What does re-opening look like?

Louis

Private citizen
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14,349
So for me, keeping things closed has a huge social justice component, so that non-essential retail and restaurants etc are not forcing their workers to make that choice.
Nobody wants anybody to choose between their life and their job.

There are also social justice components to keeping things closed - e.g., my niece and nephew have gotten no education since March. They've been truant from online courses because mother doesn't think it's important :rolleyes: and can't figure out the technology herself. Plus, by law, it's all ungraded / optional. Giving them a tablet, etc., isn't going to help - I've already done all that. One of their teachers - whose name I'm trying to get to send flowers or something - dropped off some printed worksheets for the kids, which seems way beyond the call of duty. (I'm grateful, even if "mom" doesn't care.)

These kids are OK students, despite zero parental support, and I worry about the lifelong affects of no school for six or more months during critical years. I can send iPads, laptops, books, etc., but I cannot provide structure and discipline. Only their teachers can.

I've posted about my other niece, who can't go to school but can work at "essential business" Rita's Water Ice. What kind of message is that sending?
 

mag

Well-Known Member
Messages
12,198
@Louis lots of kids miss school for all kinds of reasons and still manage just fine. As an example, my youngest never attended a full day of school five days a week starting in grade 1. She missed a ton of time right up to and including grade twelve (as in weeks at a time in grade 11 and 12) and still managed to graduate with honors. Anecdotal, I know, but doable. Assuming they live in the northern hemisphere, June is generally a write off for learning anyway.

I do worry about the kids who rely on school for proper nutrition or to get away from abusive situations, but academically, there is a ton of time in school that is not strictly academic- lining up, moving from class to class, waiting for other kids, recess, lunch, etc. IMHO, the most important thing is the kids are safe the they aren’t disabled for the rest of their lives by some weird side effect of this disease. Furthermore, assuming they live in the US, getting infected means they will forever more have a pre existing condition that insurance companies can use to deny coverage.

If you are really concerned about academics, get them a tutor when it is safe to do so. Kids can learn a whole years worth of schooling very quickly in a one or one setting.
 

PRlady

Well-Known Member
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34,913
It’s not like the privileged kids are doing so much better. I work with their parents who are trying to sandwich in some schoolwork help in between meetings and it’s not going swimmingly.

The privileged kids will have two living parents, however, which the children of frontline workers might not.
 

MacMadame

Staying at home
Staff member
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34,697
Have we ever had a second wave of anything, post-WWII? I don't believe so. BB a CV, not influenza,
Whether or not there is a second wave depends on how we respond to the first wave. If we use the time gifted to us by the SIP to increase healthcare capacity, contact tracing, testing capacity, then we shouldn't have a second wave. Instead, we'll have occasional hot spots that can quickly be put out. It has nothing to do with influenza vs. c0r*nav*vir*s. After all, the common cold is a c-v and we don't even try to find a vaccine for it because it's not worth it.

Aren't China and Korea having second waves right now? I would love for there to be no second wave, but epidemiology suggests otherwise.
I don't think those are considered waves. Epidemiologists call those hot-spots. If they put them out, then they don't develop into a wave. This is considered the 4th choice in that article on modeling C-19 that I posted the other day. It's the best-case scenario.

The fact remains, we've flattened the curve, and predominantly Democratic governors / mayors are keeping individual citizens locked up and businesses shuttered. (Though no one is calling for full reopening with no restrictions.)
We haven't though. I mean CA has. So have a few other states, I'm sure. (New York?) But the country as a whole has not. Also, it's not Democratic governors and mayors keeping everything shuttered. It's a combination based on the situations in their local area.

I have trouble taking your posts seriously because what you say people should do is exactly what CA did and is doing. But apparently Governor Newsom is a fascist who
  • has put CA into a state of martial law (except one with no curfews, no military in the street, and you can leave your house whenever you want)
  • refuses to open up the state because he'll lose his popularity (even though he was popular before and he's opening up the state)
  • wants to suck on the teat of Federal government due to mismanagement of the budget (you know that same budget that was projected to have a 60+ million surplus after building up our rainy day fund and paying down pension obligations and other debt) and have routinely sent more money to the Feds than we got back in benefits.

Honestly, when you rant on about this stuff you start to sound like Alex Jones.

Btw, if we were in thrall of the epidemiologists, we would not have opened up because we don't meet the CDC's guidelines for opening up. But we are opening up anyway based on our own criteria which were developed using input from epidemiologists and economists. (And which makes more sense than theirs.)
 

