Early predictions/analysis on how post Olympic worlds might go

[judgejudy27]

I know a lot of people find post Olympic worlds anticlimatic but some of my favorite ever memories come from post Olympic worlds. Underhill & Martini's big upset win over the Olympic Champions on home ice after their heartbreaking Olympics. Valova & Vassiliev's own huge win over G&G in 88 after their aforementioned upset loss right after winning the Olympics in 84. Sato's win on home ice in 94. Peggy Schwarz finally getting a world medal in 98. Meno & Sand ending their career on home ice winning the short program and getting a world silver medal, after their devastating Olympics.

More recently Meissner's upset win which would be her career high point at the 2006 worlds with a specatacular 2 triple-triple performance. Pang & Tong's first world title in 2006 after controversially being placed behind both their teammates (Zhangs and Shen & Zhao) at the Games, and beating the Zhangs to do it to boot. Lepisto winning Finland's first ladies world medal in a long time in 2010. Lambiel winning his 2nd world title with a beautiful skate, and Takahashi finally winning worlds.

This year will probably have a lot of absences but should have some great competition. I could see something like:

Men- I am pretty sure Chan and Fernandez have already confirmed they arent going, although Fernandez might continue after this season. Hanyu is likely continuing as an amateur but is unlikely to go to worlds due to his injuries. So on paper it will likely be another Uno vs Chen battle, with Boyang also a strong contender. So far Chen has had the edge in this match up winning the vast majority of his head to heads with Uno it seems. I have a feeling Uno will squeek out a narrow win though with Chen skating a much better short program than the Games but a slightly weaker long. I think Uno will be more relaxed and skate better in both programs than he did both at the Games and the GPF. I could see one of Russians skating great and pushing Boyang out for the bronze, particularly Kolyada who is hit or miss but I think will be determined to make up for his disaesterous Olympics and reclaim himself as Russian #1 which a world medal would do handily. Kolyada could even potentially do better than bronze with a great skate as he has the difficulty, and unlike someone like Boyang the judges are more than willing to give him high GOE and PCS if he skates well too.

Ladies- It will probably be something similar to the Games but I could see the 2 Russian ladies having a letdown for Worlds, both the one who wins, and the dissapointed loser. I could see someone like Osmond or even Miyahara having an inspired skate to win. It doesnt look likely Daleman can medal now, so I could see her coming back strong at Worlds and winning a medal. Could also see Kostner medaling in her swan song.

Pairs- It will probably be Savchenko & Massot vs Sui & Han for the gold again, but I wouldnt discount Tarasova & Morozov either. Still their LP is so poorly choreographed they wont win even with 2 great skates unless S&M or S&H miss something in the short as S&M did at the Games, or one of them has problems in the long. I have a feeling S&M will pull out the gold, as Bruno will be determined to get a world title before he retires, and I dont see them going all the way through to 2022. I could see one of the Italian teams winning a bronze in a big upset, particularly Marchei & Hotarek, if any of the top 3 make mistakes.

Dance- With Virtue & Moir out, Papadakis & Cizeron should win their 3rd world title easily (although I think they would prefer V&M to be competing and to try and beat them for it). I could see Hubbell & Donohue fighting back after their crushing Olympic LP to claim silver. The Shibutanis obviously have a high likelihood to medal again. I could see either Weaver & Poje or Chock & Bates making a big comeback from their lackluster Games to medal, less likely for C&B though as politically they are only U.S #3 while W&P will be back to Canada #1 status which will help them get a scoring bump again if they skate well. And Bobrova & Soloviev,, if they are planning to compete (which I am not sure of) might medal as they have had a good latter season, and C&L with the boost of home country scoring could slip in for a bronze as well.

 

[Twilight1]

Men- I definitely see Chen winning overall
Pairs- Sui & Han or Queen Alijona and Bruno
Dance- P&C, and as much as I would like to see W&P on there, think it will be 2 American teams
Ladies- Russian ladies 1,2 and who knows...

 

[judgejudy27]

I think the dance will probably be Hubbell & Donohue and the Shibutanis on the podium after P&C and I have a suspicion H&D will come out on top this time. However I think W&P have a stronger chance than Chock & Bates for sure. W&P are back to Canadian #1 so their scores and PCS will automatically rise, particularly if they skate well which they didnt especialy do at the Games. C&B are clearly U.S #3 now so it would take a lot of problems by the whole group to get them on the podium.

