild happens.

 

[AngieNikodinovLove (ANL)]

What if 3 USA men make it.... say what????????

Hanyu, Uno, Kolyada, Chen, Brown and either Aaron/Rippon.

 

[DreamSkates]

I didn't vote for Brown or Aaron - hopeful, but what else do they need to make it to GPF? Another bronze? I can't remember how the points go.

 

[Firedancer]

I think it will be Chen, Brown, Uno, Hanyu, Jin & Kolyada.

^Jason has silver from Skate Canada. Another silver at NHK (which seems doable with Patrick’s withdrawal) would get him in.

 

[Sylvia]

Current standings after 3 GP events: http://www.isuresults.com/events/gp2017/gpsmen.htm

1 Mikhail KOLYADA RUS 11 + 15 = 26 (550.44)

2 Shoma UNO JPN 15 (301.10) + FRA
3 Nathan CHEN USA 15 (293.79) + Skate America
4 Yuzuru HANYU JPN 13 (290.77) + NHK
5 Boyang JIN CHN 13 (264.48) + Skate America
6 Jason BROWN USA 13 (261.14) + NHK
7 Max AARON USA 11 (259.69) + FRA
8 Alexander SAMARIN RUS 11 (250.06) + FRA
9 Vincent ZHOU USA 9 (256.66) + FRA
10 Misha GE UZB 9 (255.33) + FRA

Still to compete:
Alexei BYCHENKO ISR - NHK & FRA
Sergei VORONOV RUS - NHK & Skate America
Adam RIPPON USA - NHK & Skate America

So why did you go with Bychenko, @haribobo?

 

[Marco]

I agree that the top six will likely stay as is. Max / Alex Samarin will have a harder time placing 2nd in France compared to Jason placing at least 3rd in Japan.

Vincent has no shot even if he wins in France and Uno is there anyways.

If a very firey Adam shows up at his events, I think a 2nd and 3rd or even two 2nd places may be possible.

 

[Marco]

So I suppose a more likely scenario now is Kolyada, Uno, Chen, Jin, Brown and the silver medalist in France between Aaron, Zhou and Samarin (or Rippon - who has a high chance for medal at NHK now)

 

[AngieNikodinovLove (ANL)]

At breakfast in Berlin now. Now that I saw this withdrawal I think three American man could possibly get into final

 

[Tahuu]

Whoever wins NHK will have a good chance to make GPF. Voronov is leading by ~5 points after the short. If he wins here and gets 3rd or 4th at SA, he will make the GPF.

 

[tony]

The winner of NHK (if it's not Brown) is in really good shape and most likely would only need a 4th place in their other event.

So Kolyada is for sure in, Uno (FRA) and Chen (USA) need only 4th place in their second events, Brown with a podium finish here is most likely in, and Jin with a podium finish at Skate America is also likely in.

Max Aaron needs a strong 2nd place finish in France to even have a small chance, which is going to be a tough task. Same story for Samarin.

 

[misskarne]

Brown with a podium finish here is most likely in, and Jin with a podium finish at Skate America is also likely in.

Max Aaron needs a strong 2nd place finish in France to even have a small chance, which is going to be a tough task. Same story for Samarin.

Q: Why would a 2/3 finish be enough for Jason/Boyang but not for Max/Samarin?

 

[tony]

Q: Why would a 2/3 finish be enough for Jason/Boyang but not for Max/Samarin?

With Uno, Fernandez, Bychenko, Samarin, and Zhou in the field, I meant that finishing 2nd would be no easy task. And yes, I know that Max beat some of them in his first event but we know that Fernandez really imploded. Also, Jin skated pretty mediocre in China has a 5 point tie-break lead over Max at this point if they were to both finish with a 2nd and 3rd place.

 

[Marco]

Adam with a pair of silvers or a silver and bronze but high score can also make it.

 

[misskarne]

*sigh*

Let's see. Max hits both quads clean, all his spins and steps like in China, and he could get a 90 SP for sure. He got 176 in China for his excellent FS but gave away some GOE and said he muffed some of the choreo because he forgot it so maybe he could push 180 for the FS in France. That's a 270 TSS, which would be pretty competitive but if Fernandez and Uno both skate really well..ugh.