Debbie S

Well-Known Member
Messages
12,129
Well, my city and surrounding county will not be reopening (well, the county will have "limited reopening", which means only manufacturing can resume...no salons and retail is still curbside only) tomorrow. Cases still rising and apparently, people aren't answering calls from contact tracers or when they do, aren't providing info. I agree that it seems a bit too early to reopen given the numbers, but what's going to happen is people in the closed counties are going to travel to the open counties to shop, get haircuts, etc, and the YKW cases in the open counties may shoot up. But is it right to keep all counties, including those with very few cases who have all the reopen criteria in place, closed? There is no perfect solution.
 

Prancer

Needs More Sleep
Staff member
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49,945
Different strokes but different folks, but personally knowing 15-20 people who have had *********-19 makes me more relaxed about it. All but one have survived and seem to have no ill effects.
“Every time we experience something and don’t encounter a negative outcome, we get the wrong impression that it's safer than we thought it was." Famous behavioral economist on the subject of why so many people downplay ********.
 

ballettmaus

Well-Known Member
Messages
14,163
I'd be more inclined to trust epidemiologists than economists on questions of whether measures to slow the spread of an epidemic were excessive for that purpose.
I'm under the impression that many economists were in favor of shutdowns and were/are of the opinion that flattening the curve and getting the ***** under control via shutdowns was the best/quickest way to re-open safely and that opening too early would do more harm than good.







  • the so-called Swedish approach
Sweden may not be brought up because there isn't much to see. https://tinyurl.com/yb7nlnrg


There are also social justice components to keeping things closed - e.g., my niece and nephew have gotten no education since March.
That doesn't have to mean that they didn't learn anything.

Maybe I'm missing something but would it really be such a big deal if all children repeated a year? Sure, they'd graduate a year later but at least, they, their teachers, families and friends got to stay healthy and alive and they don't run the risk of having any long-lasting health issues that they might have for the rest of their lives.
 

Louis

Private citizen
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14,349
“Every time we experience something and don’t encounter a negative outcome, we get the wrong impression that it's safer than we thought it was."
Very true, although I don't think that's the instance.

In this case, I have qualitative (what has happened to my acquaintances) and quantitative (the published statistics on worldometer or similar). The fact that they're in sync, in terms of who is most likely to die, need a ventilator, etc., boosts my confidence that we can take a segmented approach to risk.

The media has been full of "you will die!!!!!!!" narratives with "healthy" 30 year olds (except we don't have their medical records or autopsy reports). Both my personal qualitative sample, where I know the high-level medical history pretty well, and the quantitative data gives me full confidence that those are outliers. Some may not want to take a risk of being an outlier - and that's A-OK by me. But we must have freedom to make that choice.

If I were saying that I hung out with someone on 11 March who already had *********-19, didn't get *********-19, and therefore it's not as contagious, then I agree with you.

Maybe I'm missing something but would it really be such a big deal if all children repeated a year?
I'm not completely against this, but I think it's unlikely to work too well unless all children repeat. I'm not an expert on education (others here are). I'd worry that there will be stigma for those who do repeat, and I think there usually is.
 

MsZem

Well-Known Member
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12,997
Maybe I'm missing something but would it really be such a big deal if all children repeated a year? Sure, they'd graduate a year later but at least, they, their teachers, families and friends got to stay healthy and alive and they don't run the risk of having any long-lasting health issues that they might have for the rest of their lives.
School closures can have many adverse effects, not all of which can be mitigated. Distance learning can only partially fill the gap, as not everyone can easily access or use it. When schools close, kids fall behind - and the effects are especially pronounced for low-income children. Many children in special education programs can't just make up the difference a year later. School is a safe environment for children suffering abuse at home, and a place with mandatory reporters. There's a reason why countries that are in good shape in terms of handling CV are bringing kids back to school, and it's not just so that their parents can work.

I understand wanting to play it safe until there's a vaccine, but we also have to play it smart. Louis takes some of his arguments to the extreme, but he's not wrong that there are tradeoffs, and a point at which the benefits of keeping CV cases down comes at a cost that societies cannot bear. This is not just of people's livelihoods (which is bad enough) but also their health (vaccination rates are down, anybody up for a measles outbreak?), their futures, and their lives. The goal has to be to find a model to reopen as safely as possible, not to reduce risks to zero.

More here: https://nyti.ms/3dNNZrG.
 

becca

Well-Known Member
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19,739
I don’t think we are going to get zero cases there has to be a trade off. Because people have to be able to feed families and some elective surgeries are for things like cancer.

