The Dance Hall 11: Movin' On Up 2023-2024

[FSLover17]

For all who are interested, I created a blog post that previews the Top 10 at this year's World Championships in ice dance! Would love to hear people's thoughts - ready to hear everyone disagree with my prediction that Chock/Bates won't win :

2024 Worlds Preview: Ice Dance

My Top Ten Predictions: 1) Piper Gilles/Paul Poirier (CAN) 2) Madison Chock/Evan Bates (USA) 3) Charlene Guignard/Marco Fabbri (ITA) 4) Lilah Fear/Lewis Gibson (GBR) 5) Laurence Fournier-Beaudry/Ni…

blissful-sarahtiwa1.wordpress.com

 

[Karen-W]

For all who are interested, I created a blog post that previews the Top 10 at this year's World Championships in ice dance! Would love to hear people's thoughts - ready to hear everyone disagree with my prediction that Chock/Bates won't win :

2024 Worlds Preview: Ice Dance

My Top Ten Predictions: 1) Piper Gilles/Paul Poirier (CAN) 2) Madison Chock/Evan Bates (USA) 3) Charlene Guignard/Marco Fabbri (ITA) 4) Lilah Fear/Lewis Gibson (GBR) 5) Laurence Fournier-Beaudry/Ni…

blissful-sarahtiwa1.wordpress.com

Ehhhhh... I think the "home crowd" bump for GilPoir won't be as substantial as many think - ticket sales are not good and there seem to be just as many Americans going as Canadians here on FSU, plus you have to factor into the equation the local crowd support for IAM skaters. I do think the Canadian bump will nab GilPoir the silver ahead of GuiFab though.

I also think that CarPon are in a good position to beat TurkVer. They only lost to them in Finland and one should never underestimate the USFS' political pull to get them a higher placement than you might expect based on the first half of the season - people underestimated them last year heading into Worlds too.

FBSoer are a huge question mark to me, as are LajLag. If LajLag are back in good form, I think they're going to surprise and beat FBSoer. In that scenario, the question becomes just how expendable are FBSoer? Could they be dumped behind both ReedAmbru and LopBri? I think it's possible.

My personal prediction heading into next week -

Gold - Chock/Bates
Silver - Gilles/Poirier
Bronze - Guignard/Fabbri
4th - Fear/Gibson
5th - Lajoie/Lagha
6th - Lopareva/Brissaud
7th - Reed/Ambrulevicius
8th - Fournier Beaudry/Soerensen
9th - Carreira/Ponomarenko
10th - Turkkila/Versluis

And, just for good measure - here are the other 10 teams that will make the FD -

Harris/Chan
Taschlerova/Taschler
Mrazkova/Mrazek
Smart/Dieck
Orihara/Pirinen
Demougeot/Le Mercier
Davis/Smolkin
Komatsubara/Koleto
Lim/Quan
Bratti/Somerville

Janse van Rensburg/Steffan, Bekker/Hernandez and Soucisse/Firus will JUST miss the cut, which will be a shame for all three teams - if I had to pick a dark horse to slide into the FD should either HarChan or KoKo falter I'm gonna go out on a limb here and give it to the Can-Irish Soucisse/Firus - that's where "home support" could play a critical factor.

 

[FSLover17]

Ehhhhh... I think the "home crowd" bump for GilPoir won't be as substantial as many think - ticket sales are not good and there seem to be just as many Americans going as Canadians here on FSU, plus you have to factor into the equation the local crowd support for IAM skaters. I do think the Canadian bump will nab GilPoir the silver ahead of GuiFab though.

I also think that CarPon are in a good position to beat TurkVer. They only lost to them in Finland and one should never underestimate the USFS' political pull to get them a higher placement than you might expect based on the first half of the season - people underestimated them last year heading into Worlds too.

FBSoer are a huge question mark to me, as are LajLag. If LajLag are back in good form, I think they're going to surprise and beat FBSoer. In that scenario, the question becomes just how expendable are FBSoer? Could they be dumped behind both ReedAmbru and LopBri? I think it's possible.

