What does re-opening look like?

manhn

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Even though I'm a local coffeeshop kinda guy, I am all for Starbucks opening up for walk-ins (Take out, of course). That means fewer traffic jams caused by drivers waiting in a lineup for the drive-thru.
 

flyingsit

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We have a gradual reopening starting in Denver this weekend; we have a mask ordinance starting today which requires that people wear masks when inside any business, health care facility, or public transportation, and when in line for any of those.

Our hospitalization numbers are dropping and new cases are very low even with increased testing and that’s why they think it is safe for limited openings. No restaurants, bars, movie theaters, or gyms yet.

There is capacity now for contact tracing of every confirmed case and sufficient PPE for healthcare workers.
 

Debbie S

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MD gov had a news conf today. He noted that hospitalizations and ICU numbers are decreasing and that is one of the requirements for reopening. However, our cases are still going up, which he didn't mention - I suspect he's feeling pressure from the reopening protestors, and it's true that there are rural areas in the state that have relatively few cases. He reported on the amount of PPE that state has obtained, we have 8000 additional hospital beds and are hiring contact tracers. He said if the hospitalization numbers keep going down, we could start reopening ("low-risk" non-essential businesses could open with social distancing measures) next week. For now, he's allowing "safe outdoor activities" - golf, tennis, boating, fishing - and elective medical procedures can be scheduled.

The doctor who leads the C response team spoke and encouraged people to continue using telehealth for doc appts but they shouldn't worry about coming to the hospital if they need to. The YKW is highly contagious and people should still stay home except for essential trips and social distance if they are out.

School superintendent said schools will be closed for the rest of the year, which was not a surprise. She said they are discussing options for next fall - mentioned possibly dividing students into morning and afternoon shifts or 1 week on/1 week off rotations (between in-person and online classes) in order to achieve social distancing. She said individual districts can make their own decisions about graduation ceremonies but they need to comply with the executive orders.
 

Prancer

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One of the things I have been wondering about is what will happen when infection rates go up after each phase of opening. This seems inevitable to me (but perhaps not) and I've been wondering what the response to that will be.

This is addressed a little bit in this interview with Johan Giesecke, "one of the world’s most senior epidemiologists, advisor to the Swedish Government (he hired Anders Tegnell who is currently directing Swedish strategy), the first Chief Scientist of the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control, and an advisor to the director general of the WHO" and also the world's grumpiest old grandpa :lol:. He says that:

a) you cannot just open up; it must always be done in stages
b) there will be a two steps forward, one step back (not his words, but the gist) approach to opening as we probe how far we can go at each point

His entire interview is, to me, a real class in how differently an epidemiologist looks at this than a lay person.
 

MacMadame

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His entire interview is, to me, a real class in how differently an epidemiologist looks at this than a lay person.
It's over half an hour! And the took up 5 minutes of that introducing him. I just can't focus that long. 🤷‍♀️
 

Aceon6

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I'm wondering how some businesses are going to survive with social distancing in place. For example, if restaurants have to space out their seating, they'll be operating at less than capacity, and thus earning less revenues.

Some businesses aren't going to make it.
One of our local restaurants is converting some lesser used spaces and part of the waiting area so they can spread people out. You’ll have to make a reservation and wait in your car until they call you. The owner thinks he can get back to 80% and bring back all the full timers. He won’t rehire any of the high school or college kids.
 

Prancer

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It's over half an hour! And the took up 5 minutes of that introducing him. I just can't focus that long. 🤷‍♀️
That's why I summarized it. There's a pretty good summary in the initial post, too, and it covers the whole interview.

He doesn't provide any supporting evidence for saying that the re-opening process must be done in stages; he just says it. But that's how he is throughout. He looks like he'd rather be anywhere other than wasting his time with this drivel and he answers a lot of questions with "Yep" and that's it :lol:.

But one of the places where he really comes across as an epidemiologist is in this exchange (from memory, so may not be exact):

Interviewer: How many people will die?
Doctor: There are how many people in the UK? (Calculates in his head). 12,000. 12,000 will die.
I: We just passed 13,000.
D (dismissively): Maybe 18,000

That's half again as many, which to me sounds like a substantive difference. But to him, it was clearly negligible.

And in case anyone was wondering: The government’s tally of fatalities across the UK reached 29,427 yesterday.

He also says that 1-2000 people will die in Sweden. The current death toll there is close to 3000 as of today. I'm sure he considers that negligible, too, but to a layman, it sounds like he really underestimated the disease. And this interview was from just a couple of weeks ago.
 