And then it also depends on the TP at France. If they're as lax as the ones in China then Zhou is brought into play. If they're more strict like Canada Zhou gets taken out of play. But we won't know...

tl;dr the skaters in contention at NHK got a massive gift, and the ones at IdF have a giant uphill climb.

 

[MAXSwagg]

That is true. NHK skaters got a hug even gift. But it doesn't matter much, as the final will now be between Shoma and Nathan. And again, they got a huge gift too, with Hanyu and Fernandez out. Whoever wins that it will be a hollow victory not worth much.

 

[Sylvia]

Current standings after 4 GP events: http://www.isuresults.com/events/gp2017/gpsmen.htm

1 Mikhail KOLYADA RUS 11 + 15 = 26 (550.44) - has qualified

Jason BROWN USA 13 (261.14) + 9 (245.95) = 22 (507.09)

France next week:
Shoma UNO JPN 15 (301.10)
Max AARON USA 11 (259.69)
Alexei BYCHENKO ISR 11 (252.07)
Alexander SAMARIN RUS 11 (250.06)
Vincent ZHOU USA 9 (256.66)
Misha GE UZB 9 (255.33)
Could be a spoiler: Javier FERNANDEZ ESP 5 (253.06)

Skate America in 2 weeks:
Nathan CHEN USA 15 (293.79) + Skate America
Sergei VORONOV RUS 15 (271.12) + Skate America
Boyang JIN CHN 13 (264.48) + Skate America
Adam RIPPON USA 13 (261.99) + Skate America
ETA potential spoiler: Maxim KOVTUN RUS - his 1st GP after he WD from Skate Canada due to an old back injury

Out:
Yuzuru HANYU JPN 13 (290.77) - NHK WD
Patrick CHAN CAN 9 (245.70) - NHK WD

 

[Tahuu]

Already in and pretty much in: Mikhail Kolyada 26, Shoma Uno 15, Nathan Chen 15, Sergei Voronov 15.

Potential in: Jason Brown 13, Jin Boyang 13, Adam Rippon 13.

For Jason to make the final, he would first need Jarvi or Vincent to be 2nd at TdF. That’s not a tall order, and then one of Boyang or Adam drops to 5th at SA, as both will likely score higher than Jason if they place 4th. With Kovtun at SA, it’s possible to see Nathan, Boyang, Sergei, Maxim or Nathan, Sergei, Maxim, Adam, but not Nathan, Boyang, Sergei and Adam in some order. Jason and his fans may need to glue to the screen rooting for Jarvi, Vincent and Maxim, and cheer for every fall of Adam and Boyang.

 

[tony]

So after NHK:

Kolyada remains the only skater guaranteed. Brown's finish off the podium makes his quest much, much more difficult now and on the unlikely side he makes the final.

Uno, Chen, and Voronov are all still likely to only need a 4th place finish or better in their second events to make the Final.

Right now, the total points from the other medal winners at first events are as follows:

Jin 264.48
Rippon 261.99
Aaron 259.69
Bychenko 252.07
Samarin 250.06

Vincent Zhou is the only other skater with an outside chance, but it would require him to win in France over Uno, Aaron, Bychenko, Samarin, and Fernandez. So that's extremely unlikely.

Fernandez even with a win is out.

Bychenko and Samarin would not only have to finish 2nd in France, but they'd have to *really* improve their total scores for the event to have a chance. Also, not very likely.

Aaron needs a 2nd place- same situation as above. With the field, it's extremely unlikely. If he or either of the other two are third, they go behind Brown and are definitely out.

Skate America has Chen, Voronov, Jin, Rippon, and questionable Kovtun. If the final standings there are something like Chen, Jin, Rippon, and Voronov, all of them would be likely to qualify. Even a high fourth place from Rippon or Jin could qualify, passing Brown on total segment points.

Kolyada, Uno, Chen, Voronov, Rippon, and Jin seem to be the very likely case. If Rippon or Jin drop to fifth at Skate America (or either of them have a miserable 4th place showing), then it's Jason Brown most likely to get the spot.

 

[Roux]

What is happening this season?? No Yuzuru, Patrick or Javier at GPF? Javier's and now Jason's uncharacteristic inconsistency... Tell me this isn't every Olympic season! I can't take it!

