The Medical Thread: Vaccine Search / Staying Healthy / Treatments Etc

Dave of the North

Well-Known Member
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5,503
I have noticed that world wide figures for new infections have come down. The death rate is following. They are saying it is because of the vaccine.

I don't think the vaccine is having much effect except in Israel, UK maybe, US maybe. The infection rates in Canada are coming down as well, and hardly anyone has been vaccinated.

One of the early benefits of vaccinating health care workers is that they won't need to be self isolating if they are exposed to *********. One of the stresses in NB was that we might have 100 or 200 health care workers self isolating at any given time (I think mostly in relation to outbreaks at nursing homes).
 

acraven

Well-Known Member
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2,228
I'm not sure who is saying that but in the US the experts are explicitly saying vaccination has little to do with it [drop in number of new infections].

It reportedly takes about 2 weeks to begin to develop immunity after the first vaccination. Two weeks ago only about 8% of the US population had received at least one vaccination. We should probably look back five additional days (when about 6.6% had been vaccinated) since it takes an average of 5 days for people to become ill after exposure. The vaccination program certainly is helpful, but it's hard to see how it could be making a major difference in the overall infection rate at this point. I'm quite optimistic about what will happen over the next six weeks or so, but we'll have to deal with the countervailing effects of challenging mutations and spring break.
 
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Orm Irian

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1,028
I'm not sure who is saying that but in the US the experts are explicitly saying vaccination has little to do with it.
Yes, I'm seeing experts from many places attributing it to other causes overall as well - improved treatments, among other things, are apparently part of what's bringing the death rate down.

One place that is showing a definite impact from the vaccine is Israel, where they've vaccinated a large amount of their over-65 population and seen a massive drop in infection numbers and severe cases in that cohort (unfortunately, due in part to a big problem with lockdown noncompliance across multiple sectors of the community, they're also seeing increases in other age cohorts including children).

Numbers across Europe are overall declining, but Reuters Health is reporting that the Netherlands, which has a high proportion of variants including b117 among its case numbers, is starting to see an increase again, specifically one driven by increases in the numbers of those variants.
 

Aceon6

Isolating from mean people
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21,649
The website for finding a vaccination in Massachusetts is dead. The 65+ group as well as the two comorbidities group opens in 3 minutes. I doubt anyone will be successful this morning and I'm really feeling it for the IT people who are supporting the site. I've been there, not fun.
 
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Dave of the North

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5,503
NB revised their vaccine rollout plan. Depending on deliveries, healthy people under 70 seem to have to wait until July or later. Meanwhile they plan to do school staff and students aged 16-24 in June. :huh: (number of deaths in the 0-19 age group in Canada = 4; in the 20-29 group = 30. Number of deaths in the 60-69 group = 1586)

I'm sure this plan will get adjusted as time passes....
 

sk8pics

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7,932
I was on a FaceTime call with a friend today and he told me he got his appointment for his first shot. But again, it was only by luck. His wife read something on a neighborhood app about a clinic nearby giving out shots. He called, answered all the questions correctly, and is scheduled for tomorrow at 10 am. This was just a couple of days ago that he called. I am glad he is getting his shot (he’s 67 and has an artificial valve in his heart) but I am tired of people having to get their appointment so much by chance.
 

love skating

Clueless American
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2,614
Took my mom to get her first shot today. This was with her provider (Kaiser) so we knew the place and all so it was pretty easy (except the parking was horrible as they have a lot of parking levels in their garage roped off to do ********* testing so very few spaces). She got a cute "Vaccinated" button to pin on and so far she has not had any ill effects. And her second shot is already scheduled for her a little over three weeks from now (She got Pfizer). I'm so happy we got one done! My aunt and uncle are going to get their shots at the same place in a couple days despite not being Kaiser members (they were able to call and get appointments). We were a little worried cause the county mega sites were canceling appointments due the supplies not coming in because of the storms but I guess it didn't affect the supply here, thankfully!
 

