U.S.-Iran Crisis

Vagabond

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Previously in the Dangers Thread:





And now....

Today's Guardian live blog on the subject

Today's New York Times live blog on the subject


With Trump giving Iran a choice between war and negotiation, I am starting a new thread in the hope that Iran chooses the latter and this thread quickly becomes moot.
 
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BlueRidge

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I want to know who now is advising Trump, what are their backgrounds and experience? I can't remember anything about the Defense Secretary at the moment and I've forgotten who/if there is a National Security Advisor. The chaos in this WH has been extraordinary.
 

BlueRidge

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Saw this from Mark Sumner at Daily Kos:

And confronted by the idea that Iraqis may seek to remove U.S. troops from their country, Pompeo expressed certainty that the Iraqi public will “demand that the Iranians get out.”
Aside from deja vu about things the Bush Administration asserted about a war with Iraq (Iraqis would welcome US troops with flowers), this indicates that this administration which daily paints a fabricated picture of reality will act from within that false bubble in regard to Iran. This is frightening to say the least.
 

Cachoo

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I want to know who now is advising Trump, what are their backgrounds and experience? I can't remember anything about the Defense Secretary at the moment and I've forgotten who/if there is a National Security Advisor. The chaos in this WH has been extraordinary.
Who does Trump take advice from? As far as I can tell and from how he boasts I don't think he listens to anyone but Donald Trump. But no worries...remember Jared Kushner is going to bring peace to the Middle East.
 

BlueRidge

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Pompeo seems to be the main person in the administration speaking publicly about this, but whether he is just mouthing what he must to please Donald Trump or actually advised Trump on it, I don't suppose we can really know.

Trump apparently does have a National Security Advisor though I've seen no reference to that person in this crisis. Trump doesn't seem to have any involvement in any normal National Security Council processes, not surprisingly.

The Pentagon and the military have to be involved when military action is involved but again how much anyone in the Defense Department or military advised Trump as opposed to just carrying out his orders, we don't know.
 

Sparks

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Senior Dem leaders in Gang of Eight were not notified before the US strikes that killed Soleimani, though Graham - not a member of Gang of Eight - was briefed. Pelosi did speak to Esper for 13 mins — but several hours after the attack.
https://t.co/qmqcIqoGRD?amp=1
 

caseyedwards

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Who does Trump take advice from? As far as I can tell and from how he boasts I don't think he listens to anyone but Donald Trump. But no worries...remember Jared Kushner is going to bring peace to the Middle East.
Sean Hannity, Mark Levin etc
 

BlueRidge

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Here is Tim Kaine's statement:

As I have warned for years, Trump’s decision to tear up a diplomatic deal that was working and resume escalating aggressions with Iran has brought us to the brink of another war in the Middle East. Qassim Suleimani was a despicable killer, but this drastic escalation of hostilities — waging a military attack on Iraqi soil over the objections of that country and without congressional authorization — will increase the threat to American troops, diplomats, and families in the region. Trump's “maximum pressure” campaign has made the region less stable, divided us from key allies, and is driving our adversaries together. Congress must act to stop President Trump from entangling America in yet another unnecessary war in the Middle East.
 

Simone411

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Iran War: Does Iran Have Nuclear Weapons? Could It Nuke The US?

TENSIONS between Iran and the US have escalated, threatening World War 3. But does Iran have nuclear weapons?

One of the foremost military leaders of Iran was killed in a US airstrike in the early hours of Friday in the latest escalation of tensions between Iran and the US. Last year Iran threatened to accelerate its nuclear program this week, directly violating a nuclear agreement signed in 2015. Tensions between the US and Iran have neared breaking point over the past year after a series of attacks on oil tankers and the most recent use of a missile to sink a US drone in “international airspace”. Both countries have warned of terrifying consequences if the other attacks. But does Iran have nuclear weapons and could the country nuke the US?
The US withdrew from the nuclear deal on May 8 this year, but despite this Iran has remained committed to the deal and to the other agreements within it, according to the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), which inspects Iran's nuclear sites and issues quarterly reports on its compliance.

Iran does not yet have a fully equipped nuclear bomb, but with the stockpiled uranium the country is heading in the direction of building a bomb.

As the country does not have nuclear weapons to hand, it is impossible for them to currently issue a full scale nuclear attack.

