What does re-opening look like?

[MacMadame]

And if I see that damn "Plandemic" video referenced again, I'm going to scream.

My nephew posted that. But no one else I'm following. However, at least 10 of them posted rebuttals. Maybe more.

So now if I have to see one more rebuttal, I will scream! (Because seeing the rebuttals reminds me that the video exists.)

You do what you know is best and let the others go ahead and f#ck themselves. You know you're not a coward and you don't have to prove anything to anybody. Let one of the dogs bite the jerks. As long as they don't get sick from biting them. The dogs. Not the jerks.

Dogs can get it. So can cats. Better send in the alligators instead.

 

[MacMadame]

For those who are considering traveling when things open back up again, be careful about what your travel insurance covers:

Over-60s could face no holidays abroad for a year after travel insurance changes

Industry analyst Brian Brown says that "until the WHO declares the ********* over you won’t be covered for cancellation if *********-19 causes your holiday plans to change"

www.dailystar.co.uk

 

[once_upon]

It's my understanding from our travel agent that C-19 wasnt covered in our travel insurance. She told me this back in the first of March.

 

[taz'smum]

France's lockdown was partially lifted yesterday.
These were my observations about going shopping in the high street yesterday.

Don't build your hopes up too much about shopping after lockdown.
So far, here in Lyon, not many shops are open and there are long queues at most that are open.
The security guards controlling the queues squirt sanitizer on your hands as you enter, which gets a bit much after the 3rd shop.
The clothes shops are for the moment stocked as they closed, with clothes that are now out of season.
It's going to be some time before we are even back to the 'new' normal.

 

[cholla]

Dogs can get it. So can cats. Better send in the alligators instead.

Now I want pet alligators. I'll do alligators sledding. The result of global warming. Call me Medusa

In my area (130 km East of Taz'smum) people went out of lockdown 2 or 3 days before it was actually partially lifted. I was surprised (and not happily) when I saw so many people strolling around when I went grocery shopping last Thursday. Then, on Saturday, my neighbors had an outdoor party with plenty of friends, plenty of booze and plenty of noise. After 10 weeks of calm and silence, it was brutal. I'm very surprise no one in the neighborhood called the cops on them. The party lasted all day, not in the evening fortunately. I don't understand why a BBQ couldn't wait one more week, but that's just me. More worrisome are what I saw happening in Paris on TV yesterday. Tons of people packed up like sardines in buses and the subway. At least they have a good reason : going to work. But that's clearly not the reason why people were packed like sardines too, taking the sun on the banks of Canal St Martin. Not wearing masks, of course. Parisians will probably face a huge new wave of the crud in a few weeks. Even if now ICU beds are being freed (and people should remember that a lot a actually freed because infected patients died) doctors and nurses are beyond exhausted, many of them are sick, leaving the ICUs understaffed, there is a new shortage of drugs and protection equipments. They will not be able to face a second wave any time soon. Everywhere you can read that "Crud-19 isn't gone, lockdown being lifted only means there are now beds for you in the ICUs". But no one gives a shit. French don't like being told what to do. It's a violation of their freedom rights . In Nice, where the mayor had rendered wearing mask in public compulsory, people complained to the League for Human Rights (!!!). As it wasn't stupid enough, the mayor was forced to lift his decree by decision of the court. In winter, Nice is the place of choice for lots of French snowbirds, it is also inhabited by tons of (wealthy) retirees, i.e. the average population is not young. And the mayor knows what the crud is as he got it in March. But asking people to wear a mask is a breach of liberty in the land of Human Rights. Land of Human Rights, my a$$. Individual liberty stops at the border of community health. Or so it should. But we live in the era of total egocentricity. Me first. My rights, my freedom, and I'll trample on everyone to have it "respected". Yuck. If I'm from this planet, really where do the others come from ? At least I'm happy to see here on FSU that there are many "aliens", and all from different countries. We are not yet an extinct species. For now.

