U.S. Women [#5]: Remain on the Dance Floor

[peibeck]

I love how seriously people are taking Jackie's predictions. I love Jackie, and he's great at live-tweeting practices and competitions, but he's never been good at predictions.

And based on history, who knows which Amber shows up? Whilst I adore her, her most consistent quality is her being... inconsistent.
ETA: @BlueRidge and I are on the same brain wave.

Wait... injured Ava, who isn't going to skate at Nationals was on the "Today" show promoting US Nationals? That seems odd. Did we find out what said injury actually is, that she'll be able to compete next week in China?

 

[peibeck]

If I were betting I'd hesitate to put money on Amber for gold without really good odds in my favor because as we all know Amber is inconsistent.

Bring back vbookie!!!

As for Zeigler, people were speculating it's because of the potential prize money at 4CC. And with the Japanese and Korean ladies in the mix to factor into those top six spots... and then add in this "mystery injury" Zeigler has... who knows? It's definitely confusing to me as well.

 

[On My Own]

Sometimes tea leaves just read "tea"

How do you even read a lump of leaves. It's such a ridiculous thing to try and do.

 

[PRlady]

If I were betting I'd hesitate to put money on Amber for gold without really good odds in my favor because as we all know Amber is inconsistent. No one can possibly predict that she is going to be at her best at a particular competition and given how she has skated when she has not been at her best she's not going to be held up by the judges if another skater skates well. Its exciting to go into it thinking Amber is going to have two great skates but no one can know that!

Its a good time to bet against Isabeau given the problems she has had. But who knows about that either.

Ava Ziegler could have won this if both Amber and Isabeau had off comps which is certainly a significant possibility. So I don't get her choosing 4CC over Nationals. Isn't winning or medaling at Nationals a bigger deal than 4CCs?

Not financially, see prize money for 4Cs above. On top of which, except for Kaori the Japanese are not fielding their strongest team ever; Lee is inconsistent and Kim is young. The chances of medaling at 4Cs are decent.

 

[Frau Muller]

Yesterday’s full TODAY show here:

Watch: TODAY All Day - Jan. 22

Watch TODAY Show favorites, celebrity interviews, show exclusives, food, recipes, lifestyle tips and more on TODAY All Day, a streaming network from TODAY.» ...

www.youtube.com

Ava & Amber are seen warming up at the Rockefeller Rink at about 2:09 mark. I’ll let others find the interview as I’m in a meeting.

 

[BlueRidge]

Not financially, see prize money for 4Cs above. On top of which, except for Kaori the Japanese are not fielding their strongest team ever; Lee is inconsistent and Kim is young. The chances of medaling at 4Cs are decent.

I'm not keen on the devaluing of Nationals.

 

[Private Citizen]

Anyone betting on Amber Glenn has more money than sense . Though I'll be cheering, along with probably Isabeau Levito, if Glenn has her "Galindo" moment at Nationals.

And Thorngren, not Levito, is the skater with career-limiting technique issues: she has chronic underrotation issues caused by a "squatty" jump technique, plus a severe lip. She's always going to be dependent on benevolent callers. The Karen Chen treatment is the best she can hope for, and even that is a stretch.

If the World team is Glenn and Thorngren, I think the US has a real danger of going down to one spot -- i.e., neither skater in the top 12. (FWIW, I think the same is true if it's either of the above + Ziegler, too, given her short program struggles.)

 

[Jayar]

I would imagine money is a consideration as well.

USFS won't pay her travel for Nationals but they will for 4CC.

There's no prize money on the line at Nationals, but if you medal at 4CC you get thousands in prize money. I don't recall how much it is for 2nd or 3rd, but 1st is $30k - which is a huge chunk of your training costs.

Then there's funding envelopes. Once upon a time Nationals determined a lot about your funding package and what USFS team you were on - but over the last decade or so there's been a much greater emphasis on international results when determining funding and teams. So placing 3rd at 4CC may benefit her more in that aspect than placing third at Nationals.

Perhaps no funding from US Figure Skating, but the USOPC does also provide funding for Olympic hopefuls based on placement. I don't know the specifics, but that might be a consideration also.

 

[Wyliefan]

The Ziegler thing is really strange and we'll probably be talking about it for ages, but the Occam's Razor explanation, based on all we know, seems to be that she had an injury, wasn't ready for two competitions back to back, needed a bit more recovery time, and decided to go for the later competition.

