US elections 2021-2022

caseyedwards

Well-Known Member
Messages
18,252
Is it okay to post something here that isn't about cooking or body fat? :cautious:




I would like to see a list of other Democratic candidates for whom she will campaign.
Being a horrible neocon war monger I’m sure republicans might run ads attacking the democrat for accepting Cheneys endorsement
 

Louis

Private citizen
Messages
18,321
Mastriano made an admittedly confusing post on social media about 40 days of fasting and prayer from tomorrow until election day. The Philadelphia Inquirer picked it up and ran with it. He hasn't said anything about who is fasting or praying or what if anything it actually means. It is.... strange.
 

Allskate

Well-Known Member
Messages
11,863
I swear I’m still having trouble believing the straight news reporting on some of these campaigns: https://twitter.com/joshtpm/status/1575182385351602176?s=46&t=H-uXrWlfc6hZSQpFOXDEJA
It really is astonishing how bad some of the Pennsylvania GOP candidates are.

Dr. Oz is really out of touch and stupidly mocked Fetterman's clothes and "costume." It has backfired:


Tucker Carlson criticized Fetterman for his tattoos and "costume." Fetterman had a wonderful response:

 

olympic

Well-Known Member
Messages
10,599
Here's an article on how critical the Senate race in Nevada is:

This is true.

I think that worst outcome for the US Senate is 49-51: Fetterman might pick up an R seat being vacated by Toomey in PA, but if CCM and Warnock lose NV and GA, then McConnell gets a tiny majority, but that is the worst outcome. No other D seats seem competitive outside of NV and GA: Hasan has put some distance between herself and crazy Bolduc in NH, Kelly is OK thus far in AZ, and Bennet in CO was never competitive, although it had been listed as a potential R target at the beginning of the cycle.

The polls show CCM tied / statistically losing to Laxalt, but believe it or not, NV is one of a few states that UNDERestimated Dems in 2016 and 2018, so it is believable that she could pull it off. Warnock is very much in it in GA.

I'd like to see another D pick-up to secure things: Mandela Barnes in WI seems like #2 best bet after PA, and amazing that an idiot like Johnson is competitive, but apparently Rs are carpet bombing the air waves / internet.
 

Allskate

Well-Known Member
Messages
11,863
I think that worst outcome for the US Senate is 49-51: Fetterman might pick up an R seat being vacated by Toomey in PA, but if CCM and Warnock lose NV and GA, then McConnell gets a tiny majority, but that is the worst outcome.
That would be a very bad outcome IMO. Even without considering Sinema and Manchin.

The polls show CCM tied / statistically losing to Laxalt, but believe it or not, NV is one of a few states that UNDERestimated Dems in 2016 and 2018, so it is believable that she could pull it off. Warnock is very much in it in GA.
I don't think it would be entirely shocking if she pulled it off, but it would not be at all surprising if Laxalt won. There generally isn't a lot of good polling in Nevada and the polls have been close. Turnout will be critical. The Democratic governor is not popular. Inflation hits a state like Nevada worse than many others, which helps the party not in power.

I still can't get over Walker doing so well against Warnock in Georgia. SMH.
 

olympic

Well-Known Member
Messages
10,599
That would be a very bad outcome IMO. Even without considering Sinema and Manchin.


I don't think it would be entirely shocking if she pulled it off, but it would not be at all surprising if Laxalt won. There generally isn't a lot of good polling in Nevada and the polls have been close. Turnout will be critical. The Democratic governor is not popular. Inflation hits a state like Nevada worse than many others, which helps the party not in power.

I still can't get over Walker doing so well against Warnock in Georgia. SMH.
NO doubt. I was just pointing out that Rs best prospects for the Senate is to squeak through 49-51, but I acknowledge in this day and age that means very little, because of lock-step voting and maneuvers to shut out Ds when Rs have any sort of majority.

I had heard that NV is impossible to poll. I brought NV up in my previous post because 538 wrote an article not long ago - Are the Polls Wrong Again? What stood out was that NV was the 1 state in 2016 [Pro-Trump] and 2018 [Democratic wave - sort of] that the D vote was underestimated in both an R year and a D year.

But like you stated, a services industry state gets hit hard by inflation.

