The Race for the 2020 POTUS elections

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DORISPULASKI

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No, I find the same in my own little Greater Detroit Michigan and Buffalo focus groups.

I can see more and more Biden might be able to soften the blow for former Trump supporters to vote blue after all. Which might be great short-term, but does it do enough to keep the country from skidding right back?
While my acquaintances who are for Biden cannot be described as excited by him, they are comforted by him. They believe that even if his belief that we can all work together as one country is naive, if we do not at least try, the hatred and division will never be fixed. They are not looking for excitement; Trump has furnished far too much of it.

At least one friend, who was strongly for Warren is now leaning Biden because of his experience with foreign leaders. She believes we need someone with those credentials to fix the mess Trump has made of our foreign policy.

My middle of the road son would love to be able to vote for Bill Weld in NH primary. He thinks every Democrat in NH should do that, as it would put a spoke in Trump's reelection more than anything else. He won't vote for either Trump or Warren, but would vote for Biden .

My VT/CT son is a Bernie supporter, but would vote blue no matter who. Both boys' spouses are Democrats who have not shared who they plan to vote for in the primary

As to Mayor Pete's letters from 30 years ago:

"Dear Santa, For Christmas, I would like a new puppy, and copies of Advise and Consent, The Prince, and The Rise and Fall of the Third Reich.
 
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BlueRidge

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I think the sudden focus on foreign policy benefits Biden. He has deep experience to bring. While he made a very serious error in voting for the 2003 Iraq war, it is also worth remembering that he opposed Obama's surge in Afghanistan and Obama's intervention in Libya, two of Obama's worst decisions. Nonetheless, I would prefer someone with an international outlook that was less interventionist and which posited less reliance on US military presence around the world.

However, there just isn't a good candidate on this score.

Warren in my mind has the right orientation but simply isn't focused enough on foreign policy (outside of financial and economic policy) to have created a fully encompassing view. However, I think that Warren would largely rely on Obama administration talent to staff her administration and that is good enough, if not entirely satisfactory.

As for Sanders, he seems to me to rely on a far left analysis of long standing that in a knee-jerk fashion sees the US as always the problem and downplays the dangers of the rest of the world. I spent years in the peace movement and I wouldn't want to see most of the people who think in that simplistic way anywhere near the White House.

And I think the current situation shows that we cannot afford someone with as little experience as Buttigieg. Yes he's smart and able to listen to others but it simply isn't enough. You can try to compare him to Obama, but Obama was a constitutional lawyer who had deeply studied government processes.

I don't know enough about Klobuchar's views, but I think she is capable.

So to me it comes down to Warren but I can see why others would look to Biden.
 

el henry

#WeAllWeGot #WeAllWeNeed
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I just saw a post on Facebook that showed ONLY Bernie is opposed to Trump's military budget.

And early I saw a quote from a Bernie organizer in Iowa in the Post who said that Buttigieg and Warren are competing for the Wine Cave, limousine liberal vote.

Ain't just Biden they will try to destroy.
Yes. I have no idea why Liz supporters or Liz herself hold off from attacking Bernie. They will get far more votes peeling off some of the Bernie Bros, if they can in fact be peeled off, then they will trying to frame a narrative for Uncle Joe or Mayor Pete.

It’s not as though those leaning to Mayor Pete don’t know about the wine cave, they simply do not attach the importance or interpretation to it that the “corporate tool” narrative promotes. It’s not as though those who are leaning towards Joe Biden don’t know that he’s older, or don’t know that he’s prone to gaffes, they simply don’t see it as representative of some “stuck in the past” narrative that must be rejected at all costs.

I’m not comfortable with true believers. From my little tiny personal sample, which means nothing, half of the Bernie Bros are true believers. They will not vote for another candidate. And I ain’t got time for that.:blah:
 

Peaches LaTour

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The holidays gave me a chance to (lightly) touch politics with my swing state family.

The first surprise is that my 90-year-old, swing state, Trump supporting, Fox News watching grandfather, who has voted consistently Republican for decades, would vote for Biden. :eek:

He likes Sanders, but thinks there’s not enough money in the world to pay for his ideas and won’t vote for him.

Without prompting, he said he will not vote for any candidate who supports reparations, free healthcare, or illegal immigrants. He had some choice words about Elizabeth Warren in particular.

My Union Democrat, politically disillusioned, swing state father - who works at the polls, votes in every elecption, and left the presidency ballot blank in the last Democratic primary because he couldn’t stand Clinton or Sanders - is also pro Biden. He said many people like “that Pete Butti-something” and wants to know more about him. He thinks Elizabeth Warren is “ridiculous,” especially about breaking up big tech, and won’t be the nominee. Same for Bernie Sanders. But he hates Trump so much that he’d probably vote for anyone.

There’s my two person swing state focus group. It was interesting to me that two people who haven’t voted the same way in their entire lives are coalescing around Biden.
Loved your post!

My mother's family are WASP decendant & stubbornly pro-GOP.

My father's family is Irish-Catholic descendants & vehemently pro-Dem.

All of them live in Michigan.