Dave of the North

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Has anyone followed Youyang Gu? He uses AI to predict trends and has been very accurate. There was an article about his model in Bloomberg. Lots of good forecasts if you are a stats nerd like me.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...-ai-and-data-to-make-most-accurate-prediction

Some encouraging forecasts on variants and another possible wave. Not so encouraging if you are one of the "herd immunity" proponents.

Yes, it's interesting. However, even the ensemble model is not very accurate. I went to the C*-19 Forecast hub, and one of the links was to a CNN story (Jan 15) predicting 90,000 deaths in the next 21 days (using an ensemble forecast from CDC). The actual number was around 68,000.

I'm guessing none of the models were predicting the steep drop we've had almost everywhere since mid Jan.

Anybody seeing that big post Super Bowl surge yet?

ETA: There's a quote about models: "All models are wrong, but some are useful"
 
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skategal

Bunny mama
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7,229
All the models have different variables added into them and they don't always reflect what is happening on the ground in reality.

For example, I don't think any of the models can have an accurate variable to represent the "on and off and on again" impact on CV cases of Public Health Restrictions put in place by provincial/state/Federal governments.
 

Louis

Private citizen
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15,449
More good news, the UK has moved up the dates by which all adults will have been offered vaccination from end of September to 31 July. :cheer: :cheer2:

And it is expected that 40-49 year-olds will be group 10 - FINALLY a benefit to having turned 40 during this p*ndemic! The first nine groups (all over 50s and younger people with health conditions) are due to have been offered the vaccine by 15 April, so I could potentially get the first vaccination by May or even late April. This would be a good six months earlier than I had anticipated.
 

Buzz

Socialist Canada
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34,142
I think among developed countries Canada is doing the worst when it comes to vaccinations and I believe part of the problem is we don’t have the capacity to make CV vaccines here. That is set to change by summer. On a side note Cuba is working on it’s own version of the vaccine which could to be ready by April.

More on why companies said no to making CV vaccines here.
https://tinyurl.com/2vy5shs6
 
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Theatregirl1122

Needs a nap
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23,526
First data coming out of Israel on whether the vaccines prevent transmission. The messaging on that has gotten very messed up over these last months since it was really “it probably does, but we haven’t proved it so we can’t be sure” and somehow a ton of people have come away convinced it doesn’t. But thankfully the data is starting to be gathered and it looks good!

Preliminary results from Israel show the Pfizer vaccine prevents 89.4% of transmission.

 

jeffisjeff

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16,222
First data coming out of Israel on whether the vaccines prevent transmission. The messaging on that has gotten very messed up over these last months since it was really “it probably does, but we haven’t proved it so we can’t be sure” and somehow a ton of people have come away convinced it doesn’t. But thankfully the data is starting to be gathered and it looks good!
I think a ton of people had also started to assume that it does prevent transmission. I had to go to the optometrist the other day (so I could order new contacts since my prescription expired). I didn't want new glasses, but that did not stop the woman who works in the attached eye glass store from trying her hard sell. Of course, she walks right up to me, not even close to keeping 6 feet of distance. I told her politely that I preferred to keep 6 feet distance and she pointed to her harm and said she'd been vaccinated. I said that I'd still prefer to keep distance, but the thoughts running through my head went something like: "That may help you, which is probably all you care about, but do we know whether it helps me? Do I know what kind of shot you got and whether it prevents transmission? Do I know how many shots you've had and whether one is enough to prevent transmission? Why are people like you so stupid and selfish?"
 

Theatregirl1122

Needs a nap
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23,526
Certainly some people were assuming that the vaccine is magic and being vaccinated yourself means you no longer have to observe safety protocols, but I was referring to vaccine hesitancy. Many people are citing "it doesn't prevent transmission" as a reason not to get vaccinated. This has been a pretty well documented messaging problem.
 

once_upon

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17,880
I'm still seeing a lot of anti vaxxers, or Democrats/Bill Gates/George Sonos are trying to control you, or it's not real, and even some amazing now that Democrats won (or stole) numbers are going down, they won't get it. Of course, I live in Trump country.