On the other hand, it's great to see so many others bringing it. I've always liked Kolyada; hope he can keep it up!

 

[MAXSwagg]

Kolyada, Uno, Chen, Voronov, Rippon, and Jin? Thank god I gave up trying to get tickets. It would've been a waste of money for me. And I will likely only check the results. ISU better be glad it's in Japan or else they'd be losing major money if it were anywhere else.

 

[tony]

Kolyada, Uno, Chen, Voronov, Rippon, and Jin? Thank god I gave up trying to get tickets. It would've been a waste of money for me. And I will likely only check the results. ISU better be glad it's in Japan or else they'd be losing major money if it were anywhere else.

Brown blew it big-time today in a wide open field. Hanyu got injured, Fernandez bombed his first event, and Chan's body isn't competition ready. Who else did you expect to fill those spots? Kolyada, Uno, Chen, and Jin were already high up on the likely to qualify list, and Rippon also made the final last year.

 

[toddlj]

So after NHK:

Kolyada remains the only skater guaranteed. Brown's finish off the podium makes his quest much, much more difficult now and on the unlikely side he makes the final.

Uno, Chen, and Voronov are all still likely to only need a 4th place finish or better in their second events to make the Final.

Right now, the total points from the other medal winners at first events are as follows:

Jin 264.48
Rippon 261.99
Aaron 259.69
Bychenko 252.07
Samarin 250.06

Vincent Zhou is the only other skater with an outside chance, but it would require him to win in France over Uno, Aaron, Bychenko, Samarin, and Fernandez. So that's extremely unlikely.

What if Zhou finishes in 2nd with a higher point total than Jason? I could see him losing to Uno and beating the others you list. If Jason's a possibility, so is Vincent.

 

[tony]

What if Zhou finishes in 2nd with a higher point total than Jason? I could see him losing to Uno and beating the others you list. If Jason's a possibility, so is Vincent.

Not out of the question, definitely. He'd have to score just about what he did in China to pass Jason on a 2nd & 4th tiebreak. Of course, beating one of Uno and Fernandez will be a tough task, Javier's China implosion aside. But I think the more likely scenario is that Uno is the only qualifier to come from the France event and then the rest of them qualify at Skate America, in another wide open field.

It's also interesting that Misha Ge's Rostelecom point total would have been enough for the bronze medal at two other events. He skated extremely well there and also can't be discounted!

 

[alchemy void]

Kolyada, Uno, Chen, Voronov, Rippon, and Jin? Thank god I gave up trying to get tickets. It would've been a waste of money for me. And I will likely only check the results. ISU better be glad it's in Japan or else they'd be losing major money if it were anywhere else.

You’re a real positive person, aren’t you?

 

[toddlj]

Not out of the question, definitely. He'd have to score just about what he did in China to pass Jason on a 2nd & 4th tiebreak. Of course, beating one of Uno and Fernandez will be a tough task, Javier's China implosion aside. But I think the more likely scenario is that Uno is the only qualifier to come from the France event and then the rest of them qualify at Skate America, in another wide open field.

It's also interesting that Misha Ge's Rostelecom point total would have been enough for the bronze medal at two other events. He skated extremely well there and also can't be discounted!

Agreed! Normally, I'd go with "likely scenario" but it seems like a lot of unlikely scenarios have played out already this season.

 

[MAXSwagg]

You’re a real positive person, aren’t you?

It is my opinion. I have no interest in seeing this particular set of skaters live, except for Jason, who likely will not be there. Given the circumstances, yes. There's nothing overwhelmingly positive about the men's event at the GPF.

 

[SkateFanBerlin]

It is my opinion. I have no interest in seeing this particular set of skaters live, except for Jason, who likely will not be there. Given the circumstances, yes. There's nothing overwhelmingly positive about the men's event at the GPF.

Tend to agree. A little heavy on the jumpers. Adam there would be nice.

 

[Vash01]

Just noticed that Voronov is not an option on this poll, which is not surprising. Who would gave thought that he would win the NHK? Even without Hanyu I wouldn't have picked him to win the gold there (bronze- may be).

I am very happy for Voronov. I hope he makes the GPF and the Olympic team.