Which Ice Dance Teams Will Be In The 2018 Olympic Podium? (PREDICTIONS)

[caseyedwards]

But worlds and Olympics are a while different ball game, a sweep from the same region/coaching team seems to be allowed at worlds but not the Olympics. The most immediate example that comes to mind is the Virtue/Moir, Davis/White,and Domnina/Shabalin podium in Vancouver. When given how the skating went a Virtue/Moir, Davis/White, and Belton/Agosto was the more accurate top 3, a N. American top 3.

D/S were reigning world champions. That must be factored in. Linichuk was in Pennsylvania training D/S and B/A.

Even though P/C are Coached in North America France gets the win. Then Canada gets silver. Dubreuil is coaching a very international group. If she sweeps the podium it will be 3 different countries and 2 continents. Shibutani is Marina and C/B Igor.

Only Russians don’t train in North America. Everyone else in North America. If they want outsiders to North America only Russians are available and they aren’t even gpf worthy.

 

[chapis]

On the components, H&B actually have the higher SS component.

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Do you mean H/D or C/B? I find curious how often people refer to H/D like H/B.

 

[Amantide]

But when judging you have to take out the fact that you don't like the program or the music choice. You have to judge what you see. This was emphasised by a judge at a seminar last weekend (Synchro seminar at Australian Nationals).

Which is laughable, if they really think they can manage that.

 

[Willin]

Well, tbh, one of the reasons I liked D/W better than V/M despite the fact that they were mostly equal was that D/W skated to fast stuff where all the fast steps made sense whereas V/M tends to choose slow music and then stuffs as many steps in as D/W.

On the V/M thread the ubers were talking about how V/M's choreography is more intricate and harder than P/C's (which, during the elements isn't true - they have the same BV; it's true during transitions) - but the reason that's true is because V/M shove so many unnecessary steps in everywhere, even when it doesn't make any sense with the slow music. Long sustained edges that P/C have are less difficult than many fast turns and tight steps, but a lot more attractive to slow beats. I don't like P/C's programs, but at least they can appreciate that you need to go slow when the music is slow...

So yeah, I totally judge on music and I don't think the judges can judge on not music. Aren't some PCS marks even specifically looking at the music (ie. timing to the music or interpretation of the music?)

 

[Aussie Willy]

Do you mean H/D or C/B? I find curious how often people refer to H/D like H/B.

Haha yes I meant the first one.

Which is laughable, if they really think they can manage that.

Well actually yes they can. Many times I have disliked a program but still had to give a skater credit for the fact that they use the music.

 

[Amantide]

Well actually yes they can. Many times I have disliked a program but still had to give a skater credit for the fact that they use the music.

PE and IN, yes. Composition+CH, I find that very difficult thing to do.

 

[Aussie Willy]

So yeah, I totally judge on music and I don't think the judges can judge on not music. Aren't some PCS marks even specifically looking at the music (ie. timing to the music or interpretation of the music?)

That is correct. Timing is a bit of a no brainer. You should be able to tell if a skater is skating to the appropriate beat. And you may hate the music and even what the skater does, but it works with the music and the skater is paying attention to it, then you do have to give them credit, as much as it might pain you to do so.

 

[Aussie Willy]

PE and IN, yes. Composition+CH, I find that very difficult thing to do.

Composition covers both the use of the elements and placement of program on the ice.

Again you may not like the music, but if the skater is hitting the nuances of the music and doig their elements around the structure of the music, you have to give them credit.

 

[Amantide]

Composition covers both the use of the elements and placement of program on the ice.

Again you may not like the music, but if the skater is hitting the nuances of the music and doig their elements around the structure of the music, you have to give them credit.

Again, the skaters may give their best and their performance/execution is spot on. It doesn't mean they are skating to a great program. Music is a very important component in the building of a choreo/program. It is through music and movements you express yourself out there. It is also thanks to the music that ballet such as the swan lake are masterpieces and so very much loved.
Which program do you like most this season?

 

[skatingguy]

Composition covers both the use of the elements and placement of program on the ice.