Interesting you are so confident in Chen easily beating Uno. I think Chen might well win, but Uno has far outdone Chen in the major events so far, and dealt with the pressure a lot better. Chen did score much higher in the Olympic LP but he had far less pressure on him as he wasnt in medal contention anymore while Uno had all the pressure on the world skating last and needing a strong skate to medal and near perfect skate to win. I think it will be very close, at the GPF neither skated great, but Uno skated worst and had many more mistakes, and still would have won without a silly time deduction. PCS clearly favors Uno, base value Chen but not by as much as he has on some others, GOE about even, consistency usually favors Uno too, especialy in major events (unless you count GPF as a major event) thus far.

 

[levineismine]

I think these particular post Olys worlds will be exciting. We don't have too many big names skipping except in the mens field, but in the rest of the disciplines it seems that only the top Canadians are done, most of the veterans are staying at least for Words.
The big reshuffling will be next year, more in Men and dance I think than pairs and ladies where the fields shouldn't drop too much.

 

[Vash01]

Worlds without Yuzuru and Javier - heart breaking.
I expect to see Shoma, Boyang, Nathan on the podium, in any order, but i have a soft spot for Boyang.

Ladies- I think they will all be there, except perhaos the OGM winner. I expect to see one Japanese lady on the podium.

Pairs- May be this time S&H will skate clean and beat S&M. In the individual and GPF, S&H's mistakes (S&M clean both times) Cost them the gold. I am hoping that T&M will win the bronze, but i may prefer Stolbova and Klimov get it this time. If they don't, m choice would be for Marchei and Hotarek, with a great performance.

Ice dance - P&C should win, perhaps with a more secure costume for the SD. I expect two US teams on The podium but it is hard to predict the order. I am not a fan of C&B, but i would like to see them tedeem themselves. Would love to see the Shibs win a silver though. Would like to see Stepanova- Bukin in top five.

 

[judgejudy27]

@Vash01, while you are right Sui & Han's errors are the Games (not sure about the GPF) cost them the win, Savchenko & Massot were not clean there. Yes their LP was clean and spectacular but their SP had a huge mistake which probably cost them 5-6 points minimum (considering the positive GOE they would have gotten, and maybe a tiny bit in PCS) which is the only reason they barely won over Sui & Han who had mistakes in the LP. If both teams are clean I think it would be very close. At the GPF which is the only program both have skated cleanly thus far S&M won handily by several points but they also had the advantage of being the short program leaders and skating last. Tarasova & Morozov would also be right up with both if clean in the short based on scoring so far this year, but likely clearly behind in the long in that scenario although who knows for sure as they havent had a totally clean LP all season. If S&M skated after Sui & Han in the LP they would might also opt to go for a throw triple axel if they felt they needed it, although they showed at both the GPF and Olympics they can be nearly unbeatable in the LP even without it.

 

[AxelAnnie]

Nathan has been skating injured and is now sick. I hope he skips worlds
Sui is skating injured....stay home.

 

[Vash01]

@Vash01, while you are right Sui & Han's errors are the Games (not sure about the GPF) cost them the win, Savchenko & Massot were not clean there. Yes their LP was clean and spectacular but their SP had a huge mistake which probably cost them 5-6 points minimum (considering the positive GOE they would have gotten, and maybe a tiny bit in PCS) which is the only reason they barely won over Sui & Han who had mistakes in the LP. If both teams are clean I think it would be very close. At the GPF which is the only program both have skated cleanly thus far S&M won handily by several points but they also had the advantage of being the short program leaders and skating last. Tarasova & Morozov would also be right up with both if clean in the short based on scoring so far this year, but likely clearly behind in the long in that scenario although who knows for sure as they havent had a totally clean LP all season. If S&M skated after Sui & Han in the LP they would might also opt to go for a throw triple axel if they felt they needed it, although they showed at both the GPF and Olympics they can be nearly unbeatable in the LP even without it.

You are correct. I completely forgot about S&M's mistake in the SP. I suspectbit drove them to give the LP all that they had.

At the GPF it was Han who made a mistake in the sbs jumps in the SP.

 

[berthesghost]

I wouldn’t be confident about who’s going to be at worlds before the Olys are even over.