The Biden-Harris Administration

[clairecloutier]

There was a long opinion piece in NYT yesterday from Ezra Klein about the future electoral outlook for the Democrats:

Opinion | David Shor Is Telling Democrats What They Don’t Want to Hear

His forecasting model shows a looming disaster for Senate Democrats. Are they going to do anything about it?

www.nytimes.com

The piece is centered around the opinions of progressive pollster David Shor. Shor feels that Democrats are in a bad position electorally and need to start talking about "popular" policies and stop talking about "defunding the police" or race issues generally, so as to better appeal to non-college-educated white voters.

Other Dem-leaning political columnists are now discussing the article. Jamelle Bouie of NYT wrote a piece about it in his weekly newsletter. He doesn't really disagree with Shor's conclusions but wants more specifics from him.

I will not get into any more details here. However, an important point from Shor (and other pollsters etc. agree) is that Democrats are in a very difficult position to win Senate seats in 2022 and going forward. Considering our failure in winning Senate seats in 2018 despite many seemingly gettable opportunities, I'm inclined to agree.

This is why I continue to focus on Manchin and Sinema and their current activities in the Senate. It's because, bad as they are, this Senate still represents our best or perhaps only hope for action. I know some people here have been critical of this focus and are just like "Forget them and move on to 2022." But, I'm not hopeful about positive results in 2022.

 

[Dobre]

Biden signs law to expand health care for 'Havana syndrome' victims​

Biden signs law to expand health care for 'Havana syndrome' victims

abcnews.go.com

 

[clairecloutier]

I wanted to share a couple of interesting links that Jamelle Bouie referred to in his newsletter.


The first piece is about exit polling of Latinos from the 2020 election and what this revealed about Latino priorities:

The Democrats’ Hispanic Voter Problem: More Evidence from the 2020 Pew Validated Voter Survey

It’s a Sobering Picture

theliberalpatriot.substack.com

The second piece, by a political scientist named Alan Abramowitz, is about the growing divide between college-educated and non-college-educated white voters in the U.S. and how this is influencing our politics (i.e., not in a good way for Dems):

Can Democrats Win Back the White Working Class? – Sabato's Crystal Ball

Abramowitz concludes (like others) that racism is at the root of white working-class identification with Republicanism.

 

[caseyedwards]

I wanted to share a couple of interesting links that Jamelle Bouie referred to in his newsletter.


The first piece is about exit polling of Latinos from the 2020 election and what this revealed about Latino priorities:

The Democrats’ Hispanic Voter Problem: More Evidence from the 2020 Pew Validated Voter Survey

It’s a Sobering Picture

theliberalpatriot.substack.com

The second piece, by a political scientist named Alan Abramowitz, is about the growing divide between college-educated and non-college-educated white voters in the U.S. and how this is influencing our politics (i.e., not in a good way for Dems):

Can Democrats Win Back the White Working Class? – Sabato's Crystal Ball

Abramowitz concludes (like others) that racism is at the root of white working-class identification with Republicanism.

But these are the people who voted for Obama! So how did these people vote for Obama and become racist? Or who exactly are they racist against? Latino people and not black people? Or maybe they aren’t racist at all. That the democrats even from Obama era have become too left for them.

Democrats have more white republican voters now then they did under McCain and Romney and Trump got more Latino and black votes then they did

How did Biden win Georgia? White republicans

 

[clairecloutier]

Lead stories today in WaPo:

Biden approval drops with key Democratic constituencies including African-Americans, women, and young voters

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/biden-falling-poll-numbers-georgia/2021/10/10/3606c99e-2002-11ec-8200-5e3fd4c49f5e_story.html

Interviews with nearly 20 advocates, activists and politicians in the crucial state of Georgia — which Biden won narrowly, in large part due to support from Black voters, after decades of Republican dominance — give a sense of the sentiments behind those numbers. At the center are Black and other minority voters who helped fuel Biden’s victory, but who now see what they consider unfulfilled promises and dwindling hope for meaningful change.

This article directly references possible problems with Dem turnout this year and next year.


