Who will make 2017 GPF in Ladies?

[haribobo]

With 3 down, the contedors have solidified...

 

[DDNatalia]

Hoping Satoko will be ready to do battle. No question she has the goods.

 

[Sylvia]

Current standings after 3 GP events: http://www.isuresults.com/events/gp2017/gpsladies.htm

Evgenia MEDVEDEVA RUS 15 (231.21) + NHK Trophy
Alina ZAGITOVA RUS 15 (213.88) + FRA
Kaetlyn OSMOND CAN 15 (212.91) + FRA
Carolina KOSTNER ITA 13 (215.98) + NHK
Maria SOTSKOVA RUS 13 (192.52) + FRA
Ashley WAGNER USA 11 (183.94) + Skate America
Mai MIHARA JPN 9 (206.07) + FRA

Satoko MIYAHARA JPN - NHK & Skate America
Polina TSURSKAYA RUS - NHK & Skate America

Wakaba HIGUCHI JPN 11 + 13 = 24 (419.69)
Elena RADIONOVA RUS 9 + 11 = 20 (402.34)

 

[tony]

Sotskova definitely needs a 2nd place in France or she's out. With Zagitova, Osmond, and Mihara there, it'll be extremely tough.

Medvedeva, Zagitova, and Osmond are all likely fine as long as they are top 4 in their second events.

Kostner has a tough field at NHK but with a strong 3rd place showing, she could bounce in front of Higuchi on the tie breaker. 2nd and she's definitely in.

Mihara can prevent others from making it but unless she wins in France (again, in a field with several other top skaters including Zagitova), she's out.

Wagner would have to win at Skate America to have any chance. Her third place total score was extremely low, even if she were to finish 2nd in America. There's an outside chance.

So, I'm gonna go with Medvedeva, Zagitova, Osmond, Kostner, Higuchi, and then quite possibly Miyahara if she's 100%. The Skate America podium (and even gold medal) is really there for the taking.

 

[Marco]

Agree with Tony, will go out a limb and say the 6th spot goes to Wagner. Bet there will be a friendly caller at Skate America.

 

[npavel]

I agree with Toni for 5 spots, the 6th to Miyahara

 

[npavel]

I get to change the 6th spot for Polina Tsurskaya. Miyahara is not back

 

[tony]

Yeah, agreed. Medvedeva and Kostner are in, Higuchi is probably in, and Osmond and Zagitova also extremely likely to be in after next week.

Sotskova has a first event point total much lower than all of Zagitova, Osmond, and Mihara, so if she doesn't win in France, she's also out.

Tsurskaya's first event total is nearly 30 points higher than Wagner's. A win at Skate America is within reach, and then she's in. Wagner finishing in 2nd would require her to earn 235.75 event points to beat Higuchi on the tie-break. Impossible score.

Mihara could play spoiler if she wins France over Zagitova and Osmond. Her 4th place total event score in China isn't that far off from what Osmond and Zagitova earned to win their events. If that happens, she'd probably knock teammate Higuchi out of the Final.

But the most likely scenario is indeed Medvedeva, Osmond, Zagitova, Tsurskaya, Kostner, and Higuchi.

 

[MAXSwagg]

I can't even watch ladies anymore. The scores are such a joke and it stopped being funny a long time ago. I'm not waking up for this but may watch some videos after.

 

[Sylvia]

Current standings after 4 GP events: http://www.isuresults.com/events/gp2017/gpsladies.htm

Evgenia MEDVEDEVA RUS 15 (231.21) + 15 (224.39) = 30 (455.60)
Carolina KOSTNER ITA 13 (215.98) + 13 (212.24) = 26 (428.22)
Wakaba HIGUCHI JPN 11 (207.17) + 13 (212.52) = 24 (419.69)

Competing next week in France:
Alina ZAGITOVA RUS 15 (213.88)
Kaetlyn OSMOND CAN 15 (212.91)
Maria SOTSKOVA RUS 13 (192.52)
Mai MIHARA JPN 9 (206.07)
Potential spoiler:
Elizaveta TUKTAMYSHEVA RUS 4 (196.68)