People need to feed their families.

My Great Aunt just passed away completely alone of something other than *********. No one was allowed by her side.

People need to come to compromises to because well you cannot keep everyone looked for a year.

It’s possible herd immunity will develop.

However people who refuse to wear masks have my 😡🤬

Freedom comes with responsibilities. A mask is a simple thing.
 
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MacMadame

Staying at home
Staff member
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34,697
I don’t think we are going to get zero cases there has to be a trade off.
So who exactly is saying we need to get to 0 cases before we can get rid of the SIP? I ask this because I am constantly seeing this on my social media feed yet I see no governments implementing it. Or even talking about implementing it. Except for islands who didn't have a lot of cases to start with so it's feasible to go to 0.


Here is an article on what restaurants might look like with a move to more outdoor seating:

And one from Germany where everyone gets a hat with pool noodles on it t keep them social distancing!

On the surface, it seems like a good idea though as was pointed out in the responses, since viruses live on surfaces, this might not work as planned.

And a more general article about what is needed to re-open restaurants:

And some more articles on the restaurant industry and how they are screwed:
 

once_upon

New condo owner
Messages
14,618
We walked the Old Market. Most restaurants that are open have signs that they are open 5-9. I assume because there is no office workers right now. Some are open for dine in, but most are open for take out or delivery. Some remain completely closed. Unless they have a food license bars are still closed.
 

SkateSand

Cat Servant
Messages
522
We have a really good deli here (actually, we have a lot more than just one) which is putting outdoor seating in the parking lot to make up for the current 50% indoor occupancy restrictions. That's fine for right now when the weather is delightful, but in a month or less, it can be 115 F outside. All the restaurants here planning on making up the indoor seating with outdoor seating better have a lot of table umbrellas and water misters handy. :)
 

once_upon

New condo owner
Messages
14,618
One of the deli/wine/restaurant here I think could have technically stayed open because they are a small grocery store that also serves food. They were and are still closed. I liked their wine selection as they had wines from all over the world.
I dont see them open for a long time even if they would use their outdoor eating area.
 

MacMadame

Staying at home
Staff member
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34,697
This is a good article about what public health officers plan to do as things re-open. As in, what they will and will not do and what modifications they would make.


TL/DR - outside is better than inside. If inside, make it a quick trip. Avoid high touch places and/or where social distancing is hard. They won't be going to church for a long, long time and are leery of the gym. Dine-in restaurants are also an issue.
 

once_upon

New condo owner
Messages
14,618
One FB friend posted him drinking a beer in a restaurant. Since the only way to be served alcohol is to have a meal, I assume he was waiting for his meal.

Other friends posted good for you, we arent ready to go out. Speaking to my neighbors (social distancing of course) no one is willing to take the risk. The judge is on the bench the whole month of June. When she has to go into court (most of her casework can be via web) she has asked for a glass partition around the bench.

Retail will be very different. At least in the near future, I cant see people going to try on clothes. I suppose if you are like my younger cousins (my kids ages) and have been longing to wander through Target you might have rushed out. Although my kids aren't.
 

MacMadame

Staying at home
Staff member
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34,697
I suppose if you are like my younger cousins (my kids ages) and have been longing to wander through Target you might have rushed out. Although my kids aren't.
Targets here are open because they sell groceries. But you aren't limited to groceries. I bought some plates with my grocery order the last time I Shipf'ed.
 

SkateSand

Cat Servant
Messages
522
As one of the initial California counties cleared by the state for reopening, our main indoor mall is opening on Monday. Frankly, given the local clientele, I expect it to be pretty busy. Not necessarily by people buying clothes and shoes, but because it was always the in place to be for the local high school kids. I imagine they are anxious to connect with each other in person.
 

snoopy

Well-Known Member
Messages
12,232
Our barbers were open for the first time today so my dad was there by 6:30 in the morning to ensure he could get rid of his Mohawk. I suppose that was the safest time to be there.
 

quartz

almost, but not quite
Messages
13,789
I start back at the bookstore May 25th - anticipating that we will be allowed to open our doors for in-store customers on June 1st. I’m going back to work!!! :cheer2:
 

once_upon

New condo owner
Messages
14,618
With had a google duo call with son and Aubrey (she is so darn cute). I asked about dil return to physical building. He says until the company figures out how to open the daycare they probably wont have a return to office since 70% of the parents working use the company daycare
 

Vagabond

Well-Known Member
Messages
15,730
Re-opening looks like this:


“Omg Jacinda Ardern just tried to come into Olive and was rejected cause it’s full,” a Twitter user named Joey wrote at about midday.

