The Medical Thread: Vaccine Search / Staying Healthy / Treatments Etc

Orm Irian

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Orm Irian

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Sorry to double-post, but I just came across this article in the Guardian: apparently t-cell responses in people who've had the lurgi last for at least six months, and are stronger in those who had symptoms during the initial infection.

While there's no word on the extent to which that might prevent re-infection (or for how long), it does seem to imply that the vaccine developers looking at stimulating t-cell responses are going in the right direction, which is good.
 
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snoopy

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CNBC reporting early studies show Pfizer vaccine 90% effective. It’s a two shot vaccine. Study included 44k people. Will need 2 more months for follow up. No certainty on how long immunity lasts yet.

Let’s hope it sticks.

Dow futures up 800 on news.
 

Orm Irian

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880
CNBC reporting early studies show Pfizer vaccine 90% effective. It’s a two shot vaccine. Study included 44k people. Will need 2 more months for follow up. No certainty on how long immunity lasts yet.

Let’s hope it sticks.

Dow futures up 800 on news.
I just saw that and was coming here to post it! :cheer2:There's a lot we don't know yet, of course, but those are some very encouraging signs.

Here's the brief article from the Guardian with the info known so far for anyone who wants to read more.
 

allezfred

#EpidemiologistsNotEconomists
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Great news, but Trump and his supporters are going to have a field day with this.
 

Orm Irian

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Great news, but Trump and his supporters are going to have a field day with this.
Fortunately, what the vulgar tangerine menace soon to be evicted from US public housing thinks will no longer have much impact on public policy in the rest of the world. I do feel sorry for US citizens who will having to bear the consequences of his destructive choices for longer than the rest of us, though. At least it's unlikely that Phase Three of this study will be finished before he's been booted by automatic operation of law, so even if that means waiting longer for a possible vaccine, he won't be able to interfere with it more directly.
 

flyingsit

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FYI, Pfizer is not part of Operation Warp Speed. Which means the US government has not given them $$ to pre-emptively scale up production. Their estimate is that if they get emergency use authorization before the end of November, they will have enough doses for 25 million people this year.
 

Miezekatze

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Germany also wants to look that the US doesn#t get ALL Pfizer doses first, especially considering it's a German vaccine :p

I doubt much is going to happen this year, but hopefully they can really speed up production and produce very fast next year.

I'm not even sure whether it's 25 million people this year or 25 doses this year? Because for it to be effective people need to get 2 shots. So if it's 25 million doses, it might only be 12,5 million people.

EDIT: just checked, yeah, BioNTechs prognosis is for doses, so you always have to divide it in half to get the amount of people.

In a German article about production: it says they can produce 100 million doses this year and 1,3 billion next year. Not sure about the 25 million, maybe that's already what is planned for the US only this year?

They have 3 production places in Germany that are ready and can already produce now, 1 new one in Germany will be added at the beginning of the upcoming year, that is supposed to be able to produce large numbers within one month, plus Pfizer will produce it in 3 places in the US and 1 in Belgium according to German articles.
 
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Hedwig

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But it surely sounds like good news
I know the wife of one of the guys working on it. She told me months ago that they are very confident that they will ask for permission in November. I never really believed her and thought it was wishful thinking :lol:

In the article it says that one of the scientists said that it was the best news they had since January 10th when the genom was published...
 

Lorac

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This is good news but needs to be tempered with some caution as there still needs to be more testing and the extremely low temperature it needs to be stored at could also prove problematic. However this is most definitely a step in the right direction and even though we are still in the tunnel but there is definitely a light at the end of this long dark journey we have all been on.

Biden gives a press conference and discussing how the vaccine will be distributed to all as and when it is available and what else he will be doing - including masks. What does the Orange one do? Throws out a full cap tweet the first sentence refers to the the rise in the stock market - nothing about how the vaccine will help the people - why am I no surprised :rolleyes:
 

attyfan

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MsZem

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FWIW, the vaccine was developed with the work of a husband and wife team -- both children of Turkish immigrants which (I believe) is an Islamic country -- if so, I believe the mango Mussolini still in the White House would not have allowed their families into the US:

Turkey is not part of Trump's travel ban, and he's chummy with Erdogan. Pfizer is a German company, and the researchers in question are based there. The vaccine was the result of the efforts of many people, and I have no doubt that not all of them were born in Germany. There are also many researchers and academics in the US who were not born in the US. Even Turkish ones.

How about we stay on topic, which is medical/vaccine news? There's no shortage of places to discuss how much Trump sucks.

