Russian women news & updates, 2021-22 season

love_skate2011

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3,597
Vash, out of all the skaters from across the world that you've watched this year, who do you think can beat Valieva if she's on? Trusova perhaps, but who else? And what if Trusova doesn't have the 3A for the short program in Beijing?
Trusova wont come close Not just with her PCS, Trusova has no triple axel, even if Trusova jumps 5 quads will be outscored by Kamilas 3 quads and triple axel, if Kamila adds another triple axel no one can catch her if shes on, the closest will be Anna if she gets back both her 4Lz and 4F in the FS, Anna needs at least 3 quads and one in combo.
 

Tobbe

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Messages
173
Vash, out of all the skaters from across the world that you've watched this year, who do you think can beat Valieva if she's on? Trusova perhaps, but who else? And what if Trusova doesn't have the 3A for the short program in Beijing?
Yes, it looks like it is in Kamila's hands right now. Trusova, if she's on, might challenge her in the free but I don't think it's enough. I would say that Shcherbakova has a bigger chance, but she needs her 3 quads back and be absolutely super clean.
 

love_skate2011

Well-Known Member
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3,597
Yes, it looks like it is in Kamila's hands right now. Trusova, if she's on, might challenge her in the free but I don't think it's enough. I would say that Shcherbakova has a bigger chance, but she needs her 3 quads back and be absolutely super clean.
why do people keep thinking Trusova can challenge ? It has already been shown here by numbers that even her 5 quads wont be enough, and yes she has never landed a 5 quad in a real competition, practice test skate is not counted. Shcerbakova keeps getting ignored but shes tenacious even with that shiny ice puddle fall from her quad entry in France.
 

rfisher

Let the skating begin
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70,007
It is really going to be an interesting nationals. In theory, Valieva and Tuk have the SP advantage having a 3A (Trusova may or may not attempt it at Nationals). Valieva has the 3A and 3 quads in the FS. Anna has 2 and maybe 3 and she's a fierce competitor at nationals which cannot be ignored. Trusova has the potential of a monster FS score with 5 quads. Sadly, Liza will have to depend on one of these three to falter to have a chance even with 2 3A in the FS. Just for handicapping purposes, Kostornaia might have a 3A or two. If she managed to land them, she'd probably outscore Tuk with SS marks. But, I think that's a pretty long shot. She doesn't have Anna's nerve, Liza's experience, Valieva's talent or Trusova's desire to skate competitively with the men. Not the Russian men, but Chen, Hanyu and Uno. So, there are a number of ways this can play out. But, three of them will move on to the Olympics once the proverbial dust settles. And, I will be broken hearted for the 2 who stay home.
 

Vash01

Fan of Yuzuru, Three A's, T&M, P&C
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52,556
Vash, out of all the skaters from across the world that you've watched this year, who do you think can beat Valieva if she's on? Trusova perhaps, but who else? And what if Trusova doesn't have the 3A for the short program in Beijing?
Olympic pressure is unlike any other pressure. That is why I am not taking anything for granted. Anna and Sasha are both capable of beating her if she misses the 3A in the SP. That levels the field for the LP. I don't see Sasha getting a consistent 3A before the Olympics, so I am not counting on that.

If Sasha doesn't make the team, Liza is the likely candidate, but she will need to land all her jumps and hope that Kamila misses the 3A in both SP and LP. I don't see Liza beating her Even if Kamila misses the 3A.

I don't see a nonRussian beating Kamila. They just don't have the base marks. So if Kamila loses it will be to one of her teammates.

Personally I would hate to see yet another 15 year old win the OGM, but if she delivers when it counts, so be it.
 

Scott512

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613
I just don’t see that potential with Alina anymore. Her last season showed us that she was no longer one of the top Russian girls. She wouldn’t be in the mix today. She was getting the Olympic champion bonus points before the 3A overtook her, and then the federation no longer needed to back and push her. We’ve seen it all happen before, and it’s happening now.

Kamila is without a doubt going to be the Olympic champion. Kamila has it all and I don’t see anyone beating her unless she can’t handle the pressure.
I feel the same way about Valieva but she still has Grand Prix final then Russian nationals then European's Olympics and worlds it's a lot for a 15 year old no matter how special she is.. If she wins the Olympics they'd better pull her from worlds same with Anna or sasha or Liza if they somehow win the Olympic gold. I would even consider pulling KV from European's depending how close it is to the Olympics.

