USFS' Athlete Selection Procedures for 2022 Olympics

Karen-W

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What is the junior standard? I can't find anything in the official selection document that mentions that.
The document is vague on exactly HOW junior scores will be factored to become comparable to senior scores but it does seem pretty reasonable to expect that two scores solidly in the 155 range on the JGP are going to score at least 160-165 at the senior level, which would comfortably put S/S into Group 4. Of course, the group they wind up in is rather pointless since they don't have US passports and won't be named to the Olympic team even if they did manage to finish in the top 5 at Nats.
 

Coco

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I think that they will pretty much go by the results of nationals unless a really big name struggles and then they will use this criteria.

I still think Jason needs to beat Ilya at Nationals.
 

Karen-W

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I think that they will pretty much go by the results of nationals unless a really big name struggles and then they will use this criteria.

I still think Jason needs to beat Ilya at Nationals.

Jason and Ilya are both inconsistent. Perhaps in the future, Ilya's ceiling will prove to be much higher than Jason's. The crucial difference currently is that Jason's floor is much highe
I agree with both of these statements. Right now, Jason is in the driver's seat and his floor is, as @toddlj notes, much higher than Ilia's. However, if Ilia hits like he did at his 2nd JGP and Jason falters, that is where their scores are going to overlap and it is not outside the realm of possibility that Ilia would beat Jason. In that regard, I share @Coco's view that Jason needs to beat Ilia at Nationals to earn a 2nd Olympic trip. If Ilia finishes top 3 at Nationals, that places him in Group 3 along with Jason and, in that scenario, my suspicion is the USFS will follow Nats results and name Ilia to the team.
 

Marco

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Thanks @Karen-W for compiling. It appears the situation is clearer.

For the men, Nathan and Vincent are basic locks and are most likely the 2 to skate at the Team Event, and the 3rd spot is Jason's to lose [rough average total score: 260], with possible challengers being Jimmy and Ilia. Jimmy has proven from various events this season that he doesn't have the consistency and sufficient technical edge to outscore Jason but he has one more event (Golden Spin) as his last shot. Same for Ilia - who has the fire power but not the consistency yet to challenge Jason. He also has one more event (JGPF) as his last shot. If neither Jimmy nor Ilia scored significant scores at their next event (at least break 260), then I expect Jason can place 5th at Nationals and still make it to the Olympics.

For the ladies, despite coaching change, I say Alysa is a basic lock. Karen is next [rough average score: 192] and has broken 200 twice and to me is quite secure. The only other factor that makes me feel she isn't a basic lock is that her scores greatly fluctuate (range of 35). Politically though, she was favoured over Amber last year to go to Worlds and she got the job done as the top placing US woman to secure the potential 3rd spot when Bradie wasn't consistent. The last spot is between Amber, Bradie, Mariah and Lindsay.

Amber [rough average score: 186] is the only other skater to have broken 200 which she barely did at SkAm, but like Karen her scores are quite up and down (range of 25). Mariah's rough average score is 185 but she still has events coming up. Lindsay's rough average score of 185 is also right up there with Mariah and Amber but her last event is JGPF which carries a lower BV with one less element but she should still be able to showcase consistency there and prove that she deserves the Polina Edmunds treatment. These three have such a similar average score that USFS will probably want them to fight it out at Nationals, unless Mariah and Lindsay pull out big numbers at their next events.

The question mark is of course Bradie who hasn't skated all season so statistically her rough average score is 197 which is what she received from Worlds, but obviously this has nothing to do with how she is skating at all this season. Judging from all sorts of voices and political considerations, she can probably make a good case for the team if she managed 3rd at Nationals with 185+. If she skips even Nationals, then all bets are off and we will see how the petition goes and how Mariah / Amber / Lindsay managed to score at Nationals. My guess is if any of these 3 scored over 200 at Nationals, Bradie probably won't have a successful petition.

Remember though, ice is slippery, and politiks is even more slippery :p:p:p
 

Karen-W

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Thanks @Karen-W for compiling. It appears the situation is clearer.