Still, NV doesn't seem like a heavy evangelical state, meaning NV women (and other) voters are undoubtedly going to be negative perhaps pissed about SCOTUS overreach in re Dobbs.

----

Re Polls - 538 also brought up that this may be an asterisk election year, meaning there is no precedent for the type of election we will face in November: Some huge events occurred in this cycle - Exiting a once in a century pandemic, climate change more and more real, all the seditious events surrounding the 1/6 insurrection now being made public, and the revocation of a high profile right by SCOTUS. Usually, mid-terms are about a sitting POTUS. So many events are way beyond this ... How will people vote

It really will be about who shows up ....
 

Karen-W

Neither sexy nor sultry, but loving life!
Messages
23,159
Re Polls - 538 also brought up that this may be an asterisk election year, meaning there is no precedent for the type of election we will face in November: Some huge events occurred in this cycle - Exiting a once in a century pandemic, climate change more and more real, all the seditious events surrounding the 1/6 insurrection now being made public, and the revocation of a high profile right by SCOTUS. Usually, mid-terms are about a sitting POTUS. So many events are way beyond this ... How will people vote

It really will be about who shows up ....
Six weeks out from election day and I'm just going to label this "wishful thinking" on all the reasons why Dems think they have a chance at winning when, as always, "it's the economy, stupid" and the economy is not favoring the way the POTUS has handled a damn thing since he was inaugurated. Polls are already trending back post-Labor Day, as was predicted by those who've been following this for many election cycles, toward the GOP.
 

olympic

Well-Known Member
Messages
10,599
Six weeks out from election day and I'm just going to label this "wishful thinking" on all the reasons why Dems think they have a chance at winning when, as always, "it's the economy, stupid" and the economy is not favoring the way the POTUS has handled a damn thing since he was inaugurated. Polls are already trending back post-Labor Day, as was predicted by those who've been following this for many election cycles, toward the GOP.
I hope you saw the last paragraph of my post. There are some house-on-fire issues that living Americans have not dealt with in their lifetime. So, it's not illogical to think this election cycle could be different. And I really hope you are not minimizing 1/6, climate change, and Dobbs

Nate Silver (538) is a polling analyst and I would hardly label him anything more than a cog in corporate America these days. He is the one stating that there is likelihood of this cycle being asterisked, since voter's patterns and behaviors have been peculiar or different than normal - decision based on sitting President. Ds well outperformed in the NY House races and actually won the AK seat. That last one is unheard of.

I'm also not sure what polls you are looking at. I check them every morning. Go to 538 - There is an article less than a week old 'No GOP bounce'. I outlined my belief based on the info provided that Ds stand a better chance of retaining the Senate, but it's a struggle in the House. All the seats that would keep the Ds in majority our toss-ups. So, not likely but not impossible.

Speaking of the economy, it's not across-the-board bad: There has been full recovery of jobs to pre-pandemic levels, something like 668,000 jobs created in manufacturing. You seem to forget that Biden inherited a steaming turd of an economy, as did Obama in 09 FTR

Perhaps voters see that. Perhaps they see the stories of pregnant pre-pubescents now unable to get health care due to Dobbs and decided that's more alarming than inflation. Perhaps they see one party still licking the backside of the bloated Orange, who is looking more and more like a criminal these days and decided they can't be trusted.

WE can eventually get around inflation. It will be generations to retrieve rights lost
 

Louis

Private citizen
Messages
18,321
I'd still like to know what the GOP would do about inflation.

Cut taxes so people have more money. Eliminate regulation to spur competition. Hopefully use a time of low unemployment to drastically reduce the size of government. I'm still waiting for someone, anyone, to actually "drain the swamp." Keep drilling to maintain US energy independence and avoid the nightmares that Europe is facing.

I'm not as optimistic as Karen-W. There are too many kooky candidates in otherwise winnable states. The Dems will hold the Senate, barring some type of game-changing event. There's pretty much no bad thing Biden can do to make people vote for the likes of Oz, Masters, and Bolduc. Herschel Walker hasn't done himself any favors either.

I do think the Republicans will pick up the House.
 