My personal prediction heading into next week -

Gold - Chock/Bates
Silver - Gilles/Poirier
Bronze - Guignard/Fabbri
4th - Fear/Gibson
5th - Lajoie/Lagha
6th - Lopareva/Brissaud
7th - Reed/Ambrulevicius
8th - Fournier Beaudry/Soerensen
9th - Carreira/Ponomarenko
10th - Turkkila/Versluis

And, just for good measure - here are the other 10 teams that will make the FD -

Harris/Chan
Taschlerova/Taschler
Mrazkova/Mrazek
Smart/Dieck
Orihara/Pirinen
Demougeot/Le Mercier
Davis/Smolkin
Komatsubara/Koleto
Lim/Quan
Bratti/Somerville

Janse van Rensburg/Steffan, Bekker/Hernandez and Soucisse/Firus will JUST miss the cut, which will be a shame for all three teams - if I had to pick a dark horse to slide into the FD should either HarChan or KoKo falter I'm gonna go out on a limb here and give it to the Can-Irish Soucisse/Firus - that's where "home support" could play a critical factor.

Interesting! I think I can see most of your predictions coming true up except Lopareva/Brissaud in 6th over F-B/S. I can see their technical strengths pulling them ahead of Reed/Ambrulevicius (though I personally think that the gap established by the latter at Europeans will be too difficult for the French to overcome realistically) but I don't see the Four Continents silver medallists losing to the 4th ranked Europeans team - especially given that F-B/S scored over 10 points more than L/B. I just don't see the judges dropping the Canadians after 4CC, they would have done so beforehand if they were planning to I believe.

As for the remaining teams, what do you see the Top 15 looking like? I'm thinking:

11) Taschlers
12) Demougeot/Le Mercier
13) Davis/Smolkin
14) Smart/Dieck
15) Lim/Quan

Thoughts?

 

[Karen-W]

Interesting! I think I can see most of your predictions coming true up except Lopareva/Brissaud in 6th over F-B/S. I can see their technical strengths pulling them ahead of Reed/Ambrulevicius (though I personally think that the gap established by the latter at Europeans will be too difficult for the French to overcome realistically) but I don't see the Four Continents silver medallists losing to the 4th ranked Europeans team - especially given that F-B/S scored over 10 points more than L/B. I just don't see the judges dropping the Canadians after 4CC, they would have done so beforehand if they were planning to I believe.

As for the remaining teams, what do you see the Top 15 looking like? I'm thinking:

11) Taschlers
12) Demougeot/Le Mercier
13) Davis/Smolkin
14) Smart/Dieck
15) Lim/Quan

Thoughts?

My main thought process in bumping LopBri into 6th ahead of both ReedAmbru and FBSoer is that the FFSG will put all of their political might behind LopBri and propelling them to a top 6 (and thus seeded for next season's GP) finish. I do think it would be shocking for FBSoer to finish behind both of those teams and not in line with the scoring so far this season. As far as them being 4CCs silver medalists... Well, sure, but neither ChoBat nor LajLag were there, so it isn't as if the Top 6 won't have 3 NA/4CC teams if they are dropped in favor of two European teams.

With regards to the Top 15 - Taschlers, DemLeM and DavSmo - yes. Bratti/Somerville will also be in there. 15th will be a fight between LimQuan, SmaDie, KoKo, OriPir, and the Mrazeks - and it will come down to which team skates the cleanest next week. My gut is leaning toward SmaDie - they looked pretty solid at Challenge Cup a few weeks ago despite the tech panel.

 

[PRlady]

I don’t see Bratti/Sometville, a #3 young team at their first Worlds, finishing ahead of the other listed teams except maybe for the Koreans who are also young. They skated really well at Nats so we will see but politically it’s doubtful.

 

[Karen-W]

I don’t see Bratti/Sometville, a #3 young team at their first Worlds, finishing ahead of the other listed teams except maybe for the Koreans who are also young. They skated really well at Nats so we will see but politically it’s doubtful.