Liberals in the House, increasingly representing the party's mainstream, less willing to negotiate with moderates

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/reconciliation-progressives-jayapal-manchin/2021/10/10/4dec3958-27e7-11ec-a6ad-9ee7deda7f34_story.html

One takeaway: There are now 96 members of the Congressional Progressive Caucus. There are only 19 members of the moderate/conservative-leaning Blue Dog Coalition. Who represents the mainstream now (if there is such a thing in American politics)??

 

[Vagabond]

There is no mainstream in American politics right now. We are too fragmented for that. But we are not alone. Just take a look at the results of the recent Federal election in Germany.

 

[clairecloutier]

Meanwhile, on the other side, Miles Taylor and Christine Todd Whitman released an editorial today in NYT calling on non-Trumpist Republicans to support some Democratic candidates in 2022. Their group will shortly publish a list of Democrats that they will endorse for 2022. Moderate Dems who were mentioned include Spanberger, Lamb, and Slotkin. They will also back democracy-supporting Republicans like Cheney, Kinzinger, and Meijer. Also independents like Evan McMullin. Basically, anyone opposed to Trumpism, regardless of party.

It is ironic to have former Republicans move toward us, even as the party arguably moves left.

 

[ballettmaus]

There is no mainstream in American politics right now. We are too fragmented for that. But we are not alone. Just take a look at the results of the recent Federal election in Germany.

And it's the same kind of politics, policies and mindset that's causing the fragmentation. It's frightening, however, I also find it a bit more unsettling that it's happening in Germany. In a way, I shouldn't be surprised because there will always be those who harbor the sentiments that led to WWII but what I find unsettling is the platform that those people have and that the MSM is making the same mistakes they're making here. I guess, too much time has passed since WWII, too many survivors have died already and mankind is just prone to forget and take things for granted. Doesn't make it any less scary and unsettling.

 

[caseyedwards]

Meanwhile, on the other side, Miles Taylor and Christine Todd Whitman released an editorial today in NYT calling on non-Trumpist Republicans to support some Democratic candidates in 2022. Their group will shortly publish a list of Democrats that they will endorse for 2022. Moderate Dems who were mentioned include Spanberger, Lamb, and Slotkin. They will also back democracy-supporting Republicans like Cheney, Kinzinger, and Meijer. Also independents like Evan McMullin. Basically, anyone opposed to Trumpism, regardless of party.

It is ironic to have former Republicans move toward us, even as the party arguably moves left.

They chose not to have any real challenger to Trump in 2020 Republican primary and now demand all republicans vote for democrats? Something is off here. Why if they oppose Trump didn’t they seek to defeat Trump himself? Why are they targeting people who just said they would rather not vote for Biden pelosi or schumer. There is no way to vote for Lamb without voting for Bernie sanders or chuck Schumer. No way to vote for slotkin without voting for pelosi or AOC. You don’t hurt Trump by voting against people who aren’t Trump and leave trump alone. So there is something weird going on here. That they leave trump alone but seek the defeat of someone like Young Kim or Maria salazar

 

[Louis]

I admire Whitman's tireless advocacy for centrism, even though it has never worked and will probably never work. She has a decent record of being economically conservative / low tax and relatively liberal / libertarian on social issues. I don't think her arguments will work, and they don't work with me (anyone who wants to stop the Biden agenda needs to vote Republican, period), but I'm glad she's making them and attacking Trumpism.

 

[clairecloutier]

If you vote Republican at this point, you are voting for Trumpism. So if “stopping the Biden agenda” is your priority, that’s fine, but you are effectively voting for Trumpism. (and in 2024, most likely for Trump himself.)

 

[Louis]

If you vote Republican at this point, you are voting for Trumpism. So if “stopping the Biden agenda” is your priority, that’s fine, but you are effectively voting for Trumpism. (and in 2024, most likely for Trump himself.)

Nah, if you vote Republican at this point, you're voting for divided government, which is the best outcome if you're not onboard with either Trumpism or Biden. The enemy of my enemy is my friend.

2024 is a different story and a long time away, as voters will be determining all three branches of government. Your argument may well be right then.