Sadly, I don't think Mother's family will budge an inch, even though they really don't like Trump, per se.
 
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BlueRidge

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Julian Castro endorses Elizabeth Warren for President:

cool

adding a quote:

“Theres one candidate I see who’s unafraid to fight like hell to make sure America’s promise will be there for everyone,” Castro said in a new video. “Who will make sure that no matter where you live in America or where your family came from in the world, you have a path to opportunity too. That’s why I’m proud to endorse Elizabeth Warren for president.”
 
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VGThuy

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A Warren/Castro ticket was my dream since the first debate. I’m personally thinking about voting for Bernie in the primary though.
 

Andora

Skating season ends as baseball season begins
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Interesting.

IF she got the nomination, I wonder if the DNC would have the balls to give the nod to a VP running mate who was also a minority if she should select Castro.

Frankly, I don't think she will get the nomination, at all.
It would be a great ticket. I'm overly optimistic that Castro endorsing Warren is super-promising for her polls. As much as I'm prepping for Biden, I haven't given up hope that she has more up her sleeve.
 

BlueRidge

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public service announcment... I pulled this from a post about scams at Daily Kos, thought it was worth reminding ourselves of as we head into the most heated part of the primary process:

  1. Do not blindly join social media groups supporting one candidate over another. This is how Russia was able to interfere in our election in 2016. Verify the validity of the groups.
  2. Do not blindly share memes or tweets on social media without verifying that they are factual, and not just something that aligns with your personal bias. Trump is a horrible shitty guy—most of his sycophants are horrible shitty people. We do not need to make stuff up about them. Be careful sharing memes about Democratic candidates: Verify that they are accurate prior to sharing. Again, this is how Russia was able to interfere in the 2016 election. If a meme seems too good to be true, if it confirms your bias, verify that it is true before you share it on social media.
 

Louis

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I selfishly love that Warren and Sanders are both in the race because they're eating away at each other's support and helping someone more moderate to get the nomination :shuffle:

I'm curious about those who support Sanders over Warren. To me they're both wacky, but Warren's wack is supported by very detailed plans with more nuance. Plus, she didn't just have a heart attack and generally presents better. God knows I can't stand her, but I am surprised that people prefer Sanders to her. She seems like a higher-end version of the same product.

AOC's :rolleyes: attack on Biden, that in any other country they'd be in different parties, is just begging people to vote for Trump or vote third party if / when an independent like Bloomberg runs. And if AOC and company keep up with their socialist agenda, I hope people do. Yes, the Democratic party's problem has been "too big of a tent" :rolleyes:. Because that makes any sense. The tea party of the left is AOC and friends.
 

BlueRidge

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If anyone is interested, here is Joe Biden's full speech today on the situation with Iran:
 

topaz

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Tweet thread of the latest Iowa & New Hampshire polls from CBS

Good gawd, Warren’s campaign is in a mess. She’s a distant FOURTH in Iowa and is third behind Biden by seven points? She should be challenging Sanders there. Isn’t a lot of the TV media there from Boston?
I selfishly love that Warren and Sanders are both in the race because they're eating away at each other's support and helping someone more moderate to get the nomination :shuffle:

I'm curious about those who support Sanders over Warren. To me they're both wacky, but Warren's wack is supported by very detailed plans with more nuance. Plus, she didn't just have a heart attack and generally presents better. God knows I can't stand her, but I am surprised that people prefer Sanders to her. She seems like a higher-end version of the same product.

AOC's :rolleyes: attack on Biden, that in any other country they'd be in different parties, is just begging people to vote for Trump or vote third party if / when an independent like Bloomberg runs. And if AOC and company keep up with their socialist agenda, I hope people do. Yes, the Democratic party's problem has been "too big of a tent" :rolleyes:. Because that makes any sense. The tea party of the left is AOC and friends.
Pollings has shown that even though Sanders and Warren are the more left-leaning progressives in the primary. They are not competing for the same voters. Sanders supporters are more working class and he has more supporters that are brown and black people. Sanders' top donations come from workers who are employed at Walmart, Amazon, and teachers.

Also, Sanders is a democratic socialist. Also, part of the reason the Democratic party is in the situation that it is now is because of the "moderate" wing of the party. Moderates have controlled the party's agenda, voice, and funding for decades. There is a reason that many working-class Americans do not feel the Democratic party represents them anymore, or better yet "fights" for them anymore.

Warren has lost support to Mayor Pete and Biden. All three are competing for the affluent or college educated white liberals. Centrist or moderate democratic primary voters are torn between Warren, Buttigieg and Biden. Sander is picking up support from working class voters from all racial backgrounds and youth support. Sanders is right to go after Biden, if he can peel off some of Biden's supporters, that's a win for him.

However, I don't for second believe the DNC and Democratic establishment would allow Sanders to win the nomination.

Also, the Tea Party comment seems to negate that AOC ran an underfunded campaign against the 4th most powerful Democratic in the House. Her donations were from her constituents.
 
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Louis

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Interesting - thanks @topaz. A lot more at play here than policy (which is usually the case).