For the men, Nathan and Vincent are basic locks and are most likely the 2 to skate at the Team Event, and the 3rd spot is Jason's to lose [rough average total score: 260], with possible challengers being Jimmy and Ilia. Jimmy has proven from various events this season that he doesn't have the consistency and sufficient technical edge to outscore Jason but he has one more event (Golden Spin) as his last shot. Same for Ilia - who has the fire power but not the consistency yet to challenge Jason. He also has one more event (JGPF) as his last shot. If neither Jimmy nor Ilia scored significant scores at their next event (at least break 260), then I expect Jason can place 5th at Nationals and still make it to the Olympics.
I don't agree that the spot is Jason's as long as he places no worse than 5th. The Group 3 selection criteria is Top 3 at Nationals OR 2021 International Scores. If Jimmy or Ilia place in the Top 3 at Nationals, they automatically vault into Group 3 and I can't see the USFS going against the results of Nationals for the 3rd Men's spot. I think this is especially true if Ilia replicates or betters his JGP Austria result at the JGPF and places 3rd since he is going to be seen as the future, up-and-coming star. Now, if it's someone who hasn't met either the Group 3 or Group 4 International Scores criteria who finishes in the Top 3, I do expect that Jason will get selected ahead of that man.

For the ladies, despite coaching change, I say Alysa is a basic lock. Karen is next [rough average score: 192] and has broken 200 twice and to me is quite secure. The only other factor that makes me feel she isn't a basic lock is that her scores greatly fluctuate (range of 35). Politically though, she was favoured over Amber last year to go to Worlds and she got the job done as the top placing US woman to secure the potential 3rd spot when Bradie wasn't consistent. The last spot is between Amber, Bradie, Mariah and Lindsay.

Amber [rough average score: 186] is the only other skater to have broken 200 which she barely did at SkAm, but like Karen her scores are quite up and down (range of 25). Mariah's rough average score is 185 but she still has events coming up. Lindsay's rough average score of 185 is also right up there with Mariah and Amber but her last event is JGPF which carries a lower BV with one less element but she should still be able to showcase consistency there and prove that she deserves the Polina Edmunds treatment. These three have such a similar average score that USFS will probably want them to fight it out at Nationals, unless Mariah and Lindsay pull out big numbers at their next events.

The question mark is of course Bradie who hasn't skated all season so statistically her rough average score is 197 which is what she received from Worlds, but obviously this has nothing to do with how she is skating at all this season. Judging from all sorts of voices and political considerations, she can probably make a good case for the team if she managed 3rd at Nationals with 185+. If she skips even Nationals, then all bets are off and we will see how the petition goes and how Mariah / Amber / Lindsay managed to score at Nationals. My guess is if any of these 3 scored over 200 at Nationals, Bradie probably won't have a successful petition.
I agree that Alysa and Karen are, at this point, likely locks. Mariah could still, possibly, move herself into Group 3 with stronger skates at Rostelecom and Golden Spin. Lindsay with another result at the JGPF that either replicates or improves her JGP Ljubljana result, will move into Group 3. If either one or both of them move themselves into Group 3 over the next 3 weeks then it's a do-or-die Top 3 finish required for Amber & Bradie. At this point, Bradie needs to either show up & finish Top 3 at Nationals or hope that it's a really messy, sloppy competition if she isn't there.
 

Marco

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I don't agree that the spot is Jason's as long as he places no worse than 5th. The Group 3 selection criteria is Top 3 at Nationals OR 2021 International Scores. If Jimmy or Ilia place in the Top 3 at Nationals, they automatically vault into Group 3 and I can't see the USFS going against the results of Nationals for the 3rd Men's spot. I think this is especially true if Ilia replicates or betters his JGP Austria result at the JGPF and places 3rd since he is going to be seen as the future, up-and-coming star. Now, if it's someone who hasn't met either the Group 3 or Group 4 International Scores criteria who finishes in the Top 3, I do expect that Jason will get selected ahead of that man.
This gives the Committee the buffer / flexibility to choose within the group. If somehow all three of Jason, Ilia and Jimmy make it to Group, would / should the Committee name Jason whose average score is 260+, or Jimmy / Ilia whose average scores is some 30 points below and whose top one time score is also nowhere near 250?!
 