 

[clairecloutier]

Nah, if you vote Republican at this point, you're voting for divided government, which is the best outcome if you're not onboard with either Trumpism or Biden. The enemy of my enemy is my friend.

2024 is a different story and a long time away, as voters will be determining all three branches of government. Your argument may well be right then.

Naturally, I disagree ... A majority of active Republican politicians support Trump and his stance that the 2020 election was stolen. Also, they oppose the investigation of, and consequences for, the Jan. 6 attack and Trump's coup attempt. If the Republicans regain majorities in the House and Senate, then at the least, they'll try to block remaining investigation/consequences of the Jan 6 insurrection, as well as of Trump himself, through any means possible. Further, they'll be in position to overturn the 2024 election if it doesn't go Trump's way.

 

[BlueRidge]

Unless Charlie Baker and Larry Hogan suddenly start being recognized as the leaders of the Republican Party, voting for Republicans is voting for a far right party. The GOP's alliance with Europe's Far Right Deepens (Washington Post)

But I doubt most people who aren't already voting for Dems will see it that way.

I doubt it will take much more than rising fuel prices to turn the next election into a rout of the Democrats.

And I see no way to reach the people who will make it so. If they aren't swayed by seeing Trump's actions and the Republicans Party's continued support for that, what would convince them there's a danger here?

 

[caseyedwards]

If you vote Republican at this point, you are voting for Trumpism. So if “stopping the Biden agenda” is your priority, that’s fine, but you are effectively voting for Trumpism. (and in 2024, most likely for Trump himself.)

No you actually aren’t. Ryan and McConnell banned trumps ideas for walls only passing more Obama fencing and voter id laws precede trump and they banned him removing sanctions on Russia. Republicans in DC only passed tax cuts and that’s it. There is not anything you can say republicans did that was Trump! What was trump?

Romney Baker hogan kasich even Cindy McCain could Easily get the Republican nomination in 2024 but they have to run and not complain and whine like they did in 2020

 

[clairecloutier]

My husband still has a Ridin' with Biden bumper sticker on his car. Today when he was out running errands, some right-wing jerk started honking at him and shouting out the car window about how Biden isn't doing anything and that my husband is a moron and an idiot for supporting him. He even got out of his car when they were stopped at a traffic light to continue the rant. And this, in supposedly blue Massachusetts.

These people are nuts. And they're everywhere ....

 

[MacMadame]

My husband still has a Ridin' with Biden bumper sticker on his car. Today when he was out running errands, some right-wing jerk started honking at him and shouting out the car window about how Biden isn't doing anything and that my husband is a moron and an idiot for supporting him. He even got out of his car when they were stopped at a traffic light to continue the rant. And this, in supposedly blue Massachusetts.

These people are nuts. And they're everywhere ....

People are so angry and also entitled and it's a bad combination.

 

[clairecloutier]

Interesting piece here that provides some details about Pramila Jayapal and how she's helped build up the House Progressive Caucus.

Opinion | Pramila Jayapal Won’t Let the Biden Presidency Fail

In the infrastructure negotiations, the leader of the House progressive caucus has shown a willingness to play hardball.

www.nytimes.com

 

[once_upon]

People are so angry and also entitled and it's a bad combination.

I am really worried about how the rising costs of everything is going to affect 2022 elections.

When I finally blocked a couple of Trump supporters during the 2020 elections just about every single thing they were predicting is coming true; rising gas prices, rising energy costs, lack of affordable housing, lack of supplies, their kids unable to have the middle class standard of living etc.

Now, I understand the reasons why that us occurring, and DH and I certainly are doing ok, but I am concerned about the people who aren't ok, the rising numbers of homelessness, the rising cost of living, and how Biden can change the trajectory of these changes.

Like you say, people are angry. Looking for someone promising to return America to an economy that they see works for them. 2022 will depend on Biden being able to get people help. He has less than a year to retain support of the independent and cross over GOP voters.

People are angry. (*please I know that many of the issues are pan*demic related, are GOP related, are supply related. I know that - they don't)

 

[clairecloutier]

Lack of affordable housing and people’s kids struggling to have middle class standard of living were problems that existed well before the Biden administration. And shortages are in no way due to the Biden administration.