 

[Louis]

For those who are considering traveling when things open back up again, be careful about what your travel insurance covers:

Over-60s could face no holidays abroad for a year after travel insurance changes

Industry analyst Brian Brown says that "until the WHO declares the ********* over you won’t be covered for cancellation if *********-19 causes your holiday plans to change"

www.dailystar.co.uk

As far as I know, no travel insurance will cover anything as long as the UK Foreign Office recommends against international travel. I imagine the same is true for US citizens/residents while the State Department's guidance is Level 4. Certain European countries, e.g., Greece, are saying holiday-goers will be welcome as early as July. There's no guarantee that these restrictions will be lifted by then. If they're not.... caveat emptor. (Though I imagine airlines will be legally required to issue some kind of refund or credit, even if the flight goes ahead, if the official government guidance remains not to travel.)

 

[Louis]

Switzerland, which had already opened DIY stores, garden centers, hair salons , and hospitals, is now also opening sit-down restaurants, pubs, most schools, museums, libraries, and retail stores. It's also encouraging over-65s to go out and resume normal activity.

https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2020/05/switzerland-relaxing-its-********-lockdown-measures/

https://www.thelocal.ch/20200511/people-over-65-can-resume-their-normal-activities-swiss-health-authorities-say

Switzerland is often a good barometer for balancing freedom v. risk. (It's the European country with the most cars per capita, the most guns, a mostly private healthcare system (with some public options), and an "anti-establishment" streak.)

 

[Louis]

UK quarantine rules (which make no sense as usual)

Coronavirus: French arrivals exempt from UK quarantine plans

The UK government says the new measures will not apply to those travelling from France.

www.bbc.co.uk

• travellers will have to quarantine for 14 days, beginning sometime in late May or early June (why then and not now?)
• initially, this was reported as travellers arriving by air, but it's been clarified to now include travellers by train and ferry as well
• except all arrivals from France (as well as the Republic of Ireland, Channel Islands, and Isle of Man) will be exempt

Sooooooo..... the Eurostar from Brussels or Amsterdam stops in Lille. The passengers from Lille don't have to quarantine, but the passengers from Brussels or Amsterdam do?!?! Even though they were all on the same train? And anyone in the Schengen Area who can get to France is I guess also exempt as long as their ticket to the UK originates in France? And how is quarantine is going to be enforced given that travellers clear UK immigration in Belgium and the Netherlands before boarding the Eurostar? Are quarantine enforcers going to be dispatched to St Pancras, Ebbsfleet, and Ashford to check the origin of people's tickets?

Oh well, if there's a silver lining, maybe this means I can go to Jersey or Guernsey for a summer holiday.... No quarantine necessary, and I imagine one can isolate quite well on Sark. Can even pop over to St Malo or Brittany if France reciprocates.

 

[Ania]

I missed this thread and originally posted it in the News & Experiences thread, but it's clearly a better fit for this thread.

This is long but informative: What Happens Next?
Fascinating simulations you can play with, epidemiology 101, SEIR model, R & R0, multiple scenarios for "how we beat *********-19 in a way that also protects our mental & financial health", contact tracing apps that protect privacy, why reducing R saves lives (not merely spreads out fatalities across more months), circuit breaker lock-downs, and much more. A truly fascinating set of simulations and explanations.

 

[MacMadame]

Here are the guidelines per industry for the State of CA if people are interested:

Industry guidance to reduce risk

New Regional Stay Home Order *********-19 continues to surge at alarming rates in California. The Regional Stay Home Order, announced December 3, 2020, will prohibit gatherings of any size, close operations except for critical infrastructure and retail, and require 100% masking and physical...

tinyurl.com

 

[missing]

I am intrigued by what the long term effects of all this are going to be but my short term speculation is should a red state that has chosen to open early develop serious hot spots, its governor will downplay or ignore them and not make Korea-like (close the bars and the clubs) kinds of adjustments.

 

[Aceon6]

If you’ve been following, the Massachusetts governor is going through the daily torture of defending his decision not to reopen anything until next Monday at the earliest. The amount of press pressure is ridiculous. I’m really admiring that he and his team haven’t cracked and No one’s leaked the Phase 1 plan.

Which reminds me... I need to cancel my dental appointment.