I'm surprised to see Warren lumped in with Mayor Pete and Biden. If I rated their appeal on a 0-10 scale, my numbers would be 0, 10, and 5, so I'm surprised to see the same voters coalescing around them (but believe your research). It actually makes me slightly warm to Warren, if that's the case. Obama was a lot less liberal than I thought he would be from his campaign, and it's possible the same could be true of Warren if moderate voters are seeing her in this way.

However, I don't for second believe the DNC and Democratic establishment would allow Sanders to win the nomination.
Given the shadow that hangs over 2016, any appearance of impropriety would be the kiss of death for Democrats, not just in this election but generally.

That said, I'd support a party rule that the person running for President has to have been a member of that party for five or even 10 years. I think it's fair to critique Sanders for being a Democrat only when it benefits him.
 

Peaches LaTour

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ITA with your comment, Louis, that a presidential candidate must be required to belong to the party they run under for a minimal number of years prior to the race. Sanders is a coward in that self-serving respect. Just one more reason why I dislike him so much.

I also wish there was an age limitation to run for POTUS. Nobody over 65 at the time they file.

And I would like to see a ruling prohibiting elected officials from switching parties while still in offfice.
 

el henry

#WeAllWeGot #WeAllWeNeed
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ITA with your comment, Louis, that a presidential candidate must be required to belong to the party they run under for a minimal number of years prior to the race. Sanders is a coward in that self-serving respect. Just one more reason why I dislike him so much.

I also wish there was an age limitation to run for POTUS. Nobody over 65 at the time they file.

And I would like to see a ruling prohibiting elected officials from switching parties while still in offfice.
I had not thought of these ideas, but I agree with them. Pennsylvania has a closed primary and I agree with it. I don't think persons who can't even bring themselves to identify with a party should choose that party's candidate.

And I agree that if Bernie represents such a wonderful independent breath of fresh air, then he should run as an independent.

It did present an issue for one of my Bernie Bro acquaintances last election, as he could never bring himself to register as a member of one of the two major Eville Corporate-Driven Worker-Hating Parties that are just part of the Eville Corporate-Driven Worker-Hating System. But with a closed primary he either had to register as a Democrat or not vote.

I actually don't know what he did.🤷‍♀️
 
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MsZem

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Here's some data about people's second choices among the Democratic candidates, which offers some indication of who's competing for the same voters:

It's a month old but I haven't seen a more recent article on the subject.
 

jeffisjeff

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Here's some data about people's second choices among the Democratic candidates, which offers some indication of who's competing for the same voters:
Thanks, that is interesting. The bottom line appears to be "So for all the talk of “lanes” in the 2020 Democratic primary, the lines still remain somewhat blurry." In other words, don't give too much credibility to pollsters (or posters :shuffle:) who try to tell you what the voters are thinking!
 

ballettmaus

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Yes, that is exactly what I mean. What good is the Republican/Democratic party system doing us?
I agree. At the same time, I think we're seeing with the Supreme Court that independence has become an illusion.

I think abolishing the electoral college gives the system the best chance of turning into a multi-party system. (And, of course, that's not going to happen because Republicans know that they wouldn't be able to win the Presidency anymore without it and heaven forbid, they start rethinking what they stand for and attract voters that way).
 

KCC

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I agreed to send out 500 postcards to people who have been purged off of voter registration lists, alerting them that they are no longer registered to vote and the steps to take if they do want to vote again. When I agreed to this, I failed to think through is that postage costs 35 cents per card, plus paper and printing. I used cardstock that I had on hand (that meets the post office standards) and printed & cut (4 per page) this batch at home in order to keep my costs down, but I have a friend that agreed to send 1000 postcards and her costs are getting quite high.

Evidently, this does work, and that about 30% of those sent cards do re-register to vote. It just makes me angry that so many people who are still eligible to vote are being purged from voter registration lists.
 

VGThuy

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Yes, that is exactly what I mean. What good is the Republican/Democratic party system doing us?
Let's not forget that political parties are just a natural occurrence where separate smaller groups made up of separate individuals realized in order to have broad nation-wise appeal, they had to join a larger coalition with an easy, marketable message in order help gain followers and loyal voters to vote for them and to easier get their platforms passed through the government. We have a system that really only has room for two large oppositional parties for a myriad of reasons rather than a multiparty one. Usually, in history, when we have such a polarized climate, there was a third party to come out to offer an alternative (usually when there is one single polarizing issue overwhelmingly overtakes the nation and that third party can be seen a single-issue party or at least is inflexible about that one major issue rather than be wishy-washy about it or only sides with one side like the two dominating parties have been thus not giving the other half true representation) but then what happens is that the third party becomes one of the major two and adopts tenants from one or both of the major two parties and one of the other ones become obsolete. I think that's harder now that the Dem and Republican Party has become such established franchises.
 

Peaches LaTour

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We received our first robo call the other night, "If the election were held tomorrow, would you vote to re-elect President Trump or would you vote for Joe Biden?"

There was no number on the v/m so we can't put a block on it.

How ironic it would be if Biden is not the nominee.
 
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