I think nationals does mean something, and I really would have loved to see her become a national medalist (or champion), but if she can't, she can't.

I have no explanation for why she was still asked to promote nationals on the Today show, though. (But it was nice to see her nonetheless.)

 

[BlueRidge]

The Ziegler thing is really strange and we'll probably be talking about it for ages, but the Occam's Razor explanation, based on all we know, seems to be that she had an injury, wasn't ready for two competitions back to back, needed a bit more recovery time, and decided to go for the later competition.

I think nationals does mean something, and I really would have loved to see her become a national medalist (or champion), but if she can't, she can't.

I have no explanation for why she was still asked to promote nationals on the Today show, though. (But it was nice to see her nonetheless.)

Yes hopefully it is just an injury caused one-off but its really disappointing.

 

[On My Own]

I have no explanation for why she was still asked to promote nationals on the Today show, though. (But it was nice to see her nonetheless.)

Well unless she had a throat injury I don't see why not.

 

[Wyliefan]

Well unless she had a throat injury I don't see why not.

Because it seems a little odd to help promote a competition you won't be at.

 

[On My Own]

Because it seems a little odd to help promote a competition you won't be at.

It's just promotion. She gets some facetime, and she'll be at a major championship a few days after Nationals anyway...

 

[Vagabond]

Isn't winning or medaling at Nationals a bigger deal than 4CCs?

Not necessarily. Doing it at Four Continents (no easy feat), would earn World Standings points, more international recognition, and possibly more immediate money.

 

[Firedancer]

Article on Isabeau ahead of nationals:

https://www.nbcsports.com/olympics/news/isabeau-levito-figure-skating-nationals-championships

 

[slicekw]

Article on Isabeau ahead of nationals:

https://www.nbcsports.com/olympics/news/isabeau-levito-figure-skating-nationals-championships

After reading the things said about Isabeau on this thread, and reading this article, I wonder if it has crossed the minds of folks that she's 16, she's allowed to have some room to grow and make mistakes, and the last thing we want is another wonderful skater crashing and burning because of pressure. TBH, if USFSA is backing off on her, it's entirely possible that it's by request. A good parent would kick ass for their kid if they need a little room.
Also, I can't blame Ziegler - the wonderkind mantle is heavy and lined with spikes and if she needs a little time and space to adjust to that, plus the trip halfway around the world for 4C's, well maybe USFSA is finally showing some compassion. Stupid of them to schedule this late in January, anyway.

I'd love to never see another face at the beginning of a skate like Michele Kwan (rarely) had, or Jeremy, or Gracie - no pukefaces or stressed stony robot faces. I want these young people to look excited and ready to show us their best. Frankly, if USFSA can't ensure that is possible for the skaters, then they need an overhaul.

 

[Theatregirl1122]

And who knows - maybe USFS offered her a deal for worlds consideration and maybe they didn't - but surely if she does well at 4CC she can't be out of the conversation.

If USFSA names the team on the Sunday or Monday after the end of nationals, what she does at 4CC won't matter.

 

[toddlj]

I think the assessments of Thorngren's progress seem harsh. As a kid she was winning junior medals left and right. She since struggled with a growth spurt. She's getting through it. Some skaters quit in the same scenario. Maybe we should attempt to be supportive instead of tearing folks down all the time.

 

[Private Citizen]

Criticizing Levito's technique while not mentioning Thorngren's seems like pointing out the speck in one's eye while ignoring the plank in another's.

 

[On My Own]

Criticizing Levito's technique while not mentioning Thorngren's seems like pointing out the speck in one's eye while ignoring the plank in another's.

How much worse do you believe Thorngren's technique is, I ask as someone who never manages to remember her

 

[Karen-W]

How much worse do you believe Thorngren's technique is, I ask as someone who never manages to remember her

It's no worse than Levito's, but @Private Citizen has all the feels for his South Jersey/Philly girl over the North Jersey/New York girl.

 

[tony]

I disagree with the above. Levito's technique may be very down-up-down and putting the brakes on before she goes into most of her jumps, but Thorngren's technique that she's learned (and probably will never unlearn) is to a more severe level IMO. 'Squatty' and twisty technique is absolutely right, and she more often than not comes down way early on her second triples in combination while getting zero ice coverage and trying to force the rotations. Levito has learned how to sink down into her landings and at least keep some of that flow that often isn't existent for Lindsay.