But, it’s fruitless to point any of this out. why do people blame the Biden Administration for all their problems? Because they want to. Not because it’s reality.

Parents are already seeing more cash per month with the child tax credit changes. If Biden’s Build Back Better plan passes, people would start to see lower costs for preschool, parental leave, community college, and seniors’ vision/dental expenses. All that would be tangible financial help. Maybe it would help convince some true independents. I don’t think it would make much difference to most Republicans.

 

[once_upon]

Lack of affordable housing and people’s kids struggling to have middle class standard of living were problems that existed well before the Biden administration. And shortages are in no way due to the Biden administration.

But, it’s fruitless to point any of this out. why do people blame the Biden Administration for all their problems? Because they want to. Not because it’s reality.

Parents are already seeing more cash per month with the child tax credit changes. If Biden’s Build Back Better plan passes, people would start to see lower costs for preschool, parental leave, community college, and seniors’ vision/dental expenses. All that would be tangible financial help. Maybe it would help convince some true independents. I don’t think it would make much difference to most Republicans.

An example of how people will see the things that help you is how one person who assists those receiving Medicare said in a TV interview.

Your Medicare premium will go up with the Biden driven cost of living of 5.9 % to your Social Security. Under Trump it was much less and not as big of an impact like this one.

It's true your Medicare premiums are calculated by your income. I'm not sure how much of an impact it will have, but this is a bunch of scare tactic and blaming.

 

[Susan1]

Tucker Carlson Offers Most Insincere Response To Pete Buttigieg Attack Backlash

The Fox News personality offered a fake apology following criticism of his homophobic and misogynistic remark about the transportation secretary.

www.yahoo.com

 

[Dobre]

I paid $500+ for a month's worth of groceries this month. (Up about $100 from last month & that is probably due to Halloween candy + yummier things on my grocery list). But it does lead one to point out that all of those other benefits are helpful, but not everyone benefits from them.

I'm currently paying $200-$350 more a month for groceries than I was before the pandemic. Part of this price spike happened immediately last March. I first noticed it the day everyone was cramming the stores. Also, my grocery bill is up because I'm no longer doing my normal shopping in the big supermarkets, due to covid. (Small rural grocers pay more due to extra delivery expenses). And I'm also paying more because I'm not going to my parents' house over the weekends. These are my choices & I hope temporary ones.

But I do think it's important to recognize that some things are on everyone's bill every month. Everyone pays for food & it's not optional.

 

[ballettmaus]

Your Medicare premium will go up with the Biden driven cost of living of 5.9 % to your Social Security. Under Trump it was much less and not as big of an impact like this one.

The thing is, it's still a direct result of how Trump handled the p*ndemic. There sure are some short term effects in the economy but there are also a lot of longterm effects and this is one (and the media needs to do a better job of pointing that out but that's not new and not specific to US media). If Trump had handled the p*ndemic better, if he'd taken YKW seriously and if he hadn't caused vaccines to become such a controversial issue, the impact would not have been as severe. (Additionally, a lot of corportations are probably taking advantage of the situation as well; do gas prices really need to be that expensive, for example? Back in March, I came across reports that billionaires got more than 50% richer. Recently, I read that America's richest people got around 40% richer. It seems that a lot of inflation is articifial and not necessary. Also a point that I think the media needs to explore and Democrats need to include in their messaging but not in a way that sounds like an excuse).

 

[clairecloutier]

Our food bills are up substantially too. I am a little shocked at how much we spend. Even if I go into the store planning to get just 4 or 5 items, of course I always get a couple more, and soon the bill is $75 or $80 ...

I'm not sure what the federal government can do about it. The Biden Administration encouraging the Port of Los Angeles to work longer hours for the time being is a start (i.e., to help smooth out the shipping delays that help lead to shortages/higher prices). Ultimately, as discussed in a supply-chain article that I think I posted in the CV19 forum (https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/interactive/2021/supply-chain-issues/?itid=hp-top-table-main), our ports need to invest in more modern technology to help them better manage the flow of ships into the ports. Maybe the government could help there; and also with perhaps other technology initiatives to improve goods shipping in this country.