 

[Louis]

The EU has promised a summer tourist season:

EU promises a summer tourist season

The European Union has proposed that member states lift travel restrictions for the summer holiday season in order to get the continent’s tourism industry back on its feet. “Our message is we will have a summer tourist season”, the EU’s Economic Affairs Commissioner Paolo Gentiloni said on...

thepointsguy.co.uk

"Our message is we will have a summer tourist season”, the EU’s Economic Affairs Commissioner Paolo Gentiloni said on Wednesday, “even if it’s with security measures and limitations”.

We all need a break, especially after this confinement”, said Thierry Breton, the EU’s internal market commissioner. “We want to enjoy summer holidays, we would like to see our families and friends even if they live in another region, in another country.

“But we want to be able to so while staying healthy and safe because we know the ***** will stay for us for some time.”

There are also talks of “travel bubbles” or “green corridors” that would allow countries with a declining or low infection rate to open up to select countries with similar rates. Those policies would be in place until borders are fully reopened.

I love the optimism; let's hope it's warranted.

Guessing my options will remain the Channel Islands, Isle of Man, or possibly Ireland. Despite all my travel, I've only been to Ireland once and never to Northern Ireland.

 

[rfisher]

Open the beaches! That shark is long gone. Ignore those people pointing at the fins in the water. What do they know anyway.

 

[Louis]

Open the beaches! That shark is long gone. Ignore those people pointing at the fins in the water. What do they know anyway.

Seems like beaches are one of the safer places to be? I'm equally just as happy to go hiking somewhere. You can correct me if I'm wrong, but outdoor vacations during the summer season -- in full guidance with EU and member state rules -- are probably the lowest risk?

If it's possible and legal to travel this summer, even if it's locally, I'm going to do it. People think I'm losing it now, but if there's a second wave of this in the fall that traps us at home again, I worry I may really lose my mind.

I've now slept in my own bed for 60 days. I cannot remember the last time that happened. Certainly not since I've moved to London (past five years). It may be a decade ago or more.

 

[MacMadame]

A nice story about how a blind runner and his guide are dealing with C-19 impacting their training for the 2020ne Paralympics:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/sports/2020/05/12/david-brown-social-distancing/

Seems like beaches are one of the safer places to be?

Beaches yes. But don't in the waters outside Santa Cruz. We really do have a literal shark problem this year.

If it's possible and legal to travel this summer, even if it's locally, I'm going to do it. People think I'm losing it now, but if there's a second wave of this in the fall that traps us at home again, I worry I may really lose my mind.

I suggest for everyone to get out as much as they can if there is a period where restrictions are lifted in case there is a second wave. Looking at the models, it seems like a 2nd wave isn't inevitable for certain types of responses but is inevitable for others.

As for you, given that UK seems to be one of the places where a 2nd wave is inevitable, are you going to plan now for how to make it work the next time? I think the smartest thing would be to find a living arrangement with roommates and that would take some research and planning to find compatible people. Or maybe a room somewhere that has more hiking and nature available?

The best place for me would be some sort of all-inclusive resort where I could swim and run and bike but be in a safe bubble with a small group of people all practicing social distancing. I wonder if such a place exists or if they all sent everyone home and then shut down.

 

[once_upon]

A second wave is inevitable.

 

[rfisher]

Seems like beaches are one of the safer places to be? I'm equally just as happy to go hiking somewhere. You can correct me if I'm wrong, but outdoor vacations during the summer season -- in full guidance with EU and member state rules -- are probably the lowest risk?

If it's possible and legal to travel this summer, even if it's locally, I'm going to do it. People think I'm losing it now, but if there's a second wave of this in the fall that traps us at home again, I worry I may really lose my mind.

I've now slept in my own bed for 60 days. I cannot remember the last time that happened. Certainly not since I've moved to London (past five years). It may be a decade ago or more.

Have you never watched Jaws or any Jurassic Park movie?

 

[Louis]

As for you, given that UK seems to be one of the places where a 2nd wave is inevitable, are you going to plan now for how to make it work the next time? I think the smartest thing would be to find a living arrangement with roommates and that would take some research and planning to find compatible people. Or maybe a room somewhere that has more hiking and nature available?

I realize I have to make a plan, but I don't like any of the ideas . I like having my space when I want it, and being around others when I want to. Too much of either drives me crazy.