Competing at Skate America:
Polina TSURSKAYA RUS 11 (210.19)
Ashley WAGNER USA 11 (183.94)
Potential spoilers:
Kaori SAKAMOTO JPN 7 (194.00)
Satoko MIYAHARA JPN 7 (191.80)
Gabrielle DALEMAN CAN 5 (196.83)
Alena LEONOVA RUS 5 (190.95)
Karen CHEN USA 4 (170.40)
Bradie TENNELL USA (scored 196.70 at CS Lombardia Trophy)

 

[Spun Silver]

But the most likely scenario is indeed Medvedeva, Osmond, Zagitova, Tsurskaya, Kostner, and Higuchi.

I love that lineup, even without any US lady. Not what I would have predicted over the summer! Tsurskaya’s return is such a welcome development. I just hope she can keep going like this despite her scary medical condition.

 

[rhapsody]

Sotskova has a first event point total much lower than all of Zagitova, Osmond, and Mihara, so if she doesn't win in France, she's also out.

Sotskova only needs a silver to make it in along with her silver from Canada; Osmond pulling an Osmond can make that happen. I hope it doesn't though because that would kick Higuchi out the final.

 

[tony]

Sotskova only needs a silver to make it in along with her silver from Canada; Osmond pulling an Osmond can make that happen. I hope it doesn't though because that would kick Higuchi out the final.

I already forgot Sotskova was 2nd and not 3rd in Canada But since she does have 13 points, I still think it'll be difficult to beat two out of Zagitova, Osmond, and Mihara. If she even beats one of them, she is so far behind Higuchi on total points that a bronze medal (most likely) does her no good.

 

[rhapsody]

I already forgot Sotskova was 2nd and not 3rd in Canada But since she does have 13 points, I still think it'll be difficult to beat two out of Zagitova, Osmond, and Mihara. If she even beats one of them, she is so far behind Higuchi on total points that a bronze medal (most likely) does her no good.

I agree--it's very unlikely that Sotskova will make it, just pointing out that it's not totally impossible. Mihara will also very likely not factor in unless she wins in France or both Tsurskaya and Wagner finish no higher than 3rd in the US (the likelihood of that is near zero).

I think your prediction of Medvedeva, Zagitova, Osmond, Kostner, and Higuchi is spot on though. Whoever ends up winning Skate America will get the last spot (my money's on Tsurskaya).

 

[Coco]

If good Karen shows up at Skate America, Ashley might not make the final group. I hope she shows up ready to fight.

 

[Foolhardy Ham Lint]

I thought Tsurskaya was underrmarked (or conversely, Kostner and Medvedeva were shamelessly overmarked in the free skate) and should have won NHK. Both of her programs have a delightful, understated elegance to them.

 

[MAXSwagg]

I thought Tsurskaya was underrmarked (or conversely, Kostner and Medvedeva were shamelessly overmarked in the free skate) and should have won NHK. Both of her programs have a delightful, understated elegance to them.

It was definitely that Kostner and Medvedeva were overmarked. Kostner should only be getting those marks if she's top notch (which means not just landing her straggly jumps, but landing them with quality). Medvedeva IMO shouldn't be at 70 PCS even at her best. But the judges standard, they considered both of the programs OUTSTANDING and essentially PERFECT. It's a JOKE.

 

[AngieNikodinovLove (ANL)]

If good Karen shows up at Skate America, Ashley might not make the final group. I hope she shows up ready to fight.

Ash not being in final flight is usually a good indicator she will then medal....

 

[Foolhardy Ham Lint]

She was probably never in the running, but Alena Leonova gave my favourite ladies' free skate at NHK.

 

[tony]

Well it's all switched up again.

Going into Skate America:
Medvedeva 30 Points - 455.60
Zagitova - 30 Points - 427.68
Osmond - 26 Points - 419.68 (1st and 3rd)
Kostner - 26 Points - 428.22 (2nd and 2nd)
Sotskova - 26 Points - 401.30
--
Higuchi - 24 Points 419.69

A win at Skate America for either Wagner or Tsurskaya puts them in the Final. A win by anyone else, and that skater won't qualify to the GPF. A second place for Tsurskaya (and Wagner not winning) with at least 209.51 points makes the Final, almost the same as she earned in her first event. Wagner with a second place (and Tsurskaya not winning) has way too many points to make up on the tie-break so she'd be out and Higuchi would be in.