Yes, well, CarPon were in the same position last year and still finished 10th. By SB, we'd have the following teams rounding out the Top 15 -

DemLeM
Taschlers
DavSmo
LimQuan
BraSom

16-20 would be -
KoKo
Mrazeks
SmaDie
OriPir
JvRStef

But, I think HarChan will beat JvRStef in the RD because JvRStef's RD SB is from Denis Ten Memorial and HarChan's RD SB is less than .5 behind JvRStef and from 4CCs.

Experience-wise, LimQuan, BraSom, the Mrazeks, SmaDie and OriPir are all making their Worlds debut. SmaDie have a ton of past experience (including the Olympics) to draw upon so they're not quite the novices at this level as the rest of those teams. Same for KoKo - and that level of experience showed at 4CCs when they were in a skate-off with the two brand-new Japanese teams for the Worlds spot. BraSom are certainly new but they have the benefit of competing, domestically, in a field that is easily the deepest in the world with at least 9 senior teams and 1 newly crowned WJC team that would make the FD at Worlds.

We'll see what happens next week but I fully expect BraSom to finish no lower than 14th. They would have to improve their SB by 8 points to catch the Taschlers, DemLeM and DavSmo, so I don't think that will happen. I do think they have enough fed politics behind them to overtake LimQuan though.

 

[Former Lurve Goddess]

I'm terrible at pre-event predictions (as opposed to post-event ones ) but I'm wondering if the Gilles/Poirier versus Chock/Bates judging factions might accidentally end up making Guignard/Fabbri the World Champions.

 

[litenkyckling]

I think not having a US judge on the panel and being on Canadian definitely makes things interesting in particular in regards to the title

 

[Karen-W]

I think not having a US judge on the panel and being on Canadian definitely makes things interesting in particular in regards to the title

I hadn't considered that when I made my predictions. I did think, though, about whether the judges will be inclined to give Canada two golds should SDDes win the pairs title on Thursday. I think if that comes to pass then silver is the highest anyone should expect for GilPoir.

I suspect that CarPon and BraSom rather than ChoBat will be the "losers" without a US judge on the panel. Maybe @PRlady is right about BraSom not making the top 15 after all, and maybe CarPon stagnate and wind up in 10th place again.

 

[Wyliefan]

I did think, though, about whether the judges will be inclined to give Canada two golds

At a Canadian Worlds? UNTHINKABLE.

 

[Karen-W]

At a Canadian Worlds? UNTHINKABLE.

JSF > Skate Canada. GilPoir haven't established themselves as the favorites going in the way Sakamoto, Uno and Miura/Kihara did last season.

 

[Debbie S]

There isn't a CAN judge on the dance panel, either. Of the 13 countries with judges, 7 have teams at IAM (by my quick calculation). Of course, only 9 of those 13 will be drawn for either panel. Actually, the panel looks very similar to last year's. But Japan was a 'neutral' country in terms of the dance contenders.

 

[Sylvia]

Oct. 10, 2023 in this thread:

https://www.isu.org/inside-isu/isu-communications/communications/32133-isu-communication-2594/file

Judges drawn for the Ice Dance event at Worlds 2024:

AUS ESP EST FIN FRA GER HUN ITA JPN LTU NZL POL SVK

Oh, no UK either. (Though Selby could still wind up on the panel). And no Georgia, no Israel. It's a pretty good panel for France, I think.

If ISU follows their own recommendations (which is not a guarantee as they didn't follow them last season for some panels), she shouldn't be as Fear/Gibson were top 5 last season

If we exclude, USA, Italy, Canada and Great Britain as the Feds placed 1-5 at 2023 Worlds, we are left with

Technical controllers

Christine Hurth (France)
David Molina (France)
Christian Bauman (Germany)
Ingrid Charlotte Wolter (Germany)
Halina Gordon Polorak (Poland)
Marcin Kozubek (Poland)