Rising grocery prices is definitely a problem that hits everyone. Politically, I'm not sure what the answer is.

 

[ballettmaus]

Manchin wants the child tax credit to be cut off at a family income of $60,000. I think it's safe to say, this man is not worried about the current inflation of groceries. https://www.axios.com/scoop-manchin...editorial&utm_content=politics-childtaxcredit

Rising grocery prices is definitely a problem that hits everyone. Politically, I'm not sure what the answer is.

Republicans shouldn't complain. That's (part of) the capitalism they're so fond of.

 

[DORISPULASKI]

One problem with income cutoffs is that they require a bureaucratic operation that can cost as much as the money it is attempting to save.

The bureaucracy creates a huge paper nightmare that keeps a lot of people from getting help they really need. In the extreme case, If you have no regular income, how do you prove that? Let's consider a couple ways people with no jobs might make money? Receipts from odd jobs or recycling bottles or begging? Keeping detailed books to prove how much you made in those endeavors? A bureaucracy to check those records? Craziness.

Another problem is that these cutoffs create resentment, which lead to the program being whittled away to very little help, with more and more money sustaining a bureaucracy to keep "unworthy" people from collecting and less and less going to help children. (How would you feel if you made $60,002.00?)

Social Security continues to exist exactly because it is not means tested. We should learn a lesson from that.

 

[Louis]

I'm firmly with Manchin on this one.

Doris, I understand your points, but:
1) Social Security tax is a ring-fenced tax withheld on only the first $147k of income, with guaranteed benefits that everyone gets regardless of familial status. Child tax credits are funded out of tax on all income, and the childless don't get anything.
2) With every credit I've seen in the US tax code, there is a phase-out period so that earning additional income is not punitive. Someone earning $60,002 would get 99 percent or more of the credit. The phase-out period would probably run until $75k, I'd guess.
3) Calculation of the credit, and any amount due back, can be added to people's annual tax return. No additional bureaucracy required.

You know what else creates resentment? Asking the childless to pay even more than we already do for people's kids, including rich people's kids. The tax code is already written to give so many breaks to "families." I have no problem targeting families with legitimate needs, which is exactly what Manchin is doing. However, I don't give a flying fcuk if wealthy Westchester liberals are screaming "woe is me" because they need to pay 10 percent more at the Whole Foods. My strong suspicion is that the Democratic party writes legislation to benefit exactly those relatively wealthy people, who are their fundraising base. Manchin and Sinema are refocusing the problem on the true need, and kudos to them.

 

[clairecloutier]

OMG. I didn’t realize I was living in a “family” ….

So much with the above post, just too much to even start with at such an early point in the morning … But the clear resentment of kids and “families” sure stands out. I was a childless taxpayer adult for 20 years myself and I don’t remember ever feeling that kind of bitterness.

Neither Manchin nor Sinema have any idea what it’s like trying to raise kids on a combined family income of $60K a year. That would be a tough task even in West Virginia (although I guess apparently easy in Westchester, where everyone is wealthy, LMAO).

The numbers that Manchin/Sinema are demanding in regard to this bill aren’t based on any type of research or even policy objectives. They’re numbers that the 2 of them are choosing simply because they sound good and, in this case, indicate their clear opposition to safety net benefits by cutting them off at a very low point. Manchin in particular is living in some kind of alternate universe where things cost what they did in 1990.

 

[ЭPiKUilyam]

But, it’s fruitless to point any of this out. why do people blame the Biden Administration for all their problems? Because they want to. Not because it’s reality.

I think the Trump years, especially the C19 year, got Americans used to NEWS!!!!! every minute, every hour. And yes, with Trump he was tweeting outrageous things seemingly every damn day. I think we/I just got conditioned to thinking that EVERY DAY is a problem/crisis looming. Now that Biden has gone back to the 'regular' behavior of a President and is not announcing his every thought every waking minute on social media/Twitter, we think that the Biden administration is not doing anything. Biden is. I am very satisfied with his performance as President so far. He's getting things done, despite the daily/hourly barking from rightwing news. (and also mainstream too, since they are used to a crisis every day like with Trump and enjoy the 'hits' on their news articles).