 

[rhapsody]

Sotskova only needs a silver to make it in along with her silver from Canada; Osmond pulling an Osmond can make that happen. I hope it doesn't though because that would kick Higuchi out the final.

Osmond indeed pulled an Osmond and handed Sotskova the silver medal and a ticket to GPF.

I now need new Satoko to be old Satoko and kill it at Skate America to get Higuchi in the final. I belieeeeeve in you.

 

[tony]

I now need new Satoko to be old Satoko and kill it at Skate America to get Higuchi in the final. I belieeeeeve in you.

Or Daleman. Or a rejuvenated Pogorilaya (not likely).

 

[DobrinFan]

Osmond indeed pulled an Osmond and handed Sotskova the silver medal and a ticket to GPF.

Thanks Kaetlyn! I should by you flowers or a gift the next time I see you skate Too bad it comes at the expense of Wakaba The Japanese fed need better politicking or something.

 

[rhapsody]

Or Daleman. Or a rejuvenated Pogorilaya (not likely).

Building an alter for Daleman now. Bitch better utilize those huge ass press-on nails to claw her way to the top.

 

[tony]

Wrong thread.

 

[Foolhardy Ham Lint]

Well it's all switched up again.

Going into Skate America:
Medvedeva 30 Points - 455.60
Zagitova - 30 Points - 427.68
Osmond - 26 Points - 419.68 (1st and 3rd)
Kostner - 26 Points - 428.22 (2nd and 2nd)
Sotskova - 26 Points - 401.30
--
Higuchi - 24 Points 419.69

A win at Skate America for either Wagner or Tsurskaya puts them in the Final. A win by anyone else, and that skater won't qualify to the GPF. A second place for Tsurskaya (and Wagner not winning) with at least 209.51 points makes the Final, almost the same as she earned in her first event. Wagner with a second place (and Tsurskaya not winning) has way too many points to make up on the tie-break so she'd be out and Higuchi would be in.

My money is on Tsurskaya winning in Lake Placid. Of all the Russian contenders (Medvedeva, Zagitova, and Sotskova), her short and free skates are my favourites this season.

Just not getting the Zagitova love. She is an excellent athlete, but after the two minute mark she might as well be in the Kentucky Derby.

 

[olympic]

I think Tsurskaya wins SA and maybe Wagner 2nd. I think that means Wagner out.

 

[Amantide]

I'm really hoping for Polina. Not gonna be easy though.

 

[shady82]

I'm predicting Polina to win as well. However, I'm more optimistic about Satoko than most here. Her jumps were kinda rusty last week, but that didn't surprise me since it's her first competition back from injury. We saw Polina in the Russian Cup series and she was already doing pretty well. Once Satoko gets back into her previous shape (or if), she'll be the best Japanese lady. In terms of Olympic qualifications, she is the biggest wildcard to me. So she might be a surprise. I really hope Ashley does not get home inflation just cause she's in SA, because she hasn't been particularly impressively lately. Gabby's LP is pretty poor, I think her scoring ceiling is lower than last year.

It must be said, the Japanese ladies have really been getting the shaft this past year. First, they only have two spots, though I guess Wakaba and/or Rika are at fault for this. They could have kept three spots for Japan had they skated decently at Worlds. The other ladies are all getting generously scored by the judges. There's no secret Medvedeva, Zagitova, and Kostner are getting inflated scores. But so are Kaetlyn and Gabby. I'm big fans of them, but they are rewarded handsomely when they skate well and punished mildly when they don't. The Japanese ladies are not getting sufficient credit in PCS. It's unfortunate that Higuchi may not be going to the GPF this year, as she certainly skates like she deserves it.

 

[DreamSkates]

If good Karen shows up at Skate America, Ashley might not make the final group. I hope she shows up ready to fight.

This is THE year to fight every competition.