U.S. Men 2021-22 season news & updates

Caffeinatedkmc

New Member
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6
I want to preface this by saying that I am not wishing for it to happen and I don’t think it will happen? I just can’t get it out of my head.

In order to not qualify a spot for the US at Nebelhorn, how badly would Vincent have to do? Given the field, there aren’t that many men with good scoring potential. There’s the people hoping to qualify an additional spot (Roman, Mark, Adam), but even with a bad skate would Vincent not be in the top 7 of those trying to qualify?
 

Willin

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2,261
I think Tomoki's biggest issue is his speed. Everything else is great - his edges, spins, artistry, etc. But he is slowwwwww. You can't go extremely fast into jumps, but if you're not going fast enough you won't have the power needed to get up and around those jumps.
 

Sylvia

U.S. Qualifying season is underway!
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67,162

Tavi

Well-Known Member
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2,091
I want to preface this by saying that I am not wishing for it to happen and I don’t think it will happen? I just can’t get it out of my head.

In order to not qualify a spot for the US at Nebelhorn, how badly would Vincent have to do? Given the field, there aren’t that many men with good scoring potential. There’s the people hoping to qualify an additional spot (Roman, Mark, Adam), but even with a bad skate would Vincent not be in the top 7 of those trying to qualify?
It’s hard to predict the score cutoff, but I’m pretty sure he’s safe! 😂 He looked to be in great shape at Cranberry Cup, where he scored 288.26, which is in another league from the other guys trying to qualify spots.

In 2017, the men were competing for 6 Olympic spots at Nebelhorn. Interestingly, the last spot was qualified for UA by Yaro, with a score of 208.76. There was a pretty big gap with the first person who didn’t qualify (Michael Christian Martinez with a score of 191.74).

That said, if the ISU personal bests of the guys competing this year are anything to go by, the cut off for qualifying will probably be higher. They may not reflect current reality for all the usual reasons, and Mark Kondratiuk, doesn’t even have an ISU PB yet. But FWIW, the 7 highest PBs (obviously excluding Mark) range from 299.01 (Vincent) to 218.31 (South Korea).

Vincent would have to mess up both programs pretty badly to fall outside that range. For comparison, in 2019 (the year he started at Brown) he scored 231.95 at US Classic for what I recall was a fairly shaky performance. To put things in even more perspective, Vincent’s FS score at Cranberry Cup was 185.73. So even if he got a terrible case of nerves and scored like 60 in the SP, assuming he came back like gang busters in the free and came close to his FS score at Cranberry Cup, he would almost certainly score well enough to qualify.
 

Kateri

void beast
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4,926
I want to preface this by saying that I am not wishing for it to happen and I don’t think it will happen? I just can’t get it out of my head.

In order to not qualify a spot for the US at Nebelhorn, how badly would Vincent have to do? Given the field, there aren’t that many men with good scoring potential. There’s the people hoping to qualify an additional spot (Roman, Mark, Adam), but even with a bad skate would Vincent not be in the top 7 of those trying to qualify?
Don't forget that he can't fail to qualify for the FS, everyone qualifies. So it's incredibly unlikely that he could skate so badly in both parts of the competition that he wouldn't make top 7.
 

Vagabond

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19,665
It’s hard to predict the score cutoff, but I’m pretty sure he’s safe! 😂
Don't forget that he can't fail to qualify for the FS, everyone qualifies. So it's incredibly unlikely that he could skate so badly in both parts of the competition that he wouldn't make top 7.
:yikes:

I sure hope that the skategods have this thread on Ignore.
 

Caffeinatedkmc

New Member
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6
It’s hard to predict the score cutoff, but I’m pretty sure he’s safe! 😂 He looked to be in great shape at Cranberry Cup, where he scored 288.26, which is in another league from the other guys trying to qualify spots.

In 2017, the men were competing for 6 Olympic spots at Nebelhorn. Interestingly, the last spot was qualified for UA by Yaro, with a score of 208.76. There was a pretty big gap with the first person who didn’t qualify (Michael Christian Martinez with a score of 191.74).

That said, if the ISU personal bests of the guys competing this year are anything to go by, the cut off for qualifying will probably be higher. They may not reflect current reality for all the usual reasons, and Mark Kondratiuk, doesn’t even have an ISU PB yet. But FWIW, the 7 highest PBs (obviously excluding Mark) range from 299.01 (Vincent) to 218.31 (South Korea).

Vincent would have to mess up both programs pretty badly to fall outside that range. For comparison, in 2019 (the year he started at Brown) he scored 231.95 at US Classic for what I recall was a fairly shaky performance. To put things in even more perspective, Vincent’s FS score at Cranberry Cup was 185.73. So even if he got a terrible case of nerves and scored like 60 in the SP, assuming he came back like gang busters in the free and came close to his FS score at Cranberry Cup, he would almost certainly score well enough to qualify.
That was my thinking as well. He has a cushion to work with from technical elements in the FS. I also just looked it up and his World's SP score (70.51) is still higher than the ISU PB's of all but 7 others looking to qualify.
 

