What does re-opening look like?

[MacMadame]

Since the News and Experiences thread seems to be overwhelmed with arguing about how we should and should not re-open our various economies, I thought I'd start this thread so we can argue about "the future" here. Maybe that will keep the other thread focussed more on the "the present." Or not. This is FSU, after all.

Anyway, here is a good article about the kinds of questions we will be facing as we open up. Maybe we can talk about what we think the answers are for ourself or should be for everyone:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2020/05/03/most-important-test-wont-involve-swabs-or-temperature-checks/

 

[canbelto]

John Oliver has an answer: testing testing testing.

Coronavirus VI: Testing: Last Week Tonight with John Oliver (HBO)

As experts encourage widespread ******** testing, John Oliver discusses exactly how much testing the US has done, the difference between diagnostic and an...

www.youtube.com

 

[MacMadame]

This article is about whether or not restaurants can truly re-open if they have to run at 50% capacity:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2020/05/04/restaurants-some-states-fire-up-again-proprietors-wonder-if-rich-dining-landscape-will-ever-be-same/

And also if dining will change because of the restrictions.

 

[AxelAnnie]

I can't figure a dang thing out....and I have been trying. I live in Sonoma County, CA. I went to the pharmacy today. The sign for elderly (where they bring the meds to you) was gone. However there was a sign that said "in compliance with the Sonoma county ********* order all Sonoma county residents have to wear masks. Um.....who is checking residency....no one. So if you come from a county 20 miles away you don't need a mask?

I am now of a mind that I trust no one on TV except Dr.Birx.

My grandson will turn 7 on Saturday. He lives 25 miles from me in Marin County. Whose rules do I follow when my doggie and I go to say Happy Birthday?

 

[MacMadame]

However there was a sign that said "in compliance with the Sonoma county ********* order all Sonoma county residents have to wear masks. Um.....who is checking residency....no one. So if you come from a county 20 miles away you don't need a mask?

You aren't supposed to be leaving your county. Unless it's to go to work at an essential job.

 

[AxelAnnie]

You aren't supposed to be leaving your county. Unless it's to go to work at an essential job.

Is that true in Northern Cal? If so....makes my weekend easier.

 

[nlloyd]

Could we also discuss how countries/states/provinces are easing up on restrictions or should I start a new thread for this? South Africa has moved to Level 4 in their five-level phasing. This article describes what that entails: https://www.cp24.com/world/people-return-to-streets-as-south-africa-eases-********-lockdown-1.4920265. It is worth noting that their ability to ease up on restrictions so quickly (5 weeks after implementing them) was related to the promptness and comprehensiveness of the initial response. Their education measures will focus on Grade 7s and Grade 12s initially as these students are in transition years.

 

[AxelAnnie]

Riders from Marin and Napa are coming to ride their horses in Sonoma. Who is policing this. Believe me riding your horse in a riding lesson is not essential. The people I pay a fortune to each month make sure my horse is taken care of.

I can't ride in any event.....I am recovering from surgery. But I would love to watch lessons..... With my barn buddies from Napa And Contra Costa. It is just a non-sensical. And I don't have a good solution. I only hope things don't spike again.

 

[nlloyd]

In British Columbia, the Public Health Officer, Dr. Bonnie Henry, noted today that social interactions are currently at 30% of normal and can likely increase to around 60% without overwhelming hospitals. She emphasized the importance of lifting restrictions in a careful, moderate manner and noted that social distancing will remain crucial -- ranking it far more effective than wearing a mask. Plans for lifting some restrictions will be announced on Wednesday by the premiere, John Horgan, but will only go into effect in the middle of the month. The daily number of hospitalizations has decreased steadily since April 13, with only 77 people in the province hospitalized as of today: Henry describes the current situation as "the end of the beginning" rather than "the beginning of the end," referencing the fact that some measures will need to remain in place for a while and that there may be a second wave in the fall.

 

[AxelAnnie]

You aren't supposed to be leaving your county. Unless it's to go to work at an essential job.

All too true. The only problem is people are not checking for residency qualifications. I watched at least 30 people walk into Raley's yesterday. They had masked and no one was asked about residency.

I just hope this not following the rules thing does not come back to bite us in the A$$.
And try as I might, I can't find anything in the CA or North Bay orders that say you can't go from county to county.