However, it is possible that Tehran could use its growing missile program to target American ships and troops in the area.
In reality, this is not just a Movie like "Wargames". If Trump doesn't believe that Iran could go with their threat, then he should think again. World War 3 would be just like the game "Global Thermal Nuclear War" except it would not be a "game".

This is very similar to Trump watching Air Force One and liking the movie so much and Harrison Ford's portrayal of the President.

Harrison Ford Tells Donald Trump "Air Force One Was Just A Movie"

Harrison Ford has responded drolly to his recent praise from Donald Trump.

The billionaire-turned-politician, who is campaigning to run as Republican candidate for President, recently revealed that Ford’s portrayal of a fictional P.O.T.U.S. in 1997 action film Air Force One is his favourite screen portrayal of a President.

“My favourite was Harrison Ford on the plane,” Trump told the New York Times. “I love Harrison Ford – and not just because he rents my properties. He stood up for America.”

Asked for his thoughts on Trump’s comments during an interview on an Australian morning show earlier this week, Ford replied: “It’s a movie, Donald. It was a movie.”

“It’s not like this in real life,” Ford added. “But how would you know?” Watch a clip from the interview below.
President Trump needs to stop thinking and believing that movies are the real thing. If he doesn't, he will find out soon enough that "Global Thermal Nuclear War" may be for real. Wake up President Trump! You're risking the lives of people from around the world if this turns into real "Wargames". It won't be just a movie anymore!!
 

Sparks

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General Wes Clark weighs in
 

BlueRidge

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Trump is speaking to the media:

“We took action last night to stop a war,” Trump added. “We did not take action to start a war.”
Good, make sure you stick to that.

OTOH, the Chairman on the Joint Chiefs, Army Gen. Mark A. Milley, says that an attack Soleiman was planning “might still happen.” And

I don't find that last part very reassuring.

ETA: Okay but this is good as long as it stays true. The Guardian reports,

Trump specifically said the US is not seeking “regime change” in Iran
 

BlueRidge

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Here is Tim Kaine's statement:
According to the Post, Sen. Kaine has filed a war powers resolution:

Tim Kaine (D-Va.), a member of the Senate Foreign Relations and Armed Services committees, introduced a war powers resolution to force a debate and vote in Congress to prevent further escalation of hostilities with Iran. Sen. Richard J. Durbin (D-Ill.) is an original co-sponsor of the legislation.

...War powers resolutions are privileged, meaning that the Senate will be forced to vote on the legislation. The resolution underscores that Congress has the sole power to declare war, as laid out in the Constitution. The resolution requires that any hostilities with Iran must be explicitly authorized by a declaration of war or specific authorization for use of military force, but does not prevent the United States from defending itself from imminent attack. The resolution will force a public debate and vote in Congress as intended by the framers of the Constitution to determine whether United States forces should be engaged in these hostilities.
 

ballettmaus

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Twitter thread from Rep. Slotkin who was a Shia militia analyst. https://twitter.com/RepSlotkin/status/1213127820395851776

It's no surprise but I still found this part particularly scary.
What always kept both Democratic and Republican presidents from targeting Soleimani himself was the simple question: Was the strike worth the likely retaliation, and the potential to pull us into protracted conflict?

The two administrations I worked for both determined that the ultimate ends didn’t justify the means.
https://twitter.com/RepSlotkin/status/1213127823583518721
 

Sparks

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Right. The US has known for at least 15 years where he was at all times.
Only Trump would do something so hasty (to divert from impeachment) without understanding the repercussions.
 

BlueRidge

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Twitter thread from Rep. Slotkin who was a Shia militia analyst. https://twitter.com/RepSlotkin/status/1213127820395851776

It's no surprise but I still found this part particularly scary.
https://twitter.com/RepSlotkin/status/1213127823583518721
I saw this early and I think it is important. We need a lot more information on Trump's decision making process er... well I would like to know if there was any real consideration of the consequences and how they would be dealt with.

For me, assassinating a military leader of a sovereign country in the capital of another country that is to some extent an ally, is wrong regardless of the consequences, though.

Meanwhile, in the deja vu category, apparently VP Pence put out a tweet that included linking Soleimani to 9/11.
 