Zagitova won everything by the age of 16 her desire waned and that showed in her skating.
 

hanca

Values her privacy
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12,091
Vash, out of all the skaters from across the world that you've watched this year, who do you think can beat Valieva if she's on? Trusova perhaps, but who else? And what if Trusova doesn't have the 3A for the short program in Beijing?
You are assuming that she will be on. Lipnitskaya has shown us what happens when one gets nervous. Lipnitskaya had the whole season strong, olympic team event strong both programs, and then suddenly individual event and she didn’t managed her nerves. Valieva is exactly the same age. She may look unbeatable when she is clean, but this will be the competition of her lifetime, will she manage the nerves or not?
 

tony

But it just doesn't fcuking glide
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11,818
You are assuming that she will be on. Lipnitskaya has shown us what happens when one gets nervous. Lipnitskaya had the whole season strong, olympic team event strong both programs, and then suddenly individual event and she didn’t managed her nerves. Valieva is exactly the same age. She may look unbeatable when she is clean, but this will be the competition of her lifetime, will she manage the nerves or not?
I believe my exact wording (oh look, it was) was 'if she's on'. I clarified that. Also, the post Vash replied to (and to which I quoted Vash) stated 'unless she can't handle the pressure'.

None of us is stating that she is going to skate a perfect competition.
 

Vash01

Fan of Yuzuru, Three A's, T&M, P&C
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Right now the odds are in Kamila's favor, but they are still the odds. Surprises do happen. Remember 2002. Who would have predicted anyone other than Kwan or Slutskaya would win the gold? I know the probability of Kamila losing is low but it is not negligible.
 

Tobbe

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173
Right now the odds are in Kamila's favor, but they are still the odds. Surprises do happen. Remember 2002. Who would have predicted anyone other than Kwan or Slutskaya would win the gold? I know the probability of Kamila losing is low but it is not negligible.
2002 is not a good comparison, as it has the most questionable Olympic judging ever imo. But let's not bring out that old can of worms...:yikes::COP::wuzrobbed :skandal
 

rfisher

Let the skating begin
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Well, they've got to get past Nationals and Euros first. Then barring a total melt down, which I don't think likely, a Russian woman will be a threepeat OGM. It could be any of the 3 who are on the team because there aren't any other skaters close to them.
 

Tobbe

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173
I think it will be very interesting to see how the GPF goes. It will be like a prelude to Nationals and it's the first time that Anna competes against Liza and Kamila this season.

And meanwhile, Sasha is sitting at home sharpening her quad skates for Nationals...:D
 

Spun Silver

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2002 is not a good comparison, as it has the most questionable Olympic judging ever imo. But let's not bring out that old can of worms...:yikes::COP::wuzrobbed :skandal
OK, 2006 then. How many predicted Arakawa would win? Real Q as I was a new skating fan back then and missed the leadup gossip. I was only on Sasha's fan site at the time IIRC.
 

mtnskater

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2,243
I really like Kamila’s overall skating and amazing jumping. She has more of the full package…spins, style, speed and great jumps. And I consider her the heavy favorite for the gold. That said, I’m more impressed that Tuk can do a consistent triple axel at age 24. Truthfully, I’m not really thrilled with the idea of another 15 year old Olympic champion. I have a feeling Kamila will win and go the way of Zagitova. I’d like the ISU to raise the senior age to 16 going forward just like gymnastics has.
 

tony

But it just doesn't fcuking glide
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11,818
My recollection of 2006 was that Slutskaya was the favourite, but that she, Cohen, Arakawa were really close going into the event.
No, I don't think many people considered Arakawa in the picture based on the previous season and a half that she'd had. But I remember her landing a 3+3+3 in practice and all of a sudden the attention was on her once again. She won medals on the GP but with programs that weren't anything special (dumped both by Torino), and she was only 3rd at Nationals behind Suguri and Asada (who had been riding the wave of hype that year winning the GPF).

ETA- Asada, Nakano, and Ando all made the GPF and Suguri won Nationals. I think a lot of people weren't thinking much about Arakawa's chances until those first practices.
 

skatingguy

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10,272
No, I don't think many people considered Arakawa in the picture based on the previous season and a half that she'd had. But I remember her landing a 3+3+3 in practice and all of a sudden the attention was on her once again. She won medals on the GP but with programs that weren't anything special (dumped both by Torino), and she was only 3rd at Nationals behind Suguri and Asada (who had been riding the wave of hype that year winning the GPF).
I thought by the start of the short program Arakawa was in the conversation for the podium.
 

Coco

Rotating while Russian!
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@Spun Silver Turin was strange, as I recall Sasha had a horrible fall season in 2005. Irina was coming off her epic win at 2005 Worlds but was competing a lot, despite her health, and her programs weren't as good as the season before. I believe Shizuka also had a rough fall season,too and then a coaching change.

Mao Asada was skating on the GP, but was too young for the Games. I know she beat Sasha, and she may have beaten the other two medalists as well.

So there were lots of things up in the air heading into those Olympics. I don't remember anyone being an out and out favorite. Irina was probably the closest thing to a favorite.
 

tony

But it just doesn't fcuking glide
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Mao Asada was skating on the GP, but was too young for the Games. I know she beat Sasha, and she may have beaten the other two medalists as well.
All three medalists. She beat Arakawa in both GP regular season events, beat Cohen in France, and beat Slutskaya in the Final after losing to her in China.
 

