I wouldn't be surprised. Her three jump combo could then be a 3lz, 2a, 2a, in effect, replacing a 2lp with a 3a. Even if the 3a is underrotated, it's still about five extra points.
So, it looks like Alysa is locked into 5th place in the WR for the Olympics (I assume she will skip 4CC). Gubanova, Pinzarone and Kim still cannot catch her, even if they win Euros/4CC.
https://results.isu.org/ws/ws/wswomen.htm
I think K/O are a lock for pairs unless Efimova gets her citizenship. Then it will depend on which team wins Nationals. I agree with your take on Japan, unless Nakai wins Nationals. In that case, Mone could be out of TE.
Based on the scheduling, I would be surprised if the US doesn't split men and ID. Ilia men's short; Jason men's long; C/B RD; C/P or Z/K FD; K/O both pair segments; Liu both women's segments.
I could see Alysa changing to Gaga for artistic, rather than competitive reasons. As we've seen with the 3lz/3lp, it's sometimes more about the challenge than the points.
I'm curious to see Alysa at COC. Assuming her boot problems are behind her, I think we'll see at least one 3A.
The 3A changes the calculus in a big way.
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