I can do my job from anywhere. I've considered various (absurd) options, like:

• moving back with my dad (at age 40!) just for the company
• asking my ex to get back together, just for the quarantine, to immediately end thereafter
• buying a "Golden Girls" house (sight unseen since showings are not allowed) and trying to find a Blanche and Rose (clearly I'm Dorothy)

The logical part of me realizes the above are insane.

I can spend time out of the UK before November 2020, but after November 2020 I'm limited to 90 days out of the country until December 2021. Depending on how bad a second wave is, 90 days presents too much of a risk of being stuck outside the country longer than I'm allowed. So I have to stay in the UK if I want to stay here, long-term. Maybe the best thing to do is to rent a free standing home, with 3-4 bedrooms, making it my "primary" residence, and invite a few compatible friends to quarantine there.

The best place for me would be some sort of all-inclusive resort where I could swim and run and bike but be in a safe bubble with a small group of people all practicing social distancing. I wonder if such a place exists or if they all sent everyone home and then shut down.

You could ask Aaron Schock: https://www.pinknews.co.uk/2020/04/15/aaron-schock-mexico-quarantine-photos/

 

[Miezekatze]

We're thinking of doing a hiking vacation in September, that is, we've booked a holiday appartment already, of course it's cancellable till nearly the date of the trip It's Berchtesgaden which would be Bavaria, but we could take a day trip to Salzburg, if the borders to Austria are open. They're supposed to open fully in mid-June. Of course the situation could get worse again.

I don't think a local hiking or beach trip in England or maybe Ireland is a crazy idea for Louis from a European point of view.

I don't really think all those "flying to beaches in other parts of Europe" is going to happen much, mainly cause it's so risky and unattractive with all the limitations that not many people would actually dare or bother to do it. I mean even Louis sounds sceptical, so I think there's not that many people and the business would still be disappointing for the travel agencies. I'd be most worried about not being let on the plane due to a fever or normal cold, that you get quarantined in a hotel in a foreign country, that you can#t get back easily, that you can't leave for the vacation because there's a quarantine situation at home or you're suddenly living in a hotspot again, I have seen no info at all on what refunding and insurance policies would be in all those cases, so I can't imagine booking a flight or a hotel or something from a travel agency. And then when you get to your destination there's still going to be all those rules in the hotels, that you already have at home.

With a holiday appartment that can be reached by car, the only risk is that something goes wrong in the small timeframe where the cancellation of the appartment is not free anymore.

I think hiking is more attractive than beaches, because hiking is sort of destined for social distancing. Even in crowded places in Germany or Austria you usually don't get nearer than 1,5 meters to people.

Some hotels in Germany are opening this month already, I think the rest in June, holiday appartments can already be rented in some states.

 

[MacMadame]

A second wave is inevitable.

I disagree. I think many countries are heading towards either series of easing up and tightening up (So little waves instead of one big one) or mastering testing and contact tracing and they may have a few hot spot outbreaks over time but they quickly shut them down before they become a wave.

I think some states in the US may be able to do that successfully. I know they are trying. The main thing they don't control is people traveling into the state from border states with looser rules.

• asking my ex to get back together, just for the quarantine, to immediately end thereafter

I actually thought of suggesting that but decided it was too crazy. But if you didn't have visa issues, moving in with your dad doesn't seem crazy.

Maybe the best thing to do is to rent a free standing home, with 3-4 bedrooms, making it my "primary" residence, and invite a few compatible friends to quarantine there.

Do any of your compatible friends already have a larger home?

You could ask Aaron Schock: https://www.pinknews.co.uk/2020/04/15/aaron-schock-mexico-quarantine-photos/

That's exactly what I was thinking of.


There is a study of movement based on cellphone data that was reported on during the news. Before C-19, the Bay area had about 19% of people staying home any particular day. Then at the height of the shelter in place, it went up to 45% and now it's about 38% (as SIP eases). Michigan, OTOH, is full of people moving around! (It seems like as many people were moving around as before the lockdown!)