The beach communities that are opened, in theory, are open only to the people who live in those communities. UM....that did not work too well in Orange County. There are restrictions that you can go to a park by walking or riding a bike (no cars) which is an effort to keep people from going to a park they have to go to.

And, I just read the OC beaches were open, but the restrooms were closed.............YUK. Totally smart, but OMG the water quality as people relieve themselves while swimming.

 

[MacMadame]

They had masked and no one was asked about residency.

So they could be from your county. And probably are. Who drives to another county to go to Raley's? Unless you are on the county border, of course.

 

[MacMadame]

What do people think about this measure to decide to re-open?

https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2020/05/04/metric-that-could-tell-us-when-its-safe-reemerge/

I think it's too strict and we'll be SIP too long if it has to go back to what it was. OTOH if it does down for 14 days in a row (or some other similar measure), that might work better than other measures. I still prefer to look at hospitalizations and ICU beds as the measure.

 

[AxelAnnie]

In answer to M

You aren't supposed to be leaving your county. Unless it's to go to work at an essential job.

I have not found a don't leave your county order in place in Sonoma County and the other 5 Bay Area Counties. Not saying it doesn't exist.....just that I can't find it.

As to Rayley's, if you work in Sonoma and reside in Napa......you might for sure have your Rx at the Rayley's in Sonoma because it and it's hours are more convenient for you.

I don't have an issue with any of it, really. As long as what is decreed is being respected and enforced.

 

[AxelAnnie]

So they could be from your county. And probably are. Who drives to another county to go to Raley's? Unless you are on the county border, of course.

Yes, they could be, and I would assume most are.

I have not found a don't leave your county order in place in Sonoma County and the other 5 Bay Area Counties. Not saying it doesn't exist.....just that I can't find it.

As to Rayley's, if you work in Sonoma and reside in Napa......you might for sure have your Rx at the Rayley's in Sonoma because it and it's hours are more convenient for you.

The Bay Area is unique.....just like all other areas of the country are unique.

Someone needs to be in charge.........really in charge. So there is one place you can look and get the latest information that is true, accurate and up-to-date.

Steps of soapbox

 

[Michalle]

That's a terrible idea. If a substantial or even some number of the excess deaths are related to the lockdown, then we will be stuck in a Catch-22 situation of waiting for the deaths caused by the lockdown to go down before we can end the lockdown, which won't happen b/c they are being caused by the lockdown in the first place. That's a big if, obviously, but it's a big enough concern for me that I don't think that's a great metric to use.

 

[SHARPIE]

I read a funny today for us Brits



“Surely the best way to decide if we are coming out of lockdown we should hold a referendum! Should be straightforward enough!”

 

[sk8pics]

I read that they are slightly loosening the restrictions in Delaware, so now some nonessential businesses will be allowed to open if they can provide curbside service. So things like department stores, shoe stores, and so on. Jewelry stores can open by appointment only. (I found this funny, but perhaps there are some fences to mend as a result of the quarantine.) Hair salons can open only do to haircuts and only for essential workers. (I'm scheduled on May 15, but I guess we may have to reschedule since I'm actually retired.) And they are allowed no more than 2 customers in the salon at one time and no more than the number of hairdressers, so if it's a one person salon only 1 customer can be in there at at time, with 15 minutes in between for cleaning.

 

[vesperholly]

I read a funny today for us Brits

“Surely the best way to decide if we are coming out of lockdown we should hold a referendum! Should be straightforward enough!”

Re-exit?

 

[canbelto]

Covexit?

 

[vesperholly]

Covexit?

COVOUT

 

[Japanfan]

I'm wondering how some businesses are going to survive with social distancing in place. For example, if restaurants have to space out their seating, they'll be operating at less than capacity, and thus earning less revenues.

Some businesses aren't going to make it.

 

[ballettmaus]

I was waiting outside a store today and one employee was outside smoking. She had pulled her mask to her chin and once she was done with her cigarette, she used her gloved hands to pull the mask back up by the top edges.

So, no matter how or when states open up, I think that in addition to more tests, there needs to be a requirement that employers must provide training on how to use masks properly and safely for their employees.

I'm wondering how some businesses are going to survive with social distancing in place. For example, if restaurants have to space out their seating, they'll be operating at less than capacity, and thus earning less revenues.