Karen-W

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This gives the Committee the buffer / flexibility to choose within the group. If somehow all three of Jason, Ilia and Jimmy make it to Group, would / should the Committee name Jason whose average score is 260+, or Jimmy / Ilia whose average scores is some 30 points below and whose top one time score is also nowhere near 250?!
But why? If Jason loses to one of those two in their, most likely (assuming Jason qualifies to the GPF and doesn't compete against Jimmy at Golden Spin), only head-to-head match-up of the season, then what reason is there to name Jason to the team? I think a lot is also going to depend on how the skaters perform at Nationals. If Jimmy or Ilia bring down the house and Jason is flat/skates poorly enough to lose to one of them, I'm not sure the Selection Committee is going to feel compelled to go against Nationals results for the #3 US man.
 

Marco

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But why? If Jason loses to one of those two in their, most likely (assuming Jason qualifies to the GPF and doesn't compete against Jimmy at Golden Spin), only head-to-head match-up of the season, then what reason is there to name Jason to the team?
Because the criteria are (deliberately) not just based on Nationals results.

Unless I missed a footnote that says - where there are more than one skaters within one group, the skater with the higher Nationals results shall prevail.

I think a lot is also going to depend on how the skaters perform at Nationals. If Jimmy or Ilia bring down the house and Jason is flat/skates poorly enough to lose to one of them, I'm not sure the Selection Committee is going to feel compelled to go against Nationals results for the #3 US man.

Sure Nationals will matter. But didn't Ross beat Vincent and Adam at Nationals too? My feeling is the written criteria are deliberately left vague for a reason (and to ensure a similar controversy would no longer be regarded as a controversy this time around).
 
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Karen-W

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Because the criteria are not just based on Nationals results.
Actually, for Group 3 and Group 4, Nationals results OR 2021 International Scores are enough to put you in either category. Let's hypothesize that Ilia matches/betters his JGP Austria result at the GPF - at that point, he's going to be in Group 3 due to his International scores.

Let's say the Nationals results are:

1) Nathan
2) Jimmy
3) Yaroslav
4) Ilia
5) Vincent
6) Jason

The Group categories would then look like this:

Group 1 - Nathan (Top 3 at Nationals AND Consistently scored equal to Top 3 at Worlds)
Group 2 - Vincent (Top 5 at Nationals AND Consistently scored equal to Top 5 at Worlds/Scored Once equal to Top 3 at Worlds)
Group 3 -
- Jimmy (Top 3 at Nationals)
- Yaroslav (Top 3 at Nationals)
- Ilia (Consistently scored equal to Top 10 at Worlds)
- Jason (Consistently scored equal to Top 10 at Worlds)

Nathan & Vincent are named to the team since they are in the higher priority groups, and the Selection Committee can pick whomever they want from Group 3. Why would you select your 6th place finisher? Even if his International scores are much higher than any of the other guys, there is still something to be said for how you perform at Nationals. And, maybe it's no more than a point or two separating Jimmy, Yaroslav, Ilia and Vincent and a big drop to Jason.

By the way, before everyone attacks me and says "you just don't want Jason to make the team!" - this scenario is ENTIRELY hypothetical. In no way do I expect Jason to finish 6th at Nationals. I will be surprised if he isn't 3rd. This scenario is merely a way of demonstrating how the Groups could wind up after we know the results of Nationals. I don't presume to know what the Selection Committee will do but I do, very firmly, believe that Jason is only guaranteed that 3rd Olympic spot if he finishes Top 3 at Nationals and that if he loses to any of the other men, but especially to Jimmy or Ilia, who have both at least established themselves (right now) in Group 4 by virtue of their 2021 International Scores, then there is a strong likelihood the Selection Committee will name whichever guy finishes highest at Nationals.
 

VGThuy

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You and Marco are both probably right if that makes sense. If Jason places fifth but isn’t too far off the skaters who aren’t Nathan and Vincent, I can see him being named. If he totally blows it at Nationals though and is a distant fifth and say Ilia AND someone else blows it out the park with their TES, then it becomes much murkier and I can see the selection committee going with national rankings.
 

Jammers

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How sad if Karen is considered a lock considering she hasn't won a damn thing so far this season no medals nothing which is par for the course for her internationally. Here's hoping the youngsters like Lindsay put it together at Nationals or Mariah or even Amber get on the podium and Bradie comes back.
 