Sparks

Well-Known Member
Messages
13,768
Student loan forgiveness helps put more money in people's pockets, reducing the cost of prescription drugs puts money in people's pockets, lowering insurance (especially Medicare) premiums, and raising the minimum wage puts money in people's pockets - BUT the GOP in the House voted against those things
 

Allskate

Well-Known Member
Messages
11,863
But like you stated, a services industry state gets hit hard by inflation.

Still, NV doesn't seem like a heavy evangelical state, meaning NV women (and other) voters are undoubtedly going to be negative perhaps pissed about SCOTUS overreach in re Dobbs.
It's not a heavily evangelical state, though there is still an element of the "culture wars." And there is a Ron Paul kind of libertarian element. And, of course, as in other states, there are people who believe in conspiracy theories and think the election was stolen. But, IMO, it really is the economy that is a big driver in a potential shift - and it doesn't take a big shift.

When Trump visited Nevada, he famously said, "I love the poorly educated." There is a higher percentage of people with lower incomes, and inflation hits poor people harder when they have to pay more for essentials such as rent, gas (which is higher than the American average in Nevada), and food. It doesn't matter whether it is logical; a lot of people blame incumbent Democratic politicians for things like gas prices. When I see attack ads by Republicans challenging Democratic candidates, they criticize inflation without saying what they would do about it. (Exhibit A: Dr. Oz complaining about the cost of crudite.) The midterms almost always are worse for the party in power.

Although Nevada is heavily reliant on hospitality and tourism, that actually has been booming recently, which may help a little with the union vote. Nevada opened up earlier than many other states, but I think there were a lot of people who wanted it opened up earlier (or thought that COVID was a hoax and/or never wanted any measures taken; just let more people die and let the hospitals be even more overrun).

I think that turnout is going to be key. Economic issues are huge drivers. Beliefs that the election was stolen in 2020 and might be stolen again this time is a driver. The January 6 Committee and the search of MAL are drivers (possibly both ways.) Dobbs also is a driver, but I don't think it is a bigger driver than economics.

Student loan forgiveness helps put more money in people's pockets, reducing the cost of prescription drugs puts money in people's pockets, lowering insurance (especially Medicare) premiums, and raising the minimum wage puts money in people's pockets - BUT the GOP in the House voted against those things

Younger people don't turn out to vote as much as older people, so I'm not sure what impact loan forgiveness will have. But, combine that with Dobbs, and maybe there will be slightly more turnout for younger people in some parts of the country.

I guess Georgians love football more than Pennsylvanians love quacks.
They love nutty football players. I do wonder how many of the people voting for him are voting for him just because he is Republican, not because they think he is smart or competent and would be great.
 

Karen-W

Neither sexy nor sultry, but loving life!
Messages
23,159
I hope you saw the last paragraph of my post. There are some house-on-fire issues that living Americans have not dealt with in their lifetime. So, it's not illogical to think this election cycle could be different. And I really hope you are not minimizing 1/6, climate change, and Dobbs

Nate Silver (538) is a polling analyst and I would hardly label him anything more than a cog in corporate America these days. He is the one stating that there is likelihood of this cycle being asterisked, since voter's patterns and behaviors have been peculiar or different than normal - decision based on sitting President. Ds well outperformed in the NY House races and actually won the AK seat. That last one is unheard of.

I'm also not sure what polls you are looking at. I check them every morning. Go to 538 - There is an article less than a week old 'No GOP bounce'. I outlined my belief based on the info provided that Ds stand a better chance of retaining the Senate, but it's a struggle in the House. All the seats that would keep the Ds in majority our toss-ups. So, not likely but not impossible.

Speaking of the economy, it's not across-the-board bad: There has been full recovery of jobs to pre-pandemic levels, something like 668,000 jobs created in manufacturing. You seem to forget that Biden inherited a steaming turd of an economy, as did Obama in 09 FTR

Perhaps voters see that. Perhaps they see the stories of pregnant pre-pubescents now unable to get health care due to Dobbs and decided that's more alarming than inflation. Perhaps they see one party still licking the backside of the bloated Orange, who is looking more and more like a criminal these days and decided they can't be trusted.