Spun Silver

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No parallel will be exact because history is unrepeatable. But there is certainly evidence to show the Olympics are often unpredictable. (Go Anna!)
 

Skibean

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I think fans knew it’s was a possibility since Arawaka was always in the mix. She had previously won Worlds, and Hughes wasn’t exactly a shock either. Hughes had already defeated both Kwan and Slutskaya at Skate Canada.
So no real shockers there.
 

Vash01

Fan of Yuzuru, Three A's, T&M, P&C
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My recollection of 2006 was that Slutskaya was the favourite, but that she, Cohen, Arakawa were really close going into the event.
IIRC the previous year Arakawa placed 9th at Worlds. Slute and Cohen were co-favorites for the OGM. I don't think Shizuka was far back but I dont think she was a co-Favorite, until after the SP.
 

euterpe

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Kamila is a beautiful skater and she will no doubt be the Olympic champion. But like the last two Russian OGMs, in 3 years, she will be a misty memory, having gone through puberty like her predecessors and outgrown her jumps. People will be talking about the 2026 Olympic champion-to-be.

Oh, and BTW: the purpose of being thin in figure skating (at least at SAMBO) is to stave off puberty as long as possible, even at the cost of poor nutrition and brittle bones.
 

Coco

Rotating while Russian!
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I feel like KV has gotten significantly taller in the past 18 months. Does anyone know?
 

tony

But it just doesn't fcuking glide
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Kamila is a beautiful skater and she will no doubt be the Olympic champion. But like the last two Russian OGMs, in 3 years, she will be a misty memory, having gone through puberty like her predecessors and outgrown her jumps. People will be talking about the 2026 Olympic champion-to-be.
I don't really get it. Lipinski decided to go pro after her Olympic win and people were bitching endlessly about how she was afraid to lose to Kwan again. Hughes tries to stay in and people rip apart her 6th place effort at Worlds the next year ('why would she ever stay in?!') and one has even recently said she showed up there looking lazy because of her hair :lol:

Some skaters want to stick with the sport and keep expanding, some want to win it all and then they aren't challenged enough anymore and/or want to move on. Maybe some don't want constant scrutiny over everything they do and want to go a different direction in life. But whatever choice they make, there will be a subset of a fandom demanding that they made the wrong decision somehow.

This whole evolution of sport isn't a Russian-exclusive tendency, and it's not a figure skating-exclusive either. Football players have their primes and then may not even be starters after two or three years. College kids may come in and push them right out. Same with baseball, and we all know it's the same story with gymnastics.
Oh, and BTW: the purpose of being thin in figure skating (at least at SAMBO) is to stave off puberty as long as possible, even at the cost of poor nutrition and brittle bones.
Who has stated that this is the purpose and where are the facts behind all of these constant claims on this board? Trusova and Vaileva both have muscular builds and those two are leading the way technically into Beijing.
 

canbelto

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7,188
Kamila is a beautiful skater and she will no doubt be the Olympic champion. But like the last two Russian OGMs, in 3 years, she will be a misty memory, having gone through puberty like her predecessors and outgrown her jumps. People will be talking about the 2026 Olympic champion-to-be.

Oh, and BTW: the purpose of being thin in figure skating (at least at SAMBO) is to stave off puberty as long as possible, even at the cost of poor nutrition and brittle bones.

Kamila has gone through puberty. She's around 5'3" and has clearly defined waist, hips, and chest. She doesn't look pre-pubescenet at all.
 

Lilia A

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And meanwhile, Sasha is sitting at home sharpening her quad skates for Nationals...
Given her injury, I don't know that we'll see many quads from her this year. I hope I'm wrong, but stress fractures don't heal overnight (they also don't occur overnight; I'm almost certain she already had something going on during the test skates)

No, I don't think many people considered Arakawa in the picture based on the previous season and a half that she'd had.
Agreed. I love her, but I had kind of given up on her after the 2004/2005 season. I thought she had a shot at the podium, but I didn't see her win coming (I was happy though, very, very happy).

I feel like KV has gotten significantly taller in the past 18 months. Does anyone know?
She's not any taller that Shcherbakova and I believe she's slightly shorter than Trusova. She's grown since her first junior season, but not much since this time last year. If you look at these three girls together, you'll see they're similar in height. If you look at them individually, Kamila looks much taller because she's all legs.
 

4rkidz

plotting, planning and travelling
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13,184
Kamila was technically amazing when i watched her live at Skate Canada but she still has room to grow artistically, she is still a bit ‘paint by numbers’, not free flowing. But still head and shoulders above the rest. Elizaveta oozes artistry, she projects to the audience, but she is slow as molasses. I just hope that after this season Kamilla continues to skate and grow artistically.
 

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