Again you may not like the music, but if the skater is hitting the nuances of the music and doig their elements around the structure of the music, you have to give them credit.

But when you have two teams like Virtue/Moir & Papadakis/Cizeron who are being separated by fractions of point on individual elements and PCS, I would imagine that it would be hard not to give the edge to the program that you, as a judge, enjoyed more. If the difference between the two teams in PCS, in particular, is .25, does personal preference not come in to play? Even if that preference is sub-conscience.

 

[Aussie Willy]

The worse thing I hate more than a piece of music I don't like, it is horrible music cuts. That is when I really start getting peeved off and it really puts me into a negative frame of mind with a program.

But being a subjectively judged sport, you are going to get music that some love and some hate. For example I would be happy never to hear Hallelujah ever again. On the other hand people seem to love it. I do get skaters ask me their opinion about pieces of music that they are thinking of using and I will be honest with them, particularly if they are a warhorse.

When it comes down to what I have seen this season, my personal favourite has been H&D. Fantastic music choice. Then P&C are just the ultimate ice dancers. V&M are so skilled and you cannot deny their brilliance. All three have something to offer.

I could also add while I haven't seen many of the juniors, the ones that really stood out for me from the JGPF were Shevechenko/Ermenko. They really stood out for really doing something else from the ordinary.

 

[briancoogaert]

For me, there is no doubt the podium will be V&M, P&C and Shibs.

 

[Amantide]

But when you have two teams like Virtue/Moir & Papadakis/Cizeron who are being separated by fractions of point on individual elements and PCS, I would imagine that it would be hard not to give the edge to the program that you, as a judge, enjoyed more. If the difference between the two teams in PCS, in particular, is .25, does personal preference not come in to play? Even if that preference is sub-conscience.

Exactly. When it comes to teams who are separated by fractions you sure as hell go with your personal taste of which program you liked the most, cause of the choreo/music/structure etc. Whoever says no, is being delusional.

 

[Isabelle.G]

P/C and V/M the battle for gold, no question about it. I'm secretely hoping H/D could grap the third place.

 

[GreenGan]

I wouldn't count W/P out. They have one of the best SD of the season, they were injured at IdF, they have a confidence again with a FD they love... I know most part of it is me really liking them but they have the goods to perform.
If they don't participate in the team events, they won't be tired and they'll be angry for a medal. It's a long shot, but I still have them under my radar.

 

[jbuckbee]

P/C and V/M are pretty much a lock, but I soooooo want H/D for the 3rd podium spot. They have been underscored all year. And I get tired of everyone saying that they make critical mistakes. Surely, Worlds last year was indeed a critical mistake. But they have great programs this year and have skated as consistently as any of the top teams. For some reason that many people don't understand, they are penalized more for their mistakes (Shibs mess of twizzles in the GPF were a level 4?????) and don't get the PCS scores that they should. H/D are the complete package.

 

[Anyasnake]

For now : P/C, V/M, Shibs. Skating clean will be crucial. Maybe Shibs got rid of all their mistakes they didn't make for 2 years just on the GPF. Nationals will be a battle for sure, because I expect Shibs not to make any mistakes again, H/D to hit their missing levels, and C/B showed us they can skate very clean.
I will still have a difference in PCS with C/B. In the previous years C/B had more power and speed, however it's lacking this year. Her strapped ankle left me some question marks also.
Spoiler could be WeaPo but I don't really see it. They don't have any international outings before Olys, that's tough. That's why it's nice to be a European skater : C/L, B/S, S/B, P/C can go make a statement. Coomes/Buckland can catch up more to their previous marks. S/B could end up on the podium for the 1st time.