Vash01

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Iran War: Does Iran Have Nuclear Weapons? Could It Nuke The US?





In reality, this is not just a Movie like "Wargames". If Trump doesn't believe that Iran could go with their threat, then he should think again. World War 3 would be just like the game "Global Thermal Nuclear War" except it would not be a "game".

This is very similar to Trump watching Air Force One and liking the movie so much and Harrison Ford's portrayal of the President.

Harrison Ford Tells Donald Trump "Air Force One Was Just A Movie"



President Trump needs to stop thinking and believing that movies are the real thing. If he doesn't, he will find out soon enough that "Global Thermal Nuclear War" may be for real. Wake up President Trump! You're risking the lives of people from around the world if this turns into real "Wargames". It won't be just a movie anymore!!
We have a deranged president who doesn’t know fact from fiction and he doesn’t care to find out. Extremely dangerous. He needs to be removed from the office ASAP.
 
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ballettmaus

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Israel was notified in advance of the attack. Considering the tensions between Israel and Iran, I have no issue with that. The issue that I have is that foreign nations knew about it when congressional leadership did not. If there really was evidence of an imminent attack, why not inform congressional leadership?
 

Vash01

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Israel was notified in advance of the attack. Considering the tensions between Israel and Iran, I have no issue with that. The issue that I have is that foreign nations knew about it when congressional leadership did not. If there really was evidence of an imminent attack, why not inform congressional leadership?
Trump hates Congress. They are like his enemies. He does everything possible to defy them even though it means putting the country at risk.
 

skatingguy

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Meanwhile, in the deja vu category, apparently VP Pence put out a tweet that included linking Soleimani to 9/11.
Linking 9/11 to Iraq was a useful strategy to create public support in the early stages of that war, and a significant number of people still believe there was Iraqi involvement, so why not try that strategy again to build support for the war against Iran.
 

agalisgv

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Israel was notified in advance of the attack. Considering the tensions between Israel and Iran, I have no issue with that. The issue that I have is that foreign nations knew about it when congressional leadership did not. If there really was evidence of an imminent attack, why not inform congressional leadership?
Because certain members of Congress are notorious for leaking?
The US has known for at least 15 years where he was at all times. Only Trump would do something so hasty (to divert from impeachment) without understanding the repercussions.
Do people really not know why Soleimani was targeted? He was masterminding a series of imminent international attacks targeting US personnel. Casualties of just US citizens were estimated to be from dozens to hundreds. The non-US civilian death tolls were estimated to be at least that much as well.

As I mentioned in the other thread, there has been a very clear strategy implemented with Iran for three years now. Iran has been steadily ratcheting up the escalation for over a year until they killed a US contractor and wounded 4 US soldiers last week. At some point decisive action has to be taken before Iranian-sponsored terrorist attacks spread like wild fire.

And keep in mind that the catalyst for Iranian aggression was the sanctions package passed by Congress two years ago that every Dem presidential candidate voted for.
 

Andora

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Because certain members of Congress are notorious for leaking?
Do people really not know why Soleimani was targeted? He was masterminding a series of imminent international attacks targeting US personnel. Casualties of just US citizens were estimated to be from dozens to hundreds. The non-US civilian death tolls were estimated to be at least that much as well.

As I mentioned in the other thread, there has been a very clear strategy implemented with Iran for three years now. Iran has been steadily ratcheting up the escalation for over a year until they killed a US contractor and wounded 4 US soldiers last week. At some point decisive action has to be taken before Iranian-sponsored terrorist attacks spread like wild fire.

And keep in mind that the catalyst for Iranian aggression was the sanctions package passed by Congress two years ago that every Dem presidential candidate voted for.
So the attack was a good idea? And the Trump administration can be trusted to manage this situation gracefully enough to avoid further trouble? I haven't seen much defense of Soleimani, but seems like it should have been a more covert operation that whatever 2040's version Wikileaks uncovers US involvement.

What's your aim here, Ag?
 

agalisgv

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My apologies for the partisan link, but it has more details than I can find elsewhere.

Apparently there was another targeted hit of Iranian militia in Iraq just a few hours ago. They’re not able to tell who was killed because of damage to the bodies, but at least one is supposed to be a high value target. Iran claiming they were just medics. Also two high ranking militia leaders have been arrested in Iraq.
 

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