The "who has a chance to qualify for the GPF and how" thread.

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toddlj

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Not sure why no one has started a thread like this, so I will! As we're watching SA, we'll be looking to see who qualifies for the GPF. Starting with ladies, here are the standings.

1 Evgenia MEDVEDEVA RUS 15+15=30 (455.60)
2 Alina ZAGITOVA RUS 15+15=30 (427.68)
3 Kaetlyn OSMOND CAN 15+11=26 (419.68)
4 Carolina KOSTNER ITA 13+13=26 (428.22)
5 Maria SOTSKOVA RUS 13+13=26 (401.30)

6 Wakaba HIGUCHI JPN 11+13=24 (419.69)

Possible qualifiers:
Polina TSURSKAYA RUS 11 (210.19) can bump HIGUCHI with a gold, or with silver if her score is 209.51 or higher.
Ashley WAGNER USA 11 (183.94) can bump HIGUCHI with a gold, or with silver if her score is 235.76 or higher.

It's impossible for SOTSKOVA to be bumped, since both WAGNER and TSURSKAYA would need to beat her to do so, and they can't both win.
 
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toddlj

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Men's field is wide open. In theory, four men skating at SA could qualify, if they land in the correct order.

1 Shoma UNO JPN 15+13=28 (574.42)
2 Mikhail KOLYADA RUS 11+15=26 (550.44)

3 Jason BROWN USA 13+9=22 (507.09)
4 Javier FERNANDEZ ESP 5+15=20 (536.77)
5 Misha GE UZB 9+11=20 (513.67)
6 Alexander SAMARIN RUS 11+9=20 (503.19)

Possible qualifiers:
Nathan CHEN USA 15 (293.79) can qualify with a placement as low as 6th (!) and a 4th place finish would ensure a spot
Sergei VORONOV RUS 15 (271.12) can qualify with a placement as low as 6th (!) and a 4th place finish would ensure a spot
Boyang JIN CHN 13 (264.48) can qualify with a placement as low as 5th, but will have to get past one of the two above to do so. A podium finish would ensure a spot.
Adam RIPPON USA 13 (261.99) can qualify with a placement as low as 5th, but will have to get past two of the three above to do so. A podium finish would ensure a spot.
Han YAN CHN 7 (254.61) can qualify with a gold (unless all four of the guys above place well enough to qualify) or silver (unless two of the guys above place well enough to qualify)
Jorik HENDRICKX BEL 7 (237.31) can qualify with a gold (unless four of the guys above place well enough to qualify) or silver (unless two of the guys above place well enough to qualify)

Note: Only UNO and KOLYADA can rest easily this weekend.
 
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toddlj

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1 Gabriella PAPADAKIS / Guillaume CIZERON FRA 15+15=30 (402.41)
2 Tessa VIRTUE / Scott MOIR CAN 15+15=30 (398.50)
3 Madison CHOCK / Evan BATES USA 13+13=26 (366.35)

4 Madison HUBBELL / Zachary DONOHUE USA 11+13=24 (377.78)
5 Ekaterina BOBROVA / Dmitri SOLOVIEV RUS 13+11=24 (367.58)
6 Kaitlyn WEAVER / Andrew POJE CAN 13+9=22 (366.98)

8 Maia SHIBUTANI / Alex SHIBUTANI USA 15 (189.24) will qualify with a placement of 4th or above.
(considering the extreme likelihood of it, the assessments below assume the SHIBUTANIS will qualify and therefore bump WEAVER/POJE.)

10 Anna CAPPELLINI / Luca LANOTTE ITA 11 (186.56) will qualify (and bump BOBROVA/SOLOVIEV) with a gold, or with a silver and a score of 181.03 or above.

11 Victoria SINITSINA / Nikita KATSALAPOV RUS 9 (177.15) can only qualify with a gold
12 Piper GILLES / Paul POIRIER CAN 9 (172.29) can only qualify with a gold
13 Kaitlin HAWAYEK / Jean-Luc BAKER USA 9 (165.20) can only qualify with a gold
14 Tiffani ZAGORSKI / Jonathan GUERREIRO RUS 9 (164.41) can only qualify with a gold

Note: HUBBELL/DONOHUE can only be bumped in a scenario where one of the teams with 9 points wins gold, and CAPPELLINI/LANOTTE win silver with 191.23 points. This seems highly unlikely, but hey, strange things happen sometimes.
 