Coco

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The "Polina Edmunds Treatment" would be a great name for a band.

I think Marco's write up was pretty great, even though I'm the one that's been saying Jason is vulnerable. I do think he is vulnerable but only to Ilia. Jimmy has been around for a while and has someone fortunate inconsistencies. But Ilya, if he knocks it out of the park at Nationals, could be in line for, as Marco called it, the Polina Edmunds treatment.
 
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VGThuy

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How sad if Karen is considered a lock considering she hasn't won a damn thing so far this season no medals nothing which is par for the course for her internationally. Here's hoping the youngsters like Lindsay put it together at Nationals or Mariah or even Amber get on the podium and Bradie comes back.
It’s not like any of the skaters you’ve listed made their case either. Singling out Karen when the skaters you want to beat her are even worse with regard to consistency (and for years and that’s the “realness”) and are on the same boat as to not “winning a damn thing”. It seems some skaters are allowed to mess up their whole career and they’ll be excuses made while skaters doing the same thing won’t be given that same benefit…and then there’s spreading of hype too…realness; so and so doesn’t UR (she does and actually often); this junior skater is the new savior but forgive her if she doesn’t score as high as the seniors we don’t want on the team…etc.
 

Tahuu

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Sure Nationals will matter. But didn't Ross beat Vincent and Adam at Nationals too? My feeling is the written criteria are deliberately left vague for a reason (and to ensure a similar controversy would no longer be regarded as a controversy this time around).

There’s a significant difference between Ross and Ilia: a goner vs a riser and future leader. Ilia beating Jason won’t be the same as Ross beating Adam.
 

thvu

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How sad if Karen is considered a lock considering she hasn't won a damn thing so far this season no medals nothing which is par for the course for her internationally. Here's hoping the youngsters like Lindsay put it together at Nationals or Mariah or even Amber get on the podium and Bradie comes back.
Did you ask Karen for an autograph and she said no or something? :drama:
 

Tavi

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Re Jason: I think it’s obvious that if Jason bombs at Nats this year - and by that I mean he underperforms badly enough to place 5th or 6th as in the examples above - he won’t be on the 2022 team. We know because that’s what happened in 2018. Based on his interviews and how his season has gone so far, my personal impression is that he’s in a much better place than he was in 2017-18 and that he’s unlikely to tank like that a second time. But only time will tell.

Re Ilia: he’s very talented, has competed well on the JGP this season, has made no secret of the fact that he’s gunning for an Olympic spot this year, and is doing his best to create a continuing buzz by frequently posting vids of new quads and quad combos. But to date, his median score is only 222, and it took a big nosedive after his last competition. Some might argue that his scores from junior comps should be factored higher because juniors have fewer elements, but I’m not sure I agree. In his only senior competition this season he was quite messy (two falls, two <, two q’s) and had quite a low score. So it’s not clear he that would have skated cleanly & earned higher scores at his junior comps if those extra elements had been included. Regarding whether he should be sent to the Olys because he’s “the future,” I always think it’s kind of funny that people cite Polina as the model, because although she, like Ilia, did quite well on the JGP in the 2013-14 Olympic season, she never accomplished much as a senior. So I’m not sure using her as a model for why Ilia should be selected makes much sense. Again, we’ll have a better picture in a few weeks.

Re Jimmy: while I suppose it’s always possible he could beat Jason at Golden Spin, at the moment his median scores are about 30+ points lower than Jason’s, and despite the medals, his scores seem to be trending down.

Re Yaro: okay, he has a lot of quads. Ilia has quads. Jimmy has quads. Yeah, that theoretically puts Jason at a great disadvantage to all of them. All of them could probably beat him at Nats. But the truth is, this year and throughout his career, Jason has beat out an awful lot of guys with an awful lot of quads. Unless he really tanks at Nats or USFS really doesn’t want him on the team, there’s no reason to think guys with quads are likely to overcome now.
 

wickedwitch

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Re Jason: I think it’s obvious that if Jason bombs at Nats this year - and by that I mean he underperforms badly enough to place 5th or 6th as in the examples above - he won’t be on the 2022 team. We know because that’s what happened in 2018. Based on his interviews and how his season has gone so far, my personal impression is that he’s in a much better place than he was in 2017-18 and that he’s unlikely to tank like that a second time. But only time will tell.