WE can eventually get around inflation. It will be generations to retrieve rights lost
Oh, I saw your paragraph. Read it even. And you're still forgetting the one thing that matters more than all - the economy and the fact that we are in a recession, and the fact that no one has forgotten "this is transitory inflation." And, frankly, when I look at the economy, I consider what I have seen in the mortgage industry (sitting here officially unemployed as my 60-day notice/non-working leave ended this past weekend) and the housing market overall, I am very worried about 1) finding another job, and 2) how long these new jobs that have been created will last as more and more employers continue to tighten their belts. It's not rosy, no matter how much you try and convince yourself of this.

I'm perfectly aware of who Nate Silver is and his website - I remember following him when no one was following him. I don't dismiss him, but I'm going to suggest that perhaps you also follow Trafalgar Group to see where their polling is, because it's been the most accurate during the last few election cycles. There is definitely a GOP bounce happening, compared to a month ago. But, maybe Silver is looking at the data over the course of the last 4 months, and the GOP is still down from where they were polling in May and June.

As far as what voters see - are you kidding me? I'm really curious as to exactly how many pre-pubescent pregnant girls you think there are in this country. Especially since pre-pubescent means these young women haven't even had their first period and, therefore, aren't able to get pregnant. Maybe, stop reading those misleading, alarmist headlines and apply some basic logic before asserting that girls who are unable, at the pre-pubescent stage, to get pregnant are losing any rights. :rolleyes:
 

MacMadame

Doing all the things
Messages
51,480
I'd still like to know what the GOP would do about inflation.
Blame it on Biden. And nothing else. ;)

As far as what voters see - are you kidding me? I'm really curious as to exactly how many pre-pubescent pregnant girls you think there are in this country. Especially since pre-pubescent means these young women haven't even had their first period and, therefore, aren't able to get pregnant. Maybe, stop reading those misleading, alarmist headlines and apply some basic logic before asserting that girls who are unable, at the pre-pubescent stage, to get pregnant are losing any rights. :rolleyes:
Nitpicking at language doesn't change the fact that many are horrified about what is happening to young girls who were raped at an age that they can't safely carry a pregnancy to term.

The issue with polls, all of them, is that they don't just ask people what they think about things and tally up the results. They make models -- in this care of who they think will be likely voters. So when they fail, it's because their models are wrong. And for this election, who likely voters will be is very much up in the air IMO. People are guessing and building those guesses into models. We don't know who will get it right until after the election.

538 is not a pollster. They aggregate other people's polls. So when comparing them to a pollster is comparing apples to oranges. Though both do use models rather than raw data. But 538's raw data is other people's modeled data. It's just not the same.

P.S. People always say it's the economy but the strongest correlation for who voted for Trump was not related to someone's economic position, but to bigotry. Whether or not someone is a racist actually correlated more strongly than whether or not they were a Republican. So, no, it's not always the economy.
 

Louis

Private citizen
Messages
18,321
Sounds good, but I think Republicans would slit their own throats before cutting taxes in a way that would have an effect on the majority of Americans.

That would be impossible since the majority of Americans don't pay any income taxes, which is a big part of the problem. The US needs to significantly raise taxes on the working and middle class, and stop all of these ridiculous credits, etc. No more free shit. No more subsidies for your voting base. No more Robin Hood style taxation. Everyone needs some skin in the game for there to be any accountability. It's easy to demand whatever you want when others are paying the bill.
 

caseyedwards

Well-Known Member
Messages
18,252
That would be impossible since the majority of Americans don't pay any income taxes, which is a big part of the problem. The US needs to significantly raise taxes on the working and middle class, and stop all of these ridiculous credits, etc. No more free shit. No more subsidies for your voting base. No more Robin Hood style taxation. Everyone needs some skin in the game for there to be any accountability. It's easy to demand whatever you want when others are paying the bill.
This is what Rick Scott was saying. Americans are actually the most undertaxed people in the world in many ways! So many pay no income taxes. The worst thing in tax history is of course the SALT deduction. Worst thing in American law. Imagine using what should be federal tax money to pay for local taxes. Truly insane. Trying to figure out the history. How such a stupid thing became law.
 

Aussie Willy

Hates both vegemite and peanut butter
Messages
26,136
I'd still like to know what the GOP would do about inflation.
I would like to know what the GOP would do about anything that helps the average American, doesn't treat women and minorities as political point scoring fodder and stops kids being killed.