Some businesses aren't going to make it.

The WaPo article MacMadame linked to addresses that

 

[MacMadame]

The WaPo article MacMadame linked to addresses that

I think it's a big deal because the business model is so different from retail.

If a bookstore has already bought a bunch of books pre-*********. They are sitting in the store and can sit forever. If the bookstore opens up and they can sell some, even if it's at a lower volume, that's money that they get that they weren't getting when they weren't open. Maybe they can even sell online with delivery / curbside pickup on top of in store sales. Plus, it's rare that a bookstore can't handle all the customers they normally get in a socially-distant way. And once people feel good about going out, their business should be as good as it was and possibly even better if they get online business that used to go to Amazon. All they have to do is make enough to pay the rent until they are back to where they were.

Now, look at a restaurant... People sit there for 45 min-2 hours which increases the risk over passing people in the aisles in a store. Plus they can't have as many people as they used to. If they had a salad bar or a buffet, they can't have that. Maybe there is something else that the restaurant did that it was known for that they can't do either. The atmosphere is entirely different as well.

I see hair salons as being somewhat in between restaurants and retail. Depending on how big the space is, they may not be able to get enough clients through to make as much money as they were before. But if peopel are willing to work in shifts, it could probably be done. You could have half the stylists work an AM shift and half a PM shift and they could pick which 5 days they work to overlap as little as possible. The problem with that is that Saturday is a prime day for that service so who are the lucky stylists who get to work on Saturday?

 

[Miezekatze]

Angela Merkel wants to make a rule that there needs to an upper limit for new infections that would make it necessary to do a regional shutdown again.
Like if any German county or bigger city here has more than 50 new infections per 100000 inhabitants within 7 days, they'd have to regionally reintroduce restrictions like stay at home orders and close restaurants/stores/etc. again temporarily. Apart from that how to lift restrictions is within the responsibility of the states.

Sounds relatively ok for me. Except that it would make planning trips quite risky, because you never know when the place you're going to might be affected or when you couldn't leave your home country, but I guess that will stay a problem anyway for months or longer.

The metric named in the Washington Post article does not sound good to me at all. Because in order for there to be excess mortality due to the ***** the situation IMO would already have to be pretty bad! In Germany we have I think no excess mortality yet (or at least if it exists it's very very mild) and in countries like Taiwan, Israel, Iceland, Finnland or South Koreas there also were very few deaths due to *********-19. That's cause of of course it is better to get the ***** under control BEFORE it starts having a negative effect on death rates. Waiting for excess mortality to even show up in statistics seems a pretty bad idea, especially in US states that haven't been badly affected yet. When you're looking at excess mortality you're looking at a point of time that is very far in the past in terms of when the infections that caused those deaths occured.

Also the metric might be easily skewed by other events, here in Europe the worst cases of excess mortality in the last years were due to extreme heat waves in summer for example, so it would be hard to use the metric if other factors come into play.

 

[once_upon]

It's only been 2 days and among the slowest days of week for restaurants but reports are that people arent flocking to them as yet. Same for restaurants in Iowa which opened last Friday.

 

[ballettmaus]

If a bookstore has already bought a bunch of books pre-*********. They are sitting in the store and can sit forever. If the bookstore opens up and they can sell some, even if it's at a lower volume, that's money that they get that they weren't getting when they weren't open. Maybe they can even sell online with delivery / curbside pickup on top of in store sales. Plus, it's rare that a bookstore can't handle all the customers they normally get in a socially-distant way. And once people feel good about going out, their business should be as good as it was and possibly even better if they get online business that used to go to Amazon. All they have to do is make enough to pay the rent until they are back to where they were.

And nowadays, how many small bookstores are there? Isn't it mostly big chains anyway?

That said, as much as I want to go back and browse through books in person (it's one of the things that I missed the most if not the thing that I miss the most), I'm not entirely comfortable doing so because it's indoors. Too bad bookstores can't open up the walls or roofs

Now, look at a restaurant... People sit there for 45 min-2 hours which increases the risk over passing people in the aisles in a store. Plus they can't have as many people as they used to. If they had a salad bar or a buffet, they can't have that. Maybe there is something else that the restaurant did that it was known for that they can't do either. The atmosphere is entirely different as well.