MacMadame

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There's a pretty good summary in the initial post, too, and it covers the whole interview.
I swear, swear, swear, that I looked for such a thing. All I saw were comments from wankers who want to believe conspiracy theories.

He also says that 1-2000 people will die in Sweden. The current death toll there is close to 3000 as of today. I'm sure he considers that negligible, too, but to a layman, it sounds like he really underestimated the disease. And this interview was from just a couple of weeks ago.
If he's the main guy they are listening to, it now makes sense why Sweden's death rate is higher than its neighbors.
 

Prancer

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I swear, swear, swear, that I looked for such a thing. All I saw were comments from wankers who want to believe conspiracy theories.
It's in the initial post:

  • UK policy on lockdown and other European countries are not evidence-based
  • The correct policy is to protect the old and the frail only
  • This will eventually lead to herd immunity as a “by-product”
  • The initial UK response, before the “180 degree U-turn”, was better
  • The Imperial College paper was “not very good” and he has never seen an unpublished paper have so much policy impact
  • The paper was very much too pessimistic
  • Any such models are a dubious basis for public policy anyway
  • The flattening of the curve is due to the most vulnerable dying first as much as the lockdown
  • The results will eventually be similar for all countries
  • *********-19 is a “mild disease” and similar to the flu, and it was the novelty of the disease that scared people.
  • The actual fatality rate of *********-19 is the region of 0.1%
  • At least 50% of the population of both the UK and Sweden will be shown to have already had the disease when mass antibody testing becomes available

That's a bit of a biased take on it, but it's more or less what he says.

If he's the main guy they are listening to, it now makes sense why Sweden's death rate is higher than its neighbors.
He talked about that, actually, and said that most of the deaths in all three countries were were in nursing homes, which in Sweden are very large and house many patients and so infections there kill a lot of people, whereas in Norway, nursing homes are small and so contagion doesn't take out as many people. He kind of brushed off Denmark for a reason I don't recall.

In his defense, much of what he says is what every other epidemiologist says; the only difference I can really see is that he believes that it is essentially futile to go to great lengths to control the spread of this disease because it's too widespread and he appears to be underestimating how deadly the disease is--as I said, I think epidemiologists think in much broader ranges than we do.
 

MacMadame

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only difference I can really see is that he believes that it is essentially futile to go to great lengths to control the spread of this disease because it's too widespread and he appears to be underestimating how deadly the disease is
But the deadliness is kind of the point, isn't it? Your plans have to be based on what the ***** is actually like. If your advice is based on bad data, it's bad advice.
 

Hedwig

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One of the things I have been wondering about is what will happen when infection rates go up after each phase of opening. This seems inevitable to me (but perhaps not) and I've been wondering what the response to that will be.
In Germany it was decided yesterday under a bunch of new lifting of restrictions that they would automatically go back to point zero once there is an new infection rate of 50 per 100.000 inhabitants in any one area over the period of 7 days
 

hoptoad

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Hedwig, is that back to point zero for the whole country, or just the region(s) that exceed the infection rate?
 

hoptoad

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Thanks. That makes sense - regions may differ considerably. I hope it goes well and you guys set a good example for us.
 

Prancer

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But the deadliness is kind of the point, isn't it? Your plans have to be based on what the ***** is actually like. If your advice is based on bad data, it's bad advice.
I don't think anyone had enough good data to make good plans (from a layman's point of view); on the other end of things, you have the Imperial College model, which is what really drove the lockdowns, in spite of the fact that the epidemiologist who designed the model has something of a track record for producing models that grossly (from a layman's viewpoint) overestimate fatalities.

Everyone has to do the best they can with what they know and adapt as they learn more. It's not like this is any different; it's just that in this case, the learning experience has vast and tragic consequences.
 

MacMadame

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This is an interesting article about whether or not CA has the right criteria for re-opening:


I find this a lot more interesting than the endless arguing about whether or not we should have locked down to start with. :) The article says that the Governor is open to adjusting the criteria on a county by county basis so that's good.

IMO it's better to draw a line in the sand, see how it works out and then move it based on actual results instead of opening up based on feels or political pressure. But I do think the County people are right that the criterium is too strict. It looks like they came up with the numbers based on averages which in a state as big as ours isn't going to work.
 
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MacMadame

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Also, the article talks about what the biology and numbers show in terms of the most likely transmission vectors.