I love, love, love Thorngren's short-- probably easily my favorite womens' program of the season. But I feel like she's another Nagasu or even Miyahara where she's at the mercy of a lenient technical panel if she's going to really succeed at this point. ETA- the flip should always be an 'e' call, much like Sakamoto and her Lutz. There's no correct edge there, not even an attempt.

 

[Private Citizen]

How much worse do you believe Thorngren's technique is

A lot. People get obsessed with Levito's ugly upper body, mainly on the lutz, but aren't paying attention to the other aspects of her jumps.

Thorngren almost always gets ! to full-fledged "e" on her flip, while Levito has (to the best of my knowledge) never gotten an "e" call and usually escapes with no call or !, which is a huge difference in base value and GOE.

Thorngren frequently gets < calls, while Levito is normally q to clean.

I will say that Levito's lutz is looking flutzier to me this season, and she is getting more q (and occasional <) calls than in the past. But I am quite confident that a quantitative analysis of protocols will factually substantiate the above, opinions aside.

This is kind of like everyone ragging on Sasha Cohen's technique, when Jenny Kirk's was worse (and ignored or even praised). I called that then, too

 

[Frau Muller]

It's no worse than Levito's, but @Private Citizen has all the feels for his South Jersey/Philly girl over the North Jersey/New York girl.

Thorngren has a bigger torso, which could hurt the stability of jumps. She has a great lunge and backbend in spins, though.

 

[VGThuy]

A lot. People get obsessed with Levito's ugly upper body, mainly on the lutz, but aren't paying attention to the other aspects of her jumps.

Thorngren almost always gets ! to full-fledged "e" on her flip, while Levito has (to the best of my knowledge) never gotten an "e" call and usually escapes with no call or !, which is a huge difference in base value and GOE.

Thorngren frequently gets < calls, while Levito is normally q to clean.

I will say that Levito's lutz is looking flutzier to me this season, and she is getting more q (and occasional <) calls than in the past. But I am quite confident that a quantitative analysis of protocols will factually substantiate the above, opinions aside.

This is kind of like everyone ragging on Sasha Cohen's technique, when Jenny Kirk's was worse (and ignored or even praised). I called that then, too

Yeah true, but I have to think it’s because a lot more people paid attention to Sasha and saw her as a legitimate contender when Kirk never had that sort of expectation even though Kirk had won 2000 Junior Worlds over Sasha’s 6th place and 2002 4CC though Sasha never competed at any 4CC as far as I know. I think people saw the potential outside of actual results.

 

[Coco]

I am SMH at the words ugly or big being used to describe any aspect of either of these young ladies.

 

[toddlj]

Relentless repetitive negativity is tiring. Headed off to cheer threads.

 

[PRlady]

Criticizing Levito's technique while not mentioning Thorngren's seems like pointing out the speck in one's eye while ignoring the plank in another's.

It’s more that I’ve seen a lot more of Isabeau! I think I’ve only seen Thorngren twice this year. With familiarity comes criticism.

 

[On My Own]

I wish I had the motivation to verify what PC said with Thorngren

This is kind of like everyone ragging on Sasha Cohen's technique, when Jenny Kirk's was worse (and ignored or even praised). I called that then, too

On a similar note, IDT I've ever watched Jenny Kirk.

 

[honey]

I’ll put it this way:

Isabeau’s technique is bad in that it won’t be sustainable should she grow. She is mostly landing the jumps now, and they are mostly rotated, but this technique is not going to last for her should her body change from what it is now. It’s also technique that could lead to injury.

Lindsay’s technique is bad in that her jumps are often under (not just talking about combos) and she will forever be at the mercy of a caller as the key to her scores. She will likely be Karen Chen or Mirai Nagasu. I would also say though that her technique has always been a suspect and I’m sure there were many people who noted back when she was a junior that the rotation wouldn’t last once she matured. At 18 it would take some real work to rework her technique into something that would allow her more height/trajectory and speed throughout the combos. It’s not impossible, but usually this kind of work takes years and never fully materializes in competition. And that said, I love the work she has put in to develop into a complete skater. She’s matured into a really nice skater to watch now and that’s very commendable. Her and her team have put a lot of work into other aspects of her skating.