Re Ilia: he’s very talented, has competed well on the JGP this season, has made no secret of the fact that he’s gunning for an Olympic spot this year, and is doing his best to create a continuing buzz by frequently posting vids of new quads and quad combos. But to date, his median score is only 222, and it took a big nosedive after his last competition. Some might argue that his scores from junior comps should be factored higher because juniors have fewer elements, but I’m not sure I agree. In his only senior competition this season he was quite messy (two falls, two <, two q’s) and had quite a low score. So it’s not clear he that would have skated cleanly & earned higher scores at his junior comps if those extra elements had been included. Regarding whether he should be sent to the Olys because he’s “the future,” I always think it’s kind of funny that people cite Polina as the model, because although she, like Ilia, did quite well on the JGP in the 2013-14 Olympic season, she never accomplished much as a senior. So I’m not sure using her as a model for why Ilia should be selected makes much sense. Again, we’ll have a better picture in a few weeks.
I would put good money on Jason beating Ilia at Nats, if just because Ilia has never been super consistent, assuming Jason's PCS advantage is approximately canceled out by Ilia's base value advantage. But if Ilia beats Jason and is top 3, I think there's no chance they don't send Ilia. This would not be my personal preference, just a prediction based on USFSA's past actions. It would be one thing if there were only two spots and they needed Jason/Ilia for the team event, but they don't. So they'll go for the man with more future potential.
 

tony

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I would put good money on Jason beating Ilia at Nats, if just because Ilia has never been super consistent, assuming Jason's PCS advantage is approximately canceled out by Ilia's base value advantage. But if Ilia beats Jason and is top 3, I think there's no chance they don't send Ilia. This would not be my personal preference, just a prediction based on USFSA's past actions. It would be one thing if there were only two spots and they needed Jason/Ilia for the team event, but they don't. So they'll go for the man with more future potential.
Yeah, I agree completely with this. As long as Jason doesn't fall twice in a program, I think his PCS is probably going to be 47.5 and 95+ and of course he's going to get huge GOE. If he makes smaller mistakes such as popped jumps to doubles and singles (via how Rippon missed the podium in 2018) and Malinin gets most of his jumps ratified, then he may be in trouble. Although remember Zhou got a ton of calls against him in the LP in '18 and his score went way down, but it still was enough to hold on.

I know Malinin is doing all these crazy jumps but there's no point in going for a 3+4 combination. A 'conservative' :lol: program like he attempted in his senior international debut may be enough on its own, if he's on.
 

VGThuy

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Yeah, I agree completely with this. As long as Jason doesn't fall twice in a program, I think his PCS is probably going to be 47.5 and 95+ and of course he's going to get huge GOE. If he makes smaller mistakes such as popped jumps to doubles and singles (via how Rippon missed the podium in 2018) and Malinin gets most of his jumps ratified, then he may be in trouble. Although remember Zhou got a ton of calls against him in the LP in '18 and his score went way down, but it still was enough to hold on.

I know Malinin is doing all these crazy jumps but there's no point in going for a 3+4 combination. A 'conservative' :lol: program like he attempted in his senior international debut may be enough on its own, if he's on.
Yeah, save the crazy for the Olympics where he can make a statement because him skating safely will just result in a "respectable" ranking...unless every man above him implodes and pops their way out of contention....
 

Tavi

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I’m actually curious why so many people think “future potential” is a trump card, and why it only seems to factor into the men’s selection process? Because as Polina demonstrates, potential doesn’t always pan out, and I haven’t heard a whole lot of people arguing that we should send Lindsay and G/P to the Olympics.
 

VGThuy

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I’m actually curious why so many people think “future potential” is a trump card, and why it only seems to factor into the men’s selection process? Because as Polina demonstrates, potential doesn’t always pan out, and I haven’t heard a whole lot of people arguing that we should send Lindsay and G/P to the Olympics.
I actually been hearing that a lot with Lindsay. As for G/P there's been talk that they will be a threat but mostly because we haven't seen Hawayek/Baker this season and some are worried if they will be in the most competitive shape by Nationals. Of course, we'll find out soon enough later this week. At least with G/P, we see them inching close to what H/B scored at 2021 Worlds so there's some evidence there. Malinin is still based on people assuming he'll hit his TES in senior level competition and receive no calls on his jumps....
 