Technical specialists

Borounov Maria, Ms.	Australia
Lyapina Svetlana, Ms.	Australia
MacDonald Monica, Ms.	Australia
Fraser-Lukanin Kristen, Ms.	Azerbaijan
Gustafsson Pia-Maria, Ms.	Finland
Petetin Roxane, Ms.	France
Blum Benjamin, Mr.	Germany
Caruso Stefano Mattia, Mr.	Germany
Chait Moracci Galit, Ms.	Israel
Higashino Ayako, Ms.	Japan
Tsuzuki Nakako, Ms.	Japan
Gijtenbeek Marie-Louise, Ms.	Netherlands
Budner-Szuman Joanna, Ms.	Poland
Dostatni Andrzej, Mr.	Poland
Krytskaya Anna, Ms	Poland
Nowak-Trebacka Sylwia, Ms.	Poland
Grincova Slavka, Ms.	Slovakia
Kika Tomas, Mr.	Slovakia
Yang Tae-Hwa, Ms.	South Korea
Akimova Olga, Ms.	Ukraine
Baranov Sergei, Mr.	Ukraine
Tumanovskaya Maria, Ms.	Ukraine

Petetin wouldn't be considered as she is still listed as part-time coach of Lapareva/Brissaud. Maybe there are others in that list who have a potential entry.

 

[Andrea82]

The judge named by Australian Fed is Patricia Moritz
New Zealand is sending Sandra Williamson-Leadley.
Both are at first Senior Worlds judging.
Lithuanian judge is the usual Laimute Krauziene who has been around for ages. She judged at 2010, 2014 and 2022 Olympics. She once managed to get a reprimand from ISU for having spent half of a Pairs free program talking to Babenko in Russian while skaters were performing.
Estonian judge is Larissa Shuljateva.
Both Shuljateva and Krauziene were in 2023 World panel too.

 

[PRlady]

I'm terrible at pre-event predictions (as opposed to post-event ones ) but I'm wondering if the Gilles/Poirier versus Chock/Bates judging factions might accidentally end up making Guignard/Fabbri the World Champions.

Shades of Cappellini/LaNotte. It could become an Italian tradition.

 

[deegee]

Shades of Cappellini/LaNotte. It could become an Italian tradition.

here for it!

 

[Andrea82]

If ISU follows their own recommendations (which is not a guarantee as they didn't follow them last season for some panels), she shouldn't be as Fear/Gibson were top 5 last season

ISU Code of Ethics
When appointing the members of the Technical Panel and the Referees for ISU Senior Championships, whenever possible, there shall be no appointments of Officials from ISU Members whose Skaters can reasonably be expected to place 1 – 5 in the respective discipline. In case this is not possible, all members of the Technical Panel and the Referee for the respective discipline shall, whenever possible, be from ISU Members whose Skater(s) can reasonably be expected to place 1 – 5 in the respective discipline at the ISU Championships concerned.

And what did they do? They went for an all top 5 panel!

Referee: Jennifer Mast (USA)
Technical controller: Hillary Selby (Great Britain)
Technical specialist: Marie Bowness (born McNeil) (Canada)
Technical specialist: Fabrizio Pedrazzini (Italy)

 

[Debbie S]

ISU Code of Ethics
When appointing the members of the Technical Panel and the Referees for ISU Senior Championships, whenever possible, there shall be no appointments of Officials from ISU Members whose Skaters can reasonably be expected to place 1 – 5 in the respective discipline. In case this is not possible, all members of the Technical Panel and the Referee for the respective discipline shall, whenever possible, be from ISU Members whose Skater(s) can reasonably be expected to place 1 – 5 in the respective discipline at the ISU Championships concerned.

And what did they do? They went for an all top 5 panel!

Referee: Jennifer Mast (USA)
Technical controller: Hillary Selby (Great Britain)
Technical specialist: Marie Bowness (born McNeil) (Canada)
Technical specialist: Fabrizio Pedrazzini (Italy)

That would seem to favor G/P and G/F, based on those actually calling the elements. Unless they're scared of the ref.

Yeah, they need to stay away from the top 5 countries. I was thinking Dostatni and Poltorak (sp?) would be the callers.

 

[Karen-W]

ISU Code of Ethics
When appointing the members of the Technical Panel and the Referees for ISU Senior Championships, whenever possible, there shall be no appointments of Officials from ISU Members whose Skaters can reasonably be expected to place 1 – 5 in the respective discipline. In case this is not possible, all members of the Technical Panel and the Referee for the respective discipline shall, whenever possible, be from ISU Members whose Skater(s) can reasonably be expected to place 1 – 5 in the respective discipline at the ISU Championships concerned.