Seriously I have not heard any practical sensible policy (if you could call them policies) that doesn't hurt people they don't like. That is it.
 
Last edited:

olympic

Well-Known Member
Messages
10,599
Oh, I saw your paragraph. Read it even. And you're still forgetting the one thing that matters more than all - the economy and the fact that we are in a recession, and the fact that no one has forgotten "this is transitory inflation." And, frankly, when I look at the economy, I consider what I have seen in the mortgage industry (sitting here officially unemployed as my 60-day notice/non-working leave ended this past weekend) and the housing market overall, I am very worried about 1) finding another job, and 2) how long these new jobs that have been created will last as more and more employers continue to tighten their belts. It's not rosy, no matter how much you try and convince yourself of this.

I'm perfectly aware of who Nate Silver is and his website - I remember following him when no one was following him. I don't dismiss him, but I'm going to suggest that perhaps you also follow Trafalgar Group to see where their polling is, because it's been the most accurate during the last few election cycles. There is definitely a GOP bounce happening, compared to a month ago. But, maybe Silver is looking at the data over the course of the last 4 months, and the GOP is still down from where they were polling in May and June.

As far as what voters see - are you kidding me? I'm really curious as to exactly how many pre-pubescent pregnant girls you think there are in this country. Especially since pre-pubescent means these young women haven't even had their first period and, therefore, aren't able to get pregnant. Maybe, stop reading those misleading, alarmist headlines and apply some basic logic before asserting that girls who are unable, at the pre-pubescent stage, to get pregnant are losing any rights. :rolleyes:

Pregnant, 10-12 yr. old girls are victims of rape just by virtue of their age. They exist.

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news...o-girl-pregnant-indiana-abortion/10049383002/

They now can't access an abortion in many states because of a situation created by all Republican-appointed SCOTUS judges: Striking down Roe v. Wade. Three of whom - Alito, Gorsuch, Kavanaugh, lied under oath about how they would treat Roe.

Pretty coarse of you to dismiss all of that.
 

once_upon

Enough
Messages
24,029
Cut taxes so people have more money.
Followed several posts later
That would be impossible since the majority of Americans don't pay any income taxes, which is a big part of the problem. The US needs to significantly raise taxes on the working and middle class, and stop all of these ridiculous credits, etc.

Except the "ridiculous credit", and tax breaks are for wealthy and corporations.
 

purple skates

Shadow Dancing
Messages
22,275
Regarding polls….during the pandemic I circulated a petition to strike a law that allowed the governor of Michigan to unilaterally make rules affecting people’s freedoms during the pandemic. Not because I hate Whitmer (D), not because I’m some sort of militia member, but because it was bad law that gave the governor the ability to act without legislative input. Ever since, I get the far right emails like crazy, and lately texts supporting the crazy far right candidates running for the executive offices here.

Today I got a text for a poll. :cheer: I took great joy in telling them that I vote in 100% of the elections, that I identify as a Republican, and that I will not be voting for their election-denier nutcases.
 
Last edited:

clairecloutier

Well-Known Member
Messages
13,969
As far as what voters see - are you kidding me? I'm really curious as to exactly how many pre-pubescent pregnant girls you think there are in this country. Especially since pre-pubescent means these young women haven't even had their first period and, therefore, aren't able to get pregnant. Maybe, stop reading those misleading, alarmist headlines and apply some basic logic before asserting that girls who are unable, at the pre-pubescent stage, to get pregnant are losing any rights. :rolleyes:


What even is this paragraph.
 

PrincessLeppard

Holding Alex Johnson's Pineapple
Messages
27,901
That would be impossible since the majority of Americans don't pay any income taxes, which is a big part of the problem. The US needs to significantly raise taxes on the working and middle class, and stop all of these ridiculous credits, etc. No more free shit. No more subsidies for your voting base. No more Robin Hood style taxation. Everyone needs some skin in the game for there to be any accountability. It's easy to demand whatever you want when others are paying the bill.
I think I just got a bingo on my right-wing buzzword card.
 

Users who are viewing this thread

Top
Do Not Sell My Personal Information