When I read the article the other day, I immediately thought of a restaurant in Steamboat Springs, Colorado. Before it all began, you could go up to a shelf/bar kind of thing that looked like where they sell fresh meat in a supermarket, you'd pick your steak and then they had this huge grill and a huge board with grilling instructions and you'd grill it yourself. Guess, they won't be able to do that anymore for a while

Same for all those Japanese "cook at your table" restaurants.

I see hair salons as being somewhat in between restaurants and retail. Depending on how big the space is, they may not be able to get enough clients through to make as much money as they were before. But if peopel are willing to work in shifts, it could probably be done.

In Berlin, patrons aren't allowed to wait inside the salon anymore (most have such small waiting areas that social distancing is basically impossible) and everyone must get their hair washed. Also, they're not doing beards and eyebrows for the time being.


As far as schools are concerned, a teacher in Denmark has observed that after two weeks of schools, kids are falling back into old habits. (Denmark opened up kindergartens, preschools and elementary schools only). While they were very good with it in the beginning, they are starting to "violate" some of the rules, mostly the social distancing rule when outside playing. They just forget because, as the teacher said, they've gotten used to each other again. Kids were also required to wash hands each time they come inside and before they go outside, before and after meals and every two hours but they had to let go of the two-hour requirement because the children's skin is too vulnerable.

Also, there has been a very small increase in hospitalizations for the first time since the end of March. The number has risen from 243 to 259.

Source is a German newspaper. https://tinyurl.com/y9jvsymz

 

[MacMadame]

he metric named in the Washington Post article does not sound good to me at all. Because in order for there to be excess mortality due to the ***** the situation IMO would already have to be pretty bad! In Germany we have I think no excess mortality yet (or at least if it exists it's very very mild)

We have quite a bit here. I think it's because (a) we aren't testing very much so lots of C-19 deaths are not being count as C-19 and (b) our healthcare system sucks.

And nowadays, how many small bookstores are there? Isn't it mostly big chains anyway?

They are all over the Bay Area. I'd say any sizable town has at least one.

 

[BlueRidge]

They are all over the Bay Area. I'd say any sizable town has at least one.

Do any chains exist anymore?

We only have small independent bookstores. I can only think of two in D.C., one has outlets in partnership with a local restaurant that has several locations. Oh wait there is another one, I read about them having browsing hours by appointment in fact. Also there are a couple of used bookstores.

 

[BlueRidge]

I'm not sure when to post in this thread and when in the other.

Starbucks is reopening 85% of its stores by the end of the week, "with an emphasis on mobile ordering, contactless pickup and cashless payments, as more cities and states ease lockdown restrictions due to the ******** *********."

The company’s mobile app — which is already used by roughly 20 million customers — will include new options for voice ordering and curbside pickup, chief executive Kevin Johnson wrote in a letter to customers Monday.

Starbucks shares spiked 3.2 percent Tuesday after the company’s plan was made public. ...

The new protocols, he said, will be a natural fit for the Seattle-based coffee giant, which says that more than 80 percent of its U.S. orders were placed “on the go” via drive-throughs or the mobile app, even before the *********. Starbucks also is applying the lessons it has learned in China, where more than 98 percent of its stores have reopened, and ramping up investments in artificial intelligence that will help the company make “data-driven decisions” about store re-openings and other changes.

This seems like a positive for the economy, though it doesn't help locally-owned businesses I suppose. But it puts people back to work and it seems likely that this model with give people enough confidence to patronize the stores.

https://tinyurl.com/y9jez43t

 

[MacMadame]

This seems like a positive for the economy, though it doesn't help locally-owned businesses I suppose. But it puts people back to work and it seems likely that this model with give people enough confidence to patronize the stores.

A lot of these chains have/are franchises which means your McDonald's is owned locally. But not Starbucks IIRC.

But anyway, I think most people have this vague notion that people were somehow better in the past

I didn't really think that. I grew up with racists and bigots, after all. But I did think people were capable of both (a) organizing around a cause and (b) being efficient about it. There are definitely people doing good now. But in a piecemeal and chaotic way. This is because of a lack of leadership from the top IMO. But even if we had that, we'd still have chaos and be inefficient. Just not wildly inefficient.

But seeing some of the things people said during rationing and what they supported politically after the war was over does make me afraid of what will happen next once C-19 is more contained.