 

[Hedwig]

Since Monday the restaurants are open again in my county (in the North of Germany). So far the restaurants are empty. I feel for the owners who are now paying their staff to be there without any costumers but at the same time I am glad that most people take this business seriously.
Looking at protests and social media there was a lot of stupid stuff in the media in the last couple of weeks and I feared that we will lose our excellent track record so far and that then everything has to shut down again.
The schools are still not open everywhere. I am still waiting for news when my first grader can go again - at the moment it looks like the middle of June. This is very frustrating since kids in other counties just a few kilometres from us are already going again but it is as it is.
I am only afraid that the case numbers will go up again before he is allowed to go and then school will be closed before he was ever allowed back in.
Then summer holidays and second wave in autumn. Huraaaahhh. And this is not sustainable for little kids. It is hard enough for adults but kids need other kids around them...

 

[cholla]

What re-opening looks like in France

 

[clairecloutier]

And this is not sustainable for little kids. It is hard enough for adults but kids need other kids around them...

Agree with this ... I don’t know how well my kids will cope if school doesn’t start again in September. I’m starting to see a fair amount of moodiness with one of them. Just seems like she is more irritable and sensitive than usual, and less happy, and she has broken out in tears several times over relatively small things, which isn’t typical for her. I think she really misses having friends around and having her own world separate from us. She is almost 11, so maybe also starting into preteen-type stuff.

 

[million$momma]

Agree with this ... I don’t know how well my kids will cope if school doesn’t start again in September. I’m starting to see a fair amount of moodiness with one of them. Just seems like she is more irritable and sensitive than usual, and less happy, and she has broken out in tears several times over relatively small things, which isn’t typical for her. I think she really misses having friends around and having her own world separate from us. She is almost 11, so maybe also starting into preteen-type stuff.

Encourage her to connect with friends online. My kids are connecting with friends via video chats, texting, calling, playing video games together...

 

[Lanie]

Have we ever had a second wave of anything, post-WWII? I don't believe so. BB a CV, not influenza (I guess it is when you say you can't compare the two unless you talk about a deadly Spanish flu 2nd wave is coming!!!), but it is beneficial for media and politicians to terrify us of a dreaded second wave that'll kill the rest of us. It's not safe! We have to stay inside forever! No school! No work! Who cares about the economy, you monster, or your child's education!

It's not about keeping us safe, or healthy, or curbing the spread of BB--it's about power, and money.

Our county is slowly reopening, but we'll see how it goes. I got an email about stay-cation at the hotel we stayed at after our wedding. We may go next weekend for our anniversary. I am so glad we are not in LA County. Wish I could go on my planned trip in October to the UK and Russia but that's been cancelled, next year I guess. We hope to make it to Disney World in August but depending on social distancing and mask rules there we will postpone til the autumn. Right now we'd be at Disneyland celebrating Mini's birthday

 

[snoopy]

It's not possible for the R value to be below 0.

 

[Lanie]

It's not possible for the R value to be below 0.

I meant below 1 which is why I edited my post Rt.live is a pretty handy resource.

 

[Garden Kitty]

My local grocery store chain has started taking reservations for shopping times on Open Table. I guess it's like a Disney fast pass that allows you to skip to the front of the line at your allotted time. The store closest to me doesn't have the long lines that it did a few weeks ago, and "walk ins" are still allowed. But I think some stores in the chain have longer lines, and this could save you time if you plan ahead (and it may help spread out the customers).

 

[MsZem]

Today I went to the mall.

It wasn't my first time there since all this started - the mall supermarket was open throughout, and was the best place for grocery shopping as it wasn't remotely crowded - but it was my first time there since the malls were allowed to reopen. All the shops are open; restaurants and the movie theater are closed.

The precautions seem very reasonable to me: temperature check at the main entrances, each store has a sign stating how big it is & how many customers can be inside at the same time, masks are required, and people are expected to keep their distance from one another. Almost everyone I saw seemed to be complying, and people looked happy to be there.

The US is not in the same situation as Israel; our government acted quickly, people were largely cooperative, and it's easy to keep people out of the country when you only have one major airport and almost no land crossings. In addition, our population skews young and we have a cash-starved but effective public health system. So we've done pretty well, and are down to low double digits of new cases daily, and an ever decreasing number of serious cases.

So Israel in a similar situation to the many countries who are now figuring out how to best allow for a normal-ish life. Hopefully we're on the right track.

Anyway, it was nice seeing people enjoying a perfectly normal activity. And I got truffle butter at the cheese shop