And what did they do? They went for an all top 5 panel!

Referee: Jennifer Mast (USA)
Technical controller: Hillary Selby (Great Britain)
Technical specialist: Marie Bowness (born McNeil) (Canada)
Technical specialist: Fabrizio Pedrazzini (Italy)

I mean... There's only an Italian judge in the pool, right?

That's just nuts, though, lol.

FWIW - Peter Cain (USA) is one of the tech specialists on the Pairs panel. And the men's panel has:

Technical Controller	Ms. Yukiko OKABE	ISU (JPN)
Technical Specialist	Mr. Terry KUBICKA	ISU (USA)
Technical Specialist	Ms. Jae Eun CHUNG	ISU (KOR)

 

[Andrea82]

I mean... There's only an Italian judge in the pool, right?

That's just nuts, though, lol.

FWIW - Peter Cain (USA) is one of the tech specialists on the Pairs panel. And the men's panel has:

​

Technical Controller	Ms. Yukiko OKABE	ISU (JPN)
Technical Specialist	Mr. Terry KUBICKA	ISU (USA)
Technical Specialist	Ms. Jae Eun CHUNG	ISU (KOR)

I was saying the same but then I remembered Cain is representing Australia.
Men was another panel matching last year's top 5.
And in Pairs they also had Konig (Germany) in the panel because the appointment were made in the summer when Hase/Volodin weren't in the mix.

 

[ross_hy]

Is it just me, or is IAM posting their skaters in their countdown to Worlds in the order they think the skaters will finish?
Link

 

[skatingguy]

Is it just me, or is IAM posting their skaters in their countdown to Worlds in the order they think the skaters will finish?
Link

No because I don't think Lajoie/Lagha will drop below Reed/Ambrulevcius or Lopareva/Brissaud.

 

[litenkyckling]

Is it just me, or is IAM posting their skaters in their countdown to Worlds in the order they think the skaters will finish?
Link

Are they not doing it by world standing?

 

[Wyliefan]

I have a feeling that when it's F-B/S's turn, they're going to regret having ever started this.

 

[Debbie S]

I have a feeling that when it's F-B/S's turn, they're going to regret having ever started this.

I would assume they'll turn off comments on that post.

 

[Karen-W]

Are they not doing it by world standing?

That's what I believe too.

 

[ross_hy]

Are they not doing it by world standing?

Good call - looks like that's the case.

 

[RoseRed]

ISU Code of Ethics
When appointing the members of the Technical Panel and the Referees for ISU Senior Championships, whenever possible, there shall be no appointments of Officials from ISU Members whose Skaters can reasonably be expected to place 1 – 5 in the respective discipline. In case this is not possible, all members of the Technical Panel and the Referee for the respective discipline shall, whenever possible, be from ISU Members whose Skater(s) can reasonably be expected to place 1 – 5 in the respective discipline at the ISU Championships concerned.

And what did they do? They went for an all top 5 panel!

Referee: Jennifer Mast (USA)
Technical controller: Hillary Selby (Great Britain)
Technical specialist: Marie Bowness (born McNeil) (Canada)
Technical specialist: Fabrizio Pedrazzini (Italy)

I guess the logic is that it's better to do all top 5 than only one or two of them, if they're going to do it at all? That seems like ISU logic. Of course, it doesn't explain why they don't just stick to their own recommendation. But as I said, ISU.

 

[Dobre]

Having watched two little fourth grade classes scream for the Canadian pairs in practice yesterday, I can confirm that there will be more than enough Canadian supporters in the crowd to make a huge impact.

The crowd will respond to every little subtle movement that the Canadians perform here. It will hype up many of the skaters (and give nerves to some of them) and the skaters will respond.

 

[Sylvia]

Chock/Bates Q&A with Phil Hersh (March 19):

"It's how you do it:" world champions Chock and Bates talk life, Olympic medals, and career plans

Madison Chock and Evan Bates look to win a second consecutive world title this week in Montreal. They spoke with NBC about their goals, their long and successful career, and about being a couple off the ice.

www.nbcsports.com