I imagine hundreds/perhaps a couple of thousands got their vaccines yesterday at the vaccine site where I got my vaccine yesterday. But we intent to follow the mitigation protocols after 2nd dose.
 

MsZem

Well-Known Member
Messages
14,797
First data coming out of Israel on whether the vaccines prevent transmission. The messaging on that has gotten very messed up over these last months since it was really “it probably does, but we haven’t proved it so we can’t be sure” and somehow a ton of people have come away convinced it doesn’t. But thankfully the data is starting to be gathered and it looks good!

Preliminary results from Israel show the Pfizer vaccine prevents 89.4% of transmission.

I post updates re Israel's data as they come along in the news thread - it seems like a general interest type thing :)

Here they are here as well:
The Pfizer trial results replicate in the largest study of the Israeli vaccine drive.
Yay!!!

Note that B117 is widespread in Israel.

A second Israeli HMO has released findings replicating Pfizer's trial results :cheer2:
Replaced the original link, this one is a bit more detailed.

Some good vaccine-related news:

Israeli journalist Nadav Eyal posted a preprint of Pfizer/Israeli Ministry of Health findings. Following second dose:

Another day, another promising update on vaccine effectiveness:

A caveat from Nadav Eyal regarding the most recent Israeli Ministry of Health data.
 

sk8pics

Well-Known Member
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7,932
I think a ton of people had also started to assume that it does prevent transmission. I had to go to the optometrist the other day (so I could order new contacts since my prescription expired). I didn't want new glasses, but that did not stop the woman who works in the attached eye glass store from trying her hard sell. Of course, she walks right up to me, not even close to keeping 6 feet of distance.
I went by my church last night to pick up soup I’d ordered as part of a youth group fundraiser, and of course we had to go inside, which was fine. There was a little bit of clustering of people :rolleyes: but not too bad. But as I was turning to leave I saw two men in their 70’s standing together talking.:rolleyes::rolleyes: They were wearing their masks, but were standing about 1 foot apart from each other, maybe 2, and of course we were inside. This kind of thing infuriates me and it’s one reason I haven’t been to church since this all started. I know the overall message is, we’re being safe and all, but there’s always someone who is not following the guidelines. Same for the shelter I volunteer with. The clinics are okay because people are masked and it’s drive up and we’re mostly outside, but another volunteer was telling me about being inside the shelter and no one was masked. What part of this is a crisis do you not understand?:wall::wall:
 

Louis

Private citizen
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15,449
There's another form of vaccine hesitancy among people who say they're not going to get vaccinated unless it means they no longer have to mask, distance, etc. because otherwise what's the point. Shockingly, I have several friends / relatives in this camp - adamant that they will not get vaccinated unless vaccination results in clear and immediate easing of restrictions.

I've told my friends that they're being silly. Easing of restrictions is (or should be) tied to the percent of population vaccinated, so each "jab" contributes to the benefit they want, even if it's not immediate. Plus, selfishly, sooner or later, vaccination will be required for something that they want to do. Why go through the process of needing to get vaccinated in a hurry if they can get vaccinated now and be set? But if they really don't want to get the "jab," I'll happily take their spot.
 

Judy

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Messages
2,358
There's another form of vaccine hesitancy among people who say they're not going to get vaccinated unless it means they no longer have to mask, distance, etc. because otherwise what's the point. Shockingly, I have several friends / relatives in this camp - adamant that they will not get vaccinated unless vaccination results in clear and immediate easing of restrictions.

I've told my friends that they're being silly. Easing of restrictions is (or should be) tied to the percent of population vaccinated, so each "jab" contributes to the benefit they want, even if it's not immediate. Plus, selfishly, sooner or later, vaccination will be required for something that they want to do. Why go through the process of needing to get vaccinated in a hurry if they can get vaccinated now and be set? But if they really don't want to get the "jab," I'll happily take their spot.
Crazy. Just crazy.
 

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