VGThuy

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35,350
It's interesting to note that had Vincent skated his Cranberry performance in the LP combined with his Worlds 2021 non-qualifying 25th place SP score, he would have placed 9th at 2021 Worlds. Even if we deduct 10 points to make it match his 2020 Skate America LP score earlier that season, he still would have placed 9th at 2021 Worlds. That's the kind of ammo Vincent has in his LP. He just had a crazy SP performance that he never had before that took him out of the LP. I believe he took 2021 Worlds as a true lesson learned for him, hopefully.
 

Caffeinatedkmc

New Member
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6
It's interesting to note that had Vincent skated his Cranberry performance in the LP combined with his Worlds 2021 non-qualifying 25th place SP score, he would have placed 9th at 2021 Worlds. Even if we deduct 10 points to make it match his 2020 Skate America LP score earlier that season, he still would have placed 9th at 2021 Worlds. That's the kind of ammo Vincent has in his LP. He just had a crazy SP performance that he never had before that took him out of the LP. I believe he took 2021 Worlds as a true lesson learned for him, hopefully.
That is wild. I will still probably only be able to watch him skate from between my fingers because he stresses me out.

Also, if you used the SkAM score, it would still be higher than the ISU PB for any other Nebelhorn competitor, and the only person within 20 of it is Roman.
 

olympic

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10,090
I think a very safe score to qualify at Nebelhorn would be about 230 points. Now, Vincent could be lower and still qualify but it would still be something of a risk
 

Sylvia

U.S. Qualifying season is underway!
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Maxim Naumov article by Kat Cornetta in the Boston Globe before he competes at the U.S. International Classic in his hometown tomorrow night:
(I was able to read the article via my phone: https://twitter.com/BGlobeSports/status/1438222211605843972)

ETA that USFS' Fan Zone published a Maxim Naumov article by Darci Miller on Sept. 12:
 
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Tavi

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2,091
I could be wrong, but it seems to me Vincent usually handles pressure pretty well and that when he underperforms, it’s mostly injury related. If there’s a problem, it may be that he needs to learn to better assess how an injury will impact his ability to perform, the likely consequences if he’s wrong, and when it’s best to withdraw. Hopefully he’s learned from what happened at Worlds and won’t be injured / make a similar mistake at Nebelhorn.

I’m rooting for him to stay healthy, skate well, and earn that spot!
 

misskarne

Handy Emergency Backup Mode
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21,226
Well, no chance of that happening here. Give him some credit. He had a truly bad SP skate.
I'm sure people said there was no chance of him missing the SP at Worlds, either.

He also had a truly bad free skate at 2018 Worlds, too. Let's not pretend this is the only time he's fluffed it on the world stage or when spots were on the line.

And it's not an excuse. With all the hype and carry-on around him and people loudly shouting about his base value, it should not have been too much to ask to expect that he could perform the "simple" task of finishing 24th or higher in the SP so that the US could have had those three spots and not had to go through Nebelhorn at all.

I would like to think he shouldn't have any trouble at Nebelhorn, but he hasn't earned the right to any certainty, since he's the reason there's uncertainty at all!
 

VGThuy

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35,350
Well, we know there’s no chance of him missing the LP cut off at Nebelhorn since one doesn’t exist there. As for cutting him some slack and not treating him like trash, sorry that some of us don’t have a default to think the absolutely worst of him. I mean nobody said anything even remotely grandiose and you took offense to it anyway because it didn’t paint Vincent as the most useless person ever.
 

skatingguy

Golden Team
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9,148
Let’s also not forget that Zhou is a World bronze medalist. He can skate.
The question is if he will skate like a World medalist, or like a guy who missed the free skate at Worlds. I'm currently torn about whether I want to skate well, or not. If skates well that's kind of boring for the competition. If he bombs the short program then it becomes very interesting.
 

olympic

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10,090
Well, Zhou rarely bombs his programs, if that is any comfort, and when he does, it's for a very good reason.

He is not 100% consistent, but he is relatively so. His average performance has a mistake or two and I still think it will be enough to secure spot #3 for the US.
 

BittyBug

The missing ingredient
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23,725
VERY proud of Lucas Broussard's 5th place FS performance at his 2nd JGP in Krasnoyarsk today! :) He landed a clean 3A & 7 other triples and showcased his performance ability too: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CaMrOD-Dzp0
Broussard has so much potential. He's musical, has nice skating skills, and seems to be on a great track with his jumps. I love his costume, too.
 

Sylvia

U.S. Qualifying season is underway!
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Jacob Sanchez is now listed for the Gdansk JGP on the ISU site (replacing Eric Prober's placeholder spot) :cheer2:
Happy for Jacob! :) Yesterday I noticed Kai Kovar was listed as the placeholder in #6 Gdansk instead of Prober on the ISU site. USFS now has Eric listed as "withdrawn 9/15" from JGP #4 in Russia on their International Assignments page. It's very unfortunate he couldn't make his JGP debut there since he will be 19 in December and this is his final season of ISU Junior eligibility (heard Prober arrived in Krasnoyarsk but something happened -- injury? -- and he WD before the SP draw :( so is not listed in the results).
 

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