His tweet was accompanied by a ghoulish emoji, suggesting he was horrified that space was not made for the Labour leader, despite restaurants being limited to a maximum of 100 people and at least 1 metre between seated groups. A quarter of an hour later, he added: “Never mind they sorted her out.”

Arden’s partner, Clarke Gayford, responded to his tweet a few hours later, taking the blame for the brief hiccup to their day.

“I have to take responsibility for this, I didn’t get organised and book anywhere,” he wrote. “Was very nice of them to chase us down st when a spot freed up. A+ service.”
Can Hollywood stars expect similar treatment when The Ivy reopens? :unsure:
 

GarrAargHrumph

I can kill you with my brain
Messages
18,972
Whether or not there is a second wave depends on how we respond to the first wave. If we use the time gifted to us by the SIP to increase healthcare capacity, contact tracing, testing capacity, then we shouldn't have a second wave. Instead, we'll have occasional hot spots that can quickly be put out. It has nothing to do with influenza vs. c0r*nav*vir*s. After all, the common cold is a c-v and we don't even try to find a vaccine for it because it's not worth it.
This is not why we don't have a vaccine against the common cold. They've been trying for one since at least the 1950s. The issue with developing a cold vaccine is that there are close to 200 strains of ***** that cause it. Once they discovered that there were close to 200 serotypes, researchers realized how very difficult it would be to find a vaccine. There are still researchers working toward vaccines and also cures for the cold, but we're not there yet.

It's felt that it's worth it to find a vaccine for the cold because of the number of people who get a cold in a year/then again the next year, that impact on productivity, and also, of course, the number of deaths. A cold vaccine would probably bring the researchers who find it major acclaim, and the companies which market it significant $ - so it's very worth it.


It’s possible herd immunity will develop.
Eventually. Maybe. Johns Hopkins researchers, for example, believe that herd immunity wouldn't take place until late 2021, and that millions of people would die before then. Researchers also aren't sure if herd immunity is possible, because although they're seeing that people who've had ******** do develop antibodies, they're not sure if the antibodies mean you are immune. And if you are immune, they're not sure how long that immunity lasts. They're concerned it may only last a few months.

Assuming that getting ******** makes you immune to it, then in order for us to gain herd immunity, based on the transmission rate so far with ********, we'd need approximately 50 - 70% or more (Johns Hopkins) of the world's population to be infected with ********. Based on current death rates, that would mean that the US would have approx. 500,000 to three million deaths by that point (U Chicago, Johns Hopkins), with approx. 40-50 million dead worldwide (U Chicago). As one researcher gave as an example, that would pretty much mean that every family in the US would have one person die from it.

And once we have herd immunity, people would continue to die. It's just that fewer would die as of that point. So in the end, it would be more than that number ill, more than that number dead.

The other issue that concerns me is that it looks like many of the people who get *********-19 don't escape unscathed, even if they were healthy and fit before they got the *****. We're seeing strokes in young people, damage caused by blood clots; long term breathing issues that doctors are not sure when might resolve (if at all), damage to people's hearts due to the *****, kidney damage due to the ***** that requires dialysis, etc.

One of my fellow faculty members runs several long term care facilities, and he says he's added 50% more beds and still can't accept all of the people (young and old) who have had ********, and now need long term care as they recover. The long term care facilities in the city are full - the people he's getting are being shipped 2 hours north, to his facilities. I haven't seen this reported in the news.
 

Debbie S

Well-Known Member
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12,129
Lobby chicking as we know it is doomed! :drama:
Lobbychicking wasn't that exciting in Greensboro. ;) Maybe b/c the lobby was big, 2 hotel towers and multiple entry doors. It was very quiet. I think I saw more skaters in the hotel in SLC.
 

Prancer

Needs More Sleep
Staff member
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49,945
The results of a Spanish study on *********-19 immunity have a scary takeaway

Preliminary results from a well-designed survey of antibody presence among Spaniards suggest that even as the Spanish outbreak exploded and then was brought under control, only 5 percent of the country’s population has been infected with the ******** so far. This means that the vast majority of the Spanish population remains susceptible to infection if the lifting of restrictions there leads to a new spike in cases.

In The Midwest, Reopening Looks Different State By State, Even City By City
 

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