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toddlj

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Pairs:
1 Wenjing SUI / Cong HAN CHN 15+15=30 (465.60)
2 Evgenia TARASOVA / Vladimir MOROZOV RUS 15+15=30 (442.45)
3 Ksenia STOLBOVA / Fedor KLIMOV RUS 13+13=26 (427.17)

4 Vanessa JAMES / Morgan CIPRES FRA 11+13=24 (428.69)
5 Kristina ASTAKHOVA / Alexei ROGONOV RUS 11+11=22 (402.75)
6 Nicole DELLA MONICA / Matteo GUARISE ITA 9+11=20 (387.84)

9 Meagan DUHAMEL / Eric RADFORD CAN 15 (222.22) can in theory qualify with a position as low as 6th, and would be guaranteed a spot with a podium finish.
12 Aljona SAVCHENKO / Bruno MASSOT GER 13 (215.66) can in theory qualify with a position as low as 5th, and would be guaranteed a spot with gold or silver, or with a bronze if they either beat YU/ZHANG and MOORE-TOWERS/MARINARO, or score 213.04 or more to pass JAMES/CIPRES.
13 Xiaoyu YU / Hao ZHANG CHN 13 (205.54) can in theory qualify with a position as low as 5th, and would be guaranteed a spot with gold or silver, or with a bronze if they either beat SAVCHENKO/MASSOT and MOORE-TOWERS/MARINARO or score 223.16 or more.
14 Kirsten MOORE-TOWERS / Michael MARINARO CAN 11 (194.52) can in theory qualify with a position as low as 4th and a score of 193.33, but only if no one on this list above them qualifies. Only a gold, or a silver with score of 234.18, would guarantee them a spot.
16 Natalia ZABIIAKO / Alexander ENBERT RUS 9 (192.70) can qualify only with a gold.
17 Alexa SCIMECA KNIERIM / Chris KNIERIM USA 7 (192.51) can qualify with a gold, but even then, only if 3 of the teams above do not qualify first.
 
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Vash01

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Pairs:
1 Wenjing SUI / Cong HAN CHN 15+15=30 (465.60)
2 Evgenia TARASOVA / Vladimir MOROZOV RUS 15+15=30 (442.45)
3 Ksenia STOLBOVA / Fedor KLIMOV RUS 13+13=26 (427.17)

4 Vanessa JAMES / Morgan CIPRES FRA 11+13=24 (428.69)
5 Kristina ASTAKHOVA / Alexei ROGONOV RUS 11+11=22 (402.75)
6 Nicole DELLA MONICA / Matteo GUARISE ITA 9+11=20 (387.84)

9 Meagan DUHAMEL / Eric RADFORD CAN 15 (222.22) can in theory qualify with a position as low as 6th, and would be guaranteed a spot with 4th place or higher.
12 Aljona SAVCHENKO / Bruno MASSOT GER 13 (215.66) can in theory qualify with a position as low as 5th, and would be guaranteed a spot with gold or silver, or with a bronze if they either beat YU/ZHANG, or score 213.04 or more to pass JAMES/CIPRES.
13 Xiaoyu YU / Hao ZHANG CHN 13 (205.54) can in theory qualify with a position as low as 5th, and would be guaranteed a spot with gold or silver, or with a bronze if they either beat SAVCHENKO/MASSOT or score 223.16 or more.
14 Kirsten MOORE-TOWERS / Michael MARINARO CAN 11 (194.52) can in theory qualify with a position as low as 4th and a score of 193.33, but only if no one on this list above them qualifies. Only a gold, or a silver with score of 234.18, would guarantee them a spot.
16 Natalia ZABIIAKO / Alexander ENBERT RUS 9 (192.70) can qualify only with a gold.
17 Alexa SCIMECA KNIERIM / Chris KNIERIM USA 7 (192.51) can qualify with a gold, but even then, only if 3 of the teams above do not qualify first.
Thank you for this.

Basically D&R, S&M and Y&Z will replace the current 4,5,6 but move up considerably, with the last spot going to Stolbova - Klimov or whoever wins the bronze at SA. I expect S&M and D&R to finish 1-2 in any order.

Is that correct?
 
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toddlj

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Thank you for this.

Basically D&R, S&M and Y&Z will replace the current 4,5,6 but move up considerably, with the last spot going to Stolbova - Klimov or whoever wins the bronze at SA. I expect S&M and D&R to finish 1-2 in any order.

Is that correct?
I went through a bunch of scenarios and am having trouble finding one where Stolbova/Klimov don't qualify.
Even if all of D/H, S/M and Y/Z qualify, S/K would still be the 6th qualifier. If anyone can think of a scenario where S/K don't qualify, let me know!
 