More on the Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine, and some open questions:
 

million$momma

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Finally managed to get my kids a 'regular flu shot yesterday. Drs office has only been doing high risk and over 65. Health unit said go to Dr. The pharmacy had also been selectively vaccinating over 65 only because of limited supply. The pharmacy finally got a new shipment! I hate to think about how hard it will be to get a crud vaccine when available...
 

escaflowne9282

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FWIW, the vaccine was developed with the work of a husband and wife team -- both children of Turkish immigrants which (I believe) is an Islamic country -- if so, I believe the mango Mussolini still in the White House would not have allowed their families into the US:
Why did I just discover this nickname now that he has been voted out.:fragile:
 

MsZem

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Following up on previous posts here, the NYT also has a great story about the husband and wife team who founded BioNTech, the company that Pfizer partnered with on the new CoV19 vaccine. Favorite detail: after their wedding they went right back to the lab :lol:
 

Miezekatze

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Following up on previous posts here, the NYT also has a great story about the husband and wife team who founded BioNTech, the company that Pfizer partnered with on the new CoV19 vaccine. Favorite detail: after their wedding they went right back to the lab :lol:

He sort of reminds me of a Turkish Barack Obama looks-wise :D
 

Buzz

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Following up on previous posts here, the NYT also has a great story about the husband and wife team who founded BioNTech, the company that Pfizer partnered with on the new CoV19 vaccine. Favorite detail: after their wedding they went right back to the lab :lol:
Thanks for posting that!!! :cheer2:
 

acraven

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Dr. Fauci did an interview with Jake Tapper of CNN--I think yesterday--in which he talked about vaccine priorities and specifically about timing of vaccine availability for those not at special risk. He currently thinks those who want the vaccine will be able to get it by the end of April 2021. Earlier comments about a timeline extending into Quarter 2 / Quarter 3 took into account the people who may initially not want to be vaccinated. Dr. Fauci seems hopeful that the 90%+ efficacy rate of the Pfizer vaccine may get people to come around, but I don't know what percentage of the population he is expecting to fall in the I-want-it category and be vaccinated by the end of April.

Tapper didn't ask whether the end-of-April date was for the first or the second injection.

I couldn't tell how many different vaccines Dr. Fauci was expecting to have available. Articles about production of the Pfizer vaccine didn't suggest to me that enough of it could be available by April to vaccinate the entire country except the hold-outs, so I suspect Fauci is assuming there will be more than one vaccine approved.

Link to CNN.com video: https://tinyurl.com/y69yvs58
 

Impromptu

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Here's the latest Michael Osterholm podcast (there will eventually be a transcript apparently), where he talked about the current state of the disease (um, trigger warning... it's pretty dark, even the stuff about the vaccine).
 

NinjaTurtles

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People need to be wary about interpreting the '90%' statistic...articles did not sufficiently describe it at all. Based on my quick review of Pfizer's protocol a couple of weeks ago, I'm fairly certain that it's a Bayesian predictive probability statistic (i.e., 90% probability of success at the final analysis)...not that the vaccine is 90% effective like some journalists are interpreting. It's 90% probability of meeting the ~50% vaccine efficacy threshold to declare the vaccine a success. That's great news that the data is showing a lot of confidence in the trial being ultimately successful, but I think there is a narrative growing that 'Pfizer's vaccine will work 90% of the time' and other currently baseless claims.
 

MsZem

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People need to be wary about interpreting the '90%' statistic...articles did not sufficiently describe it at all. Based on my quick review of Pfizer's protocol a couple of weeks ago, I'm fairly certain that it's a Bayesian predictive probability statistic (i.e., 90% probability of success at the final analysis)...not that the vaccine is 90% effective like some journalists are interpreting. It's 90% probability of meeting the ~50% vaccine efficacy threshold to declare the vaccine a success. That's great news that the data is showing a lot of confidence in the trial being ultimately successful, but I think there is a narrative growing that 'Pfizer's vaccine will work 90% of the time' and other currently baseless claims.
I don't know much about vaccine trials, but Statnews says 90% effective, not 90% probability of hitting the efficacy threshold.

Likewise Scientific American:

Dr. Fauci seems to say the same?
 

acraven

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Yes, they're saying it seems to be at least 90% effective. But they don't know (per Dr. Fauci) whether it will reduce the incidence of severe disease by 90%.

Over 90 people in the trial (most of whom received the placebo, obviously) have gotten *********-19. An earlier article I read indicated that at least one company expected to report preliminary results with just a bit over 30 infections, so it sounds to me as if Pfizer has a lot of data.
 
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Miezekatze

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Something you read a few weeks ago, can't be what is meant with the "90% result" now, because a few weeks ago they did not have the results yet, that they are now reporting on. Those are brand new partial results from the phase III.

The effectivity result might change of course, because it were not the full results yet.
 

MacMadame

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I would also guess that it would be like birth control. That there is a theoretical effectiveness (i.e., if you get both shots and in the window they are supposed to be gotten, vaccine is handed properly,e tc) and a real-life effectiveness, which will be lower because humans make mistakes. But not drastically lower, I'm thinking.
 

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