Karen-W

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I’m actually curious why so many people think “future potential” is a trump card, and why it only seems to factor into the men’s selection process? Because as Polina demonstrates, potential doesn’t always pan out, and I haven’t heard a whole lot of people arguing that we should send Lindsay and G/P to the Olympics.
Oh, I think there has been some definite chatter about sending Lindsay - and I think just as strong an argument can be made for her as Ilia, maybe even stronger since her JGP scores and her Warsaw score are at least as decent/good as any of the other women we have not named Alysa, plus she's attempting the 3A. But, part of what is complicating the women's picture is that 1) we haven't seen Bradie yet, and 2) we have 2 other women in Mariah and Amber who have been around the better part of the last 2 quads and haven't made the Olympic team yet.

I suspect there is less of an interest/push for Green/Parsons (or Lu/Mitrofanov in pairs) for a couple of reasons.

In Dance, like in Men, we have two legitimate medal contenders in HubDon and ChoBat, so there is no desire to push either off the team. Meanwhile, the US #3 for this past quad, HawBak, haven't been to the Olympics yet and they definitely have a fan base here on FSU, so most of us want to see them at least get their Olympic shot.

In Pairs, it's just a dogfight between the three top teams for two spots and even if we had 3 spots, I suspect that most of us on FSU would feel like K/F, C-G/L and C/J have "paid their dues" so to speak and somehow deserve the spots even if a legitimate argument can be made that LuMit with their remarkable consistency on the SBS jumps have more longterm potential and should get their Olympic feet wet ahead of 2026 when it will be their time to shine.

All in all, what I think it really boils down to is Jason isn't a medal contender and has already been to the Olympics and he won't contribute to the Team Event so why does he need to go again?
 

missing

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My one wildly speculative guess is that the USFS (and for that matter NBC) doesn't want Isabeau to win.

Nationals is something of a commercial for the Olympics, and it would not benefit anyone if an ineligible because of age teen phenom beats the previous teen phenom or any of the other relatively well known and well liked skaters.

As far as men go, Jason is beloved but Nathan is the money card and Vincent is the wild card. Beloved carries weight but it's not a necessity. I don't think Chock and Bates have done themselves any favors with their space alien program, so Hubbell and Donahue will most likely win and have the best shot of medaling at the Olympics. I won't guess pairs but presumably it'll be whoever makes the fewest mistakes and is most likely to make the fewest mistakes during the team competition.
 

VGThuy

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Chock/Bates have scored really well with their alien space program thus far. If anything, I think they cemented the idea that IF USFS chooses to use one ice dance team for the Team Event, then C/B would be as good of a choice as H/D or have made an argument that H/D should do the RD and they should do the FD. Of course, all of this can change in the GPF when we see how they all fare head-to-head with the top teams.
 

Karen-W

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Chock/Bates have scored really well with their alien space program thus far. If anything, I think they cemented the idea that IF USFS chooses to use one ice dance team for the Team Event, then C/B would be as good of a choice as H/D.
God, I hope they use both teams. I'm scared to death that the USFS in all its ineptness will not politik for either team in the individual event and they'll both wind up off the podium and I'll be pretty disappointed if one of them comes home without any hardware.
 

VGThuy

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God, I hope they use both teams. I'm scared to death that the USFS in all its ineptness will not politik for either team in the individual event and they'll both wind up off the podium and I'll be pretty disappointed if one of them comes home without any hardware.
To be honest, logically-speaking, the argument to use both teams is more emotion based than anything. If both teams are equally competitive and would rank the same then it would be most logical to just one and save the switch-a-roo for a discipline where we really need it.
 

her grace

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I’m actually curious why so many people think “future potential” is a trump card, and why it only seems to factor into the men’s selection process? Because as Polina demonstrates, potential doesn’t always pan out . . .

Polina Edmunds deserved to go in 2014 because she was the present, not because of her future potential. Finishing a solid second at nationals counts. And as to not panning out, Edmunds went on to finish top 10 at the Olympics, had two top-8 finishes at Worlds and won Four Continents before injury derailed her. That's a career to be proud of.
 

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