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levineismine

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I went through a bunch of scenarios and am having trouble finding one where Stolbova/Klimov don't qualify.
Even if all of D/H, S/M and Y/Z qualify, S/K would still be the 6th qualifier. If anyone can think of a scenario where S/K don't qualify, let me know!
I think media outlets were tweeting that they had qualified for their GPF after their second GP, so that should be sure.

The most likely scenario is that S/M and D/R qualify, and then will be depending on what Y/Z do either them or J/C.
 

Vash01

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I went through a bunch of scenarios and am having trouble finding one where Stolbova/Klimov don't qualify.
Even if all of D/H, S/M and Y/Z qualify, S/K would still be the 6th qualifier. If anyone can think of a scenario where S/K don't qualify, let me know!
I am relieved that S&K will make the GPF. Keeping my fingers crossed that they will be healthy enough to compete well.
 

FSfan107

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Bummed that Wakaba could very well be bumped, not that I dislike any Polina or Ashley. Wakaba has just been so strong it doesn't seem fair where she is in the standings, but she was at the stronger events.
 

umronnie

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Thansk for the analysis.

If either Chen or Miahara win, this could leave Higuchi in, as she had very strong scores and it is unlikely Wagner or Tsurskaya could beat her total, right?

If Pairs go S/M and D/R 1-2 in either order, and Y/Z 3rd, then Y/Z still have to beat J/C's very strong total score to bump them off, right?
 

Domshabfan

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Thansk for the analysis.

If either Chen or Miahara win, this could leave Higuchi in, as she had very strong scores and it is unlikely Wagner or Tsurskaya could beat her total, right?

If Pairs go S/M and D/R 1-2 in either order, and Y/Z 3rd, then Y/Z still have to beat J/C's very strong total score to bump them off, right?
Wagner yes, but Tsurskaya can beat her with 209.51 point, she scored a 210 to come third at the the GP of JPN
 
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toddlj

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Thansk for the analysis.

If either Chen or Miahara win, this could leave Higuchi in, as she had very strong scores and it is unlikely Wagner or Tsurskaya could beat her total, right?

If Pairs go S/M and D/R 1-2 in either order, and Y/Z 3rd, then Y/Z still have to beat J/C's very strong total score to bump them off, right?
Yeah, Y/Z would need to score 223.16+ in that scenario, which seems unlikely since it's quite a bit above their SB.

OR, if Y/Z finish 2nd and S/M 3rd, then S/M only need 213.04+, much more likely since it is similar to their previous score.
 
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Vash01

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Bummed that Wakaba could very well be bumped, not that I dislike any Polina or Ashley. Wakaba has just been so strong it doesn't seem fair where she is in the standings, but she was at the stronger events.
That's the weakness of the entire GP system. If a skater is in a stronger event, it is tougher to make the GPF. I think the skaters understand it and they work harder to do better at worlds.
 

Carolla5501

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You know this is going to sound bad, but.....
GPF - Nagoya
4CC Taipei
Olympics PyeongChang

For the US and Canada skaters that's potentially three trips over a LOT of time zones in a fairly short period of time. There might be some advantage to not making the GPF.

It's a trek from either the US or Russia to the GPF and the Olympics. Not having to make the first trek might not be a bad thing!
 

rfisher

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The US Olympic team won't go to 4CC. They hardly ever do in an Olympic year. They'd just have to stay in Asia training and that would be way too expensive. That assignment is doled out as the consolation prize for not making the Olympic team.
 

Carolla5501

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The US Olympic team won't go to 4CC. They hardly ever do in an Olympic year. They'd just have to stay in Asia training and that would be way too expensive. That assignment is doled out as the consolation prize for not making the Olympic team.
Even if you don't do 4CC that's still two trips to Asia in 60 days, plus some of the skaters had CoC or NHK. Lots of jet lag issues! It's been pointed out already that Ashley has issues with it.... I doubt she's alone.
 

Aceon6

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Even if you don't do 4CC that's still two trips to Asia in 60 days, plus some of the skaters had CoC or NHK. Lots of jet lag issues! It's been pointed out already that Ashley has issues with it.... I doubt she's alone.
I would think that an athlete as experienced as Ashley would start living on PST now then Korea time the day after Nats.
 

Carolla5501

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Welll she lives on PST all the time. She's in California.

But it's not as easy as saying "I am now on Korea time" The rest of her life doesn't work that way LOL! So she needs her skates sharpened, her hair cut etc... those people aren't all going to shift their schedule to Korea time to assist her :) Raf might not be thrilled to discover that she expects him to coach her in the middle of the night!
 

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