 

[caseyedwards]

For now : P/C, V/M, Shibs. Skating clean will be crucial. Maybe Shibs got rid of all their mistakes they didn't make for 2 years just on the GPF. Nationals will be a battle for sure, because I expect Shibs not to make any mistakes again, H/D to hit their missing levels, and C/B showed us they can skate very clean.
I will still have a difference in PCS with C/B. In the previous years C/B had more power and speed, however it's lacking this year. Her strapped ankle left me some question marks also.
Spoiler could be WeaPo but I don't really see it. They don't have any international outings before Olys, that's tough. That's why it's nice to be a European skater : C/L, B/S, S/B, P/C can go make a statement. Coomes/Buckland can catch up more to their previous marks. S/B could end up on the podium for the 1st time.

It would be s/b’s second time

 

[Anyasnake]

It would be s/b’s second time

Silly me, yes, thank you !

 

[slipchuk]

It is clearly a two horse race between only Papadakis & Cizeron and Virtue & Moir for gold and silver with no other team having any chance whatsoever. P&C have the slight edge for gold right now coming out of the GPF. However any significant or semi significant mistake by either team would likely seal their fate as they are so closely matched.

The bronze is the other battle. Right now the Shibutanis have the slight edge, and I think despite not making the GPF Weaver & Poje and perhaps Hubbell & Donohue (although that changes if C&B beat them at Nationals) are their biggest threats.

Those thinking a bronze for Bobrova & Soloviev are la la land. They couldnt even beat the Shibutanis with inflated scoring on home ice, and probably wouldnt have even without their spin error in the short dance, and then on neutral territory which is what they will have at the Olympics they skated cleanly and lost decisively to Chock & Bates. They would only win the bronze if the Shibutanis, W&P, H&D, and probably even C&B and C&L all had mistakes, which is very unlikely in ice dancing. And no the Russian fed. wont bother wasting politics on Bobrova & Soloviev to give them an outside shot of a mere bronze medal, when they can push for a ladies sweep, and will likely continue politiking for the inflated scores Tarasova & Morozov get when they skate well as without that politiking they arent even competitive with Savchenko & Massot and Sui & Han. That their much poorer short program nearly beat S&M in the short of the GPF shows they are where a lot of their politiking is going and that wont stop. After the GPF where Kolyada could have easily won if he had 1 less of his 5 or so mistakes, they will probably politik hard for him at the Games too. There is nothing to waste on a relative no hoper like B&S.

 

[caseyedwards]

It is clearly a two horse race between only Papadakis & Cizeron and Virtue & Moir for gold and silver with no other team having any chance whatsoever. P&C have the slight edge for gold right now coming out of the GPF. However any significant or semi significant mistake by either team would likely seal their fate as they are so closely matched.

The bronze is the other battle. Right now the Shibutanis have the slight edge, and I think despite not making the GPF Weaver & Poje and perhaps Hubbell & Donohue (although that changes if C&B beat them at Nationals) are their biggest threats.

Those thinking a bronze for Bobrova & Soloviev are la la land. They couldnt even beat the Shibutanis with inflated scoring on home ice, and probably wouldnt have even without their spin error in the short dance, and then on neutral territory which is what they will have at the Olympics they skated cleanly and lost decisively to Chock & Bates. They would only win the bronze if the Shibutanis, W&P, H&D, and probably even C&B and C&L all had mistakes, which is very unlikely in ice dancing. And no the Russian fed. wont bother wasting politics on Bobrova & Soloviev to give them an outside shot of a mere bronze medal, when they can push for a ladies sweep, and will likely continue politiking for the inflated scores Tarasova & Morozov get when they skate well as without that politiking they arent even competitive with Savchenko & Massot and Sui & Han. That their much poorer short program nearly beat S&M in the short of the GPF shows they are where a lot of their politiking is going and that wont stop. After the GPF where Kolyada could have easily won if he had 1 less of his 5 or so mistakes, they will probably politik hard for him at the Games too. There is nothing to waste on a relative no hoper like B&S.

B/S had a good record in China too. Losing to C/B when both were equal is one main reason why Russia may try to push them out early for S/b this season. I bet Russia doesn’t make s/b number one this season but if they do that loss to C/B is reason number 1 -the next being her imminent retirement.

 

[Anyasnake]

B/S had a good record in China too. Losing to C/B when both were equal is one main reason why Russia may try to push them out early for S/b this season. I bet Russia doesn’t make s/b number one this season but if they do that loss to C/B is reason number 1 -the next being her imminent retirement.