This explains some of the order that different governments are using to decide what to re-order first. In particular, opening up outside activities makes a lot of sense. And retail too even if it is indoors. I am actually in favor of retail stores that are non-essential opening back up for more than curbside service as long as people maintain social distancing inside them and also wear masks. I haven't seen any data.

I had already decided I am not going to go back to the office, attend events where we are indoors for hours and/or can't maintain social distancing, or eat at sit-in restaurants before I saw this article.

Also, I agree with this little girl. Outdoor pools should be open!

 

BlueRidge

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This explains some of the order that different governments are using to decide what to re-order first. In particular, opening up outside activities makes a lot of sense. And retail too even if it is indoors. I am actually in favor of retail stores that are non-essential opening back up for more than curbside service as long as people maintain social distancing inside them and also wear masks. I haven't seen any data.
That blog post is a good look at the risks. I hope that as we move forward governments build more flexibility into the orders for how to proceed. Parks and such, beaches, etc., just don't seem to be that risky, although social distancing is still required. And I agree about retail stores with proper spacing and limiting numbers in the stores at a given time.

Workplaces seem most important because people are in them for sustained periods of time.

I also think that the numbers of cases in a given area should be considered rather than state-wide. But it should also be communicated that people are taking a risk by going out even so, to make sure people stay aware of social distancing and wearing face coverings.

The metric all along has been supposed to be whether there is enough capacity in the health care system to take care of anyone who does get sick. A lot of places seem okay on that right now, so they can loosen restrictions and public health authorities keep a close watch on how this goes.

It shouldn't seem as dire as it does when it seems like we'll never get out until there is a vaccine. The NY Times had a good piece that showed several models of the waves that we will go through. We have to manage the waves.

 
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once_upon

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When we do dine in restaurants I'm probably only going to ones where you can sit outdoors. And recognize that people wont and cant wear masks while eating.

I didnt do retail/mall shopping very much. Only on the grandchildren birthday trips, which also included birthday dinner in a restaurant. I dont think their parents are comfortable with that this year. Occasionally I bought stuff at Target.

Besides restaurants, my other outings were church, bowling alley and grocery store. And our yearly cruise/vacation.
 

Hedwig

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Relaxed conditions in Germany for just under two weeks now. And R has risen vom 0.6 to 1.1 :wuzrobbed

I mean it is not surprising of course but I hoped against hope.
 

Aussie Willy

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Good news here in Australia. Restrictions are now being carefully wound back in a scheduled process. The federal government has developed a plan but it is up to each state to implement it.

We are very lucky in that there are less than 7000 cases and 100 deaths for the whole country. There is an occasional cluster but they are being jumped on and being brought under control very quickly. It is going to depend very much on people doing the right thing. Limitations on numbers gathering and social distancing is going to be around for quite a while.

This has now given the chance for a good testing regime to be developed along with hospitals being able to manage cases if and when they happen.

If anyone is interested, this website has all the figures from Australia.
 
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TAHbKA

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Israel is semi back to normal. The public transportation is hell (20 people rather than 50) are allowed on the bus, the trains are not running, i.e. the 1-2K people who would normally take a train are now waiting for the buses that take right, 20 people each. If the bus is `full' it would not stop on the bus stop. So people end up waiting for hours and hours. Central bus stations look like a 'rona party in a making.
The restaurants are open for pick up, but not for sitting in, most of the sports are allowed (AFAIK the ice rinks are open), the education system is still weird - the unis are online, the highschool and the middle school are studying like once a week, the primary school are back and divided to 20 people a class, the kindergartens are back for 3 days (divided by half a group sun-tue, half a group wed-fri).
 

TAHbKA

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And then, of course there is this, so expect a jump in the numbers in a week and another lockdown at least in Jerusalem till the end of May...
 

once_upon

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In Nebraska, Baseball and softball teams can start practices June 1. Players need their own bats, gloves and helmets. They must bring their own snacks and drinks. Parents can drop off but must return to their cars.

Games can start June 18th. Teams must be separated. Tournament play needs sanitizing between games.

Masks do we need to wear? - hard to play with masks so no. Good idea if you are a spectator. Obviously not wearing masks for dine in restaurants. Good idea to wear masks.

Questioning testing procedures, UMNC unsure that testing quality. Defending his decision to bring in Test Nebraska. Questioning Centers? dont under how difficult it is to pull this off. Guess the testing procedures are being questioned by state legislators.
 

once_upon

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Based upon my high school friend who lives in Louisiana has posted on Facebook the movie theaters and hair salons are opening.
 

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