To be honest, I don't know how B/S lost to C/B in China. On a technical point of view and performance wise I found B/S much better especially on the FD.

 

[caseyedwards]

To be honest, I don't know how B/S lost to C/B in China. On a technical point of view and performance wise I found B/S much better especially on the FD.

I bet it was a deal.

 

[marbri]

It is clearly a two horse race between only Papadakis & Cizeron and Virtue & Moir for gold and silver with no other team having any chance whatsoever. P&C have the slight edge for gold right now coming out of the GPF. However any significant or semi significant mistake by either team would likely seal their fate as they are so closely matched.

The bronze is the other battle. Right now the Shibutanis have the slight edge, and I think despite not making the GPF Weaver & Poje and perhaps Hubbell & Donohue (although that changes if C&B beat them at Nationals) are their biggest threats.

Those thinking a bronze for Bobrova & Soloviev are la la land. They couldnt even beat the Shibutanis with inflated scoring on home ice, and probably wouldnt have even without their spin error in the short dance, and then on neutral territory which is what they will have at the Olympics they skated cleanly and lost decisively to Chock & Bates. They would only win the bronze if the Shibutanis, W&P, H&D, and probably even C&B and C&L all had mistakes, which is very unlikely in ice dancing. And no the Russian fed. wont bother wasting politics on Bobrova & Soloviev to give them an outside shot of a mere bronze medal, when they can push for a ladies sweep, and will likely continue politiking for the inflated scores Tarasova & Morozov get when they skate well as without that politiking they arent even competitive with Savchenko & Massot and Sui & Han. That their much poorer short program nearly beat S&M in the short of the GPF shows they are where a lot of their politiking is going and that wont stop. After the GPF where Kolyada could have easily won if he had 1 less of his 5 or so mistakes, they will probably politik hard for him at the Games too. There is nothing to waste on a relative no hoper like B&S.

People seem to forget the team event and how that may influence things that are going on. It benefits them to have a Russian dance team ranked higher. If it's not B/S then it´s one of the other teams. We'll see at Euros. Then once the team event is over opinions may change before the individual event.

 

[caseyedwards]

People seem to forget the team event and how that may influence things that are going on. It benefits them to have a Russian dance team ranked higher. If it's not B/S then it´s one of the other teams. We'll see at Euros. Then once the team event is over opinions may change before the individual event.

No one really knows what teams are going to be entered for Italy and France. How hard are they going to try in short dance in team event when they have little shot at a medal. It could all be misleading.

 

[Anyasnake]

No one really knows what teams are going to be entered for Italy and France. How hard are they going to try in short dance in team event when they have little shot at a medal. It could all be misleading.

You mean if Italy #2 or France #2 skate instead ? Anna&Luca could use a warm-up for the short dance... strategically I think P/C might not do the team event. They might get 1st in Dance, then James/Cipres could play spoiler, but maybe not. Between Ladies and Men, I don't think France is going to skate the FDs at the team event anyway.

 

[caseyedwards]

You mean if Italy #2 or France #2 skate instead ? Anna&Luca could use a warm-up for the short dance... strategically I think P/C might not do the team event. They might get 1st in Dance, then James/Cipres could play spoiler, but maybe not. Between Ladies and Men, I don't think France is going to skate the FDs at the team event anyway.

I was wondering what happens if Italy#2 and France#2 compete.

 

[Anyasnake]

I was wondering what happens if Italy#2 and France#2 compete.

Italy #2 competed last time. But then, isn't the podium already Russia, USA, Canada ? Maybe Japan could play spoiler but they don't have a good pair team and their Ice Dance team doesn't score as high as the other. Team event is nice if you get a medal, but otherwise, nobody cares.

 

[skatingguy]

If you look at the results from last year's World Championships it's China that could push the US off the podium.

 

[Amantide]

This whole Team competition before the main one is bollocks, IMO. How hard it is to schedule after the individual competitions?